In the biggest monthly house price drop on record, house prices fell 3.6% in September, the Halifax reported.
But in an extraordinary development, a report out this morning – the Acadametrics survey – claimed housing market activity picked up in September by 3.4% and prices rose by 0.2%.
The confusion underlines why the Government has called in its chief statistician to report on the huge divergence between the house price surveys.
The Acadametrics report was distributed by the PR firm Wriglesworth, which strongly defended its findings – despite the fact that it was also sending out press releases on behalf of other clients agreeing with the findings of the Halifax report.
One, Alan Cleary, of Precise Mortgages, was quoted as agreeing that transactions had gone down in September.
Asked to comment, Wriglesworth said there were ‘Chinese walls’ with different PR executives representing the views of different clients.
In defence of the Acadametrics report being so at odds with Halifax, the PR executive said that the Halifax does not include cash-only purchases, whereas Acadametrics does.
However, the Land Registry survey does include cash purchases, and has recently been putting average house prices at much the same level as both Halifax and Nationwide. Yesterday, Halifax reported that the average price of a home in the UK is now £162,096. The fall equates to an average drop in price of £6,000.
But this morning, Acadametrics reported the average price of a home is now £223,965 – an enormous difference of almost £62,000.
Nor does its finding that housing transactions rose in September appear to tally with what some estate agents are saying.
Yesterday, Hamptons International said that its transaction levels in September were down an astonishing 20% on August.
Adam Challis, head of research at the firm, said the Halifax statistics were “worrying figures for the housing market”.
He said: “Government austerity measures have been harmful to market sentiment. Across our network, we observed some weakening of the market over the summer which continued into September. Transaction levels were down 20% last month alone.”
He said there was a “pause” in market demand and he did not expect the market to adjust to the “new normal” until next spring.
According to Halifax, the fall means that house prices are now just 2.6% higher than this time a year ago, and are now 0.9% lower than three months ago.


The Halifax’s economist, Martin Ellis, said: “Prospects for the housing market remain uncertain. Earnings growth is expected to be very modest over the next year, tax rises are on the way, and more people are putting their homes on the market. These will all be constraints on the market, dampening housing prices.

“On the positive side, we expect interest rates to remain very low for some time, which will underpin the improved affordability position for home owners.”


The Halifax report also draws attention to mortgage approvals, which the Bank of England said fell to their lowest level for six months in August, to 47,372.

Ellis said that low transaction levels increased the “difficulty of getting a clear reading on the current state of the housing market”.
At the RICS, Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist, said: “The latest numbers from Halifax provide further evidence that house prices are easing. That said, the 3.6% drop in this index in September undoubtedly highlights the extent of the softer trend in prices.
“Significantly, the annual rate of change in prices in the Halifax index at 2.6% is not far away from the equivalent figures from Nationwide Building Society (3.1%).
“RICS expects prices to slip a little further over the coming months.”
Peter Rollings, managing director of Marsh & Parsons, said the Halifax survey was not “the story of London”.
He said London prices had reached a plateau, but had not gone down, held up by strong demand from cash buyers.
However, Cluttons and Knight Frank both disagreed with him. Knight Frank said central London house prices had fallen for three months running.
Cluttons said central London house prices had gone down slightly (by 0.2%) and would fall further because demand had weakened and the number of properties on the market had gone up.
Andrew Stanford, head of Cluttons’ residential professional division, said: “Whilst potential applicants continued to register during the third quarter, in reality demand was low.
“There has been little activity or interest in property above £3m or for secondary stock which, as a consequence, is likely to remain on agents’ books until a price adjustment is made.”
Confusion as house prices plummet by record amount – or rise slightly
08 October 2010
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Comments
E.Hessan: You will appreciate that I stand by my comment - however I recognise that fact the post was not yours and thank you for taking the time to clear that up. This has also happened to me on a number of occasions. When this site allows such freedom of anonymity there is NO NEED to clone names. Those who do so have little or no imagination; are not funny; and leave us all wondering how they get by in life. I may not agree with what you have said on this site (so far...) - but I recognise your opinion and your right to it - and certainly wouldn't post anything under your or anyone else's name.
E.Hessan - I think you will find my comment was directed at Liam - who unless his parents have more love of irony than yourself, is I presume of the male persuasion. Hence 'young man'. Were I referring to you I would have previously said 'young man / woman/ prefer not to disclose (delete where appropriate)'. But now I don't need to. Except the 'young' bit, of course - we only have your word for that - but I am too much of a gentleman to push the point...
