People are growing in confidence about the housing market, two new surveys have claimed - ironically, on the same day that official figures show Britain has slipped back into recession. A third survey separately pinpoints growing optimism among first-time buyers. This morning, ONS data showed that Britain's economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of this year.
Halifax, however, said this morning that 39% of respondents to its ‘Housing Market Confidence tracker’ poll believe house prices nationally will increase next year – almost double the proportion that believe they will go down.
A similar poll by property portal Zoopla says that 67% of British home owners expect house prices to rise over the next six months. The average property price across Britain is expected to rise 3.9% between now and October.
The Zoopla poll also says that people are now finding it easier to get a mortgage than at the end of last year, with 17% saying availability has improved. However, in the Halifax poll, 25% think that lack of mortgage availability is a major obstacle to home buying, and 45% think that raising a deposit is a serious problem.
Both the Zoopla and Halifax polls report highest confidence among home owners in London, where house prices are expected to rise by 5.5% in the next six months, according to Zoopla.
The Halifax survey says that most people still think of it as a buyers’ market: 55% think now is a good time to buy, more than double the 24% who believe it is a good time to sell.
The Halifax poll also finds that nearly two-thirds of people (61%) are worried about job security, citing this as the major potential threat to the housing market.
In the third poll, from the Post Office, aspiring first-time buyers were asked about their plans. Of those who plan to buy within the next five years, 14% expect to buy this year, and 22% next year.
Almost half (45%) are confident of being able to fund the deposit themselves by saving up, while 16% will get help from their parents and the same proportion plan to use the Government’s FirstBuy scheme.
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Comments
I have been having a think about this and you know what, there is no bloody recession.
Im not looking to have a scrap about whether the stamp duty thing is what made the first bit of the year so good, don’t care about that as all the front end stuff is still flying, viewings, offers, deals and all that are fine and im certainly not the only one
What im talking about isn’t just the property market but everything, restaurants are full, the bloody travel agent was rammed yesterday, the pubs are busy with lunchtime workers and life goes on.
I suppose we will all know if there was a recession in Q1 this year later when all the stats are out meanwhile I agree, confidence is growing and I believe that’s what counts most in getting the economy going?
Jonnie
C'mon Dave even the Mayans were more upbeat about 2012 than you are!
No doubt worshipped by the Samaritans and the only one to beat Medusa in a staring competition.
Dave, Rodney or whatever your name is, Beetlejuice isn't real!
Most of us are big compared to the Japanists.
not at all I was Big in Japan
Hawoo Mr Dave, why u tawk about japan so muuuush, u have bad expeweeance in japan?
I don't wish anyone bankrupt and I don't hate btl investors...I'm just giving my opinion with evidence on a free internet discussion board.
What I do think is that propping up a housing bubble so our kids can't take a stake in society is extremely bad for the economy,as they are the future taxpayers and growth innovators.
people with 5,10+ properties are dicing with financial ruin
Dave, comparisons with Japan just isn’t doing the argument any good. Nobody will listen, why should they? I haven’t seen another HPC'er jump to your defence either.
In fact it makes it seem that you are clutching at straws a bit and your argument is just fuelled on an irrational hatred of BTL investors.
Why do you hate them so much? Wishing people bankrupt just isn’t cricket is it mate?
AofS "The population is overcrowding and their is a housing shortage." I assume by this you conclude that prices can only go up.
OK
There are approx 25 Million Homes in the UK
The UK's population is now 61.8m
One for every 2.5 people or one for every 2 adults
Average house prices are lets say stable?
In USA approx 115M Households and population is 312M. One for ever 2.71 people
Average house prices have dropped!
So it would seem one could argue that he ratio of homes to population does not seem to have an effect on price.
(Hey here is an idea make it illegal to live your own problem fixed) :0)
There is one UK region where talk of property price falls of 50% is no longer theoretical - Northern Ireland has reportedly had the largest property price crash anywhere on the planet this century.
So are investors piling into property there and snapping up bargains? The reverse is happening, with people delaying purchases because they believe the price will still be lower in the future. This becomes a reinforcing downward spiral, with no-one wanting to catch 'the falling knife' in this situation. Sentiment, a particularly big beast in the housing market, has decidedly turned against property as an investment and shows little sign of returning any time soon.
meant more people sell when prices fall(fact)
this from japan
Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 30 million yen[6] (approximately $215,000 US dollars) per square meter ($20,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak, but still managed to be listed as the most expensive in the world until being surpassed in the late 2000s by Moscow and other cities. Tens of trillions of dollars worth were wiped out with the combined collapse of the Tokyo stock and real estate markets. Only in 2007 had property prices begun to rise; however, they began to fall in late 2008 due to the financial crisis.
fact is that more people sell prices fall...these are called forced sellers
prices are likely to stay down for 20 years just like japan..where the prices are still 40% less than 1991
btl portfolios will be decimated by
1/negative equity breach of contract
2/rising interest rates
3/lack of rent demand
4/rising costs
5/rising unemployment
only 6% of uk land is developed and just because there is demand does not mean prices will rise...its supply of credit which determines that
The only place there is a significant shortage of properties in this country is the South East. That's mostly down to the lopsided economy and the heavy presence of the finance industry in that region, which is currently shedding jobs.
Where is the finance coming from to buy these properties at knock down prices? Banks are in no hurry to lend. There are people out there who are asset rich, but for many of them, their cash is tied up in the properties that, in this scenario, are falling in value.
"when uk prices fall 50% people will buy rather than rent and rents will fall dramatically"
Of course people will (WANT TO) buy rather than rent with 50% reductions. At the same time, even more people will "WANT TO" stay in their home and not sell at all.
