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Michael's  Personal Profile View my company profile

Michael Riley
Michael Riley
Agent first, innovator second, property market trend spotter third.
3716  Profile Views

About Me

Old school agent with nerdy knowhow.

Michael has been an agent since 1994 and is the former Head of Residential Sales for Savills, A Head of Operations for Romans in the Thames Valley and former member of the British Sailing Team.

"If you cut him in half, it would say Romans through the middle"

my expertise in the industry

First agent in UK to earn a £1million in commission working remotely.

Romans Estate Agents 1994 - 2007
Savills 2007 - 2008
Founded (2009) boutique hybrid estate agency Capital & Coastal.

Founded UKpropertysearch.co.uk 1996 Sold
Founded Byehome.com 1999 Sold
Founded Bambooavenue.com 2000 Lost the lot!

Acquired Hamiltons Estate Agent and Lettings Agents July 2015. (Sold Hamiltons Lettings and Property Management 31st October 2017). 108% ROI in 27 months.

Michael's Recent Activity

Michael Riley
Its a poor reflection of our industry that it takes a pandemic to get the majority to have the tech in place for remote working and virtual " live stream" style walk throughs for consumers. But, when your busy stuffing leaflets through doors offering free valuations and tweaking rightmove for a slightly better outcome, there's not much time left I guess.

From: Michael Riley 02 April 2020 09:05 AM

Michael Riley
Sounds remarkable :), where do I sign?

From: Michael Riley 27 March 2020 05:06 AM

Michael Riley
Interesting, but a bit pointless, given each country is at a different stage in the corona cycle with US, Australia and Sweden (the latter still sending kids to school and going to work) someway behind UK. Its not a great comparison to do right now. Its highly likely the other global portals will amend their prices further, as the pandemic takes hold in their local markets. It would also be interesting to plot prices rises followed by the discounts. Its a lot easier to drop 75% if its preceded by many price increases. In other words the non UK portals may not have had as much room to fall. Who knows, i'm just a lowly estate agent, not a clever analyst. The mistake UK agencies made was to stop complaining. They might have dropped even further or maybe EAT has had a nasty legal letter and now decided to axe coverage and start putting out more positive messages. Its odd how virtually every article was about the price war and agency revolt and then it suddenly stopped.

From: Michael Riley 26 March 2020 06:19 AM

Michael Riley
Is there a feature on the Iphone to block out the stacks of loo roll in each room?

From: Michael Riley 24 March 2020 06:24 AM

Michael Riley
Before Rightmove existed 20 years ago, few in our industry knew what a "portal" was. The dominating organisations of the future are similarly unknown at the moment. Even the founders of them probably dont know their companies full potential. I don't know what name it is..... but one thing I do know, it will not be known as a portal..... because all of these things are just "better mousetraps" and real change doesn't look like that. Rightmove was not a "better mousetrap" it was a whole new thing.

From: Michael Riley 22 March 2020 19:19 PM

Michael Riley
Actually it will be the opposite, deep technology will be far far greater at selecting candiates than a human. We have a host of cognitive bias that even the most intelligent people struggle to balance. For example we tend to employ people like ourselves, or a certain race or gender. Or based upon some other spurious measure, well so and so had these traits, so this candiate must be good. Overlooking subtle differences in data. Estate agency is particularly poor at recruitment. In many cases it functions on high volume of candiates with a sink or swim mentality. The industry also has a rigid infrastructure/process bias. We force people to attend morning meetings (at Romans that was 8.15) and be in the office at allsorts of times. It might be that the very best potential agents are weeded out because they don't fit with this sort of working. For example, Billy from Scotland might be the best negotiator in the world, but he's not working for you, because your process cant capture that, with machines you will be able to. Great agencies will realise that the best people might not look like, be located near or want to work to the restrictive schedules and therefore adapt. Recruitment and onboarding in our industry is utterly abysmal in many cases and something we should be embarrassed by. Lastly, without going "full nerd" this isn't AI its more likely to be Predictive Analytics.

