Housing expert Henry Pryor has warned agents that the chances of houses selling this year are less than 40%.
He warned that those who had raised asking prices had “completely misread the market”.
Pryor was speaking on BBC TV News after this week’s Rightmove survey showed that asking prices for houses new to the market in the last four weeks are 3.1% higher than in January.
Pryor said: “Worryingly, Rightmove saw 121,635 new homes come to the market, a 35% jump on last year. But volumes of sales have not risen by a similar amount, leaving an over-hang of property for sale which will put downward pressure on sale prices.”
The gap between asking prices and actual prices is huge: the average asking price on Rightmove is now £230,030. According to the Land Registry, the average selling price is currently £68,846 lower at £163,184.
For the whole of last year, HMRC has announced that it recorded just 884,000 sales with 560,000 mortgages. Some 43% of all homes on the market found a buyer.
Pryor believes that percentage will go a little lower this year.
Meanwhile, mortgages approved for home purchase in January were 29% down on a year ago, said the British Bankers Association.
The banks approved just 28,932 loans for house purchase in January.
Lending is not expected to loosen up, with new warnings that 'mortgage portability' has become a real problem.
People hoping to move home are often finding their present lenders unwilling to transfer loans to a new property even if the borrowers have an unblemished record of payment. Lenders are put off if the borrowers' circumstances have changed, and for example, they have started a family since the original loan was approved.
David Hollingworth, of mortgage broker London & Country, said: "We have always said, that while lenders say loans are portable, don’t just assume that you can switch it to a new property. People are finding that they are locked into their current deal and cannot move."
Hollingworth also cited a reduction in maximum age for older borrowers and withdrawal of interest-only loans by many lenders as reasons why lenders won’t transfer a mortgage to a new property.
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Comments
RR: "...as an experienced surveyor and former estate agent myself, I have found trying to make progress in discussions with several of you, one of the most frustrating experiences imaginable."
We share your frustration. Had YOU, however, ANSWERED ANY of our MANY, MANY questions that dared to unearth your idiotic schemes as quackery, then at least we would not have been frustrated.
You, Sir, however, would have been shown in your true colours FAR,FAR quicker than this painful exercise has dragged out for...
Guess what. As a member of the public, a service user, call me what you want, I can assure you that the next time I want to market a property, it will be done through my local, hardworking, trusty ESTATE AGENT and NOT through your remote, poorly thought-out, unheard-of, massively unprofessional in both design AND content, and apparently ILLEGAL website!!
Your rantings certainly haven't achieved your goal with THIS Joe Public member!
RR, if Joe Public came into my office and started spouting the mishmash of random thoughts and untenable ideas as you have here, with the attitude you have towards my chosen profession he would be courteously asked to leave. If he continued, he would find me more than happy to assist him out the door with a stiletto up his rear.
How many people on this site agree on everything? Agents and non-Agents. And yet, for the most part, the debates and exchanges are polite, professional and informative.
You however, insist that we are rude, childish and unhelpful and don't know what we're talking about.
Excuse me for not fawning over you and agreeing with your every word.
*curtseys*
Actually the latest OFT report on Estate Agents was complimentary.
Advertising is frustrating game, especially if one has a weak concept or poor product; you have both! Your distain for those you need to collaborate with is obvious and doesn’t help
Give up!
Realising Reality: Oh, dear! Your wounds too deep for mere licking, then?
Pray tell me this. I am NOT an Estate Agent, but have been one of the biggest and most tenacious thorns in your paw. As I'm not in the universally despised industry you think Estate Agency is, how will the people I come into daily contact view me?
PS - don't forget your dummy on the way out. It's on the floor right where you spat it!! ;0)
Feedback:
Just in case anyone here is interested, as an experienced surveyor and former estate agent myself, I have found trying to make progress in discussions with several of you, one of the most frustrating experiences imaginable.
All I can say is, no wonder the general public have a rather low opinion of estate agents when it comes to having to deal with them over their house sale and/or purchase.
Maybe all you need to do to get the full glass is negotiate properly hun! ;-)
Just don't think that you'll be getting 60% off.
I'm glad I decided to start posting, being reading you guys for months, then figured I would see if I could keep pace with you all. Pleasantly surprised that I don't seem to be doing too bad so far!
CL: ONKΌDIS is Greek for MASSIVE! Seeing as 'kudos' comes from the Greek, I thought I would follow the thread. You deserved massive respect!
Mr RR seems to think that the Estate Agency world is his nemesis. That need not be the case, were he to simply try to fit in there, instead of wading in, indiscriminately slinging mud on the entire profession and offering crackpot remedies.
The man is the property industry equivalent of a charlatan (of which there have been many that post their "miracle cures" on this site...). A quack - pure and simple. His "pills for all ills" offer NO benefit - in fact they will kill what is, at worst, a market feeling under the weather; hungover and wanting the room to stop spinning - exactly as ANYONE feels after the best party ever!
Despite many, many Estate Agents continually pleading with him not to embarrass himself further; not to continue spouting the magic his head is full of, he keeps on at it. HPCers love him, of course - why wouldn't they?
What REALLY eats him up, though, is that he still doesn't understand why I, a non-Agent, have dug my teeth so firmly into his rump and refuse to let go (despite the taste...). Funny that - because I cannot for the life of me understand how HE, Mr know-all-and-saviour-of-the-housing-market 'retired' Chartered Surveyor tries so hard to shake little insignificant me off - and can't even manage THAT!
Speaks volumes as to how effective he will be as the next Housing Minister, dunnit?
I'll take the response to my proposal as a "maybe", eh? ;0) You know me - ALWAYS half full...
PeeBee
PeeBee - ONKΌDIS ?? What does that mean?
PeeBee, my darling, I am sorry to cause you distress by spurning your advance but I feel my husband would not approve either!
I did notice the post by Jonnie, and wondered if it was the person you mentioned. I'm looking forward to it!
Still waiting for a reply to my e-mail though. Just cause someone's down is no reason to stop kicking them!
(and before anyone questions my sanity in providing my e-mail address to 'it', I created a new hotmail address just for him!)
Country Lass: MARRY ME!!!! (...just don't tell my missus...) ;0)
I KNEW you were going to be good fun to have round! You will be delighted to hear that, after a protracted absence (therapy ain't quick these days...) Jonnie has re-surfaced this morning as well. So "grab hold and enjoy the ride" when he gets into gear with Mr RR et al...
Kudos. ONKΌDIS kudos, CL ;0D
And my reply..
You honestly don't understand my point do you? Vendors will not accept that. It is a 'keeping up with the Jones' thing. You are telling EVERY SINGLE vendor to take 60% off the price. In the case of our fictional house, that would be £150k.
It is attitudes and 'ideas' like that that risk destabilising the market. Do you think ANYONE in their right mind would try to sell in that scenario? People would not look to sell at all, Agents, Surveyours, Conveyancers, Removal firms etc, would cease to exist (that includes you by the way) and we might as well just napalm the whole country. Can you imagine what would happen? Take away your prejudice towards my industry and allow yourself to picture the scenario.
Jobs will be lost.
People can no longer move to find work.
People will have to remortgage on assests that have 'no' value, so they will be stuck paying higher mortgage costs.
They will fall behind on their repayments and be repossessed.
Except....
Either no-one will buy them OR bidding wars will erupt, 'distorting the market' as you put it and seeing studio flats go for more than a 6bed in London is currently marketed for.
And then it starts again, when those people need to move to find work.
Did I ask you to put out-dated information on your webiste? No. Do I want you to? Hell no! As Wardy and others pointed out, the information you are providing is incorrect, inaccurate and illegal.
And unfortunately I have no interest in meeting with you. No, I am not from the north. I would however be interested in seeing your replies to PeeBee's questions, as you did say you would attend to him afterwards...
CL
A response from RR, when I e-mailed his 'website'!
Hello Country Lass,
You said:
Right Mr R, what has you confused? Nothing.
All the historical stats (such as land registry sold stats) show is that previously people were able to purchase a house at that price. Yes.
Things change. Therefore a buyer may not be able to pay the same amount for yours as 6 months ago. Yes, if prices have fallen.
When they have fallen, you, as an agent should be mindful of that, and take that fully into account in any appraisal, assuming you genuinely plan to sell the house for the price you take it on at.
So say you need to sell your house within 3 months and someone comes along and offers £60k less
your figures, not mine) are you going to take it? Of course not!
If the value has fallen, I would 'have' to take the lower price. This just needs to be carefully explained to the vendor-client, by someone who fully understands the position and can explain it.
All good agents should be able to overcome a sales objection of this nature.
Of course, if the vendor is also buying elsewhere, the same (lower) values will apply so s'he shouldn't be too far out of pocket as a result.
I hope this helps. If there are still matters we appear to disagree on, I'd suggest you, me and perhaps one of the others all met up sometime, if it not too far. Are you all up North?
It's an idea anyway, because I don't want disagreements and I doubt you do either. There should be a way to iron this out for everyone's benefit, I would have thought?
We don't 'scrape' info., by the way. We only use what is legitimately findable online, for the benefit of all Internet users. It's part of the service we, like others, offer online.
With regards,
Peter Hendry
Dear Mr Hendry
The developers have looked at your request, yes it s possible for us to scrape and spider every portal and individual property website in the land.
It is fairly simple for us to reduce all asking prices to a standard 60% of their current asking price.
I think this is a brilliant idea and I am sure you will get the publicity you are seekings. The link to HPC.com is no problems either.
I have to say I am a bit cautious about payment because without vendor approval I am not sure they will all agreeing to a 40% reductions and as you don't have an agency agreement with anyone other than your half sister in Cornwall, I would be grateful if you would please settle my account before we start coding..
Cheers
Farquit
Bangalor Softwear Solooshons
RR: I take that as an admission, then, that you want EVERY PROPERTY in the land to come down to the affordability of yer average FTB - EXCEPT YOURS!
I wonder if you will now acknowledge the resistance - Lo and behold - a prospective vendor who doesn't like your idea. One who DOESN'T WANT to subscribe to your crackpot remedy for the housing market plight.
