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Housing shortage will continue to drive up UK prices

Property prices were at the forefront of the EU debate in the run-up to the referendum, with the now former Chancellor George Osborne claiming that the value of homes in the UK could fall by as much as 18% following a Brexit vote.

Based on the average price of a home in the UK, Osborne’s forecast suggested that the average residential property could fall in value by more than £50,000 within two years of the vote in comparison with what it would be if the UK stayed in the EU.

But his assertion, or scare tactic, depending on how you viewed it, was rather bold given that there is a severe housing shortage in this country.


The number of new homes currently being built remains significantly below the government’s target of 200,000 new homes a year, and is almost half the estimated 300,000 new homes a year needed just to meet existing demand for housing in this country, according to a new report from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.

And yet, rather than increasing new housing supply, the latest housebuilding data shows that residential construction levels are actually falling: down by 3.2% in May – the biggest drop since February 2014.

Housing output has now fallen in every month this year apart from February, and the signs are that development levels could fall even further in the coming months.

Last week, housebuilder Barratt said it could reduce the rate at which it builds homes as the company prepares for a slowdown following Britain’s vote to leave the EU.

Overall, the UK has missed its housebuilding targets by a staggering 1,199,180 since 2004, recent figures from Yorkshire Building Society revealed.

The lack of sufficient housing supply has caused prices to increase well beyond wage growth, which has increased competition for properties and priced many people out of the market. 

Early indications are that Brexit will result in a further decline in new housing supply as the uncertainty over what impact it will have on the housing market deters residential developers, which is likely to heighten the housing crisis – with no resolution insight. 

With housebuilders failing to deliver anywhere near the number of homes the country needs, property prices will inevitably rise further in the medium to long term, even if there is a dip in the short term, making it even harder for many people to acquire property.

*Marc Da Silva is Estate Agent Today and Letting Agent Today Features Editor. You can follow him on Twitter @propertyjourno

  • icon

    There will continue to be a shortage of houses for sale because of new tax rules and it will wrongly be blamed on Brexit! Retired people are trapped with houses they would like to sell because of new capital gains tax rules on properties they have owned for 30 years. Now because of no taper relief or indexation they need to find a large sum for CGT when they sell. They have re-mortgaged their properties to purchase further buy to let properties so have no equity to pay CGT. Anyway they cant sell the buy to let properties to other landlords because new rules have killed that market. So government income will plunge and many properties will not be available for first time buyers or families. Rents and house prices will have to rise.

  • Martin Williams

    Why is it always about London ? Stop whinging and just move North !

  • icon

    Where does it say LONDON in this report?

    Stop feeling left out - LONDON (like it or not) is the UK Powerhouse.

    Get over it.


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