From: Michael Riley 20 March 2020 07:40 AM

Michael Riley
Great to see EAT doing this. I'm interested to hear from agent's (not agencies) how their employers react to this. Is it better to be in a large company or small in these times? Large organisations tend to not stop banging on about how big they are (Keller Williams) but are these empty words in times of crisis. Who provides the best financial umbrella for their agents? Big or small.

From: Michael Riley 17 March 2020 02:53 AM

Michael Riley
I sympathise with these agencies. If you are thinking of doing the same, an alternative use of the time spent requesting a payment holiday (which is about as likely to happen as Lemsip sales going down right now) would be to communicate to buyers and sellers with A) clear instructions of how you will manage viewings on clients homes to maximise chance of sale during the outbreak and minimise risk to all. B) Clarity on how the office will function. C) Social proof of other deals that are happening and number of people viewing, offering and moving. More extreme measures to get cashflow moving to consider.... D) presenting a pay upfront offer to homes already on the market with you (and others) giving a hefty discount. "Bad news for us Mrs Seller, great news for you." The result may surprise you. Be VERY clear with the seller that this is pay regardless of sale and take some legal advice on your TOB. But its basically a PB model. E) 7.5 percent commission discount on any high value deals that have exchanged but are more than 6 weeks to completion. In the past I offered a 5% discount on bills more than £10k with delayed completions of more than two months and half the clients would pay on exchange rather than completion, which in some cases was many months away. Having said all that, this is the moment that the great agencies and agents wait for. If your one of those, lean in, get creative and enjoy every moment your competitors spend time moaning about what they can't influence. Great agents make markets and are well prepared to take advantage of competitors who are financially weak or clueless or scared. If your only now working out what to do, your probably not one of them. But at least you will have a plan for next time external factors zig when you thought they would zag.

From: Michael Riley 13 March 2020 03:32 AM

Michael Riley
What are the chances Axel Springer will go "all in" on PB and buy up the remaining shares?

From: Michael Riley 13 March 2020 02:03 AM

Michael Riley
No worse than petty agencies say about each other most days of the week. Do they think the consumer hasn't heard the "all the others agengies are rubbish, so use us were great" line before? As for their ad. Strapline most decent agents will help their clients neg. on their next house.... so not sure thats big news either and at worst a conflict of interest if their client is buying and selling through Nested. The future.... does not look like this.

From: Michael Riley 12 March 2020 07:09 AM

Michael Riley
The phase of "growth at any cost" is going to start to fade rapidly in a post coronavirus era. Until one of the big global portals proves a diversification strategy that doesnt burn $xm a month, RMs strategy is spot on.

From: Michael Riley 10 March 2020 05:45 AM

Michael Riley
OTM has never been an alternative. Its a clone and clones dont tend to do very well (just ask Dolly the sheep). The only questions worth asking are, what problem does OTM actually solve, is that in the top three priorities on a persons todo list and does that person get fired for not solving it (thats your customer with a strong need). The simple fact is OTM doesn't solve a big problem for agencies and they do nothing for the consumer. RM fees are mildly annoying but remarkably good value for the vast majority of agencies, many of whom would struggle to compete without it. No one is going to get fired if that doesnt get sorted and most agencies have bigger daily issues to worry about than solving it. If OTM had the balls they would have had a no other portal policy, be on OTM exclusively. They didnt because they knew agencies wouldnt buy into that because their value proposition has never been strong enough. Not being distinctive and having a point of difference means they have and will always be in the dark shadow of Zoopla and RM. It takes a very bright light to step out of that. Which is something that OTM has never been and their appalling Chas and Dave themed adverts are yet another example of. I'm sorry for the team that work on it and the agencies that hoped it might shake things up, but that's the truth of it and has been since the beginning.

From: Michael Riley 10 March 2020 05:20 AM

Michael Riley
Hope for the best and plan for the worst ( lock down of your town).

