The sun is shining, Andy Murray won Wimbledon – and the RICS is in chirpy mood.
The property market is continuing to show signs of recovery, says its latest housing market survey – which has more net balances than a tennis champion could swing a racquet at.
Indeed, 21% more chartered surveyors reported prices rose rather than fell in June, while the outlook for future prices is also strong with a net balance of 23% more respondents saying they think prices will rise rather than fall over the coming three months.
Furthermore, our sunny surveyors also expect home sales to rise over the coming three months, with a net balance of 45% more predicting sales will increase. Apparently, this is the most positive reading in the RICS’s housing market history, which began in April 1999.
Even the fact that new instructions seem a bit thin on the ground (we think that’s what the RICS means when it says that the balance is positive but “actually falling back in June from +15 to + 12”) doesn’t get in the way of the surveyors’ optimistic disposition.
Peter Bolton King, who used to be quite rude about the RICS housing surveys when he was at the NAEA but is now RICS global residential director, said: “After what has seemed like a very long wait, we are finally starting to see what looks like the beginning of a recovery in the housing market.
“It is important to remember that activity levels still remain depressed by historic standards, but the various initiatives designed to encourage the provision of finance into the market do appear to be paying dividends.
“Despite the increased interest in buying a property, our numbers continue to show that demand from would-be tenants remains firm and that rents are likely to continue to edge upwards over the next 12 months.
“As the cost of shelter moves higher, it is absolutely critical that the Government continues to focus on its role in supporting the delivery of more new homes into the market.”
There were 330 contributors to the RICS survey, which is used by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to help decide interest rates.
The Telegraph report stated that the RICS Housing Market Survey “is the oldest and regarded as one of the most authoritative”.
EAT remains unconvinced why this should be considered the case. Why doesn’t someone ask bricklayers what they think?
Comments
The headlines once again mask the detail in this 'sentiment' survey.
According to Matthew Pointon of Capital Economics who has the full RiCS survey 58% of surveyors saw actually saw 'no change'. The monthly PR triumph that is the RiCS House Price Report gives a headline based on the balance of agents/surveyors who report rising prices minus those who reported a fall. The 58% who report 'no change' are ignored.
Here's how RiCS themselves explain the net balance calculation to journalists - "Proportion of respondents reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall (if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the net balance will be 25%).".
So, like shorter hemlines people may welcome summer headlines such as "Outlook for house buying is brightest in 14 years" remember that the majority of the 330 respondents on who's views these banners are based actually saw 'no change'.
If you would like to see the press release it's here - http://www.sentpressrelease.com/email/attachment/download?hash=7bb964cabff7fcbf7ad146d23110fe612afa3b305e1e96b691dbdbad21311eda