Young man? I'd prefer young lady if it's all the same with you.
The post which has been subsequently removed was not actually me; unfortunately the downfall of this site. I have no idea what it said however can assure you it was not me the E.Hessan that posted orginally.
Liam: While you're on, note the irony in E.Hessan's post. When having a go at someone for using sarcasm, don't be sarcastic yourself! In the meantime, enjoy your learning curve on here, young man ;0)
Oh, dear - looks like someone tried to be funny and fell foul of the admin instead. You'll just have to try harder next time...
This post has been removed by site admin
E. Hessan – look as you’re still here and have managed to suppress your dislike for EAT & I for this long and stay on the site then im sorry, it was a hasty remark I made about your arse and I regret it.
So let’s start again –
Make a interesting contribution to this or any topic, I may be a sarcastic fool and you are an uptight oddity but there’s nothing wrong with either and if you want to apply your ‘trait’ to the posts you make then providing you have a point that will stimulate debate / amuse / whatever other readers then please fill your boots
…………………..The floor is yours – we all look forward to hearing something from you in the very near future
Jonnie
I agree with PeeBee here, I am a young agent and learn alot from these rambling...and the 'sarcasm'....well as PeeBee put it, you cant help but smirk. cheers jonnie. Liam
....did I just sign off?
Funny, innit - I'd MUCH rather read Jonnie's insane ramblings than the usual crap that houses are going to be worth less than Mars Bars by Christmas! I suppose it's down to individual tastes, really - however our forefathers fought and died for Jonnie's right to free speech, so I will continue to read him along with the Mars Bar brigade. Suggest you do also, as under all the wrapping there's some very valid points he makes - with free smirks along the way! ;0)
And once again you don't fail my expectations.
Erm…..im a bit shocked by this, don’t know what to say really……………oh that’s it, top of your browser – little cross, click it and you wont have to put up with EAT anymore – as for me – well, don’t read the stuff I write, now run along to B&Q, buy your self a spanner and loosen your arse a couple of turns.
Jonnie
Jonnie is becoming as predictable and boring as EAT is.
What a nice fella you must be to have around aye? Sarcasm is a really unfortunate trait to have bags of. Overuse of such a trait makes one into a right royal first class a-hole.
It really doesn't make you look clever mister.
BREAKING NEWS
…….just seen the BBC website, im sure the story will hit here tomorrow but it’s the patches on the elbows brigade managing to get a worldwide headline…………..yup, it’s that time of the month already, the RICS survey is out!!
Now the basics are as follows;
265 Old boys were asked, (we’ll presume they all stayed awake long enough)
50% said there was no change in prices
44% said prices went down – not sure how much but downs not up its down so don’t worry about the detail
6% said prices were up
So there we are – that’s conclusive evidence, im also picking some numbers out of my behind on this (seems we all can nowadays) – if each RICS estate agency member sold say 5 houses each in that period that headline is based on 1325 sales arranged, with over 51,000 mortgages approved in that period then 2.5% of sales are being used as the barometer.
Brilliant – now would all the ‘prices will fall 300%’ lot begin their frenzy of pant wetting when ready but before you get all in a lather remember less than half of 2.5% of sales indicate prices are falling.
Jonnie
GlosAgent: "We are valuing properties below other agents, but we are selling." That's not exactly good salesmanship, is it? If the competitive advantage you have to offer is that you can only sell like-for-like properties when they are cheapest in your marketplace, then vendors will hardly fall over themselves to come to you. Saw many react like this in the early '90s - you will end up with a reputation that is hard to shake off... Oh - and please don't argue the "doing the best for the client" slant. Doing the best for the client is getting the BEST price in the market. Can you honestly say that purchasers wouldn't have paid another thousand or so? It would have paid some of your fee, at least...
Judging by some of the comments posted here you would have been better off on the Jeremy Kyle show...!!
Welcome back, Emma - I've really missed your...erm... "input". Pity you apparently cannot do your own dirty work, Sweetcheeks. But hey - bring it on, swatters - others have tried, and I'm still rollin'! ;0)
The problem is when 6 months becomes 12 months, then 24 months.
This week we have started actively asking people who have had property on our books for more than 18 months to reduce price or find a new agent. We are valuing properties below other agents, but we are selling. We have more Sold signs up than anyone else. Potential vendors know this.
As long as vendors price realistically then we can sell.
Whilst I hope things pick up, I honestly expect to be on here in a years time with yearly falls of 10-12% facing another tough winter.