From: Michael Riley 09 March 2020 07:41 AM

Michael Riley
David's can beat Goliath's, if they know where to aim.

From: Michael Riley 05 March 2020 07:00 AM

Michael Riley
Hi Rollo, thanks for the offer, why not publish answers here and then the other 4000 readers can have the benefit too? Just a thought.

From: Michael Riley 04 March 2020 23:07 PM

Michael Riley
Here are some questions to ask when talking to these type of companies and also do your research. Do you support me financially whilst I'm building my sales pipeline? If not, why not? Where do the leads come from when I have bombarded the low hanging fruit of my friends and family network? Excluding Rightmove and Zoopla, what % of the hubs % goes to marketing the brand? Who deals with my clients, if at somepoint, I need a holiday, or I'm unwell? Do you publish what number of agents start with you and are still there 3,6,12 months later? (Do a search on linkedin and reach out to the ones who are or have worked in that hub. Most will be really insightful.) If its a self employed model ask them what their plans are around IR35 rules (and read up on some articles yourself). If they are forced by HMRC to pay a huge tax bill, which threatens the company that owns the hub, do you still get your commission, before or after that happens. Does the customer pay you and you then pay the hub or the other way around? ( Who exactly is holding the cash, if they go down.) I am hugely pro the agent getting paid more of the fee, but this part of the market is like the wild west at the moment and agents should be very wary about who they get into bed with. No matter what your current employer is like, be careful not to jump from the frying pan into the fire. Other than that good luck!

From: Michael Riley 04 March 2020 06:26 AM

Michael Riley
I say well done Vic. I'd rather hear from someone whose actually doing something about the future than yet another interview with an industry pundit or non-agent banging on about the changes that they are predicting but no real clue what that is going to look like or spade in the ground making it happen. PB will be the Countrywide of the future... a big unpivotable beast, churning through staff quicker than a blind butcher, but still struggling on like an overweight boxer who fancies their chances one last time.

From: Michael Riley 13 February 2020 06:15 AM

Michael Riley
Good article James.

From: Michael Riley 15 January 2020 07:51 AM

Michael Riley
Hubba Bubba.

From: Michael Riley 10 December 2019 11:04 AM

Michael Riley
We should never underestimate the power of marketing assets on the street. Whether its a branded office bang in the middle of the high street, or a board or a flyer in someones hand. There are many reasons why China constructs lots of buildings in other countries. One is because a physical presence really matters in business, defence and relationships. Estate agency is no different in that regard. That is not to say their cyber team isnt reading this comment!

From: Michael Riley 21 November 2019 05:53 AM

Michael Riley
It maybe a contrarian view, but I think RM provide exceptional value for money for the average agency. Small agencies benefit exponentially from listing there. The time to have had these conversations was twenty years ago when they launched. Now, its like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. The unintended consequences of a fee revolt could well be RM muddying the waters of their pricing structure through dismantling many more components of their service. Making it far more difficult to calculate ROI and probably push the overall price up. Their rention rate of agencies is 94 percent, until that slips substantially dont expect any change.

From: Michael Riley 19 November 2019 06:25 AM

Michael Riley
Good day to hide bad news.

From: Michael Riley 19 November 2019 06:14 AM

Michael Riley
I think he's bang on the money. It just wont look anything like Purplebricks having that market share.

From: Michael Riley 21 October 2019 08:27 AM

Michael Riley
Thanks for the comments. Monitoring customer churn is critical in many industries and an important part of the feedback loop. As an industry we could be better at asking for that and learn a lot of lessons about our businesses in the process.

From: Michael Riley 08 October 2019 17:29 PM

Michael Riley
Having sold a couple of properties recently and seen the market from the consumers side, Id say that most agencies promoted an award for one thing or another and dont get me started on reviews..... customer comments, testimonials and awards are no longer the differentiator they were. Lastly, out of the 45000 consumers mentioned here, how many were failed sellers? Thats the segment of customers as an industry we woefully overlook when getting feedback on service. Its like a holiday company leaving half its travellers stranded abroad and then asking for feedback from the ones who were returned home without a glitch. Massively misleading.

