The Government’s latest official house price index shows that first-time buyers paid £173,000 for a property in June.
But the Office for National Statistics’s new survey once again highlights the extraordinary mismatch with the Government’s other official house price index, the Land Registry.
The Land Registry’s average house price in June, paid by all buyers, was £161,777 – less than the figure quoted by the ONS just for first-time buyers.
The ONS gives £231,000 as the average price paid by all buyers in June – a £70,000 discrepancy between the two surveys, making it effectively impossible for much credibility to be attached to either.
To add to the mystery, ONS quotes house prices across the UK, while pointing out that the lowest house prices are in Northern Ireland (£131,000), Wales (£154,000) and Scotland (£180,000), by contrast with the average house price of £240,000 in England.
Thus, including house prices in Northern Ireland and Scotland lowers the ONS average. Yet this still manages to be vastly higher than the Land Registry’s average price which covers only England and Wales.
The discrepancies, of which the national press seem unaware, continue with the ONS saying that house prices rose 2.8% in England and stayed unchanged in Wales over the last 12 months. According to the Land Registry, there was barely any movement across England and Wales as a whole.
The ONS also says that annual house prices were driven by a 6.5% rise in London, and by increases in the South-West and South-East of 2.3 and 2.2% respectively. The only decrease in England was of 1.3% in the North-East.
A leap of 5.9% in the price of new homes to stand at £216,000 contributed to the average rise, according to the ONS. It said that by contrast, the average price of pre-owned dwellings rose by 2.1% in the same period.
UK average house prices increased by 2.3% over the year to June 2012, unchanged from a 2.3% increase in the year to May 2012. The average UK mix-adjusted house price in June 2012 was £231,000.
Excluding London and the South-East, says the ONS, something called the ‘average UK mix-adjusted house price’ was £187,000 – still higher than the Land Registry’s overall average.
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Comments
Sorry Pee Brain from Scunthorpe?
I couldn't hear any bells here, the bell must toll for you if you can hear it.
Off you go to your class now, good boy!
In your idiot mind, yes I am.
You don't need to draw me a picture on that one, either, by the way.
Was that the bell ringing? You'll be late for class.
REMEDIAL class.
PeeBee?
Are you from Scunthorpe?
Still splitting me sides rant that was classic, school humour, everyone will bem retired at some point so be below the belt at Ray even for you.
Better book that retirement cruise quick then Ray, in case that goes up too!
Stop Press: Bungalow prices are on the up!
anon. If I had "missed" your miserable attempt at schoolyard humour, then I would not have referred to your shining wit - would I?
As it is, your last post where you resort to forcing gutter language down the throats of readers has been reported and hopefully soon removed. Bet you were chuckling like a good 'un when you pressed submit on that little gem of a post, huh?
Time to step up a notch (or twenty...), sunshine. You're lagging way behind in the smart stakes...
Oh dear, anon - still you continue blindly stumbling towards the world record for annoyingand irrelevant posts
One thing that consistently shines throughout your drivel, however, is your wit.
Yes - as the Rev. William Archibald Spooner would no doubt have proclaimed - you are one Hell of a shining wit...
and his
We are not reading your twaddle, it's boring
Are you not aware of what people really think of you??
Tosh is all you come out with, week in, week out
So please go take a run and jump.
Blimey Brian, you've summarised every single post you've ever made. Well done.
that went over his head too?
read the left margin old chum, as you are one too...
...and to the single idiot who posts below:
At least their "twaddle" is educated and on-subject.
I would rather read the rants of Hendry than your drivel.
Please - show us all how this 'run and jump' thing is done correctly - I assume that you are an Olympic champion at it?
To those idiots spouting off on house prices.
We are not reading your twaddle, it's boring
Are you not aware of what people really think of you??
Tosh is all you come out with, week in, week out
So please go take a run and jump.
Don't flatter yourself Brian.
From what I recall, you've been posting here for a year now and haven't made a single meaningful comment. You post with a different name each time, so it looks like you are many different people, but it's still just the same sad loser behind each comment. If you find so much enjoyment from doing this, then your life must be really meaningless. I actually pity you, kind of. You've obviously made some very poor decisions re property in the last few years, which is why you troll anyone who isn't talking the market up.
You didn't tell us where you went on holiday by the way. Skegness, Blackpool Pleasure Beach...?
Oh dear rant you failed sorry to hit a nerve, dont worry you can re-take.
You're getting worse with that one Brian. This country really is in a mess, even the trolling is going downhill.
I noticed you managed to make the same comment on two different discussions - the creative juices really are running low, aren't they. It was only last month you managed to make five different posts on five different threads in seven minutes. If you were on holiday recently, it obviously hasn't been enough of a rest.