AND YOU CAN'T SAY ONE OF US POSTED UNDER A PSEUDONYM!!!
Poor Sibley's... - I'm not looking forward to telling him the deal is off. His wife and family will be devastated...
Sorry about the delay folks.
Right Mr R, what has you confused? All the historical stats (such as land registry sold stats) show is that previously people were able to purchase a house at that price. Things change. Therefore a buyer may not be able to pay the same amount for yours as 6 months ago. So say you need to sell your house within 3 months and someone comes along and offers £60k less (your figures, not mine) are you going to take it? Of course not!
And 2) they are my pictures, my listings and my descriptions. Get your own.
Sorry folks,
This has now become childish and pathetic.
If you want any more useful debate, move onto my blog site.
I'm not spending any more time on this.
RR: Of course, I would NOT expect to push the queue in front of such a lovely lady as Country Lass. I am also pleased to see that you have finally realised that her chosen site name is not "County..." - but then, reading what people write is not and never has been your strength...
I am extremely disappointed that you seek to hide behind a tiny technicality in the lady's post to avoid the question. Not gentlemanly - and not clever.
If, however, you seriously, honestly, cannot understand where she is coming from, then I sincerely and unequivocably apologise for wrongly labelling you as an ungentlemanly, dumb disappointment - but would then have to state that it is, instead, ABSOLUTE PROOF that you are unfit to carry on doing what you do.
Take your pick. Rock or hard place - YOU jammed yourself in between them...
JUST ANSWER HER QUESTION!
THEN... you can answer MINE. Not all those others I have previously asked and been ignored (I have a LONG list if you ever feel up to it...) - just the last one. Remember - the one you promised to address after Country Girl's. THE ONE I AIN'T GOING TO LET YOU WRIGGLE OUT OF!!
Hurry up - Sibley's and his Missus is starting to pack in readiness...
I think you will find that all I have done is given you some sound advice.
Take an honest look in the mirror, talk to those close to you and ask them to brutally honest with you.
Ring NHS direct and give them the list of your obvious symptoms.
If you are lucky after proper and qualified consultation and you are given a clean bill of health you need to apologise for being a malicious, belligerent, mal-content old man.
RR when I am near a computer, I will respond. I am currently on my phone
If we are doing this in questions asked order you might remember?
Of all the properties you have had on your books, as valued by you or the other execs, how many have you purchased because they remain unsold 3 months after you listed them?
This story will drop off the radar tomorrow, perhaps the true nature of the parasite troll which is emerging here ought to become a story in its own right.
Someone who has evidence of their properties appearing on Prattling Pete's site would do well to alert Ros.
Dear Mr Wardy:
If you feel, for any reason, unhappy with anything Property Match does, I would invite you to contact my office using our Contact Us page (not via here). Please explain your concerns in detail so we can investigate them properly.
PeeBee:
Ladies first. When I get a response from Country Lass, I'll devote time to yours.
Dr Hilarious Jones:
Why would a doctor be bothered to read these posts so diligently, or offer their professional advice for free - laying themselves open to an action in negligence if their diagnosis should prove to be wrong
YOU DO NOT HAVE PERMISSION TO USE MY CONTENT.
YOU DO NOT HAVE PERMISION TO USE MY COMPANY NAME.
THE DATA ON YOUR SITE IS WRONG, OUT OF DATE INCORRECT AND IN DIRECT BREACH OF PMA.
(do you know what PMA is?)
I have notified Trading Standards and I urge everybody with their stock being listed incorrectly by property match to do the same.
I will not waste any more time with this berk, only to make sure media content that I own is removed from his site and any trading standards breaches are identified.
Very seriously Mr Reality, I have reviewed all of your posts and you are displaying some early classic signs of Alzheimer's disease.
This post isn't a snipe at you mate get yourself down to the Doctor and get help.
OKAY, OKAY... can I ask Mr RR a question or three here?
RR: You state "It is because of the failure of estate agents to understand the need to mark asking prices up within a price range that buyers can both afford and are willing to pay right now. Instead, you set them depending upon what the vendor wants, and that is a fatal error."
SO -
1. What type of house do you own. Just one - the one you live in. I don't want to know about all your student lets; your BTLs - just Hendry Towers.
2. How much, in today's CRAAAAAZY runaway market, is THIS HOUSE 'valued' at?
3. How much will you let Sibley's... BUY IT FOR? Clue - he has £140k to spend. When can he move in - his family are desperate to own their own home, and I reckon your shack will do them right proud...
You want it - YOU START IT! PUT UP OR SHUT UP!!!!!
Country Lass:
1. I don't understand your question, or maybe it doesn't make sense?
If houses recently have sold around there within the last 6 months for £250k, then buyers (by definition) must have been able to have afforded them.
2. Whoever put them on the Internet gave me permission to show them via my web site.
Now, have you any views about my post relevant to this thread please?
Please hurry up with the sedatives , the Bromide is wearing off.
Why do you unprofessionally steal and use properties marketed by estate agents when they are "at fault"? Especially as "they all" over-price. I am in shock that you scrape this data, especially after how you rant about agents like a spoilt child all over your web site.
You are THE biggest hypocrite I have seen on EAT. Fact.
Answer Country Lass' question. We know the answer, you know the answer, we know that you know the answer, but it blows your 'argument' out of the water so its best to dodge it.
I did give you one "hit" earlier and searched for property in a town in the SE - how on Earth I got 10 results (before I gave up) for properties in Derbyshire is beyond me!!
Straight from your site....... "By searching here people can find viable adverts quicker than when using Rightmove"
"Can"? Bit passive, ain't it? You "could" win the lottery tomorrow night. Rightmove knocks the spots of you and there is a damn good reason why you are NOT ALLOWED on there.
You answer my questions, and I'll decide if you are worth the mental effort for me to answer yours.
if I came to value your house, and told you that although houses recently have sold around there within the last 6 months for £250k, but that buyers can only afford to pay £180k for a house like yours, would you be prepared to take that? If so, I think we need to contat the Vatican to get you sainted.
And more importantly, WHO gave you permission to put my photos on your biased, outdated and unimpressive website?
Man up and stop throwing mud to distract from your own failings.
The above article explains:
The present state of the housing market isn't ticking over at all well, let alone blazing ahead; and it's not because of the downturn in the whole economy either. So, why is it - anyone?
It is because of the failure of estate agents to understand the need to mark asking prices up within a price range that buyers can both afford and are willing to pay right now. Instead, you set them depending upon what the vendor wants, and that is a fatal error.
I am trying to identify and correct the causes for general stagnation, in the turnover of houses . The radical conclusion I have come to is that it is, in fact, because of exaggerated asking prices.
Why is no-one in agency trying to come up with measures to correct this problem which is clearly explained in the above main article?
Is there anyone out there who agrees?
Is there anyone out there who feels they too may have positive proposals for remedying the impending disaster we are facing?
If so, I'd be keen to discuss and to collaborate on more ways to effectively reduce the stagnation that is now starting to envelope the housing market.
Preparing himself for the visit from trading standards hopefully.
He was expecting a Telegram from the Queen!
*Sob*
Over 100 comments and no RR to celebrate with..
*sniff sniff*
Apparently he drives all the way from Nottingham (crime capital of the UK?) to St Ives in Cornwall to stick a postcard up in the window of Newsagent.
40p /mile x 640 miles, it is worth it just to get your holiday mileage off set against the pension!
Besides I really do bet you don't offer that as a service!
I will tell you how he expects to make money. Scrape hundreds of thousands of properties to make it look like we have a lot of people who advertise with us.
Then when some poor soul stumbles across the site and decides they want to sell privately, and save some money, they will hand over their £35-£60.
Then weeks down the line, the phone doesn't ring, they have no viewers, and realise that all of the properties on their are actually marketed by agents.
They realised then they have been duped.
Same thing with the article a couple of weeks ago, about the chancer who scrapes properties and then charges viewers a fee to see the properties.
Tell me I am wrong
What I don't understand is the business model. How does scraping stuff from Homes 24 can earn anyone any money?
As the properties are just those being overvalued and advertised by normal rogue agents how is the site changing the way properties are sold.
We might be swaming bees but only because you are a Amorphophallus titanum.
Grow up RR. You have blasted us for not answering your questions, and dodging the issues. And yet when it comes to the small matter of you breaking the law, suddenly its all fun and games, and that 'ooh we might hit 100!'
NO ONE CARES
We are far more concerned that your childish, spiteful website is slamming agents in general, WHILST you are advertising properties you have no right to. Wasn't there a link on her about that a while ago? I'm sure I remember 'copyright' being mentioned too.
If you're really lucky you may get sued for breach of copyright too!
It's because you don't answer questions that people have specifically asked you.
...and the fact you do not practice what you preach - your listings are in line with agency brackets or higher.
....and you dodge facts and statements that expose you for what you really are
.....and its come to light that you're a 'scraper'
AND you don't buy every property that you list on your site, that does not sell.
You're like a swarm of bees circling, every time I post :'-(
Keep going, we're nearly up to 100 :-0
Thread of the year!
RR: Just so you know what wardy is referring to, there is this little piece of legislation called the Property Misdescriptions Act 1991. Came into force 1992. It kinda aims to stop Estate Agents from being all that Mary Portas hates about them, including dodgy descriptions and the like. There are 33 Specified Matters that the Act homes in on. You MIGHT be interested to cast a glance over THIS one:
16. Price (other than the price at which accommodation or facilities are available and are to be provided by means of the creation or disposal of an interest in land in the circumstances specified in section 23 (1)(a) and (b) of the Consumer Protection Act 1987(a) or Article 16(1)(a) and (b) of the Consumer Protection (NI) Order 1987(b) (which relate to the creation or disposal of certain interests in new dwellings)) and previous price.
Erm... know a good lawyer? One that will charge you way below market value? OR, do you accept that supply and demand come into play here and you may well NEED one, so have to pay the going rate? ;0)
Still, at least you haven't advertised Buck House like the last chancer. Now he is gonna need an UBERlawyer to clean up his brown sticky mess...
Wardy & Country Lass: All my properties too, with all the wrong information.