From: Michael Riley 08 October 2019 05:06 AM

Michael Riley
The numbers prove otherwise at a macro and micro level in the short, medium and long term. We are in a contracting market. But, you're obviously welcome to an opinion.

From: Michael Riley 01 October 2019 00:08 AM

Michael Riley
This overlooks the biggest reason the market had been contracting for years. That is buy to let landlords hold on to their properties when owner occupiers sell, as they go through their life cycle. This continued reduction in supply forces prices up in turn improving rents. Any change improvement to stamp duty is unlikely... but you can expect the government to get laser focused (oxymoron i know) on getting landlords to release their stock back to the market... that will most probably be in the form of contunued tax increases or a CGT amnesty for landlords selling up.

From: Michael Riley 30 September 2019 08:08 AM

Michael Riley
Interesting article James, thank you. I reckon there are many occasions in the UK when a property that needs a refurb. goes for more than its value should be. In some extreme cases even close to what it would sell for fixed up. Thats because unlike the US where in many areas they have an oversupply, we have acute shortages of homes. In fact, this is also an issue in the US and been highlighted by Zillow. So, to some extent Curbio is based upon a slightly flawed assumption. Curbio also suits the US better than the UK because a quarter of our housing stock is Victorian which makes accurate pricing of work more difficult due to unknown quantities. Lastly, I cant see one agency in a town starting to offer it, then their competitve position not being matched by the other agencies. But in summary, there are systemic flaws in our industry that lead to the comments in this article from Mumsnet. Minor evolutions like this are not going to result in the root and branch change that is needed. If your being asked to invest in a busines model like this.... keep your pounds in your pocket, the future does not look like this.

From: Michael Riley 25 September 2019 06:08 AM

Michael Riley
Surely a cravat is the answer. The upside is you'll be distinctive, comfortable and dashing. The downside is that in some rougher parts of town they may have some flowery language for you.

From: Michael Riley 30 August 2019 07:33 AM

Michael Riley
Foxtons is underpriced regardless of any change in stamp duty.

From: Michael Riley 12 July 2019 09:18 AM

Michael Riley
Does EAT need to a Twitter style character limit? Less = More

From: Michael Riley 04 July 2019 09:12 AM

Michael Riley
Delusion layered upon delusion. Emoov a Countrywide CWD savior, what a joke. Wasn't the Hero platform a peace of junk which couldnt even manage lpe's diary capacity or flag when house to sell buyers registered, sending that to the agents on the street? Wasn't the marketing fueled by horrendously expensive pay per click ppc expenditure which masked the utter lack of virality in the underlying business offering? Countrywide will be bought below asset value by someone who knows their stuff. They will leverage its great capacity by sorting out five or six key and uncomfortable decisions. In doing so, that company will rise rapidly from the ashes. If they had tied up with Emoov it would have been like a fragile grandmother, whose recently lost her late husband, starting to date a twentysomething crack addict, who thinks he can change the world. But actually he can barely get his foggy head out of bed and every time he does its for another bowl of cocopops and a can of redbull left over from last nights binge. Please EAT stop providing this drivel and lets hear from some people who actually know their stuff. (That doesnt mean another non agent proptech guru or agency that thinks they know all the answers, but has never sat in some seller's kitchen day after day, winning business and doing deals for proper fees.)