Strange, in Septemeber we sold more property than July & August and possibly one of our best months of the year, which makes me wonder if this report about Septemeber price falls is linked more to the July & August traditional summer holiday lull, than any real change in the market. That said, October started well too, until the Halifax reported the 3.6% price drop! Since then, activity has virtually stopped and we haven't sold anything since!
Maybe we were lucky in Septemeber, but if we are not careful, the country will talk itself into another big fall.
Personally, I wonder if things will settle again next week after the big cuts announcement and people will have a better idea if they directly effected or not. The worry is that the next seasonal lull is about to kick off and this will only add to the media frenzy about a falling market! Ho hum.
Most of us that are still here, have got through 2008 & 2009, so another tough 6-months ahead should be manageable. Let's just stay focused and positive. Remember the old saying "Safe as houses" I know where I would rather put my money, even if the market dips from time to time!
You're right, Monkeynuts. I've been amazed at some of the price falls in my area (Gloucestershire). A couple of months more and places might actually be affordable. Oh, there seems to be a Bee around here. Could somebody swat it?
If they are nor reducing their prices, then they are daft. In Gloucestershire if people aren't reducing prices then they simply won't sell the house.
And that includes the nice Regency areas of Cheltenham and the mansions in the Cotswolds.
WOW! Soon they may even hit rock bottom - and join your IQ...
what a load of VI BS this site is. prices are going down and fast.
Whahey!! Just had a look at the weather for the weekend!
Looks great where I am, ill definitely get out with the kids, might wash the car and could even be right for a bit of grass cutting, not so sure about a bit further North and bits of Scotland look as dreary as ever but I don’t really care because im not up there.
…………………………this brings me to the house price surveys which are a bit like weather forecasts and how we read them
In rented buyers waiting for prices to drop are like people who’s worst enemy is getting married this weekend – they want it to chuck it down and are so bonkers and cross they love a bad forecast.
The vendors who over mortgaged and should have sold up are either going to get heavy rain or they have an umbrella (which most of them got given) in the form of low interest rates so they refuse to budge and will stay at home, nice and dry.
The vendors with a ton of equity that might move out of choice / if they feel like it are all so far away from the market and un touched by bad weather they are actually on a sun drenched holiday so they don’t care what the weather is doing here.
The agents will never agree as the weather differs so much between areas so we can stop trying to find a common opinion………………………..we can just leave it to the weather bores (who never call it right anyway) to themselves to bang on about how they always knew it would happen blah blah.
Meanwhile if the forecasters get it wrong it doesn’t matter they can change their mind / quote half baked predictions and be accountable to no one
Anyway, regardless of what the forecasts say don’t listen to them, have a look out the window where you are and see what it looks like locally.
Jonnie
This is my personal opinion.
Many buyers are also sellers and if they bought during the last 5-7 years with a high mortgage they CANNOT reduce by very much, whatever agents say. They will stick unless it is a fire sale.
Try telling someone in that postion to reduce their £200K high mortgaged house by 10/20%! By the way your commission would not be affected by very much in comparison so I can understand your point of view.
P.S. Land Registry, by region, is the only real guide.
Over the next two years there will be a shortage of funding. We are going to be killed on sales numbers unless prices drop.
If the average mortgage is £200k for every £1m of funding available that is only 5 sales.
If the average is £100k that's 10 sales per £1m.
Go figure which generates more sales commission and subsequent sales from those sales. The more people who can afford to buy and need smaller mortgages the better.
Taff, hence why i said earlier we must get away from national stats which distort our day to day jobs with managing vendors expectations. Prices 5 miles away in a small village from my town are 2/3% up year on year compared to my town is back to July 2006 prices. I respect your views Taff as every market place is different but make no bones about it prices are heading south and will be for many months to come and we need to accpet that and those who accpet it early and act now will be the ones who survive like we saw in 2008. Those who think it will pick up in the new year will be the ones who's office windows will be whitewashed.
Believe it or not I am an estate agent, and have been for 25yrs. Prices changing weekly - sorry but that's bollox.
Berkshire Agent. I can only say the market in your neck of the woods is different to mine - which is why an average for the whole of the UK is meaningless. Here owners are reluctant to drop their prices. They're not daft, they know things are slow but generally they are reluctant to drop their price, as are quite happy to wait for things to improve, which is probably why the number of sales is down 50% on the same time last year. The ones that are selling however, are generally getting the same prices or even slightly above. Believe it or not average prices in my county are 4% higher than a year ago.
Radio 2 Jermey Vine Show. - Well said Trevor.