RR: Now you have been rumbled. Is this your business model thats go to change the way of selling houses.
Absolute Joke.
Wardy - thats a blooming good point! Why are mine on there too? ESPECIALLY THE ONES THAT HAVE SOLD!!!!!!!! and reduced their price btw Mr-Price-Houses-Properly.
RR - I was wrong in my earlier post, you are not a duck. That is an insult to ducks. You are a parasite.
RR, you utter Clown. Why is your website showing MY stock? Why is is showing for the wrong price (£20,000) above what they are on the market for.
Seriously guys. This is another scraper website.
RR, you will be hearing from a solicitor.
Sorry folks - missed my name off the last post. If you'd known who it was then you wouldn't have needed to bother starting to read it... ;0)
ANYWAY - wardy: "Let’s have a bet. Let’s take the same instruction over the same time scale and see who achieves the highest price from the best buyer. You may find its you that’s the 'loser agent'. If you win I will drop all my vals by 10%. If you lose you can p**s off to retirement like you was suppose to" Mate - tell me where it is, I'LL BUY IT FROM YOU! Sounds like a fantastic investment - FOR THE SAKE OF THE INDUSTRY AND THE HOUSING MARKET...! ;0D
There you go Henry, even ex RICS surveyors are misled by your article.
Mr Hendry Land registry figures do not represent the average price of property; they represent the average price of properties completed. Lots of properties are not yet registered at Land registry; Lots of properties have never been sold. Land registry data is not complete.
Portal asking prices only represent properties on the market.
What Henry was saying is that only 40% of the properties put on the market will eventually complete, non-committed vendors change of circumstance etc. account for the other 60%.
If you have gone through an RICS career without understand the basics of property valuation to such an extent that you cannot see anomaly in this article and are happy to re-quote it then you are truly one of the most ill-informed people I have ever come across.
Please re-read AF Millington's " Introduction to Property valuation". Time reading that book rather than posting on here would be much better use of your time.
RR: Who are you to come on here and suggest to agents they should offer better advice, I think you will find the majority of the agents that post on here will off great advice and manage vendors expectations accordingly.
Yes, there are over-valuers out there, who would rather stack there property list as high as possible, with the 'throw enough mud against the wall and see if sticks approach', they probably won't last very long.
I agree the market is not perfect, But I, along with lots of others out their, offer great advice, great customer service and manage our clients expectations.
I have no suggestions on how to change the market, personally though my company does very well so I am happy.
One Thing I can tell you though is, you will not revolutionise the market, as from reading your posts you haven't got a clue.
RR: "...I should say that your idea that estate agents are sort of Ubersales people does rather beggar belief. If you were actually to ask the majority of house buyers, you would understand what I am saying here. That's one of the probs… Agents need to come down a peg or two and become, well, human again, fallible even?" AGAIN you fail to read! I said (please note the capitalised section that gives it away...) "Estate Agent therefore needs to be mentor, hand-holder, confidante, adviser; therapist - AND LASTLY, SALESPERSON!" Allow me to bore you all with a true story. Many, many years ago, I had an Appraisal with my then employer. The first question on his list was "What makes you a good salesperson, PeeBee"; to which I imediately responded that I did not actually consider myself to be "a good salesperson." Robin looked at me with wide eyes, as this was the last thing he expected me to say - and wondered why he had employed me to sell his homes. I simply said "People buy from people, and they will buy from people they like before they buy from people they don't. AND, because I am one of the nicest people you will ever have the fortune to meet, it is most likely that they will buy from me, Robin." Twenty two years down the line, when I see him he still quotes me!
Whilst I felt that the Mary Portas show was abysmal and she had her head full of magic with her visions of Estate Agency, I DO agree that the focus is on good customer relations, and that this is the diferentiator between a good and a bad Agent.
I have seen poor Agents; I have seen good Agents. I am well aware that it makes a difference from parish to parish how people want to be treated (from person to person as well, further blurring the 'rules') - that the typical London market is vastly different to my patch of dirt way 'Oop North' - but believe me, the best I have seen know their customers (both sellers AND buyers); know their ins and outs; and manage to find time to deal with them in the way that they WANT to be dealt with. AS HUMANS, not statistics.
HOW you expect to put THAT right, with an ONLINE service is pure mystery to me...
HOW you expect to correct all that YOU see to be wrong with the housing market by imposing a cartel on pricing and forcing the Agent to buy property they fail to sell in ten minutes BEGGARS BELIEF!!
How dare you. Loser agents? I do my job very well. All my clients are looked after and EVERYONE I sell for achieves the highest price possible. Any monkey can sell for below market value. (that’s where you come in btw)
I will never stop selling for the highest price I can get. Like it or lump it RR, either adapt your own model or continue to fail. I couldn’t care less about your ideas and suggestions and nor will any of your competitors and I’m sure any agent 'worth their salt' as you put it does either.
Let’s have a bet. Let’s take the same instruction over the same time scale and see who achieves the highest price from the best buyer. You may find its you that’s the 'loser agent'. If you win I will drop all my vals by 10%. If you lose you can p**s off to retirement like you was suppose to.
RR, you have said people on here haven't answered your questions, but you haven't answered mine.
As a vendor (not connected with the property industry) would you be willing to drop £60/70k to help out someone you have never met. To sell of your biggest assest cheaply because that's what someone with a property website was telling you to do?
You accuse Agents of artificially keeping prices too high, and yet you are deliberately trying to drive them down. Every word you type reinforces my opinion that you do not know what you are talking about.
Smell the 'coffee' yourself. If zoololgists tell you some thing walks, looks and sounds like a duck, it's a duck.
you are a duck.
Wardy:
The research for the above article suggests that asking prices are way out of line, compared to sold (completed) prices. That's what this is about.
They are averaging at £60,000 more than actual sold prices. They simply mislead - everyone.
Pricing houses way out of line with their actual selling range, just causes the market to stall. You loose, your clients loose, the buyers loose too. Why are you continuing to try and defend such loser- agents?
Let's wake up and smell the 'coffee'.
Buyers decide prices. Not you and definitely not your clients.
You, and all estate agents need to improve their advice when suggesting a 'marketing price' by getting this to within 10% of actual sales-completed prices, if you are really worth your salt.
Failure to do this just causes lost opportunities. Blaming the vendor for insisting on too high a price is a cop-out. Surely you sales people can do a better job than that?.
Ok, let’s forget your site.
Your post is wrong, not up for debate, no merit what so ever. ESTATE AGENTS DO NOT CONTROLL HOUSE PRICES NOR WANT TO. House prices are controlled by the buying public. It’s really is that simple. Factors mainly centered on buyer confidence and availability of credit. RR, the market decides house prices not us. This is where I question your experience because I just don’t understand how you can think otherwise.
When I value, I look at a marketing price. That being the most amount of money I can put a house on the market and still get people through the door. Anything other that that is a disservice to your clients and a breach of the agency act.
I can put it another way. Agents technically can not 'value' property. As you know that has to be done by a surveyor. We merely advise on a marketing price.
"Time to put the record straight on a few things"
You still haven't told us how many of the properties you have failed to sell have been bought up by the Property Match Corporation.
We are not interested in long posts that say nothing at all, that last post can not be condensed into 5 sentances that mean anything at all, in effect your have spent an hour typing Guff.
As the "Head of Advertising" you ought to know that if you have created a reputation for talking squit it is best not to keep reinforcing the fact.
RR, if I came to value your house, and told you that although houses recently have sold around there within the last 6 months for £250k, but that buyers can only afford to pay £180k for a house like yours, would you be prepared to take that? If so, I think we need to contat the Vatican to get you sainted.
Most decent Agents tell their vendors a MARKETING APPRAISAL. They give them a guideline based on what the recent area has been like, the interest levels, other property prices and their time on the market, and the sold prices. They will also give an estimate of what they THINK the offers will be on the property. They will then keep in touch with the vendor, updating them on interest and feedback, and then let them know if the price needs to be adjusted, and to negotiate with them to accept the best offer the Agent thinks they are likely to get.
If a property is over-priced, then it won't sell it's as simple as that. A property is worth what a buyer (and RICS mortgage survey) thinks it is.
And I do think that there are things that need to be changed with Estate Agency, and I freely admit that. I also think that Northern Rock's 90% mortgage will help see more of a turnover of properly financed buyers.
Time to put the record straight on a few things ( I can't always be on hand to answer comments immediately).
Firstly, even though many of you know of my involvement in an online-only web site for marketing houses and for use by anyone, this is not the reason I am interested in posting on these pages. Therefore, I am not planning to engage in any more debate about that here, so I'd ask you, once again, not to press me on that, if at all possible. This doesn't mean I'm not happy to discuss that elsewhere but the subject of this blog has little to do with that.
To answer the most important points involved in our recent exchanges: -
Firstly PeeBee:
Your synopsis of what happens in the back office of an estate agent's was descriptive and succinct.
By pointing out the fact that it's the shortcomings of the operations involved, that I'm attempting to address with my posts, you seem to have immediately accepted that such shortcomings do actually exist and that you are not trying to conceal their existence at all. That's fine.
That's exactly what I've been trying to post about here, not PM, which seems to have overtaken everything in the curiosity stakes |:-)
Whilst writing however, I should say that your idea that estate agents are sort of Ubersales people does rather beggar belief. If you were actually to ask the majority of house buyers, you would understand what I am saying here. That's one of the probs… Agents need to come down a peg or two and become, well, human again, fallible even?
County Lass:
You seem to be coming from the viewpoint that says everything is fine with present-day estate agency's marketing methods. I have to take issue with anyone who tries to argue that. Just referring them to the present state of the housing market economy, should explain that. It so isn't ticking over, let alone blazing ahead; and it's not because of the downturn in the whole economy either.
It is instead, because of the failure of estate agents to understand the need to mark asking prices up within a price range that buyers can both afford and are willing to pay right now. Instead, you set them depending upon what the vendor wants, and you cannot dress-up any argument that you don't.
The whole thrust of my online argument is directed towards identifying and correcting the causes for general stagnation, in the turnover of houses, and the unusual conclusion I have come to is that it is, in fact, because of exaggerated asking prices.