From: Michael Riley 09 June 2019 10:38 AM

Michael Riley
The US does have online agents on pay on result model, payupfront online agents (or classified ads as i prefer to call them) and Ibuyers. IBuyer services just about work in the US for three reasons... High frictional cost of real estate agent fee gives the Ibuyer a margin to play with as they deal with consumer direct. They dont have a quarter of their housing stock built over 120 years ago and can easily target very large areas of homes built less than 20 years ago, which are easier to price and mitigate the ibuyers risk. The likes of Zillow have pricing algorithms that have been running for years and years at scale that make the accuracy of our housing data look like someone just guessed a number and wrote it on a fag packet. Again mitigating risk of the ibuyer by making sure they purchase at a sensible price. Ibuyers wont get any real traction in the UK as a result of the above and if they do the investors behind it will be in for a very high risk high stakes ride, with amazingly low upside. Investors should keep their cash firmly in their pocket.

From: Michael Riley 05 June 2019 06:52 AM

Michael Riley
Im not close to Foxtons, but I whole heartedly admire the strength of the brand, class retail proposition and im pretty sure their tech isnt a bunch of Abacus' tied together with string. Money weeks article should have been written a couple of years ago.... to me Foxtons looks like a buy ( or soon will be). The market will get easier (especially in London), it always does and when that happens not many agents will be better placed to take advantage of it and monetize it.

From: Michael Riley 04 June 2019 07:11 AM

Michael Riley
I wonder if areas with very slow broadband are generally happier? It would explain the reason people move less frequently. Could it be that locations with very slow broad band are less likely to have an artisan bakery selling crushed avocado with free wifi, which has been proven to push prices up 24 %? Two thirds of all statistics are only 84% correct. But amazingly nearly 100% are quite dull to read about.

From: Michael Riley 24 May 2019 07:01 AM

Michael Riley
Post removed. I figured it was helping PB too much!

From: Michael Riley 21 May 2019 12:25 PM

Michael Riley
Its 441am. I was struggling to sleep, but this has done the trick. Night night.

From: Michael Riley 16 April 2019 04:42 AM

Michael Riley
Newsflash worthy?

From: Michael Riley 07 March 2019 08:27 AM

Michael Riley
Okidoki. So whats the bet then? Rightmove not the leading portal by when? Im happy with leading defined as a) visitor traffic b) turnover c) agent members.

From: Michael Riley 01 March 2019 20:30 PM

Michael Riley
Happy to have a friendly wager on Rmove being the leading portal in x years.

From: Michael Riley 01 March 2019 14:32 PM

Michael Riley
I appreciate I may be a lone voice on this... but ... Id say £1000 a month is remarkably good value for the vast majority of agents that use it. Like Apple, I dislike the way they are "sandbagging" the release of juicy new tech... but if I were them I'd do the same until competitors caught up. They take a lot of stick, but its a brilliantly run business, consistently serving agents and buyers at scale. They deserve all the profit they get.

From: Michael Riley 01 March 2019 08:08 AM

Michael Riley
Thank you for the repsonse. All sounds interesting and I look forward to seeing what traction it gets. Best of luck.

From: Michael Riley 28 February 2019 08:49 AM

Michael Riley
Free text search is hardly new.. Tulia launched in the US with it over a decade ago. It sounds like a good idea, but actually just confuses buyers who dont like the ambiguity. The key with all portals is how they generate the traffic, not how they get the listings. So, it will be interesting to see what the plan for that is.... If i recall other portal sites that scraped agents websites had appaling quality control without of date listings etc. But good luck, sounds interesting.

From: Michael Riley 28 February 2019 07:14 AM

Michael Riley
What a great initiative. Well done Hamptons....... this has the potential to help change how the public view agency..... wouldnt it be great that wherever the public see an estate agency they could refil a bottle or use the loo.... Having said that most of agents loos Ive seen have been like something out of trainspotting, so maybe some quality control is needed!

From: Michael Riley 25 February 2019 09:24 AM

Michael Riley
Would a ban mean that a high street office and therefore "brand on the ground" has more value?

From: Michael Riley 15 February 2019 05:50 AM

Michael Riley
Plausible, but so is Berkshire Hathaway as a buyer. Savills brand and position would be right up Mr Buffet's street.

