Lloyds Bank is predicting a “more modest” fall in house prices during 2024.
The lender had predicted in September that average prices would fall by 2.4% this year but its annual report yesterday issued revised projects of a 2.2% decline.
It said: “House prices proved more resilient in the second half of the year than previously assumed.”
A base case scenario from the bank suggests prices will rise by 0.5% in 2025, by 1.6% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. It suggests prices will have risen by 1% on average between 2023 to 2027.
Its worst-case scenario predicts that prices will fall 4.5% this year, 6% in 2025, 5.6% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
The annual report also showed that loans and advances to customers, including mortgages, reduced by £5.2bn during 2023 to £449.7bn.
This included the securitisation of £2.5bn of legacy retail mortgages in the first quarter and £2.7bn of retail unsecured loans in the fourth quarter; excluding these, loans and advances to customers were flat.
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Their worst case scenario clearly assumes a nuke war, else they must have forgotten about a housing shortage.
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