Early signs are that the housing mortgage market is continuing to weaken more sharply than had been widely predicted.
This is despite today's Halifax house price survey, showing that prices rebounded by 0.8% in January making good the 0.7% drop over the previous three months.
Purchase approvals fell 6.2% in January compared with the month before – itself a weak month.
The new data is based on the valuations activity of a national firm of chartered surveyors, e.surv, the largest distributor and manager of valuation instructions in the UK and which works for over 25 lenders.
The firm says there was a marked drop in demand, and that the housing market stalled in January.
It puts the total number of mortgage approvals at 39,905 which is 17.4% down on last January.
The firm also says that purchase volumes fell by a similar amount across all price bands, up to £750,000. Above this level, volumes fell faster, although it points out that sales volumes in the most expensive properties have held up better than the overall market.
Richard Sexton, business development director at e-surv, said: “The weather has been shouldering the blame for everything later. But this has merely exacerbated the underlying weakening trend in the housing market.”
He added that lenders had pulled back from the market in both December and January.
But he said: “Initial signs are that February will show some improvement.”
David Brown, commercial director of LSL Property Services, parent company of Reeds Rains and Your Move, said of the figures: “They unsurprisingly paint a fairly gloomy picture, given the impact of the weather.
“It’s clear that many lenders are still focusing on repayments to the Government rather than on higher LTV new lending to first-time buyers.
“As depressed levels of lending continue to hamper the number of first-time buyers able to get on to the property ladder, the private rental sector will play an increasingly pivotal role in the housing market.”
Halifax attributed the rebound in house prices to fewer properties coming to the market. It warned that house prices would continue to fluctate all this year.
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Comments
Wow 85% loan to value buy to let mortgages came back today guess those btl landlords will be happier and thst the bandwagon of rental slavery will roll on with added steam?
What a bloody scam - all of it.
The banksters cause inflation and deflation as a means of transferring our earnings and assets to themselves.
This is what it's all about - and if we have a war or people kill themselves or lose their jobs or homes, they really couldn't care less.
6.2% fewer estate agents needed in January compared to December.
Unfortunately they spring up like weeds, as the ones who open think they can always do a better job than the ones that fail
The ones that have failed are sometimes because they are rubbics, sometimes not so hot at getting their heads around the need for cash in the business, sometimes because there are just too many
The new ones open, charge next to nothing, build a market share on high values, then complain that the market is dead and they cannot make any money.
Spoiling it for themselves, their clients and other agents
True PeeBee, EAs don't exactly receive a great reception (i'm largely indifferent to be honest) although that's neither here nor there.
As EAs work on volume of business it stands to reason that there's only so many transactions to sustain 'x' firms. I would imagine that the largest firms have the financial clout to be loss-leaders but the smaller firms will invariably fail.
I hear what you're saying re: "Many are still there - some have even grown into bigger (but no less weaker...) Agencies." I'm sure you can verify/refute this but I recall many an EA going out of business during 2008/09 so this may account for another's growth?
Sibley's...: I remember that being said last time. Many are still there - some have even grown into bigger (but no less weaker...) Agencies. How they survive in all but the strongest of markets beggars belief. Their names are mud in the local communities - yet they still get instructions.
They all seem to work on the 'Virgin Principle' as I call it - i.e.
"There's always a new one out there ready to, ahem, 'service'..."
You all know who they are... ;0)
If anything James, this stalemate will at least sort out the wheat from the chaff. The weaker EAs will go out of business allowing the more established firms to fill the void left by Johnny-come-latelies' departure in the market place.
Which, I imagine will be a good thing for your firm?
Good point Mike, and it really is the only one that matters to our business
Twenty years ago only 8 or so agents covered our whole area, now on Rightmove we have 74 competitors, both on-line and on the high street
I had a stock of six hundred for sale in 1992 and was selling 20 a month which made a profit even on the low fees at the time
Non-seasonally adjusted, down 4.9% in the last 12 months.
Come on Aceofspades, let's hear your bullshit spin on this one, I'm sure you can't resist spouting your drivel !
Tricky one this. Housing transactions are as rare as hen's teeth. Lenders demand 25% deposits. Even at the lowest interest rates in history, young people cannot clamber aboard the property ladder.
Could it be, and this is just a thought, that property prices are too high and are unsustainable?
If this goes on for another year or two (which it will) - it strikes me you only need somewhere between 4000 and 6000 estate agency offices to service the demand - and make a profit.
Before anyone starts cheering the Halifax numbers, non-seasonally adjusted, they are actually down...