From: Michael Riley 15 February 2019 05:47 AM

Michael Riley
Which video in the series do we need to watch where the CEO takes responsibility for a poorly conceived and executed idea? I whole heartedly disagree with EAT about RQ being like Marmite in that he divides opinion. Marmite,is unqiuely different to this, in that regardless of whether it is liked by everyone, the brown spread is highly successful. Lets have some talent giving interviews in our industry.... Lets have Jon Hunt (Foxtons founder) or Tony Pidgley (Berkeley Homes).... people who know their stuff, are worth listening to and built impressive (profitable) businesses from scratch. PS EAT Any reason why the news from over a week ago about PB changing their business model in the US hasnt been written about? I would have thought a few people might be interested in that.

From: Michael Riley 09 February 2019 10:54 AM

Michael Riley
Could it actually be fresh 2019 stock plus a lot of old dogs that didnt sell Q4 2018 being relisted?

From: Michael Riley 06 February 2019 05:34 AM

Michael Riley
Those who can do, those who cant teach. Our industry press and linkedin are full of people who fundementally have no experience of actually running a profitable, well managed estate agency or even been an agent in some cases. Its remarkable how much airtime they get. Whenever someone predicts something I ask... what have you correctly predicted in the past or done successfully and profitability over a long period. Foxtons group earnings are down from 118m to 111m. I'd say thats pretty impressive given the market in London. Their strategy is totally correct and diluting outside London would be a mistake now as it was before. Its still a well managed business with management not afraid of making strong decisions. Lastly..... the more agents that turn into 'hubs' the stronger the ones left on the high street become. Foxtons have class retail assets, they will benefit from their weaker competitors withdrawal to cyberspace.

From: Michael Riley 05 February 2019 08:09 AM

Michael Riley
Group turnover down from £118m to £111m. Given the kicking the London market has received I'd say this is a pretty impressive result.

From: Michael Riley 31 January 2019 08:13 AM

Michael Riley
One thing is for sure, you dont beat well entrenched competitors by being a me too or a basic evolution of the encumbents service. As this article notes their are plenty of casualties from attempts to attack RM head on. Rightmoves strengths are its weakness and sometime soon their entire business will be threatened by a change that no one would have predicted. How they deal with that will determine if they survive. Few highly focused business handle massive change very well, as they are too busy covering their existing business to see the wood for the trees..... see Kodak. They should be rapidly incubating challenger models to cannibalize themselves and the investment in this should be under a totally independent body, so existing board members cant protect their silos. This threat will come within five years. 2018 was peak Rightmove. Short the stock and thank me later!

From: Michael Riley 26 January 2019 10:01 AM

Michael Riley
I remember an agent in Hampshire who used to sit in the pub all day and do deals on his massive mobile. His negs would run around doing viewings. Buyers and sellers would come and go... buyers would rock up on completion day, get the keys and have a drink too. I always thought "thats a bit pants".... but I can see how actually this type of operator might start to appear in coffee shops, as more and more legislation comes in and overheads continue to rise. Sometimes more legislation results in lower standards, as the market morphs around it. Flat white anyone?

From: Michael Riley 24 January 2019 12:15 PM

Michael Riley
Good thought provoking piece.

From: Michael Riley 23 January 2019 08:44 AM

Michael Riley
Great staff, poor corporate management. I remember when going to an office of Hamptons was a little like a visit to Waitrose. You just knew life wasnt too bad if thats where you were shopping. Now its more like BHS or House of Fraser. You pop in just on the off chance that a) it will still be in business after Christmas when your great aunt wants to return the gifts you bought her b) it still has Yardley perfume in stock. Once great company.... shortly to be acquired by a Mike Ashley type character as Countrywide unravels its assets. That will be in less than 15 months not 150 years. Happy New Year!