Did you get your A level art and RE so you can go to UNI Rant?
You've been quiet for a week or two Brian. Have you been away on hols?
Friendly word of advice - if you're going to troll a website, you really need to be more creative and entertaining than that previous effort. Is that the best you could come up with???
who cares? other than you 3?
Hawkeye, no it doesnt go to show that at all. It shows that one of the averages is up!
Month 1 you sell 10 houses at 100K
Month 2 you sell 3 houses at 80K 6 at 90k and1 at 250K
For Each month
What is the av. mean house price?
What is the av. mode house price?
What is the av. median house price?
Have prices gone up or down? from month 1 to 2
Just goes to show prices are rising. I found this out with some local research so is the market on the turn and is the RICS talking out of the wrong end?
1. Perhaps we will see more multiple occupancy, reducing demand
It's already happening. I have read that a million adult offspring have returned to their parents' accommodation since the Credit Crunch started. Can't recall the source here, but on a personal level, I have seen many friends and colleagues go down this route.
2. Perhaps prices will correct to more affordable level
Given that the cost of everything else is 'soaring' (copyright Daily Express headline writers), I think this is the most likely of the three. We are subject to international food and fuel prices to a level that is beyond our control, land prices to a lesser extent.
3. Perhaps there will be a return to irresponsible lending
This is the least likely in my opinion. The banks have really had their fingers burnt here. New international legislation also limits the lenders' freedom in this area. The 125% mortgages, liar loans and interest only deals needed to support the current level of house prices are all evaporating. Low transaction volumes (caused by record low interest rates and unprecedented lender forbearance) are preventing the subsequent drop in prices from being realised.
Another factor here is the demographic one. By 2020, those that have been negatively affected by the boom in house prices will form the electoral majority. Policies that have supported high house prices will be revisited and revoked.
In the coming years, the Boomers are also going to be looking to downsize and sell their family sized homes to the smaller generation beneath them. That generation though has been squeezed financially for a while now. Considerable number of Boomers believe their offspring to be financially irresponsible too. Combining the return to sensible lending, the Boomers' demographic size and the poor state of the finances of the generation beneath them, it's not exactly clear going forward who they expect to meet their record asking prices. People may not be so keen to buy large property too if the cost of heating them continues to rise.
R&R I agree that word "average" is confusing for many when discussing house prices, wages and affordability
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7581120.stm
Most people (mode) earn below the mean average wage and most sold prices (mode) are below the mean average.
So often we are not comparing apples to apples when people say average.
What cannot be denied (if you compare the same average wage to the same average price) is house prices are less affordable than they have been for a long time (includes renting) .
How will people and the market overcome this
1. Perhaps we will see more multiple occupancy, reducing demand
2. Perhaps prices will correct to more affordable level
3. Perhaps there will be a return to irresponsible lending
Or maybe a mix of all three..
The same set of data can be interpreted in totally different ways. At the most basic level, it's the difference between the mean and the median way of calculating an 'average'.
The same confusion can be seen in average earnings data. The mean average salary in the UK is something like £36K, but that is skewed by the top end. Line all of this country's workforce up, with the lowest full-time salaries at one end and the highest at the other end, and the guy in the middle will be on £25K.
The devil really is in the detail, in this case, how the 'mix-adjusted' formula is made up. I think there would be less confusion if any house price survey simply excluded the top and bottom 5% of transaction prices.
Another thought here is that if potential FTBs can't get a deposit together and potential SecondTBs are stuck in negative equity, then the house price indices are recording a greater percentage of larger property transactions than in years gone by. This presents the illusion of stable prices. Ditto for the London effect. If prices in Prime Central London are soaring and the national house prices are flat, prices must be falling in most other regions.
rantnrave - apologies for my woefully incorrect statement!
I should know better by now, should I not, mon ami... ;o)
So - what is YOUR take on the report?
"You just pick the one that suits your particular agenda as being the "factual" one..."
Not exactly. Only those showing falling prices are correct.
; )
Typical responses - "I don't like those figures so I'll elect to ignore them..."
Matthew - how can ANY house price report "compare apples with apples"? Only if 27 Acacia Avenue was sold each and every month would this be truly possible.
John Lacy - try reading the report for your answer. Page 11 onward.
Let's face up to facts here, huh? ALL the reports are MDT. You just pick the one that suits your particular agenda as being the "factual" one...
The clear problem with this story is that the ONS and Land Registry are not comparing apples with apples,... pointless.
I'm much more likely to believe the Land Registry figures even allowing for the sundry Stamo Duty massaging schemes.
Does anyone know from where ONS gets their statistics?