As you will know turnover is the life blood of estate agency, yet no-one within the profession appears to be looking at this, nor is there anyone within agency trying to find ways to improve present-day methods. I've asked around, and no-one has stepped up to the plate on this. I argue that the result of such non-action will be mass unemployment for estate agents, exactly as occurred in the last downturn.
This would not be good for the market, for house owners, or for estate agency. Why is no-one else trying to come up with measures to correct this?
So I ask, is there anyone out there who agrees? Is there anyone out there who feels they too may have positive proposals for remedying the impending disaster we are facing? If so, I'd be keen to discuss and to collaborate with them on ways to effectively reduce the stagnation that is now starting to envelope the dear old English housing market. I daren't say UK in case I set some of you off again :o)
Unfortunately my glass always seems to be empty these days. Hic!
Don't worry too much about Jonnie, he has new speedos and is lying by the pool. he send his regards!
Thanks PeeBee! Almost decided to give up after the whole BarryChuckles/ FTBers of the uk debacle! Took me about four attempts before I wrote a post that wouldn't have been deleted for being abusive and vulgar.
The air in the office turned blue though.
Country Lass: Yes - and of course AoS's glass is always COMPLETELY FULL! ;0)
I reckon you're gonna be fun to have round here - I feel it in my old bones!
Pity you missed the Legend That Is Jonny. You would have cracked a rib or two at his posts...
JONNY - YOU READING THIS? COME BACK!!!
Obviously a slip of the tongue @Aceofspades, I'm sure you just meant to point out you were going to have a glass of coke!
I did mean to acknowledged that in my last post - you're quite right - two reasons for him doing it have been exposed.
Right, I'm off for a beverage, a coca cola enterprises ltd offering will suffice.
@Aceofspades I was referring more to that fact that he was 'unintentionally' mentioning the whole business name, rather than the shortened version most people would use. Purely accidentally obviously.......
As I said, I think he may have Realised the Reality that no-one is paying attention to his opinions!
Country Lass - he uses '(UK)' to create the illusion that this is just one division of a global set up - it's obviously a success everywhere else.
He still has not given a satisfactory response to the fact that most of the properties on his site are within agency pricing brackets, or in several cases, much higher. Surely you should remove ALL of these listings if you genuinely believe that prices are too high? Better still, buy the houses that have not yet sold - Clearly a man of your word then.
Can you still not see that nobody can take you seriously on here?
Silence from Realising Reality......
Interesting.
RR: Sorry - missed something. You'll like this... REALLY...
"The only thing one can say, which is positive, is this demonstrates the pressing need for 'agency' to rid itself of those whom are bringing its reputation into continued disrepute. It demonstrates unequivocally, that there IS more work to be done on this."
I AM ABSOLUTELY, UNEQUIVOCALLY, ONE HUNDRED PERCENT IN AGREEMENT WITH YOU!
We just disagree one hundred percent over WHO those individuals and companies are. And by the way - for the record, your website wouldn't be on the list. It does far to little harm to affect the market.
It is more how much harm YOU are doing to your website that your colleagues need to look carefully at...
RR: "The problem is, you seem to believe it (...the property market...) is working perfectly.
My point is, that I (and very many others) don't think it IS working perfectly! In fact it is currently working abysmally badly &-( "
Sir - I have NEVER said that it is working perfectly. I NEVER WILL! Any market is not a machine; its drivers are not fuel and mechanical knowhow. They are all based upon factors particular specifically to the product and the end-user. Like how "The Salesperson's Bible" does not and will not work for the housing market. Every "Salesperson's Bible" - all sixty-eight thousand of them and rising daily... is written for the benefit of a Professional Salesperson selling his goods to a Professional Buyer. The Buyer knows WHAT he/she wants: WHEN and WHERE they want it: and HOW MUCH they will pay. Salesperson simply has to tick all those boxes, and he is in with a shot. UNFORTUNATELY, a great proportion of homebuyers are complete and utter AMATEURS! They either have never bought before, or usually last went through the process several years previously. Estate Agent therefore needs to be mentor, hand-holder, confidante, adviser; therapist - and lastly, Salesperson!
Now if YOU tick all those boxes; if YOU can write a book that covers EVERY EVENTUALITY of the sales process that takes place i the housing market, then - AND ONLY THEN - will I listen to what you have to say. I started writing the book nearly 33 years ago. I have several thousand case studies; each would take a novelette to cover if it were to be of any use. I intend to continue collecting data for a goodly long time to come - but don't expect a book.
a) No-one would read it. b) It would be out-of-date before it was printed.
And unlike Ms K Price, who fits well into category b) above, I do not intend to release my story in instalments...
Of all the properties you have had on your books, as valued by you or the other execs, how many have you purchased because they remain unsold 3 months after you listed them?
One can only assume the answer to be None, enough said!
So then RR, please enlighten me.
What are the advantages of your online service over say our traditional approach that includes mass online advertising?
I’m not quite sure where in any of my posts I have been angry. In fact most of them have given me a good laugh.
I would suggest to you that my pseudonym is actually my name. I’ve been called wardy since I was at school. I assume your real name isn’t Realisling Reality?
Who would you like to complain too by the way? This site or one of the many regulatory bodies I’m a member of?
'I take your point that neither you nor Wardy appear to have actually stated the name Property Match in this particular blog, very clever of you. However, you were clearly referring to it, whereas I was not intentionally doing so, in any of my posts beforehand. '
If that is the case, why did you take the time to put (UK) after each mention?
I took a look at your webiste earlier today, whilst waiting for a viewer to show, and the one thing that struck me overall? The pettiness. You might as well have called it ihateestateagents.com
You have a different view on the market and how you believe it should be run. For some people, your way may (MAY) work. For everyone else though, it would cause a massive rise in the sale of anti-depressants, hair dye and ulcer medication.
Oh - feel free to complain about me to the Site Admin as well, Sir. Nat Daniels and Rosalind Renshaw both know who I am; where I am - and will have NO HESITATION in issuing me with a ban if it is felt my conduct is inappropriate.
RR: Sir - you are soooo wrong with your last post!
Speaking as an outsider, in my opinion Wardy simply voices (rightly...) his concerns at an unfit for stated purpose wren of an organisation repeatedly attempting to fluff their feathers up on a worldwide platform and pretend they are some kind of knowledgable big bird in the property world.
You are not, Sir a big bird - and never will be, as long as vendors have common sense.
As a non-Agent, what do you make of MY continued questioning of your agendae? Surely you have to admit that I have no axe to grind; that I am not 'worried' that you will put me out of business? In fact, I should be WELCOMING your arrival, should I not? Like a crowd, expectantly awaiting the sound of the approaching Red Arrows, no less...
I await your response.
Wardy:
Now then, this deserves a very different response to the one you have tried to extract.
Why are you soooo obsessed with Property Match???
I have NO wish to answer your question, which is completely off-topic anyway. Don't you know, there is freedom in this country.
Do you understand? That matter is now closed :'-(
Once again you have displayed the behaviour of a spoilt child, annoyed with someone else whom you have chosen to dislike.
Your behaviour, which is highly prejudicial, is demonstrably the last type of behaviour anyone wishing to sell the most expensive investment they've ever owned, would wish for, from their chosen agent. You do NO service at all, to the goodwill of estate agents.
In my opinion you let all estate agents down by exhibiting the ability to take such an angry and unattractive stance, even on an estate agents' blog!
You seem to have a total hatred for those wishing to effect change for the better, within the estates professions. You seem to be in denial about the need for any improvement in the way houses are currently marketed.
You are behaving like a frightened child, being taken to hospital for stitches to repair a badly gashed knee, being totally self-centred and inconsiderate of others' suggestions - not even being prepared to discuss their merits >:-||
The only thing one can say, which is positive, is this demonstrates the pressing need for 'agency' to rid itself of those whom are bringing its reputation into continued disrepute. It demonstrates unequivocally, that there IS more work to be done on this.
Im sure you won't be surprised that I propose to complain about your aggressive behaviour on this blog, as well as your breach of etiquette on the use of pseudonyms. You're a big let-down.
PeeBee:
Well I like your explanation about the sales and marketing process anyway.
The problem is, you seem to believe it is working perfectly.
My point is, that I (and very many others) don't think it IS working perfectly! In fact it is currently working abysmally badly &-(
I take your point that neither you nor Wardy appear to have actually stated the name Property Match in this particular blog, very clever of you. However, you were clearly referring to it, whereas I was not intentionally doing so, in any of my posts beforehand.
Given your clear attempts at creating bad publicity for Property Match, I was merely putting the alternative 'good' reasons for having an online service where owners who wished to, could safely advertise houses both to let and for sale, thus saving the need to pay high rates of commission to an agent. If this vexes you I can't help that, sorry.
RR: Yes - I am aware of what you describe as 'Meerkat value'. One word answer - cr@p.
Allow me to explain the marketing and sales process - it seems to have passed you WAAAAAY overhead (obviously attached to one of the Red Arrows you are so fond of)...
The "value" of anything - Diamonds; Houses; Red Arrows - whatever - is what a someone is prepared to pay ("The Purchase Price"). For the purposes of this exercise, if you don't mind, I will use a house (known hereon as "The Property") as the article for sale. This "Purchase Price" is determined by firstly setting an "Asking Price", which is then advertised by the Agent in order to seek interested parties ("Prospective Purchasers") who will then go and have a look at the property ("Viewers"). If a "Viewer" likes "The Property" they will discuss their willingness to pay an amount of money ("Make an Offer") for "The Property". This figure is usually below the "Asking Price", and often too low ("Unacceptable") for the owner of "The Property" ("The Vendor") to sell at ("Accept"). So then, "The Vendor's" professional sales company ("The Estate Agent") have discussions ("Conduct Negotiations") with "The Prospective Purchaser" in order to increase "The Offer" to one which "The Vendor" would be happy to sell at ("Accept").
I hope that clarifies the process somewhat. I must confess to not be quite as au fait with the process that would involve the sale of an aerobatic team. If you like, I will happily enter into discussions with the Royal Air Force on your behalf - BUT I DON'T DO FIXED, UP-FRONT FEES, like YOU DO! You would pay me (A LOT) purely on results...