From: Michael Riley 04 January 2019 08:56 AM

Michael Riley
I agree whole heartedly that Onthemarket is a disruptor.... it just needs a time machine for Christmas and to go back 20 years to do it before someone else errrr did. In 2019 can we have a bit more commentary on EAT from people who have actually been agents, for decent companies and know what they are talking about from real life agency exoerience? That doesnt mean someone who has been a minor MD or got the award for most instructions on a Wednesday in qtr 2 wk 1 at Countrywide.

From: Michael Riley 21 December 2018 08:10 AM

Michael Riley
Whenever any agent adds up the value of homes they have sold I always think.... what small and important number are they hiding. In this case I guess its......PROFIT. ITS THE OLD PROFITS SANITY TURNOVER IS VANITY ROUTINE.

From: Michael Riley 13 December 2018 07:50 AM

Michael Riley
PB gets a hard time. The more I find out about them the more impressed I am with the level of detail and execution in their business. It is extremely impressive.... Agreed, it will most likely end in tears.... but there is plenty of gas in their tank yet. Its also not impossible their "true " business plan / model is yet to be revealed fully revealed. They have provided a much needed wake up call agencies, making them sit up and really have a good think about how they run their businesses and what is important (or not) to the customer.

From: Michael Riley 06 December 2018 22:02 PM

Michael Riley
Was this not obvious.....??? Run it into the ground, set up newco, buy the assets for a song and then change business model?

From: Michael Riley 29 November 2018 08:01 AM

Michael Riley
I've never understood the rants about lettings fees. It simple supply and demand.... agents need to charge someone something to stay in business. Do they charge the landlord (which are in acute short supply). Or the tenant (which there is an abundance of)? Tenant fee bans, prop tech, blah blah will not change the underlying economics. One way or another the tenant is going to end up paying because of these fundementals. Unless you don't think agents deserve to be paid at all. In which case.... good luck to landlords and tenants, as we know its a legislative minefield, not to mention all the "soft stuff" agents do.... for actually not a lot of profit in most cases.

From: Michael Riley 28 November 2018 09:04 AM

Michael Riley
Certainly, older private BTL will off load, if market was stronger. Their position is at best "hold" rather than "buy". They and "additional" home owners are the prime target of goverment to increase supply, as new build policy is flawed.

From: Michael Riley 27 November 2018 10:33 AM

Michael Riley
I appreciate you have a commercial position to take Richard. I'm happy to have a private bet on transaction numbers falling further. :) generally speaking, the market has been shrinking since 2006 and this will continue whilst the buy to let sector holds onto stock. The less stock available, the less that is attracted to come to the market. This combination of contraction in supply and cheap money is what has underpinned prices in the market since the credit crunch. Supply is a far more powerful lever than demand in the housing market in the UK at least. I agree in the need for "good agents" and should be there a flight to quality.

From: Michael Riley 27 November 2018 10:11 AM

Michael Riley
Rather than fueling demand, low interest rates are the key ingredient to the market stalling. They allow many sellers to sit on their hands, rather than sell and ride out the storm.... Until interest rates stabalise at "normal levels", the market will continue to be highly distorted and volatile in terms of supply and demand. Whilst many of us have enjoyed the benefits of this, we are going keep seeing these unusual patterns every few years ( and probably a massive crash at somepoint), as market has not been allowed to perform its natural cycle. Lets hope Brexit doesnt lead to the UK having a significantly worse credit rating and we have to increase rates sharply, to borrow on the money markets. Have a nice day!

From: Michael Riley 27 November 2018 08:22 AM

Michael Riley
Lets not get carried away.... it could mean....... drum roll.... breaking even.

