The housing market barely moved in April, judging by both the number of For Sale and Sold boards and this morning's monthly report from Nationwide.
Nationwide found house prices had inched down just 0.2% from March, but were down 1.3% over the year. The average house price is now £165,609. Chief economist Robert Gardner said he was not anticipating any great changes ahead. He said: "Since November 2010, house prices have increased in three months and decreased in three months. It is not unusual to see a pattern of modest monthly increases and decreases when the market is fairly static."
According to estate agency sign company Agency Express, the number of For Sale boards converting to Sold were down 3.6% on March, while there was a tiny drop of 0.5% in the number of new For Sale boards going up.
The decrease in house sales in April followed two consecutive monthly rises in the number of houses ‘Sold’ but Agency Express says monthly sales are still up 1.7% on April last year and 11.5% higher than April 2009.
Wales led the way in property sales with the number of houses ‘Sold’ up 6.5%. Only four other regions saw sales increases: the South-East had a rise of 5.2%, the South-West was up 5.1%, East Anglia saw growth of 3.4% and the West Midlands improved by 0.8%. Two regions saw significant declines: Yorkshire down -22.5% and the North-West down -40.9%.
Three cities experienced double digit increases in monthly house sales. Cambridge topped the table with a rise of 26.3% followed by Exeter up 25.5% and Birmingham up 25.4%.
For the second consecutive month, Norwich saw the largest decline in monthly house sales with a dramatic fall of -40.3%. Perhaps the Canaries’ promotion to the Premiership will boost the local market.
The decrease in the number of new ‘For Sale’ instructions in April followed three consecutive monthly rises, but current levels are still 5.1% higher than April last year and 79% higher than April 2009.
Stephen Watson, managing director of Agency Express and a former estate agent, said: “Whilst housing activity has been marginally lower in April than in March, this is not unusual. In fact, since our index began, we have consistently seen a drop in house sales in April.
“The slowdown in activity is most likely to have been affected by the Easter holidays, bank holidays and Royal Wedding being so close together that people have taken the opportunity to go away on holiday or simply put their plans on hold, but it’s encouraging to note that activity levels are still higher than they were in both April 2009 and 2010.”
.jpg)
%20-%20IMAGE%20Client%20Accounting%20%E2%80%93%20what%20are%20your%20options.jpg)
.png)
Comments
I know but WH was raving about it only this year ... how quick he changes his mind. Just goes to show how todays report (if your right) is wrong, but then do we ever believe what statisticians tell us?
Someone said gold was the buy today, yet copper has outstripped that investment tenfold. Crime is on increase with empty properties being targeted for the CH pipes.
@wooden top
Your information is waaaaay out of date. My other half is Brazilian. A big bubble was blown up by mainly foreign speculators in the coastal towns (a la Spain, Dubai, Bulgaria ha ha ha) but that's no longer happening. I wouldn't be inclined to trust the government over there either.
Lost and plot spring to mind.
Wooden top. You're way late with that one. Brazil has shot it's bolt. A mate of mine got on that tread mill about 5 years ago & decided to cash in last year. He can't sell & stuck with 3 properties. I was never interested, preferring more domestic fruit. Some low hanging stuff in Dublin & NI I'm looking into at the moment.
Now the wall of foreign cash is drying up in London & skewing the national average sold price indices, we'll see some big monthly drops over the coming months. It started yesterday with the 1.1% monthly drop from the Land registry.
You better pack your bags then, I see that Brazil (your favourite destination) has just been announced today as the top of the tree for investing in property.
You should still be able to reach us through the internet.
"House prices 'to fall for the next five years' in longest property slump for a lifetime" ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1383668/House-prices-fall-years-longest-property-slump-lifetime.html
A board company commentating on their own activity levels has given me a great insight into what to tell my vendors tomorrow......
Less boards because less houses coming to the market or the Estate Agents using a different board company are putting the houses on!
Locally a competitor of mine uses AE for their boards, I use another Board Company as do the other major players locally and have twice the stock and more sold property month on month selling than they do....so I am a little confused how a board company can be remotely considered as a key commentator unless they have 90% plus market share....forgive me if the do, HOWEVER even then how do they account for the vendors who dont want boards and the property sells.
Hate to say RM can comment on listings with some confidence due to market share but a board company?
LR info fair enough, Banks and Building Societies also granted! But a board company.....errr
CHAS - If you pump the inflation balloon up enough then you create wage inflation. More QE would do just that, if its needed to support house prices. And Yes 'rant and rave', if house prices collapsed by 50% then you will see a need for more massive bank bailouts and the country is already close to the wire re: solvency.
Chicken & Egg.
House prices have fallen because that money lenders will not lend (obvious I know). Why? Is it to 'quickly' rebuild because of their own stupidy in the past. But it doesn't really matter why, they are just not lending under reasonable conditions. If they took a more reasoned, yes reasoned, view prices would not return to pre 2008 levels for some time but would become more stable and the market would revive.
Repeat, what comes first the C or E?
Monkey Tennis - Almost agree with you there.
Not sure that the country would go bankrupt if house prices declined by 50% though. Many people already own their homes outright and a significant number have small amounts outstanding on their mortgage compared to those who took on a loan in the last decade.
I concur that this view is the perception of the majority though, which is why the govt and BoE are trying to avoid such a scenario. I think they would do better to let house prices come down and help those that would be in negative equity, rather than come up with new schemes and 'innovative lending solutions' to help priced-out FTBs as they are now.