Lastly, in your last post (can anyone else hear a bugle playing...?) to wardy, you thanked him for publicising your famously poor website. The gentleman has not once in his posts on this storyline used the website name. In your last post alone you managed to chuck it in FOUR TIMES! This Sir, is spamming - nothing else and nothing else. Unfortunately, like the filippinos who spend their whole lives telling us all how to get dodgy medicines, you seem to know nothing about either the product you peddle, or your target audience.
I repeat my last words from the last post. FOR ONCE, read them; digest them; and ACT UPON THEM, before you are "retired" once again, this time forcibly by those you claim to represent:
"I would respectfully suggest, Sir, that instead of "spreading the word", you are instead spreading a deep and sticky layer of nitrogenous waste upon your venture, and that you should immediately disassociate yourself completely from it (and the property market) to allow it the MINUTE CHANCE of succeeding that it could otherwise have without your meddling and disservice."
Of all the properties you have had on your books, as valued by you or the other execs, how many have you purchased because they remain unsold 3 months after you listed them?
This is a closed question requiring a numerical reply, you can type the word "None" if you like.
P.S. Go and read the OFT report on Estate Agents, you will find that you are one of the few people who are painting Agents as overvaluing un-professionals.
The public do not hold your opinion.
Remember a numerical answer is all that is required, no words, no opinions, no excuses just a number or None.
Prove all of us wrong by honestly confirming that you have put your money where your solutions is.
Don't believe me then. Its a free World. I'm glad you find it amusing, enjoy.
Yes RR I understand.
My point is this. Your comments on your blog and on this forum are invalid, partly because you are wrong but mostly because you haven’t a single clue what you are barking on about. I am using your ridicules site as an example of your lack of knowledge, skill and experience.
'I'm not its sole owner but as one if its executives'
That’s even funnier, if it was you on your own that’s almost excusable but a team of you!!!!
One of my ribs has just cracked.
Shucks Wardy:
You talk as if you are our parents or something, telling those of us at Property Match (UK) how silly we are to be doing something which you happen to think is a waste of time - and trying to belittle our efforts.
From the response you just got you also seem to maraud around, being all the lesser agent's parents too.
As I said before, I thank you for further publicising the Property Match (UK) web site, but incase the reason for the recent pseudonym name change escapes you, it was so that I could comment here WITHOUT continually publicising Property Match (UK), even though I have a long and committed relationship with it as one of its team leaders.
I'm not its sole owner but as one if its executives, I am confident that it will pave the way for an industry standard of direct online house advertising, to work alongside present-day estate agency.
But that's not what I want to blog about any more!!! Have you understood, or is Property Match (UK) souk a thorn in your side that you absolutely MUST keep trying to slate it???
There are far more pressing matters, like the subject of the article we are supposed to be blogging on about here.
Now have you understood???
@wardy. Wow, I didn't think an actual person came up with that genius plan. I figured anything so patently stupid and unworkable must have been the expensive product of some government think-tank!
Country lass,
A lot of us here have found out the hard way that RR, is not worth the effort. He is a retired surveyor who has little to no experience in ANY aspects of estate agency, marketing or websites. In fact his little stop at home business has not sold a single property. He will never answer a straight question. At first his ideas where quite amusing. (Remember the agents should by unsold stock?) But now it is quite worrying that someone with such a skewed outlook on property selling should even be allowed to take part in this forum, let alone the industry.
RR, It might not be worth plugging that site of yours on here. God forbid Google find it and future vendors see your comments. Believe me EAT has better SEO than you do.
You capsulate every thing that is wrong with our industry. People that think anyone can have a go on a shoe string, from the sofa. For you to think you have the first idea about how to sell property successfully whilst keeping within the Estate Agency Act is quite frankly a joke. You have a poor website. That is all. Its not new, its not revolutionary, its not cleaver and it doesn’t sell property.
You are seriously deluded if you think that your stupid ideas are a threat to agents. Let me give you an example.
Your site is displaying 22410 properties scraped from OODLE (or whatever that is) in my county.
Sold= NONE
Our stock is currently at about 55 and we’ve sold 4 this week.
Do you get it now?
Peebee:
It's 'Meerkat Value' that's causing the problem?
Do you know what that is?
RR: "I refer you to the answer I gave a short while ago." Answer? Where? To what? I haven't asked any questions...
Why am I, an individual, non-practicing ex-Estate Agent, causing you so much grief? You can't answer MY questions - yet you aim to challenge The Great And The Good of the industry and claim to be the herald of The New Beginning. Good luck, mate - that's all I'll say. I can sell and buy some Agents off the planet - but I wouldn't mess with the best...
SO... to your last post. Firstly: "I don't necessarily have the right answers to deal the problem of the stagnating housing market and I'm not coming on here to tell people what to do." That's rich - coming from someone who's "contributions" in past, both on here and in your fairy-tale blog have been to make all Agents personally obligated to buy a property at a stated price if unsold within three months; or to compare the housing market with the Red Arrows ("If just one of the planes is out of position with respect to all the others, chaos could ensue. It’s exactly the same with marketing houses.").
Secondly: You ask "What do you think 'estate agents' have done wrong, to cause such a large number of people to defer wanting to move house currently?" You poor, poor man. What do you possible believe you are going to achieve by asking for answers to this - other than more of what you have previously teed yourself up for? I counter your question:
What do YOU possibly think that Estate Agents COULD DO or WOULD DO, to cause a seller or buyer to defer moving house?
I await your answer with GREAT anticipation...
@RR
First of all I would like to question the 'estate agents' part of your question. Although the industry as a whole is bearing a share of the criticism, I do not believe that ALL Agents are responsible or guilty of causing the problems. I will only tell you of things I have come across myself, and the blame does not lie soley with the Agent.
I do not think it is Estate Agents themselves that are stopping people from moving, more the market itself (which is not helped by Agents, I grant you)
Part of the banking crisis was us following in America's (frankly daft) shoes and offering NINJA mortgages. No Income, No Job or Assets. Basically giving someone £100k who has no way of paying it back. Not helped by Agents asking how they intended to repay the mortgage, but the blame for that mainly falls on THE BANKS.
I also know of one independant who, when offering mortgage advice, sent all their buyers to an IFA with the instructions, tell him you are self employed and he will tell you what salary you need to put down to buy. Partly THE AGENT, partly THE IFA and THE BANK.
High house prices. If I came out and told you that your house was worth £230k and that I was confident of getting an offer close to that by the timescales you set, would you listen to me? Or the person who came round and told you it was worth £250k? Most vendors go on with the Agent who says they can get them the most, even if they are lying through their teeth. Soemtimes they will come to their favourite Agent and ask to go with them at another Agents price. At the end of the day we provide a marketing APPRAISAL. We do not give a valuation, that it what RICS do. We give a price that we believe will attract interest and get an acceptable offer.
Yes, as we have discussed (at length) the fact that Agents have a bad reputation, which will involve some people not trusting us, or our experience.
So, in conclusion, SOME Agents have smoothed the way for mistakes to be made. SOME Agents have over-exaggerated the prices and the market. SOME Agents have been party to what can only be described of as fraud, in order to hit a target and gain their commission. and hopefully most of those Agents are struggling in the current market.
PeeBee: I refer you to the answer I gave a short while ago.
Country Lass: We agree, many agents over-value houses to win instructions.
I don't necessarily have the right answers to deal the problem of the stagnating housing market and I'm not coming on here to tell people what to do.
To answer your point however, I do not agree that direct online house sales won't happen. Yes, selling houses is a 'people' thing but the real people involved are in fact the buyers who meet the sellers they then decide to by from. That is, indeed, a 'people' thing. Adding 'Colubrines' (an agent simply making money out of it), into what is already a heady mix doesn't help, in many cases.
Anyway, the reason I am posting is, I have an important question:
What do you think 'estate agents' have done wrong, to cause such a large number of people to defer wanting to move house currently?
'Oh, and by the way; my earlier conclusion stated that too many estate agents deliberately overvalue properties they want to take on. When are you guys going to DO something to correct that? It's messing up the whole market and putting some people out of business. It's also causing a lot of grief to a lot of your clients - have you thought about that? I suspect not.'
RR, I fully agree that too many Agents over-value, but if you look through most of the posts on this site, so does pretty much everyone else on here. If you can think of a way to stop it, please feel free to share! Asking when we will do something to correct it sounds to me like us asking you when you will do something to stop racism (as an example). Most people agree that it is out of order and should be stopped, but unless you want to brainwash every single person on the planet, it won't happen.
I expect most of the Agents on here DO try and stop other Agents from over-valuing, but there is only so much we can do.
And please, 'worried by the dawning of new ways to sell and let property direct online'? It won't happen. People buy from PEOPLE! The personal skills most Agents possess are what makes us good at our job. The ability to hold someones hand as we guide them through a difficult and stressful time, to give them a sounding board for worries, and a person to be happy and excited with as they take the next step towards the rest of their lives.
With you, they may as well deal with the Terminator.
R.R.: One thing causes me great surprise also - that an educated chap such as yourself cannot command proper use of the English language when attempting to put oneself on a pedestal.
I do not - and will not - speak for practicing Estate Agents now. I speak for me. You have from day one simply pushed your own head above the parapet; then cry infantlike because those who know infinitely more than you purport to, shoot at you.
You say your purpose is to be controversial. Well, you therefore play a dangerous game - but if you don't like what YOU have started, then you shouldn't keep loading the bullets for others and then shouting "HERE I COME", should you?
If you believe for ONE SECOND that Estate Agents "fear" you; your site; or your vision, then your delusions have surpassed my (and I would suggest everyone else's) wildest estimations. But I am certain that Agents will speak for themselves on that point.
As a potential 'end-user', you will be delighted to read that NO WAY, NO HOW, EVER, wold I consider displaying one of my properties on your sad, sorry website. I would rather pay an Agent TEN PERCENT to know that someone with an ounce of commitment; capability - and sanity - was looking after my biggest and most personal asset.