From: Michael Riley 26 November 2018 07:58 AM

Michael Riley
" a prediction that if current ‘free’ users started paying, then the portal would be self-funding." Really! Whats that??? A business that charges customers might be able to survive without massive hand outs from the city. Wow. This is powerful stuff. OTM can have all the listings in the world.... it means nothing without visitor traffic. The simple fact is that regardless of whether they charge the "free agents", no amount of money will create the same amount of traffic that Rmove and Zoopla get. You dont beat strong competitors by being a "me too". A better strategy may be A) focus everything on dominating mobile. B) focus on Agumented Reality tech (pokemon for property) and hope to catch Rmove and Zoopla napping in about 5 years when it goes mainstream. One thing is for sure.... behind a lot of "city money" is some real person who is hoping for a return on their investment, to help pay for something important to them. They probably werent expecting it to be burnt like monopoly money while a company works out a way to "self fund".

From: Michael Riley 26 November 2018 04:05 AM

Michael Riley
Delusional management? High risk and unproven business model? All poorly executed? Is the tech is worth £2m? Data brand goodwill etc.... £0? At least PB is well executed. By the way, given Neil Woodfords massive share sell off over the last few months, does EAT know whether PBs most high profile investor has dumped their shares? Come on EAT, there's a story there, if you want to do some digging.

From: Michael Riley 23 November 2018 19:31 PM

Michael Riley
Its ironic that the more high street agencies that convert to hubs the stronger the remaining agencies become.

From: Michael Riley 23 November 2018 02:51 AM

Michael Riley
I concur with Charles Penny's comments. Prime will always batten down the hatches in a storm rather off load at a low price. You can buy average houses at discounted prices but as the recession showed there are few examples of exceptional houses going for exceptionally low prices. Sellers of quality stock know they have the best, thats why they bought the property. The market just shrinks, as owners remove properties and this reduction in supply helps to maintain prices.

From: Michael Riley 22 November 2018 08:23 AM

Michael Riley
Good strategic tie up with two quality players. Well done chaps.

From: Michael Riley 15 November 2018 16:19 PM

Michael Riley
Regardless of whether you think the PB YOPA pay upfront advertising model instruction to sales ratio is good or not, there is an important variable that people overlook that needs to be factored in..... Customer Churn, traditional "success based" agents have a higher natural churn in many cases. The reason is that if as a seller you have paid a grand to buy an advert with PB, you will keep the listing live under almost any circumstances...... as success based agents know at this time of year... its not uncommon to see your stock level dip, as owners remove their unsold properties for the winter, as in many cases they have no financial skin in the game. This is a natural seasonal ebb and flow of instructions... the company that sells ads with bells and whistles attached, dont suffer it in the same way. Or sellers switching away to another agency .. why would you if you had paid a grand up front. This fact also helps to over inflate the popularity of advertising models when trying to compare "success based" agents. You might think x000 customers love the advertising model, the reality is that many of them are financially commited whether that are happy or not and wont switch for that reason. Lastly, I will say to EAT again. Please stop refering to the advertising model of PB as agency. Its not, its advertising sales. Both have their place in the market... but the distinction is important to make.

From: Michael Riley 14 November 2018 09:14 AM

Michael Riley
I really wish E A T would make a clear distinction between the PB etc advertising model ( not an agent and misleading to say so) and a success based actual agent (retail based or non retail). Continuing to call PB etc "agents" is misleading and makes the whole conversation flawed in my opinion.

From: Michael Riley 10 November 2018 09:54 AM

Michael Riley
They say, if you cant say anything positive dont say anything at all, so I apologise in advance.... I'm all up for agents working for themselves and well done to those agents that have stepped up and chosen to do so with KW.... but there is just something that makes me yawn whenever I see a statement from KW. Is it a dull soulless brand?... or classic American "bigger must be better" attitude? Or just a case of all hat and no cattle, as they say in Texas? Good luck to the agents never the less.

From: Michael Riley 08 November 2018 19:37 PM

Michael Riley
Well done Robert and Mark. What a team! The subtext here is that it has nothing to do with which franchise and everything to do with either excellent agents, who simply earn lots more when they do it for themselves. Or earn the same and work a lot less hours. The franchise brand name is virtually irrevelvant here, talent and effort is what is driving the figures. Well done guys.

From: Michael Riley 02 October 2018 08:45 AM

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