The flow of properties coming on to estate agents’ books has almost ground to a halt, the RICS has said.
Reporting for November, it said that while instructions were stagnating, new buyer inquiries were continuing to grow at almost the strongest pace in the record of the RICS monthly surveys.
The RICS said that stock levels are at historically low levels, while sales levels are rising.
It also said that activity in the rental market had slowed markedly since the earlier than expected launch of Help to Buy.
The RICS never mentions actual house prices, but talks in measurements. It said its measurement of house price expectations stood at +59, the highest reading since September 1999.
The body is forecasting house prices to go up by 3% next year and by almost 5% per year for the next five years.
Comments from chartered surveyors which are attached to the RICS report show huge discrepancies between the north and south.
For example, Stephen Holland of Carter Jonas in Cumbria expresses concerns that the “southern froth and resultant knee-jerk reaction” will stall a market recovery in the north. Another says that buyers in the north lack confidence, and another that there had been only the “gentlest of ripples beyond Watford”.
Simon Bainbridge of Smiths Gore in Darlington says that “press hype is way off the mark for this area”, while Ian Briggs, of Dacre, Son & Hartley in Ilkley fears “a distinct risk that any northern recovery may be thwarted by measures to damp down a London / south-east boom”.
By contrast, a large number of RICS agents further south remark on the lack of property.
* Separately, London agent Peter Rollings, CEO of Marsh & Parsons, has forecast price rises in the capital of 5-7% next year, driven by lack of supply.
He expects most of the growth to take place in the first half of 2014. He puts house price growth this year at 10.3%.
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Comments
And so it turns into a sellers market overnight.
The smell of greedy vendors fills the air once more.
We can never have a balanced market can we.
I am looking for some help with a project over Christmas, Starting at Harwich I would like to saw along the county boundaries of Essex, Greater london, Surrey and West Sussex in the hope that London and South East will float across the English to France where they seem to moan a lot. There are some really nice folk down in the South East but I have decided they are worth sacrificing in order to get rid of everyone with offices overlooking Parliament square.
There are some decent folk in Essex too but an opportunity if ridding the country of Towie should not be missed, the world is looking at that show and thinking we are all like that.
Please register interest at www.ricsdonthalftalkshit.com
What would you like them to do green top man?
Are you saying SDLT is the prime reason new instructions are down?
"Almost ground to a halt". Probably because no one wants to instruct stuck up chartered surveyors any more!
Instructions always start to wane in November, but we have found they have been slightly better than the last few years. However, that does not detract from the fact that there is not enough stock nationwide and, until this Coalition does something major about stamp duty, it's likely to be much of the same for the foreseeable future.
There is a shortage of instructions. What isn't helping is the press telling everyone prices will soar next year. Plus, at the time this survey was undertaken, the world was looking at the effect of Help to Buy which compounded these predictions. New buyers have been 'enabled' and are seeking to buy before this predicted boom and before the then lauded hypothetical bubble grows and bursts.
I am thinking of selling, (or rather evil ex wife tells me I am) but I wouldn't put the house on the market until next year.
Christmas always sees a reduction in instructions. New year to spring sees this reverse.
In march we will see reports of a downturn in transactions - usually from sales 3 months previously.
This phenomenon is technically known as Christmas - and it happens every year.
Well it is Christmas and many do not want to bother until the new year of course
I wouldn't would you?
Convincing people to come to the market now when they have enough on planning for the big chap in the red coat is always a tall order
If you want more sales instructions, you have to get inside the head of the potential vendor before they want a free valuation.
Quite interestingly, whilst are main business is generating lettings leads for letting agents, one of my agents used out process to on the home owners properties. Funny thing was, he got a decent uplift in sales free valuations.
If anyone wants a chat about it, its not tested and we havent got anything on our website about it, but it seems to work.
James
RICS are full of seasonal cheer - lets hope they never take over the Samaraitans
Lack of houses going on the market makes life diffucult for ths sign companies, I laugh at them when they ask for an increase but they will soon have to double thier prices just to break even
If the market is artificially extended beyond its natural flow it stops.
It is all well and good providing finance to start the market moving but BTL investors have been vacuuming up starter homes at every opportunity for the past 4 years.
In order for first time sellers to move and vacate properties they have to have somewhere they can afford to move to, likewise with the 2nd time sellers. Because the market is over extended and the gap between tiers too wide no-one sensible can move.
Peter Bolton King doesn't stick his name on stupid press releases like this anymore but this shows a genuine naivety of how property chains work. At some point someone will realise if you want to know about cracks , drains, subsidence or heave ask a surveyor if you want to know about property sales ask an Estate Agent.
With the very real threat of a rise in BOE interest rates within 18 months intelligent and informed vendors are curbing their aspirations for an extra 10 sqm of accommodation. Coming out of 5 years of property recession Home owners are naturally cautious of moving. Without the traditional inflation safety net that used to see wage inflation make the gamble less risky after 5 years or so now absent from the equation there is very little to convince the public that adding another £100,000 to their mortgage debt is a good idea.
Food and Heating inflation is happening but strangely it is not showing in inflation figures. The public is feeling that in their pockets and are staying put.
Please can Government realise that the although the comment coming from their neighbours across parliament square has a Royal Charter sticker on it, the people making the comment have no proper understanding of the subject.