Annual capital appreciation on homes may be a thing of the past, warns Zoopla.
Its latest analysis suggests average UK house prices have risen in 25 of the last 30 years, but this frequency has taken a battering recently.
Fewer than one in seven (14%) of UK homes have grown in value on a consecutive yearly basis between June 2021 and June 2026.
This latest analysis covers a five year period marked by a shift in borrowing costs from the ending of a period of ultra low mortgage rates at the end of 2021 to more typical mortgage rates of 4% to 5% today.
The impact of higher borrowing costs is not uniform and has a bigger impact on people looking to buy homes where house prices are higher.
Northern markets prove most resilient
The UK’s northern regions have proven to be the most resilient when it comes to steady home value increases.
Lower home values means more households can afford to buy and this supports continued price increases despite the changing economic conditions and higher borrowing costs.
Property in the North West leads the UK in consistent house price growth, with 30% of homes consistently increasing in value over each of the past five years.
This trend is also evident in other, more affordable areas such as Yorkshire and the Humber, where 22% of homes have continued to rise in value each year.
However, these areas lie in stark contrast to southern England where the impact of higher borrowing costs has had a greater impact on house prices, where fewer than 1 in 20 homes have registered consistent yearly increases in home values.
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, comments: “The last five years have seen local housing markets adjust differently to the impact of moving from record-low borrowing costs to higher rates today.
“Housing markets across Northern Ireland, the North and Scotland have seen homeowners keep building equity in their home because the local housing market was less exposed to the affordability pressures that higher mortgage rates bring.
“For homeowners, this analysis highlights why you cannot rely on national or regional averages when assessing what your home is worth. Trends vary by property type and at a hyper local level.
“Understanding whether your local area has consistently built equity or flatlined is essential information, if you want to understand what you can afford to buy next or you are actively planning your next move.”
Regional Summary: Consistent Growth
| Region/country | Homes that have grown in value every year | % homes increasing over 5 years | Homes that have fallen in value every year | % homes decreasing over 5 years |
| N Ireland | 300,400 | 37.9% | 0 | 0.0% |
| North West | 1,006,800 | 29.7% | 700 | 0.0% |
| Scotland | 599,200 | 22.6% | 9,300 | 0.3% |
| Yorks & Humber | 551,200 | 22.0% | 1,500 | 0.1% |
| North East | 250,800 | 20.5% | 600 | 0.0% |
| West Midlands | 502,400 | 19.6% | 1,900 | 0.1% |
| Wales | 277,900 | 19.1% | 300 | 0.0% |
| East Midlands | 212,400 | 9.8% | 800 | 0.0% |
| London | 178,000 | 4.6% | 30,400 | 0.8% |
| South West | 107,300 | 4.1% | 1,300 | 0.0% |
| South East | 129,400 | 3.2% | 6,100 | 0.2% |
| East of England | 72,600 | 2.6% | 3,700 | 0.1% |
| UK | 4,188,400 | 14.0% | 56,600 | 0.2% |
Source: Zoopla home value estimates June 2021-June 2026
Where values have consistently slipped
Year on year decline in value emerged as a rare event, affecting just 0.2% of UK homes (approximately 56,000 properties).
Where this consistent decline occurs, it points to hyper-local economic or market factors rather than broader national trends.
In Aberdeen, for example, 5.9% of homes fell in value every year for five years, reflecting the long-term structural transition of the North Sea oil and gas industry.