I would respectfully suggest, Sir, that instead of "spreading the word", you are instead spreading a deep and sticky layer of nitrogenous waste upon your venture, and that you should immediately disassociate yourself completely from it (and the property market) to allow it the MINUTE CHANCE of succeeding that it could otherwise have without your meddling and disservice.
Dear estate agents,
I'm surprised, mostly by one thing. That my arrival here, on this blog, should have causes such vehement opposition from some of you.
This strongly suggests you, who defend the work of estate agents, almost to the hilt, are , well 'worried' by the dawning of new ways to sell and let property direct online - like these of Property Match (UK), for example.
To that extent it's mission accomplished; in my estimation. We must be a viable alternative (to what has become a much unloved corner of society lately) - self inflicted owing to the way agents have behaved when dealing with individual clients' property affairs.
If you don't understand and can't agree with this, don't worry, I wouldn't expect your to ;-)
Seems to me that I am not the one who has crept away.
Come on boys leave him alone, have respect for what he used to be and simply nod in agreement when he posts.
We will all be old some day!
RR - Your website is terrible - it would have been OK in the mid 90s, but layouts, design and usability have really moved on since then....really moved on.
Now, that takes us to the content. One way or another, you have lots of property on there that IS OVER-PRICED. Regardless of how it got there, you should practice what you preach (you blamed agents last time I brought this up, but I don't think any good ones would ever consider using you).
...and PeeBees 50/50 comment has really gone way over your head - you still don't get it, do you? I'm starting to question your ability to understand such simple concepts.
Especialy that your record keeps skipping to the same part about over-pricing, yet your site is a shocking culprit.
Ask yourself this question, what do YOU really offer to the property industry? I'd use that answer towards your next career move.
From another EAT story today "An £11m mansion belonging to Gaddafi’s family, which was on the market with Knight Frank, had already been withdrawn from sale last week. It is not known who issued the instruction to take it off the market."
Have you factored THIS into your figures, HCLP? ;0)
In your last post you have made it very clear where you are NOT going to get any information from. Would be not be better to inform each and every housing expert that comments here (...I say that because they ARE, in their own small patches of land...) where the information DOES come from...?
One more thing. Not a flaw as such in your methodology, but something that I would argue will ALWAYS skew the figures downwards. You take the sum total of instructions in hand as at 31/12/09, then you add EVERY instruction listed from 1/1/10 to, I presume, 31/12/10 (this is what you infer as to be the case). What chance have December instructions have of selling? Half of Novermber, for that matter?
Feel free to correct me, but I suggest you are effectively adding together fourteen or fifteen months- worth of properties available, deducting ten-and-a-half months of sales, and saying that the market is stuffed. Even I would come to THAT conclusion, if I wasn't looking at a wider picture than the one you paint, Sir.
RR,
You have not sold a single one have you? Just admit it.
"This sum does NOT include any data from the Land Registry.
This sum does NOT take any price data from Rightmove"
Strange I am sure I read
"The gap between asking prices and actual prices is huge: the average asking price on Rightmove is now £230,030. According to the Land Registry, the average selling price is currently £68,846 lower at £163,184."
You can "but thats not what I meant" all you like Henry, you just found out why the RICS advise against claiming to be an "expert"
Too many journalists and experts are litterally prattling on and quoting each other with no substance behind what is being said.
Quoting land registry figures is pointless, Land registry only accounts for those properties which have been placed on the market and been sold. That is an un-known percentage of the housing stock. It does not and can not include properties which have not been on the market.
Portal, asking prices are the closest to reflecting supply and demand as those are the properties which have been valued most recently in the individual regions. I simply do not accept that agents are consistently over valuing property other than a normal 10 -15% above actual valuation. this is nothing more than "Haggle margin"
Despite my challenge of your article Henry I think it is good that you do what you The bit I don't like is how the various flawed reports are being pieced together to create sensationalistic journalism that does not represent more than a few square miles of property. Outside the pseudo celebrity world of central London, there is correlation between average earnings and average property prices. Property sales are returning to the normal patterns of behaviour, Some prices are rising, some are falling but it is certainly not the case that 60% of property is going to remain un-sold.
There might be a few folk in central London with massive mortgages who were reliant on an ever increasing market to buy and sell their way to wealth, it is going to be tough on them but Mr,Mrs & Ms Steady Public do not need to be too concerned about the property market.
Oooooh look I managed to get my 15 minutes to extend into a second week. Will OK want to cover my wedding?
Good evening all,
As requested I am going to look back at previous years and try and explain what is going on with this months addition to my blog which I hope will be published on EAT on Wednesday.
Just to round up on the various points left outstanding in this thread can we go back to what I am trying to point out;-
I am taking the total number of homes that sell in a year and dividing this by the total number of homes that (a) were added to the market over the year when added to (b) the total number of homes that were already on the market at the start of the year.
This sum does NOT include any data from the Land Registry.
This sum does NOT take any price data from Rightmove.
This sum does NOT rely on any data from Rightmove although their published data helps ensure that my numbers are broadly correct.
This DOES take sales volumes for the whole of the UK from HMRC and I try to de-duplicate multiple agencies from the figures but accept that I am not 100% able to do this.
So, as the article says, on the 1st January last year there were just over 700,000 'unique' homes for sale. During the year another 1.3m were added and of this combined total of over 2m properties just 880,000 (a little more than 40%) actually sold.
I hope this helps. Thanks for your interest and for debate. More on the Henry Pryor Blog on EAT later this week, I hope.
It is hard to work out if Henry is the Emperor or the Weaver! Is he the one being duped or is he doing the duping!
Land registry Index is a report based on completed sales region by region. The average price is only an average of properties that have sold.
RightMove stats are based on properties which have not yet sold, this means they are a different set of properties to those reported by Land registry.
Only if portals scrape data back from agents once a sale had been exchanged can anyone comment of the relationship between asking prices and completion prices.
Does regulation 53 F not apply any more?
Realising Reality: We are more confused than interested in the reasoning for your namechange. I doubt if you would "Realise Reality", if it were printed in three-foot high lettering on the front of the bus that you seem so fixated upon, bears down upon you!
For what it is worth, I doubt if there IS a 50:50 chance of that - just as I certainly DON'T give your website those generous odds to become "...a new industry standard of direct online house advertising..." the way your poisoned mind envisages it!
I keep telling you that I am not an Estate Agent, AS I AM NOT! In the same way that you are NO LONGER A MEMBER OF RICS - you keep telling them what to do. I see Estate Agency now from a helicopter view - an outsider looking in...; and it is a very interesting viewpoint to have.
I was an Estate Agent, for some fourteen years. During my Agency career I and my teams were credited with several thousand property sales. Prior to, and more recently, following my foray into estate Agency, I have been credited with well over one thousand personally. I do not say that to impress or otherwise - I say that to simply show that I know a bit about putting buyers and sellers together.
You now LEAD the PropertyMatch team. It says so on their website. So don't try to disassociate your involvement by lying. Wardy has asked you questions that ANY vendor would be perfectly at liberty to ask you - and you have evaded the question on more than one occasion.
Time for you to show your cards, methinks - demonstrate to those reading YOU are the property market saviour that you obviously believe yourself to be.
ANSWER THE QUESTIONS! Come on - salesmen love to sell themselves! Show us yours and we will all Realise the Reality of the situation - that WE are all WRONG and that YOU are the WAY FORWARD!
Never thought I would ever quote the Chuckle berk from a week or so ago, but... "To you...!"
To answer your increasingly fragmenting comments, without getting too side-tracked, I'll just quote you this:
“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” Einstein
@Wardy,
I thank you for further publicising the Property Match (UK) web site, but incase the reason for the pseudonym name change escapes you, it was so that I could comment here without continually publicising Property Match (UK), even though I have a long and committed relationship with it, and I am confident that it will pave the way for a new industry standard of direct online house advertising to be established, someday soon.
@PeeBee,
Can you remember how that argument 'Black is White' goes again? I've forgotten.
You, seem to know the price of everything and the 'value' of nothing! And, you keep telling me you're NOT an estate agent? Yeah, right!!
RR: "PeeBee, you really do need to go back to school, if you think the odds of selling anything, at any price, are 50:50."
FFS!!! HOW MANY TIMES do I have to drive this home to you? THAT IS NOT WHAT I SAID!
Read the explanation that Country Lass has provided for your benefit and YOUR BENEFIT ALONE!
Thank goodness she and others know how the market works and don't need me to draw THEM pictures the way YOU want it laid out before you.
You in a dressing gown? Straightjacket, more like...
was a simple question, how many instructions? how many sales? come on saviour of the housing market. I assume you have some results to qualify your opinion?
you got sussed out minute you started posting on this forum. A one man crusade against agents in a bid to sell advertising to home owners on a site that nobody looks at.
Absolutly pathetic. Leave this game to the professionals and retire gracefully.
I know it's yet more publicity for our web site, Property Match (UK), which you keep banging on about, but that's not what I'm blogging about. Please read it again.
You obviously have no idea how many valuations I've done, and neither do I know (or particularly care) how many you have done, nor am I wasting time trying to get into any of that. It's off topic (again).
You always seem to sway off topic whenever you can't answer difficult questions. It's really a waste of time trying to have dialogue with most of you guys, I'm sorry to have to say that.
Country Lass, PeeBee, yes, it either will or won't sell but that does not make it a 50% chance it will sell ;-) Surely everyone knows that. Surely, debating that is an utter waste of time, for everybody?
Surely you know that if buses run up a road you are walking along, that doesn't mean there's a 50% chance you will get run over by one? Heavens preserve us.
In the same way, just because you are trying to sell something on the market, doesn't mean you have a 50% chance of selling it rather than NOT selling it!! How stupid.
Oh, and by the way; my earlier conclusion stated that too many estate agents deliberately overvalue properties they want to take on. When are you guys going to DO something to correct that? It's messing up the whole market and putting some people out of business. It's also causing a lot of grief to a lot of your clients - have you thought about that? I suspect not.
I'm off to do something more useful than keep replying to this drivel, bye.
RR,
How many valuations have you ever been on?
None is the answer.