Well I can tell you that in the North of the country many agents are reporting Christmas levels of activity, with many sellers happy to wait until the New Year before deciding to do anything with their asking prices - it seems as though they are waiting for a white knight to come and magic up activity and pre-recession prices. I think I may ask Santa for a little extra in my stocking this year :-) Cannot believe I have mentioned this in October - sorry guys, but it seems to have gone to sleep up here.
Now look here, folk, I am just about to go on the Jeremy Vine Show on Radio 2 at about 1.15. What on earth am I going to say?!!
Hope you are still selling. Big T.
Guys please get real and face the facts prices are dropping and dropping fast, land registry figures are 2/3 months out of date. What was selling for £350,000 in May is now selling from £310/£315k. What was selling for £575k in May is now selling for £525k & these figures are yet to be put on "land registry figures" also "3.6% drops in September" is national, not regional nor is it local and all our market places are very different. Leeds is circa 25/30% down from peak of 2007 prices where as central London is 5/10% up from peak prices in 2007.
On the shop floor this morning and across our office prices are down and by some 10% i reckon since May 2010. Everything we are reducing is by no less than 7/8% after having given it 125% to find a buyer at what we felt was a realistic price. We need to face the facts that its all become to expensive in general, banks are not lending and likey to lend even less which in turn is bringing the prices down. In the words of Henry Prior "price are dropping and they are dropping so fast it like parachuting in the dark. You dont know when or how long it will take before you hit the bottom".
Get reducing and make sure its a minimum of 10% and you'll see the sales start happening again.
Land Reg Figures are definitive. However, if volumes are thin then distortion will occur. As ever there are lies, damn lies and statistics....
You cannot be an estate agent! Prices can change quickly. Prices can change weekly. Try and keep up with the market.
If houses dont sell within 8 weeks the probable reason is it is friggin overpriced and you are the person who would probably go out and overpice in the first place.
Right, I'm in a bad mood now. Given the glacial speed the property market moves, is it really such a big problem that Land Registry figures are 3 months old? No. If I'm valuing a house today, I'm not going to lose any sleep because the best comparable I've got is the one next door but it happened to sell 5 months ago. Lets be honest, values aren't going to change that fast.
the land reg clearly disagrees with this, ave price is higher and still marginally rising. Poor article
Perhaps, rantnrave, EAT did not report the Halifax figures yesterday because it does not come out on a Thursday. So much for bias! Blame the messenger if you want to keep ranting and raving, though. Of course agents can sell more houses if prices go down. If we are any good at our job, we also sell when prices are rising, but whatever, we prefer to have a moan at the media. What about the PR company that takes its shilling from all and sundry who want to see their contradictory nonsense and their names in the headlines?
Land REgistry is the only conclusive survey based on every completion recorded, shame its a snapshot of 3/4 months ago, only by cutting the lengthy sales process will we ever get more upto date conclusive figures.
EAT - please stop headlining this. In the big picture of things it is garbage and represents only a small 'survey'
To everyone - please stop talking the market down - it is becoming self fulfilling - things are difficult eneough as it is.
No, I am not with my head in the sand and have been in the business for nearly 40 years - good times and bad, just stay positive and get on with it!
Bloody hell. If I had any hair left I would be pulling it out. When will people realise that the only figures that count are the Land Registry figures. Figures from Nationwide, or Halifax etc will ONLY deal with a portion of the bigger picture by definition. Just because the average value of mortgage applications made to say the Halifax is down this month, it doesn't mean that values across the country are down. It really makes you wonder sometimes how intelligent these people are, or with my cynical head on, they want to report conflicting reports. As they say "good news is no news". I'm not suggesting talking the market up, just report the big picture, not just a part of the big picture and passing that off as a national trend. .... And breathe.
Oh pur-leeze. This is absolutely shameless. Your site revealed its bias by not reporting the Halifax figures yesterday, trying to sweep the year's biggest house price story under the carpet. Today you've come out with this half-baked tripe to try and present the Halifax figures as somehow out of touch.
I think you'll find it is your coverage that is out of touch. Congratulations for being so behind the curve. Estate Agents can make a lot of money when house prices fall, can they not? Encouraging sellers to lower their prices means more houses are sold and ergo more commission.
Alternatively, Estate Agents could follow your example, try to wish away yesterday's news, sell two houses next month and promptly go out of business.
You fools...
It's important not to confuse levels/changes in activity with levels/changes in price.
A drop in activity doesn't necessarily mean a drop in prices - which are determined by, amongst other things, the relative strength of buyers vs sellers.
The time for talking the market is up is over Mr Rollings. The sooner agents face up to reality, the sooner we can get on with selling again.