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A great part of the UK housing market's charm is its unpredictability. It makes it an exciting (and, granted, at times incredibly frustrating) world to be involved in - whether you are, like myself, a professional working within it or a first time buyer looking to get your first foot on the housing ladder.

We at Convey Law have endeavoured to bring some method to this madness by gathering data from over the last eight years with a view to improving the predictability of the market.

We have found that in a normal' year transactions begin to gather pace in January, eventually coming to a peak in March, April and May. This is followed by a lull over the summer months of June, July and August, due to this being the holiday season. This then tends to be followed by a short resurgence in September and October. Towards the end of the year, in November and December, transactions often begin to decrease (by 75% and 50% respectively), compared to the overall monthly average, in the lead up to Christmas.

However, to turn this on its head, in 2015 none of the above holds - because 2015 is the year it's all happening

Like the Icelandic ash cloud which led to a dip in UK property sales back in 2010, significant events this year - such as the 2015 General Elections - and large scale sporting events - such as the Rugby World Cup - will inevitably have an impact on the usual course of events. Here's how

In General Election years potential homebuyers and sellers alike will tend to wait until after the election has taken place before making their move. Ironically, studies have found that people do not actually believe that the outcome of an election will have an effect on their purchase or sale (I'd argue that this year will be an exception to this rule) - but prefer to wait all the same.

What this ultimately means is that in 2015, the peak we usually see in March, April and May will come later - perhaps leading to higher than normal transaction figures during the summer months.

The second annual peak which usually takes place immediately following the summer may also be disrupted - with the advent of the Rugby World Cup - with the habitual pick-up in activity at this time once again being pushed back to November or even December.

In both cases, this will contribute to the year's relatively unremarkable performance - but this should not be seen as a concern. Indeed, steady growth is after all what we ultimately want to achieve and, besides, we have come such a long way in the last 12 months that taking it a little easier in the next can do no harm.

*Lloyd Davies is a member of the Conveyancing Association Executive Committee and Managing Director at Convey Law


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