Each month over the past three years I have summarised the latest data from Land Registry, Halifax, from Rightmove.co.uk, CML and the Bank of England, and I have also been distracted by other sources. Many people are getting ‘index fatigue’.
Frankly, I am now getting ‘index rage’!
Although it is between a month and three months behind, the data from HM Land Registry is generally regarded as ‘the authority’. While other sets help look at certain elements of the market such as asking prices, mortgage advances and bank lending, some, like the monthly RICS report, just seem to measure sentiment or gut feeling.
As a data carnivore, I need meat, not tofu!
So this year I am taking the Land Registry data and looking at volumes of sales and values, and their relationship with the previous year and to the peak of the market.
Average values vary from parish to parish and the market peaked in each at different times. Prices topped out in Kensington & Chelsea in June 2008, but across London as a whole it was six months earlier in January.
For convenience I will be looking at England and Wales and at London – the latter seemingly immune from the ravages of the wider market.
Finally, for two reasons I am looking at the whole market and at the rarified market of homes over £1m. This is because from April 6, property over £1m will attract an additional 1% Stamp Duty Land Tax and also because those buying at this altitude are not affected quite so much by lending policies in the same way that first-time buyers are.
In October (the latest numbers that the Land Registry has just published) sales of properties in England and Wales between £150–£200,000 (which includes the ‘average’ house price) were 23% down on last year at 7,495.
In August 2007 (the peak of the market) there were 24,274 sales at this level. That’s a 69% fall at the bottom compared with ‘only’ a 40% fall in volumes for homes priced over £1m!
So, what can we see from the first report of the year from the Land Registry?
Across England & Wales, average house prices are still nearly 12% below their peak pre-credit crunch levels, but at £163,184 they are 2.28% above where they were in December 2009. In London they have done even better – up 8%.
Sales volumes have not fared so well. In October just 56,000 homes sold: a 15% fall on the previous year and 55% fewer than the peak in August 2007. In London, volumes have also fallen over the last year, but by only 12% less.
The total value of homes sold has fallen – by nearly 60% from the peak! Estate agency fees have likewise fallen, although rising values have cushioned the blow over the past year – they’re down just 4.3%.
The proportion of homes selling at the top end of the market across the country has risen over the past year by 1% but in London they have fallen back by 4.5%. However, London still represents 56% of all property sold over £1m.
Over the past year some 6,725 properties have sold for more than £1m across England and Wales, but there is no sign yet of deals at 144 Knightsbridge or, as it is now known, One Hyde Park.
It remains to be seen if they will be disclosed as the Land Registry doesn’t publish all transactions. Their list of exempted deals includes those made between companies, so it’s possible we may never see them.
I hope you find all this both helpful and interesting, but if you have any questions, please ask.
Download the latest table here: files.me.com/henry.pryor/xr509t
* Henry Pryor is a housing market analyst
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Comments
Thank you for sharing this information.
Average values vary from parish to parish and the market peaked in each at different times. In October (the latest numbers that the Land Registry has just published) sales of properties in England and Wales between £150–£200,000 (which includes the ‘average’ house price) were 23% down on last year at 7,495.
In August 2007 (the peak of the market) there were 24,274 sales at this level. That’s a 69% fall at the bottom compared with ‘only’ a 40% fall in volumes for homes priced over £1m!
The total value of homes sold has fallen – by nearly 60% from the peak!
Henry's data is well researched and well thought through and very welcome on a regular basis. He is absolutely correct in separating London away from the rest of the country as it may as well be on a different planet if the truth be known and as a result only serves to confuse. Some caution should be applied however, when using Land Registry data which in practice can be up to six months out of date, if you take the starting point as being that of a sale price being agreed. A lot can happen in six months and successive Governments have made a mistake in depending on Land Registry data to determine policy. It is also a mistake to use these figures as a basis for forecasting the future. Similarly RICS surveyors depend on actual comparable data (well they have their PI to worry about), which again doesn't pick up trends until they have actually occurred. Estate Agents are at the "sharp end" and you could say they are the one's who know first but unfortunately they are an over-optimistic lot at the best/worst of times so their judgement often lacks a degree of credibility. So how do we do it? We should look even further back as confidence in bricks and mortar seems to go through roughly a twenty year cycle from peak to peak or trough to trough if you like (excluding London of course). I think it must be something to do with people's memory or lack of memory perhaps. In any case keep up the good work Henry you might just try the suggestion.