IQ 4

Industry Quake 4 the final countdown

'I can't be reasoned with Geez' these were the words spoken by a 'Youf' who had pursued me from my flat in central Lindon in response to my attempt to talk him out of attacking me. Despite his attempt not to be reasoned with, fisticuffs were averted, I went on my way and he returned to the school playground bemused but but better off than he would have been had his emotions got the better of him.

Since the beginning of the year I have been pointing out that the Agents Mutual exclusivity rule will be its undoing and from what I am reading and hearing this is now self evident. Russell Quirk of E-Moov, he who reported AM to the Competitions Authority has already dubbed the ill fated enterprise 'ConTheMarket' and you don't need to be a genius to work out that this name will stick.

I realise that if you have signed up for AM it is painful to read all this criticism and easy to see me as the enemy and it may be that you to don't feel like being reasoned with but really I'm not your enemy, really I'm a friend and if you take my advice I think you will thank me in the end.

I am an estate agent with 10 offices, we advertise on RM and Z and of course I would like to see the industry unite and provide a credible alternative property portal that would give us control over our online destiny as well as control spiralling costs.

However, AM is going to do none of these things, what is much more likely is that it strengthens RM adds Gris to the mill of online agents, alienates our clients, gives the popular press something to crucify us with, damages the interests of high st agents, brings about more unwelcome legislation and lay's members of AM open to vicious attack from their non AM competitors.

Imagine you are a fly on the wall and can listen to some key future conversations , let's start with the Chairman of RM and his Chief Executive at their private club in Mayfair

(please note, these conversations are imaginary)

Chairman

'How are you old bean, classic Bentley running well is it'

Chief Executive

'Yes thank you and I trust work on the Super Yacht is progressing smoothly'

CM. 'Quite so but what brings you here my boy'

CE: 'Well sir, it's 'that' time of year again (slight giggle) and I bring good news

CM 'Oh yes, so it is (repressed guffaw) what is the good news

CE 'Well you remember me telling you we were all getting a little worried about that upstart Zoopla treading on our toes and making it harder to achieve the exponential fee growth targets''

CM (Face darkens, grey eyes look thunderous) 'What of them, I thought this was good news'

CE (barely contained hysteria) 'Oh it is, it really is. You see, you remember the falling out we had with Ian Springett and that idea he had to start up in competition with a bunch of old school chums'

'Well, their rules say their members have to choose between us and Z and it seems that they are almost all going to choose us' (bursts into hysterical laughter)

CM 'Cheers old boy, make that a double (fee increase that is)

And now let us alight in the press office of a well known tabloid news paper

Headline writer 'Ow bout this Guvner 'Extra Extra read all about it estate agency cartel exposed, extra extra read all about it'

Editor 'you are an idiot remember your place you're a bloody paperboy not a headline writer'

Paperboy 'Sorry guv, got carried away a bit'

Editor 'But you do have a point, go and fetch ace reporter Dirt Digger and tell him I want him in my office now'

And now we go into the home of a recently instructed vendor

Husband 'oh Maud, what have I done'

Wife 'Oh Henry it's not your fault'

Husband 'I know but I feel such a fool, you do still love me don't you Maud'

Wife 'Of course I do Henry because I know you'll put it right

Husband 'I will won't I Yes I will because I'm angry, filled with righteous indignation, Maud pass me the telephone and make me a cup of coffee with two sugars'

Wife 'Oh Henry, (swooning voice) you are so masterful

Husband 'Is that the manager No wonder our house hasn't sold, I'm sending you back the cooling off notice forthwith'

Estate Agent Manager 'But it's only been a week'

Husband 'Yes, thank goodness six of your local competitors let me know so promptly, sir I bid you good day (slams phone down dramatically) Maud, forget the coffee we are going back to bed

I hope you found the above Humorous, if not, please remember I am an estate agent and I did my best. What is important here is that we all see the danger that AM presents to the industry and how flawed their approach is proving to be in the current climate.

With the exclusivity rule in place, everything AM seeks to achieve its likely to achieve the reverse. It wants to strengthen the high St but it will grant a huge marketing USP to online agents ' not only are we cheaper than the market leading high St Agent, we have a greater reach as well, let me explain why'

It wants to tame Rightmove's fees, yet its policy of recommending members drop Zoopla will do the reverse, this has for me, been the most perplexing and challenging part of the AM strategy. It would be tooeasy to write it off as simply mad, I have had to try and put myself in Ian Springett's position and see things from his point of view because he clearly believes it is the right strategy.

What I have concluded is that the strategy is based on the instinct of the predator to cull the weakest animal from the herd. Having understood the strategy it is now possible for me to explain why it is flawed. Instinct aside, RM and Z are not a herd and AM are not a predator, let me give a better analogy.

Imagine three armies, one RM one Z and one AM who, for the sake of simplicity let's say represents the interests of High St Agents. In this scenario imagine that AM has enough fire power to hold off both RM and Z indefinitely, or to badly damage just one.

AM has decided to throw everything they have got at Z, who they see as the weaker of the two, putting them at the mercy of RM the original enemy. The sensible strategy would be to bring RM down to Zoopla's level and increase their own bargaining position, not reduce it.

There is a lot of negative talk online in the forums about Zoopla being 'useless' and producing no good leads, another theme is about RM having three times the traffic. This is all Propaganda and nonsense. Zoopla has a slightly, lower market share than RM but is closing the gap fast. The fact that RM has a lot more page views is actually the result of a clumsier user journey and does not produce more unique visitors, or more serious enquiries.

Post AM the thing that will change is that users will no longer be able to see all the stock on either RM or Z, they will instead have to visit both which will mean the traffic of both will go up not down. There will still be no need to visit AM though and if the rumours of holding back instructions from RM and Z are true, despite any benefits this may convey, it will give further ammunition to a hostile mainstream press and competitors on and offline.

So, if you really can't be reasoned with about joining AM because it's too late, for goodness sake choose Z not RM . It will cost you less, you will get just as many serious enquiries and you will have improved your negotiating position, it's the right decision for logical, pragmatic and emotional reasons.

This article has been a big challenge to write, over the year I have read countless posts on the subject and replied to many of them. The frustrating thing has been the lack of engagement from Ian Springett himself.

As those of you who have read my previous articles will know, it was Ian's Springett's decision to ban me from attending an AM meeting to which I had been invited, merely for having had the temerity to question the exclusivity rule, that directly prompted me to represent the alternative view so strongly.

However I was and remain open minded and eager to hear what he has to say in response to my serious misgivings, misgivings that it would appear are shared by the majority of the industry.

As we have a general election coming we have been treated to the spectacle of Ed Miliband trying to justify the unjustifiable and calling out David Cameron to take part in a televised debate, so the people can decide between their views.

In this spirit I am hereby challenging Ian Springett to debate this issue properly in a platform that will allow those interested to also put their points of view. I will leave it to Ian to choose the venue, here, or maybe another more favoured publication, I'm not worried, the question is, is he.