We’re told that the Bank of England can’t do without it when it comes to setting interest rates – it being the RICS monthly house price survey.
And only yesterday, the BBC described it as having its ‘finger on the pulse’.
Furthermore, journalists take it so seriously that they don’t even stop in the midst of their cutting and pasting to ask themselves whether it makes sense – or even if they actually understand it.
Hence this gem from the Telegraph: “For the UK as a whole, a majority of surveyors said prices were declining but the balance improved from -26 to -23.”
Meaning what exactly?
Given that just 259 surveyors, selling under three houses a month each, contributed to this week’s survey, isn’t it time that the RICS monthly offering stopped garnering so many unquestioning headlines?
However, to be even-handed, EAT would like to dish out further brickbats to the CLG for continuing to bring out a survey that is behind the time, is funded by taxpayers and serves only to confuse.
It continues to come out despite the fact that CLG itself acknowledges that ‘official’ surveys are muddling and come up with different data. In fact, a report into the surveys was due to have been published at the end of last year, but seems to have sunk without trace, perhaps under the weight of surveys.
Yesterday, CLG reported that house prices rose 0.3% in February to an average property price of £204,164 – mystifyingly higher than the other ‘official’ survey from the Land Registry.
Average house prices in February stood at £211,859 in England, £146,793 in Northern Ireland, £158,907 in Scotland and £144,834 in Wales.
The CLG said that if London and the South-East were excluded from the figures, the average UK house price in February was £168,538, a drop of 1% over the year.
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Comments
I do remember reading the results of an economic survey done a couple of years ago, where questions about expectations and personal finances were interspersed. As market researchers well know, the questions can be ordered in such a way as to reveal the inconsistencies people have in their thinking. Thus, it was revealed that while most people expected house prices in their town and the street they lived on to decline over the next 12 months, a majority also expected that their property would increase in price!
@Jonnie.
Thanks for the heads up on Will Hicks and the wry humour. I'm off to the other thread to see what the heck is going on. I needed picking up today, alot of running around reecently with very little to show trying to get vendors to see sense with prices. Oh so very true ......
"I spend all day smiling politely at clients that seem to think they have the only property that defies all market trends, whilst calmly helping them understand that it doesn’t, I spend time and effort to demonstrate to my developer clients that what they brought the land for in 2008 does not reflect what the units are worth now, I also have the pleasure of sometimes being a councillor to my property management team who take verbal abuse"…………………
I must admit, I find the CLG's methodology mystifying; rather than basing their figures on all transactions equally as LR does, it instead places weight on actual expenditure; because prices in the SE are generally more expensive it is that that is reflected in their averages. Hence the massive discrepancy between the two's average house price. Or something like that.
Of course, as a HPCer, I would favour the LR index :p
@David Keyes
How far up your own a**e are you? You cannot possibly consider estate agency as a profession in the same class as doctors and lawyers! And as far as Jonnie goes, he’s far from my ‘cup of tea’ but is normally well informed and mildly entertaining. I suggest his hubristic style is slightly tongue in cheek, and whilst not wanting to stray from the point and encourage or endorse him you will find you cannot actually spell embarrassment, you come across as an up tight, humourless self important, poorly educated ignorant idiot that places your spiv like job in the same class a doctor!!!
@Jonnie
So you class your childish exchanges with Will Hicks as debate? What an embarassment. I wonder if doctors, lawyers, other professions spend their working time talking about dog turds. Like I said, clowns like you paint us all in a bad light.
As you noted, I posted before in my own time because I'm generally quite busy in the office. Like today. Good to see business is brisk for you too.
Ta ta.
David,
Embarrasing? – Not sure you can even spell it!
You are of course right; I have pushed it to far again and as you have decided to appoint yourself as head boy I shall respect your advice and stop being nasty to Will Hicks, although he’s gone all quiet anyway I think so the fun has gone out of it all.
Now, I like being able to express my views, I like to engage with the public on here and add something to the debate and discussion, I do think I have even found common ground on many issues with some pretty prolific HPC’ers, as far as declaring who I am, well no, that would be silly of me.
I spend all day smiling politely at clients that seem to think they have the only property that defies all market trends, whilst calmly helping them understand that it doesn’t, I spend time and effort to demonstrate to my developer clients that what they brought the land for in 2008 does not reflect what the units are worth now, I also have the pleasure of sometimes being a councillor to my property management team who take verbal abuse over broken washing machines only to find out that the plumber we arranged noticed it was switched off at the wall……………………so, its nice to come on here and mess with the Will Hick’s of the world anomalously, sort of letting off a bit of steam, he’s not the first and wont be the last mindless prat on here and he is certainly fair game.
But, let’s hear where you are from, and then Will and his agent hating mates will have somewhere to post turds to, once you have done that then have a stab at bringing some comment to one of the debates here.
Of course if you are Will Hicks in disguise, sitting on this site at nearly half 12 at night then im sure you will vanish off and go all quiet………………….
Jonnie
@Jonnie
What a load of rot. Please stop, I'm cringing reading this rubbish, you're embarrasing yourself and the profession.
Members of the public have been known to frequent this site. Maybe you'd be kind enough to tell them who you work for? That way they can avoid you and deal with an agent who's out of short trousers.
