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Happy New Year from the team at Estate Agent Today.

Everyone here is as sceptical as the next person about the accuracy of price and property industry forecasts - but if agents make predictions, we're happy to report them.

We have a selection of rental forecasts over on Letting Agent Today, but here is a selection of sales market predictions for 2015 from agents.

Hamptons International: This agency has revised its forecast for 2015's housing market on the strength of George Osborne's stamp duty changes, suggesting prices in England and Wales will grow by up to four per cent in 2015 and 4.5 per cent the year after.

In the coming 12 months the east of England is the region expected to see the greatest rise in prices, at four per cent, along with the south east, south west and north west.

In London, which saw the strongest growth in 2014, house price growth is set to be the most subdued - prices in Greater London are set to rise by 1.5 per cent, by 2.0 per cent in central London and a meagre 0.5 per cent in Prime Central London in 2015.

Winkworth: This franchise agency warns that our expectation is that the market will continue to be subdued in the first half of the year. However, in a reverse image of 2014, we expect the latter half to see a pick up both in terms of prices and transactions."

Winkworth has already warned that stricter lending requirements because of the Mortgage Market Review and the strength of sterling has been lessening the attraction of London property to international buyers.

Changes to the taxation of overseas investors and a less accommodative exchange rate lead us to believe that, although the market may pick up slightly after the general election, prices will be flat in central London for the year as a whole the firm has said in a statement.

Transaction levels in 2015 should remain at a similar level to those of 2014.

eMoov: The online agency led by Russell Quirk predicts the rise and fall of new portal OnTheMarket in 2015 due to their anti-consumer approach to business and their encouragement of member agents to reduce client coverage for selling.

He predicts record publicity spends by Rightmove and Zoopla while there will be a customer backlash for OnTheMarket. The consumer won't stand for this and will demand to be listed on both Rightmove and Zoopla he says.

Carter Jonas: Provincial towns and cities are likely to be Britain's best performing local housing markets according to Carter Jonas.

The agency's research analyst Lee Layton says that while the national market will continue to cool we expect demand to remain strong within desirable cathedral cities and market towns such as York and Cambridge as the trend towards urban living gathers pace.

The agency expects these locations to see price rises of as much as seven per cent over the course of 2015. Good quality rural property will perform well, too, rising by two to five per cent.

JLL: One of the most optimistic forecasts for 2015's housing market has come from niche agency JLL which says mainstream house prices across the UK will rise 4.0 per cent.

It says prime London will see 1.5 per cent increases with some regions seeing growth of up to 5.5 per cent.

JLL - formerly known as Jones Lang LaSalle - has a successful research department extending its analysis well beyond the agency's core markets of cental London and new developments.

By 2019 the UK will have enjoyed 22.8 per cent growth while prime London will see an increase of 19.9 per cent. The regions with the largest long term growth over this period will be south east England, rising 27 per cent, and Greater London, soaring over 29 per cent.

Strutt & Parker: The election is likely to sharply curb market activity although there will still be some price growth. The agency says prices will rise by an average of five per cent across the UK and around three per cent in prime central London.

Strutts' forecasts are a stark contrast to 2010 and 2011 when prime London prices surged by over 13 per cent year-on-year. In addition to election jitters, Strutts says the prospect of interest rate rises and the continuing effects of the Mortgage Market Review are creating what head of research Stephanie McMahon calls potential headwinds to batter the market in 2015.

If supply improves significantly thanks to the gradually strengthening house building figures, prices will be dampened, she warns.

The government are continuing to boost house building across the country, and recent output figures from the construction sector reflect this. House prices tend to rise when stock is low and with more houses being built, particularly in the lower end of the market, this could also have an effect on prices over the next few months explains McMahon

Knight Frank: Bucking the trend of several agents, Knight Frank is forecasting that even the uncertainty of the general election will not stop the mainstream housing market rising on average by 3.5 per cent.

Over the long-term, prices will appreciate 18.2 per cent over the five years to the end of 2019.

This rising appetite for property comes against the continuing shortage of new housing stock in the UK, putting strong upward pressure on prices in some areas says the firm's head of UK research, Grainne Gilmore.

This has been especially evident in London, where both the fundamental lack of supply of new homes and a lack of existing stock on the market have combined to deliver large double-digit annual growth in prices in some local authorities just outside the central areas.

Knight Frank says that in London - where some other agents think political uncertainty over the election and a possible mansion tax will cause price falls - values will actually rise in 2015 by 3.5 per cent and then escalate a total of 25.8 per cent by 2019.

Savills: Prime central London prices could fall as much as five per cent after the election if the result means a Labour or Liberal Democrat influenced government would introduce a mansion tax.

That's the view of high-end agency Savills which says that even if such a tax was introduced, central London prices would rally in 2016 and thereafter.

The agency's forecast for 2015 shows that mainstream average house price growth will slow to two per cent with Greater London flatlining.

Stress testing of borrowers' ability to service a mortgage and loan to value lending caps will increasingly limit the amount buyers can borrow, making it more difficult to access or trade up within the market warns Lucian Cook, Savills' head of residential research.

Not only will this suppress price rises, particularly in London, it will also reduce the potential for transaction volumes to return to anything close to a pre crunch norm he predicts.

Comments

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    It's great to see all the well established and respected agents on this list making interesting and well researched comments and predictions for the market in 2015. Emoov looks a little out of place and i'm sure many would agree that its hard to take Russel's comments all that seriously.

    He appears to be the only one NOT commenting about the market, just bit**ing about the new portal hes not allowed on. What a petulant little child.

    • 02 January 2015 09:25 AM
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    A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL! ;o)

    • 01 January 2015 00:23 AM
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