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Market sentiment dips - but still up on immediately after Brexit vote

Most householders taking part in a sentiment survey by estate agency Knight Frank say they believe the value of their home has risen in the past month.

The agency’s survey of 1,500 households, carried out by research firm IHS Markit, found that although the optimism in the latest October figure is slightly lower than that of a month ago, it is substantially above that registered in the immediate aftermath of the EU Referendum in the summer.

Respondents in 10 of the 11 regions covered by the index believe prices increased over the course of the month, and most remain confident that the value of their home will rise over the next 12 months.

Households in the South West of England are the most confident about price rises, followed by those in the South East and London.

“The key message from October’s survey data is that UK housing market sentiment has recovered strongly this autumn from the post-referendum jitters seen during the summer” says Tim Moore, senior economist at IHS Markit.

“There were signs of resilience across all UK regions, with households in the south of England most confident that property values will rise over the next 12 months” he added.

“Lower interest rates and stable mortgage availability have acted as shock absorbers for household sentiment in recent months. However, expectations for house price growth are softer than in the first half of 2016, suggesting that affordability constraints and Brexit uncertainty are still putting the brakes on price momentum” according to Moore.

“The index has dipped slightly in October, but the significant uptick in sentiment since the vote to leave the EU is highlighted by the data” explains Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.

“This month, some 12 per cent of households said they expected the value of their home to fall over the next 12 months, down from the 23 per cent seen in the month after the Brexit vote” she says.

“Another signal of households’ rising confidence is that the proportion of those who would like to buy a home within the next 12 months has risen to six per cent, up from 4.6 per cent in October last year.

“The housing market across the UK as a whole is being underpinned by lack of supply and ultra-low mortgage rates.”

  • Jon  Tarrey

    This kind of data makes my brain hurt, especially on a Monday. They all seem to say something different and contradict themselves at the same time. After reading it, I'm still no clearer what the outlook is.

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