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TODAY'S OTHER NEWS

Emoov boss in Twitter outburst describing Mark Carney as "dangerous"

Bank of England governor Mark Carney says a no-deal Brexit exit could lead to a 35 per cent house price crash.

The scenario is one of three for the wider economy painted by Carney in a presentation to government ministers yesterday. 

The worst case scenario would see Britain go into recession, a slump in the value of the pound and a crash in house prices - down 35 per cent over three years.

One newspaper this morning says that Carney also warned that the no-deal chaos could be as damaging to the wider economy as the 2008 financial crisis. 

Political commentators briefed on the presentation say Carney’s comments were received "respectfully" by members of the Cabinet who were present - but not everyone in the agency industry felt the same way. 

When news broke of the worst-case scenario last evening, Emoov founder Russell Quirk tweeted: “Mark Carney is the most dangerous man in Britain and needs to shut up spouting this crap. Between him and the Archbishop of Canterbury they both need to leave politics to the politicians.”

However, the lead economist of the official Leave campaign in the EU referendum - Andrew Lilico - also took to Twitter to say: "35 per cent is the standard [real terms] fall in UK house price downturns. That's what happened in 2007-2011, 1990-94, and 1978-81."

The kerfuffle over Carney's analysis came shortly after the chief executive of the Haart estate agency chain said the political and economic uncertainties surrounding Brexit had not stopped a major improvement in its business performance.

Paul Smith said his firm’s transactions across England and Wales up 10 per cent in the past month to their highest level since November 2016. There was also an annual increase of 19 per cent in buyers entering the market in London.

“For over two years we’ve been listening to bold claims from commentators and public figures about the impact that Brexit will have on the housing market, but what we are seeing on the ground is proving them otherwise” said Smith.

“Even the formerly sluggish London market is starting to make a u-tum. House prices are down slightly on the month and are flat on the year, but transactions have jumped 15 per cent on the month” he adds. 

“With 20 buyers chasing every property on the market in London, it is clear that it is a lack of stock that is really holding the market back from reaching its full potential.”

Smith’s claims were significantly more upbeat than most other agents but he admits there is a continuing fall in the number of buy to let purchases - although Smith says rents in London are up five per cent over the past year.

“But the market is not without its flaws. The government needs to re-double its efforts to increase housing stock, and there is growing clamour within the industry for further radical action following the success of last year’s stamp duty cut for first time buyers.”

  • Chris Arnold

    It had to happen. Eventually.
    I find myself agreeing with Russell.
    Let this be the last time.

  • Kieran Ryan

    Carney, has over the last several years stated that the BOE base rates were going to increase, scaremongering the public, from a man in his position is an appalling error of judgement. its only just increased!! I think he's got it wrong once again.

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    The UK is a safe haven and will always support a robust housing market. Carneys comments are less than helpful-hopefully over the next few days the public will be educated on exactly what he did mean. It is refreshing to see one of the larger agents being so upbeat after announcements from the top 3 chains that volumes are down. Its going to be an interesting end to the year-those agents that hold their nerve and continue to be upbeat and invest will be the winners long term.

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    The UK won't be a safe haven if confidence goes. We've already dropped from fifth to sixth strongest economy in the world in the last 12 months. The just over 50% voting Brexiteers are very much like the similar percentage of estate agents in the early 1990s who said everything was hunky dory when the housing market was up s**t creek with a plank for a paddle.

  • Brit Miller

    The housing market was always going to correct, it has been doing so the last 3 years in London & South East. There is a lot of froath in Manchester and midlands, very likely to have big falls,not as much in North East.

  • icon

    Mark Carney should not make predictions like that and the BBC will ramp up the doom and gloom. We all know that the for a year or three following Brexit it will be hard and property prices may dip but we will get the benefit of Brexit by 2021. Russell Quirk is right but also knows how a tough market will hit those not giving a full service. A tough market is not a bad thing for proper agents. It will see off the ones that give no service.

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