You want to talk about over valuing? Your site offers zero advice to a client with regards to price. There is nothing to stop me uploading my home to your site £100,000 above market value. You’re very opinionated over something you have no experience in and do not offer as a service.
The only saving grace is that nobody is taking you seriously.
Would you like some credibility? I’ll give you a chance.
How many instructions has your site got this year? How many homes have sold so far?
@RR - To start, not all agents over-value. I try to give an accurate idea of what they 'should' be able to get, and what the marketing price needs to be to get as close to that as possible. I also agree a marketing strategy with them before marketing the property.
I also don't have a 16 week tie in. I don't have a tie in period at all. The best way to persuade a vendor that you believe the figures you are quoting them is to PROVE you believe it.
I do agree that a property that on for too long is unattractive though.
My take on the whole '50:50' issue isn't that PeeBee is saying that any property that comes on either will or will be sold at any price.
He is saying (I think) that when a property comes on it either will or won't sell. The only variables in the equation are 'how much' and 'who to'. And 'how long' too I suppose.
And he's right. Put a motivated vendor on the market and they WILL sell, if they can afford to. If not the property WON'T sell. Think of it like a coin. You flip it in the air and it will bounce around and land on either heads or tails.
PeeBee, you really do need to go back to school, if you think the odds of selling anything, at any price, are 50:50.
You, and all the estate agents that think like you and discuss ideas like yours. Here's why.
Are estate agents deliberately overvaluing properties? You bet.
The answer is yes they are and have been doing so for years. When you put a house up for sale you usually have a rough idea of it’s value. You know this by looking at similar houses in the area which have recently sold.
However, when you finally decode to approach an estate agent they'll “value” the house and the figure will usually be a higher figure than you expected. You obviously then think you’re going to be better off than you expected, so you sign up for a sole agency contract, usually 16 weeks initially, but ending up longer because you would have to give notice of termination. “They’ve hooked you”.
Next they advertise the house at their valuation but of course, unless you are very lucky it doesn’t sell. A month or two later the estate agent explains that either the market has changed or there haven't been enough viewings or this, that or the other is wrong. Therefore, to sell the house the price needs to come down.
Remember you are still in the sole agency contract, the one that your own over-optimism (or innate greed) got you to sign up for. The estate agent is still in line for their fee and the reduction they suggest won’t significantly change that. The amount involved was factored in anyway. They may repeat this exercise several times, suggesting several successive reductions during the contract period, thus lengthening the time to effect a sale but costing the agent next to nothing.
So in summary they value high to get you locked into their sole agency contract and just talk you into reductions until the house sells, they can wait, but you probably can't. If you can thats fine, but beware; houses on sale for too long become a turn-off for most buyers.
Wardy, I'm not in my dressing gown right now. Hope you understand this OK.
RR
'If I were you I'd stay well indoors and not peek up above the duvet - ever.'
Thats rich, coming from a man that runs his business in a dressing gown.
Mr Perfect: I see you are back. Apologies for not doing so before, but I have responded to your last post on 'Agency boss furious over cheap tactics of council-run agent' (now on Page 2 of Archives).
Sincerely hope you don't find it too boring... ;0)
Realising Reality: "So, you're saying it's 50% it will sell and 50% it won't sell; no matter what price you chalk up!"
YET AGAIN you miss a point; you fail to read a post; and you make it up as you go along. Nothing new then...
I REPEAT... "There is only one definite probability when a house comes to market: that it either WILL or WON'T sell. Therefore the odds are 50:50 - a 50% chance that it will sell. However, in reality, the odds of achieving a sale are far greater than that. Potentially, there is a 100% probability that a house will sell, at some point, for some money." A million miles away from what you portray my words to be...
SO, please stop choosing my words for me - and instead try to choose some sensible, meaningful, and useful ones of your own.
YOUR best shot so far is to suggest that the government somehow miraculously devalue EVERY property price to three times the minimum wage.
Fine - you get that sorted and I'll have the one that the crazy media entrepreneur has up at a million quid on his website!
Until then, I'll just stick to my three up, three down...
While you're on, I can't afford a Bentley either. Can you sort that out with your pals in high places - or do I have to continue to slum it in my Volvo as well?
Keep up the good work Henry, I for one appreciate the inside information, I'm sure many other do also
Henry: From your Blog entry 13/2/11 - "It remains to be seen if they will be disclosed as the Land Registry doesn’t publish all transactions. Their list of exempted deals includes those made between companies, so it’s possible we may never see them."
Have you made a provision for THESE in your stats? If not, do you acknowledge that the numbers COULD skew your figures somewhat?
Although the words "less than 40%" appear here, I can't see anywhere that the EXACT FIGURE is quoted. Perhaps you would post a working link... without it we are flying blind. But, as 'less than 40%' could be 39.99%, might it be possible that all the variables COULD just push the figure up to 'over 40%'?
Sorry, but if I believed for one second that my property had less than a four in ten chance of selling in a year, I wouldn't be bothering to try.
@PeeBee
I'm a bit late coming in here but feel, I MUST!
So, you're saying it's 50% it will sell and 50% it won't sell; no matter what price you chalk up!
And you guys are the ones who we're all supposed to be relying on to advise us about how best to sell our houses???
It's the same as saying "I'm going out today. therefore there's a 50% chance I will get run over by a bus and 50% it chance I won't.
Lawd help us!
If I were you I'd stay well indoors and not peek up above the duvet - ever.
Don't tell fish stories where the people know you; but particularly, don't tell them where they know the fish
All you have been asked for Henry is an explanation. All you are giving is politician posts which avoid giving an answer.
Asking prices on Rightmove are not an indication that only 40% of properties are going to sell.
If agents were over-valuing property by 40% which is your other suggestion, it is very unlikely that the OFT would be reporting that Vendors are on the whole satified with the performance of Estate Agents.
"I will look at producing the same numbers going back five years as you have asked (Sibley's B'stard Child)."
Thanks Henry, I think that would give a better indication as to where we may be heading in terms of trends. I'll stick my neck and anticipate these ballpark percentages:
2010 - 43% (as per article)
2009 - 55%
2008 - 50%
2007 - 65%
2006 - 70%
George - "Don't Mistake Activity for Achievement" is a famous quote from John Wooden. You may (or may not) be active on EAT but since you hide your credentials away it's hard to tell.
What exactly do you expect? If you want local news and weather then you tune into local radio or Tv or go to a local web site. A national forecast may not be useful to you but there are some who like the big picture and as with the anything else you don't like, you can always switch off. EAT, the BBC (and the Guardian) have a national audience. Oh, and as you can see by this all-to-public exchange, contrary to what you assert I am very happy to respect another's opinion - if I know who they are!!
Rightmove, Halifax & Nationwide all produce a national snap shot. All, like me admit that there will be local and regional differences. If you want a local view of your market then tell us where you are and we may oblige although I shouldn't hold your breath!
Better still, why not write one yourself and send it in. Perhaps there is room for a 'My Back Yard Today' slot, eh Ros?
I appreciate the work Henry has taken on here - it's a new angle in a market overloaded with statistics. Is his conclusion right? Time will tell.
There was a thread on EAT the other day about keeping exchanges polite. I was expecting more than the odd finger to be pointed at the HPC lot, but was pleasantly surprised when that didn't happen. This thread seems to suggest that it is more a case of the industry insiders disagreeing with themselves!
However, connecting these two points, with low sales volumes at the moment (I hope we can all agree on that) there is going to be a lot more disagreement over the interpretation of statistics. The numerous HP indices are likely to swing more - leading to more debate as to what's really happening. I for one would welcome an analysis of the seasonal adjusting that has been applied to much of the recent data...
You might find I am far more active on EAT discussion than you are Henry!
Being a Guardian man you will appreciate that other's opinion is as valid as your own, but being a Guardian man you will also be the sort of chap who ignores that.
You have made a tenuous link between the asking prices on portals and the average price of property. Without knowing the detail of the XXXX properties on Rightmove and without knowing that they then completed for £xxxx, you have taped together two bits of separate information and made a fairly bold claim which to my experienced eye makes no sense.
I am giving you a fair and polite opportunity to address the fact that, to me your latest page of fame doesn’t stand up to mathematical, logical or industry scrutiny. You are the “Housing Expert” please explain why I am wrong.
Sorry 'George', you've had your 15 minutes of fame. Either advance and be recognised or hide away and be ignored.
Have a good weekend all.
Hclp.
where does your ego come into this? You have rushed someting to print rather than realising that while what is being offered for sale is related to the average it is only part of what makes up the average and there is no logical link between the two.
By painting the whole market with a fairly broad brush as you have in this article and your other bloggs you are fueling a Journalistic feeding frenzy of mis-information. You should give your audience credit for their experience in their individual market place and if you want to be taken seriously as a "Housing Expert" at least provide comment that isn't full of obvious holes or provide caveats that your comments are restricted to your own known market.
Only when the Public and industry starts to understand where the problem is can the appropriate adjustments be made. Perhaps it is a choice of words but rather than claim 40% of properties won't sell it might be better to suggest that 100% of 40% of the market won't sell.
I am not throwing insults Henry and don't intend to waddle off anywhere especially when I can now look forward to you explaining how and why 60% of vendors are going to reduce their agreed selling price by over £63,000 in order to get a sale. In effect you are suggesting agents are overvaluing properties by 39.87%.
I am not having a go at you Henry but everyone who is making comment about prices and predictions about the market ought to be doing so on an area by area, property type by property type basis.
I can give you documented, exchange evidence of a 14.7% increase in starter home prices and I can give you examples of 17.4% reduction in asking prices of upper end properties.
You have gone out on a fairly thin limb with your comments and generalisations and you ought not be surprised to hear it cracking.
"there IS NO CRASH and WILL BE NO CRASH. "
As an aside PeeBee, i'd call house prices dropping by around 20% in 2008/09 'a crash'. I don't think 'slump' quite fits the bill.
Whether we'll something similiar over 2011/12 is another thing entirely.
With regards to RnR (without seeing the posts you allude to) I suspect it's an impostor as he doesn't have a confrontational writing style.
Always happy to re-visit ('Gourmand Gossip' or whatever your real name is!) so pipe down please - less of the silly asides.
