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Worrying discrepancies in latest housing market reports

09 July 2010
Written by rosalind renshaw

Sales volumes up – prices down: that appears to be the story for June.

However, there are puzzling discrepancies in the two latest housing market reports.

According to the LSL Acadametrics house price index, housing market transactions soared 20% last month. They went from 52,975 in May to an estimated 63,500.

Way down on the long-term monthly average for June of 100,213 deals, the rise reverses the abnormally large drop in transactions during May.

Unlike Acadametrics, Halifax is silent on transaction levels, but hints that housing market activity has eased. It says that mortgage approvals in the three months to May were 3% lower than in the previous three months, “indicating a modest softening in housing market activity”.

Both Acadametrics, which produced its report for the first time in conjunction with LSL’s input, and Halifax yesterday were agreed in reporting falls in prices. Halifax said prices fell 0.5% in June and Acadametrics said they fell 0.6%.
 
Halifax has reported house price falls in four out of the last five months, with the pace of the decline increasing.

The Halifax figures show that prices are still 7.5% higher than their April 2009 low, and the average UK house price now stands at £166,203.

Acadametrics, which puts annual house price inflation at 7.7%, says house prices are in fact lower (by 5.9%) from peak, which it says was February 2008.

More concerning is the huge disparity in average house price. Halifax says it is around £166,203 whilst Acadametrics puts it at £218,000 – an unbelievable gap of £52,000.

So large is the discrepancy that, despite agreeing on other changes, the two indices once again call into question the reliability of such surveys, given the headlines they create and the rush of experts to comment.

Once again, it seems, we will have to await the Land Registry figures.

Comments

  • icon

    As the NAEA CEO says quite openly - we should all ignore the housing "statistics" as they are based on a very low poll of companies based in selected areas. Richard Copus is right what he says.

    • 12 July 2010 17:21 PM
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    Every pocket of the UK is different! The Halifax are not the be all and end all!!! infact they are closing local branches left right and centre in our area, these in coroporate agents offices!! i bet my bottom dollar that these agents will be creaking in their boots becoming unviable.......

    • 10 July 2010 19:26 PM
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    Why would anybody take the Halifax seriously....my view is inspirational ..prices up one week, down the next and all over the place after that... isn't it like that most of the time

    • 09 July 2010 14:12 PM
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    Don't forget that it is a well known fact that 25% of these reports are complete works of fiction in one in four cases.

    • 09 July 2010 11:35 AM
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    3 months ago the Nationwide came up with figures for the south-west region and some of its constituent parts which can only have been pulled out of a hat. One of the investigative reporters from our regional newspaper is going to delve into the origin of the data. Hopefully these new discrepancies will be grist to her mill! Unreliable data is worse than no data at all.

    • 09 July 2010 11:19 AM
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    Well I'd like to hear what the signboard chappy has to say before jumping to any conclusions.

    • 09 July 2010 11:08 AM
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    Prices are dropping & thats a fact not fiction. More property coming on the market, diluting premium prices, mortgages harder to get hold off. "just about to, or already dropping off the cliff" springs to mind. COME ON!!!!

    • 09 July 2010 10:23 AM
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    Lies, damned lies & statistics.

    • 09 July 2010 09:54 AM
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