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Stamp duty surcharge rakes in twice as much revenue as expected

The government has admitted that the three per cent stamp duty surcharge has raked in twice as much as expected.

In November 2015, five months before the introduction of the controversial surcharge last April, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that the measure would bring in around £700m in 2016-17.

However, revised OBR forecasts released in the small print of last week’s Budget reveal that it is expected to bring in £1.4 billion instead - precisely twice the original expectation.


The revelation, discovered by the Daily Telegraph, continues with upgraded forecasts of the surcharge revenue anticipated for 2017-18 and future years.

The Telegraph says that next year the surcharge is forecast to bring in £1.7 billion, with £1.8 billion in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and then £1.9 billion in 2020-21. “That means the tax is now in line to bring in £8.6 billion over its first five years in operation, almost double the £4.6 billion initially forecast” explains Telegraph journalist Tim Wallace.

The OBR forecast for total stamp duty revenue on property in 2016-17, which is now drawing to a close, is £11.6 billion in this financial year; by 2021-22 it will be £17 billion.

“Back in 2008-09 it only raised £4.8 billion indicating the scale of the rise as stamp duty has been tweaked and house prices have soared” notes Wallace.

  • Brit Sixteen Sixty Four

    I believe the amount the government will get will fall as house prices correct downwards as the housing bubble deflates.


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