For those who asked, here is link to a graph showing the gap between average asking price and average sale price going back to 2003.
files.me.com/henry.pryor/ifwyz0
The gap has been around £52k historically with one of just £36,452 in Jan 2003. It currently stands at £59,937.
Other points raised include multiple agencies which would skew the numbers IF the properties were being offered at different prices but by and large they're not. I also work hard to strip out joint agencies by de-duplicating records. It's not perfect but some effort is made to deal with this.
I will look at producing the same numbers going back five years as you have asked (Sibley's B'stard Child). Check my blog on EAT next week which may carry them.
As for 'George Daws FNAEA', exactly where does my ego come into this? You say "if you are going to hold yourself up as an expert please do us the courtesy of understanding what you are blabbing on about."
Tell you what, why don't you step into the daylight and let 'us' all see who you are - then we can judge if your comments are worth listening to let alone responding to. Alas I suspect that you will creep away hurling an il-judged insult over your shoulder as you go. Grow up or go away. This site is not for children!
So, in conclusion, no one index answers all the questions. I'm not saying that my conclusions are perfect but in my experience (as an estate agent!) they seem to fit. Like nationwide numbers elsewhere, my suggestions may not be applicable everywhere but in general terms I think they stand up. If you want to disagree, please do it partly why I share them and why EAT publish them but bring reasoned argument with you & try and avoid questioning my paternity, it just makes me cross!
Oh - as far as "potential probability" goes, I think you will find that in your conjoined context it is nonsense. In the context I used the words, it is not. There is a PROBABILITY that ANY house will sell, subject to factors allowing. POTENTIALLY, therefore, EVERY property can and will sell. Show me ANY privately-owned property in the UK, and I will show you a property with the POTENTIAL to sell.
If you disagree then you have never sold a property - and PROBABLY never will...
Maths Grad: Put the following factors into my equation.
Either
1. It WILL sell
2. It WON'T sell
You have NO OTHER information. It will do one or the other. Therfore the odds are 50:50; 2:1 - call it what you wish.
HOW THE ODDS reduce or increase depends entirely on a myriad of other factors which can only be determined by trial. No good for theoretical factoring, then...
PeeBee - 'O'-Level Maths failure - but only because I wanted to... ;0)
@PeeBee
I see that maths isn't your strong point.
Just because there are 2 possible outcomes doesn't mean that the odds are 50:50.
Furthermore talk of "potential probability" is complete and utter nonsense.
If you have figures to support your argument please produce them but if I were you, I'd refrain from making stuff up.
Now this is where EAT comes into its own. At first I read this article completely neutrally. Before comments, I wasn’t sure whether to take this article with a pinch of salt or whether Henrys findings had some merit.
After well though out comments and suggestions it has occurred to me that it is not even salt worthy,
Well done guys, what a lovely day it has been so far for postings. EAT back on track for intelligent conversation.
Big Hugs to all concerned. (not you RR)
However, that's not to undermine his argument although he should have provided a margin of error.
It not an argument it is Guff! Look on Autotrader and get the average price of AMG Mercedes or gas guzzling 4 x 4s, then try to argue that the price of Peugeot 306's are too high.
To publish anything that is not Property type and area specific is simply bunkum. It is simply not possible to make a meaningful story or form any sensible argument based so little information.
As per his usual form I doubt Henry will return to defend his Guardianesque journalism (pretentious codswallop)
If ever the old adage of lies, damn lies and statistics applied it is to all this house price data. Unless the mix of property sizes or values is factored in as 1, 2, 3 bedrooms etc; or >£250, £251-£300, £301-£500, £501-£750, £751-£1m then the avereage value numbers can be severely skewed either way. Simply put sell one house for £2.5m and up goes the average price but down comes the volume, then sell 10 houses for £250k and down comes the average price and up goes the volume.
As with all analysis if you leave oiut the right variable then you ca get the answer to come out wherever you want it. That is why accountants and statisticians get paid lots of money, its not the adding up or recording that takes the skill its the "adjusting"
It's funny you should mention multiple-agent listings et al PeeBee; that same thought ocurred to me earlier. This is a very valid point and one which Henry should have factored into his findings. As i'm not (nor ever have been) in the 'biz' I couldn't even give an educated guess as to what % of listings are not 'new'.
However, that's not to undermine his argument although he should have provided a margin of error.
Although, these same statistical anomolies would apply to any given 12-month period so if Henry provided historical data (using same methodology) over a ten year period (or whatever) the trend would be siginificant - that's something I would like to see.
With regards to the disparity between LR and RM average prices; that's a secondary argument and one I wouldn't mind touching upon at a later juncture.
Sibleys...: Yes. And no. There is a methodology which fits the purpose of the news item. There are a number of methodologies which could also have been used which would give differing figures.
Here is mine. No numbers involved - just plain common sense.
There is only one definite probability when a house comes to market: that it either WILL or WON'T sell. Therefore the odds are 50:50 - a 50% chance that it will sell. However, in reality, the odds of achieving a sale are far greater than that. Potentially, there is a 100% probability that a house will sell, at some point, for some money. Do you agree with this?
The odds/percentages are therefore stacked dependent upon a wide range of factors - not just the couple which Henry identifies. Take speculative sellers, for instance. They come onto the market... off the market... back on again. Probably a significant number of these over ANY 12-month period, thereby skewing the odds downward for sales to listings. RM listings figures do NOT take into account multi-listings, or Agent swops. What percentage would someone care to put to THOSE? These are just two factors - I could go on - but of course YOU and the other HPCers LOVE Henry's 'Under 40% odds', so no doubt they would be pooh-pooh'd no less than the two examples offered...
Similarly, the RM average Asking vs the LR Sold Prices fiasco. Despite one poster having an assurance from the company that their methodology is robust, and 'takes out all the fringe', I highly doubt that this is the actual case (why would it be?) and NO WAY, NO HOW, is 'Mr Average' dropping by sixty grand to sell. YOU know that; I know that - so why do the figures supposedly PROVE that?
Like I have said before, folks such as you, and rantnrave, put forward polite, reasoned argument and I am happy to debate with you (although r'n'r has had a couple of posts in the last week or so that make me think either 'his' name has been either hijacked, or he has gone on the offensive - which would be a pity...). Some of your points are extremely valid. But the market is the market - buyers will dictate Sold prices WHATEVER Agents recommend to ask; and as long as fifty-odd thousand homes are selling a month there IS NO CRASH and WILL BE NO CRASH.
I guess that is where we will just have to agree to differ, mon ami... ;0)
The average price of properties on Rightmove and the average price of property are two different things.
Provide evidence to show that average houses are being marketed for £230,000 and that average houses are being exchanged at £163,000 and then the story holds water.
Apply trendlines to any House price graph over the past 40 years and it shows the average price is currently below the trendline.
Henry your ego is getting the better of your understanding and if you are going to hold yourself up as an expert please do us the courtesy of understanding what you are blabbing on about. We keep getting reference to learned who-evers but it is simply twaddle!
40% of apples will remain unsold because the price of purple leaf broccoli is at an un-affordable high.
884,000 sales last year!
Wow, not bad then.
In the old days a million was a fair batting average.
Why does everyone keep saying that transaction values have collapsed?
RR, interesting point of view.
Now you have issue's with irresponsible lending as well as agents?
Please point me in the direction of the 40 year term, 95% LTV, over 4x income product that you think is crazy. I could sell them all day long!
Bit of a straw-man argument there PeeBee; do you disagree with the methodology?
@Realising Reality:
You seem to have leanings towards a 'Big Brother'' society wiith everything fully controlled!
This is supposed to be a free country.
Every situation is different and all transactions should be based upon the merits of the individual issues.
Why force house prices up to unsustainable levels, only to find this results in a CRASH every 7-10 years? It's pointless, except for those who want to 'trade' in property. Stability is KEY for real householders. This could be achieved by lenders being more prudent and giving proper advice to lenders, instead of simply being hasty to 'sell' money.
Greed is the knife, and the scars run deep.
1. Lending over 95% of the value of any property is crazy. Over 75% as a maximum and should be the norm. Most importantly however, its the price paid that really matters.
2. Lending over 4 times the buyer's income is crazy and irresponsible. Three times the income is OK. This also affects the prices paid and that's the most important factor. In today's housing market, buyers are usually unaware of what other people are actually paying for similar houses despite the greater availability of this information. They should be.
3. Lending over a 40 yr. mortgage term is absolutely crazy. A 25 yr. term is OK. This affects the price paid and again, that really matters, for the buyer.
4. Lenders lending huge amounts to single individuals (who are already known to be mega-rich), just to earn interest whilst taking a disproportionate risk whilst doing so, is equally crazy.
If these four things were dealt with, more with the 'client's best interests in mind, by all the banks and building societies, house prices would stabilise in a way that first-time buyers could, once again, afford them.
Isn't that what everyone really wants now?
It would get the housing market back into gear, and the spin-off sectors making profits once again too.
The mantra for 2011 should be: Market PRICE, Market PRICE, Market PRICE, instead of location, location, location.
"Lies, damn lies, and statistics."
Take a set of statistics; put them in a mixing bowl, and see what comes out.
Of course, leave out certain vital ingredients, and like dough without yeast, nothing will ever rise - REGARDLESS of how much of the others you cram in for good measure...
Interesting, albeit unsurpising (given estimated mortgage lending for 2011), statistic Henry.
Do you have comparable historical data to hand over the previous, say, five/ten year period. In other words, how would this compare to a 'normal' market?
In case the maths is helpful to readers I calculate that 1.3m homes came onto the market in 2010 on top of the 730,000 that were already being advertised at the start of the previous year. So that's a total of just over 2million.
HMRC recorded just 884,000 sales across the UK (with 560,000 mortgages). Just 43% of sellers therefore found a buyer last year and it looks like 2011 will be even tougher.
We started this year with nearly 1 million homes on the market and with even more now piling on the chances of selling this year looks like it will fall below 40%.
The full text of this release appears here;- http://bit.ly/i5UbNM
The BBC interview here;- http://bit.ly/hkJXuH