A leading buying agent says the first quarter of 2019 may be crucial in determining the future of the current stamp duty regime.
Johnny Turnbull - who heads Turnbull Property, which operates on behalf of high net worth individuals wishing to buy residential units in London - says stamp duty revenue across the capital over the financial year to April 2018 may have risen, but the critical period of assessment is still to come.
“However, with latest data indicating SDLT tax intake across the UK was 10% lower between April and September than the same period a year ago, is stamp duty revenue intake set to fall?” says Turnbull in a newsletter to clients.
He says that some high value deals, of properties worth over £5m, have risen in volume and may produce more stamp duty income than before - “but will it bridge the gap?” he asks.
Then Turnbull turns to the future.
“The first quarter of 2019 may prove crucial in determining whether the Treasury will see a hole in its pocket in 2018/19” he warns.
“The combination of London accounting for nearly 40 per cent of all UK residential tax income, Brexit uncertainty making a change in activity levels unlikely and consultation on a one per cent non-residents levy, make this a possibility.”