My advice to you, argue a point intelligently or keep it zipped.
So, Will Hicks,
You still not going to let us all know what you do then? And ill have to conclude your manner and general ‘tosspottery’ (that was for you PeeBee) suggests my suspicions about Mrs Hicks are on the money?
Come on mate, let us know what you fill your day with otherwise we will all be assuming you have a dull little dead end job that pays very little and you have to fill the void coming on an estate agents blog and………………….…………..well, im not sure what you do here, you don’t really say much, you aren’t abusive / controversial enough to be fun, you don’t even seem to have an opinion except you don’t like us and you appear to just be a cross little chap that’s not very articulate or, well……………..you’re not very anything?!
………………oh, god, ive got it…..there is no Mrs Hicks is there? You live at home with your parents don’t you? Single bed in the room you’ve had since you were a kid?
Im sorry mate, didn’t realise.
Jonnie
PS – Minesweeper - What is it, how do I play / find it?
Jonnie, back to mine sweeper you chump. I bet you could hear a pin drop in your office.
Jonnie - I'd agree with everything you've said there (well, I don't know much about Will Hicks). I'm of the opinion though that this country's media has presented the stubborn vendors' point of view much more than that of the priced-out younger generation.
Oi, Oi hang on………..
What’s all this agents don’t like upwards only indexes? More of you that do not have a clue about the job – talking of that good to see our new ‘rent a berk’ Will Hicks here, were all waiting for some answers from you pal on the other discussion, chop, chop get over to the American thing and tell us what amazing job you do and whether an estate agent really did leave your Mrs looking like a painters radio at some point.
Anyway, think of it like this – Rant, Sibley and all you lot are one side of a market, ill call you ‘Militant Buyers’ you know best, no one can say otherwise and you will jolly well buy when you are ready.
…………….but we have the other side of the coin, just as bloody stubborn, just as determined that they are right and no one else is and that’s the sellers / vendors / fee paying customers, like HPC guys love bad news this lot love good news and as its them we all need to act as they (and not the agents before you start) control the stock in this business it helps when they become realistic.
So, to my point, agents have just as hard a job managing the expectation of the vendors as we do balancing the view of buyers and having everyone singing off the same hymn sheet helps
Jonnie
The Bank of England do take notice of the RICS Survey because for many years now it has been proved to be remarkably accurate. They like it because it comes from real people who sell and survey houses and is reporting on what is happenning out there in the Housing Market at the present time, as against the out of date historical data which most other surveys rely upon.
It refers to data collected from 259 correspondents however of course, this data covers firms from 1 office to hundreds of offices throughout the UK. I filled in my forms for many years now and these covered 5 offices of Chartered Surveyors & Estate Agents.
As other respondents have said before there are damned lies and statistics, however The B of E wouldn't have used them for well over 10 years now if they weren't useful
@Pee Bee - I'm predicting others will back up the point.
You know us HPC lot are always ahead of the game ; )
@Neil - an observation I posted on another thread:
Acadametrics latest release suggested that prices were essentially unchanged from a year ago (in nominal terms). However, the guys at Acadamagictrix failed to mention that to get that flat figure they revised their average price for Feb 2010 down by 2.5%!
"We’re told that the Bank of England can’t do without it"
Not sure the BoE would rely on a survey produced by a price based commission collective with an obvious vested interest to keep prices as high as they can.
Agents do not like indices full stop. When they were showing prices going up, there was always the chance that between agreed sale and exchange of contracts, the seller would simply turn round and say my property is worth more, so pay me more! Back to square one for the agent..,.
What I would like to know is what the statistical error on these surveys is. (There must be one, as they are all modelled or sampled to some degree.) Then these small changes they keep talking about, may just dissappear within that 'margin of error'.
rantnrave: "I agree with other posters here who point out that there was no calls from EAs for regional indices when prices were increasing across the country 10% plus YoY."
That was postER, rant - singular, not plural. And he seems like one of your crowd, so it's hardly surprising you flock together... ;oS
Next you'll be agreeing with Mr Peter Hendry. On second thoughts, apologies for that insinuation - you've got FAR more common sense than that, mate!
A push for regional indices right now is likely to draw attention to and further highlight the degree of price falls taking place every where outside of London.
I agree with other posters here who point out that there was no calls from EAs for regional indices when prices were increasing across the country 10% plus YoY.
I want a survey of surveys - maybe that'll sort it out.
There are lies, damned lies & statistics
National averages do not count for very much - it is the regions/areas and types of property that do?
Land Reg screw up by only sampling (ie. not using every transaction) and by seasonally adjusting (why?).
Just give us the hard data & let us derive the trends thank-you.
Oh, and errr...sack all the CLG staff that produce their guff.
Funny that nobody had a problem with the proliferation of different surveys when all were showing large price rises year on year. It all amounted to free advertising shouting "buy, buy, buy" every time you opened a newspaper.
Prices are now falling, the free advertising is shouting "don't buy, don't buy, don't buy" and suddenly we have a problem.
In my opinion people can see it with their own eyes so it doesn't really matter whether we have dozens or only one government controlled (?) measure.
Lies, damn lies and statistics!!!! I hope no one is suggesting that RICS do not know what they are talking about......