You are right that house prices across much of the UK are falling in both nominal and real terms (in the latter case, the declines are approaching 10% YoY). However, since salaries aren't rising in line with the current level of inflation then it's not making property more affordable.
Personally, I think if people were spending less of their income on mortgage payments and rent then they would have more disposable income to spend in the economy. The sooner we get to that stage, the better, in my opinion. Others will no doubt disagree though, but the present approach isn't exactly producing stellar results either.
@Monkey Tennis
I agree that 0.5% base rate has postponed things but prices are still falling and rates can't go much lower.
You avoided my question though. How will QE support current prices? "erm inflation" doesn't cut it I'm afraid. You need wage inflation for that to be the case and we don't have any.
CHAS - Without QE and 0.5% interest rates its fair to assume that house prices would have crashed by about 50% by now, possibly more and the country would be bankrupt. QE is increasing the supply of money in the economy, a tool to produce inflation. therefore in real terms houses are becoming more affordable even if they are going up 0% a year and inflation is at 4% a year. Look at the history of the late 70's and early 80's where we had stagflation and a broken economy and high unemployment, and huge debts. Did house prices crash? No, they actually went up and the reason then was also inflation. It always the tool they use when wew get ourselves in the sticky stuff.
Right, im going to agree with Will ‘Mad Dog’ Mc Hicks………………..( in part)
I have been told by my only gay friend that homosexuality is quite nice and he thoroughly enjoys it, however as I am not a homosexual I haven’t experienced it so I am in no position to comment / have a view on the matter or the benefits it brings to ones life.
This is where me and Will might have found some common ground at last, unless of course Will is homosexual and for reasons I can’t explain I don’t think he is……
I have never experienced a ‘spring bounce’ I hadn’t heard of it until recently and like many of us ive done 20 odd years in the game, its never been discussed in any business I have worked in, and chain of offices I have run or by any EA mate ( I have lots) or by anyone in the industry full stop
So, like homosexuality I have never experienced a Spring bounce so cant comment, good or bad markets Easter is an over hyped period based on god knows what but where people, including me either go away / do some gardening / get drunk at BBQ’s with their brother in law.
And while im at it im pretty handy at selling land, have been for donkeys but ive never experienced ‘garden grabbing’ either, ‘land assembly’ yes but I cannot begin to comment on garden grabbing, spring bounce or gayness, although as far as I know one of them is a real thing and 2 are a myth.
Jonnie
Tumbleweed down the high street was our experience, we opened on the Saturdays but were otherwise closed.
Oh, and the weather was fab, so sitting in the garden was much better than sitting in a hot office playing solitaire.
It has been suggested that the non property owning “Will Hicks” has been Repossessed hence his bitterness that spews over every post, possessed with hated, poor lad.
Will don’t blame the whole EA world, we do pay our taxes to maintain benefits levels, you need to get over it and move on, you are going to bust mate. Don’t do that, you are some needed humour to laugh at.
Is this the same nationwide that only states its preference to lend to BTL buyers with a very low LTV. That's how confident they are in this market.
Land registry average price DOWN 1.1% this month;
time to put up those "early summer sales" signs up
in the window, as the "Spring bounce" never happened guys.
@Monkey Tennis
Please explain how QE will support current over-valued property?
I think you give the BoE too much credit. There is already a crash happening in NI, Scotland, Northern England and Wales. Midlands next. SE soon and then, dare I say it, London.
I doubt it Ray.
I commented on this site several weeks ago that the run of bank holidays would be the next excuse after the snow to blame on low transactions and falling prices.
Something along the lines of "banks' lending returning to sustainable levels frustrates out of touch vendors and sees prices edge down in a stagnant market" would get my vote.
Admittedly your version is more punchy though.
The housing market is a puppett on a string to those lovely chaps down at the bank of england. Their plan is to keep house prices static and let inflation catch up to make property more affordable. They WILL NOT allow a house price crash because they can't afford for banks/uk to go under. Rates will only go up if house prices do and QE will only be pumped back in if they fall.
Easter is always a poor selling period, nothing new here then plus with a double hit. Sorry mad HPC brigade.
"...........“The slowdown in activity is most likely to have been affected by the Easter holidays, bank holidays and Royal Wedding being so close together that people have taken the opportunity to go away on holiday or simply put their plans on hold, but it’s encouraging to note that activity levels are still higher than they were in both April 2009 and 2010.”......"
The most important current statement regarding April of them all?
Chas - Alas a quick check of numerous UK media websites reveals that of the two reports out today, the Nationwide data is getting more coverage and being spun as 'house prices flat'. I guess that means at least another month of over optimism amongst vendors. Sigh.
Volumes are falling off a cliff too.
@RnR
Some spring bounce. Even with the market doped up on cheap money this is looking like a proper, balls out, price crash.
I've posted this already on an older thread but it is relevant to this story too:
Land Reg data for March just out shows prices falls in every region of the country. MoM -1.1% across the country and YoY accelerating further downwards to -2.3%.
What twaddle, percentage based on what? Percentages can be misleading. We had a 50% reduction one month, which was still 25% higher than one of our competitors who had a 100% increase that month!
The story at least confirms that the Easter was poor nationally and the market is still in reccession which shouldn't be a big suprise to agents.
I thought Nationwide says prices inched down 0.2% not up? Depends whether this is the seasonally adjusted or non-seasonally adjusted price.