Housing market set for double dip, says Reuters

The Bear,

Some fair opinions in your post, although I guess your views are reflected in your name.

I would be interested to know your thoughts and opinions on the foreign markets you have used as examples, Spain, Dubai, Ireland and the USA all have a factor that the UK didn’t / doesn’t, that being an enormous explosion of new build.

Dubai’s development in recent years has been extreme, I believe that in some parts of Ireland there are vast swathes of ‘ghost estates’ where new sites stand empty and the Spanish crash has been led by the ‘tourist’ property market collapsing as I also believe that you can buy an apartment on the Costas for half what they cost 4 years ago? The USA has vast numbers of new property cropping up across it and like the others you mention has far less restrictive planning laws than the UK.

The issue with the UK’s unbelievably complex and restricted planning policies combined with an ever increasing (working rather than tourist in the case of Spain and Dubai) population has created a chronic shortage of property for at least the last 2 decades I have been selling property.

I think its also appropriate to underline that everyone in EA does agree that prices will fall, what no one can define and the EA / HPC sides cant agree is how much, in what areas, to what varying level, in what property sector / type etc and for how long, apart from that we all agree on the principle it’s the broad brush one size fits all predictions that are the stumbling block.

• 22 November 2010 10:42 AM

Blame rightmove, they souldn't let stupid estate agents put property on thier site at inflated prices. Poor old estate agents so bullied by rightmove

• 22 November 2010 10:08 AM

We haven't seen anything yet in terms of price falls. Look at the US, Ireland, Spain and Dubai - the markets most closely resembling the UK's in overvaluation. They have fallen MUCH further. As the comments about sellers taking their properties off the market - well the currently artificially low interest rates make this a possibility ... FOR NOW. The reason none of the banks want to lend against mortgages is because they know what is coming. And it is a train wreck. Inflation is already rising and at some point the BoE will have to act. Once rates start to rise they will spike up quickly. All those choosey sellers 'sitting on their hands' will pile out of the market and then you really will see some falls. Sell when you can, not when you have to. Best trading adage ever spoken ...

• 21 November 2010 18:51 PM

as an agent you get the staff you deserve, if you list right, work hard and talk straight there will always be a market

• 19 November 2010 18:39 PM

my office has agreed 7 sales this week so far come on pundits! forget the doom and gloom!

• 19 November 2010 18:37 PM

Good stuff

The Housing Economists have hopefully got the numbers right, we can all plan for the drop as they have nailed it down to how much they will drop and when and not have to go through that ghastly process of allowing market forces and supply / demand etc have to do it all for us…………..makes it much easier with vendors and no doubt we can also tip the HPC guys off of the point prices will climb again, might create some harmony, we’ll all get a calendar out, plot out the peaks and troughs then everyone can agree when they want to do what when.

Just a shame none of them were able to be so specific pre crunch, not that it’s all being quoted after the event or anything.

Jonnie

• 19 November 2010 14:43 PM

In short prices look likely to fall a further 10% to 15% is where i see it over the next 6/8 months, but what we do have on ourside and i'm seeing less and less coming on, more and more coming off and some properties which were never going to sell are now going under offer due to the sudden shortgage of property. Could we end up back in a "supply & demmand" scenario we saw in the summer of 2009 where little was on the market and buyers had no option but to buy what was around " within reason being at the right price".

• 19 November 2010 11:52 AM

Surely this old news - we are already in a double dip....only because sales figures are posted retrospectively are the so called experts not able to say so now..

• 19 November 2010 11:52 AM

Welcome news. Hopefully further drops through 2011 will give buyers confidence that they're not getting a property that's been over-priced by 15-25%, and we can actually get some sales before we go under.

• 19 November 2010 11:11 AM

I am amazed these so called economists actually know that house prices are going to drop by 5%! i think they just need to justify their existance and come out with an opinion which causes unrest and has no substance. In addition these so called economists do not take into account every region/locale and marketplace. Rant over with!

• 19 November 2010 10:57 AM

This should be no suprise to anyone, except those that keep talking the market up (and over valuing!!!!) while buring their head in a bucket of sand.

Property prices in general are still not affordable but are certainly getting close. 5% h'mmm possibly but my money is on 10% before we see mortage lending free up and a return to normal for first time buyers.

• 19 November 2010 10:51 AM