So that means there will still be a strong rental market. The population is overcrowding and their is a housing shortage. Don't forget that either.
If properies ever did drop 50%, I would buy a second home and try and let it out to you. I'm not looking for a second home now, but with a 50% off blue cross sale on houses, how could I (and the rest of the British vendors) resist adding a second home for a knock down rate?
Just because a property value drops, it does not mean anyone is going to sell. In fact, in most cases, the owner can still meet the payments and will continue to live in their home.
Houses down by 50% is not the dream world you anticipate... prices wouldn't stay at that rate for long at all.
Dave, I was just wondering if you might like to buy my caravan.
when uk prices fall 50% people will buy rather than rent and rents will fall dramatically
whose gonna rent all those btl properties with no security?
I'm amazed people cannot see whats around the corner despite all the evidence in front of them
you are delusionally complacent
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-24/irish-bank-evicts-pensioner-after-155-billion-losses-mortgages.html
irish houseprices to fall 70%
and you think uk property won't suffer a similar fate?
perhaps you think all looks strong and ok in the uk property bubble
39% of respondents to its ‘Housing Market Confidence tracker’ poll believe house prices nationally will increase next year – almost double the proportion that believe they will go down.....so its safe to assume close to 40% think they will stay the same = stagnation (price falls everywhere outside London and SE)
A similar poll by property portal Zoopla says that 67% of British home owners expect house prices to rise over the next six months......... They can expect what they like but if they live outside london they will be wrong!
In the third poll, from the Post Office, aspiring first-time buyers were asked about their plans. Of those who plan to buy within the next five years, 14% expect to buy this year, and 22% next year. - So the poll revealed less than 14% of respondents were of any interest to Estate Agents!
Lots of %ages here!!!! What do they mean?
We are in deep do do and these lines and squiggles give us all false hope.
@Dave the BTL portfolio where rates remain stable and with rising rents (as no doubtZ will have some publicity on) will not force any one into bankruptcy - you are talking out of something you should just sit on pass wind through or poo through you dimwit so when you get to the pub just don't bother to come back to work and god save us from amateurs! Oh and by the way Wardy was not being nice to you he was taking the P155.
I suggest that you go join the great unwashed of this society as you have no idea about this business.
14.17 Lengthy consultations begin to knock pub down and squeeze eight overpriced shoeboxes on space slightly larger than an equally overpriced postage stamp.
Permission is finally granted when the RSPCA win a court case to have the promotion sales blurb mention the dangers of swinging a cat around the rooms.
; )
13:45 Dave arrives at pub.
14:04 pub empties.
14:12 pub closes until further notice.
Reason: He went it and started spouting his latest thoughts of doom and gloom!!
wardy
thanks friend
all the evidence is there that things are bad,just as evidence is there that we are just particles eminating from the big bang and that we're born then we die and we spend the time in between,trying to pretend the latter won't happen and that life has a point to it...which is does not.
anyway....I'm off to the pub
classic dave!
@SBC
Thank you for your concern but I'll be allright. I just know from experience that being continuously, falsely upbeat is pointless and can make me look a bit of a divvy.
I sell houses, that's all. They sell for their market value at the time and I don't really care what that is so long as it is me making the sale.
I hate the BS that flies around this industry. And the pointy shoes. They don't keep the water out like the lovely, sturdy brogues that i am wearing.
the housing market is about to take a tumble like never seen in history
8-12% of mortgages are in some sort of forebearance according to fsa
and thats with lowest interest rates since 1650
prices are falling just like in japan where they fell 70% recovery to 40% less since 1991
anyone with a mortgaged btl portfolio faces bankruptcy
Most of the comments over the months seem to have a thread of thinking that estate agents 'volume' of sales is the most important thing? Well is it, because agents are not owed a living. If a particular market/industry collapses firms will contract or go bust.
Maybe it should be remembered that :
Those that want and can buy - will.
Those that want but, for any reason, cannot buy - wont.
It was always thus.
Estate agents 'volume' is not relevant at all to them?
Hants EA, i'm afraid you're far too bearish to be in your job.
Though, yes, vendor delusion - paradoxically - increases the worse the state of our economy.
Ironically, there's a thread over the darkside regarding would-be-buyers refusing to entertain said delusion:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=177879
"...Next door no 34 (which appears identical to No 36) was sold in 2007 for £106k LESS than the current asking price for No 36.
So what's the justification for the £106k uplift in asking price, when the Nationwide price calculator says prices have fallen around 5% in that postcode since 2007? (Zoopla - for what it's worth - backs this up pretty much exactly).
I just don't see the point in viewing when this sort of nonsensical valuation is going on. I'm NOT PAYING £100k uplift on 2007 valuations in the current market, full stop. Anyone who does, in my opinion, is a complete and utter idiot.
Xxxxx, please don't waste my time any more until your valuations come back into line with reality. Don't email with properties, don't phone me unless you are offering fair value, not this total nonsense."
James Smith - "Zoopla: 17% saying MORTGAGE availability has improved, it's getting easie"...Does that mean 83% are saying it has got worse !!!
No, it doesn't. Surely you're clever enough to realise that the remaining 83% does not just fit one alternative opinion.
So following an artifical mini-bounce attributed by the vast majority of commentators to the end of the stamp duty holiday, confidence is not quite as low as it was a year ago. Result!!
Unfortunately, back in the real world, mortgage approvals are already down 15% in Feb, mortgage rates have been rising since the start of the year and the BofE expect mortgage availability to be even more constrained in the near future. Oh and did someone mention the 'R' word?
I expect Mr Market Reality will be visiting the cosy world of delusionville soon enough.
"Zoopla: 17% saying MORTGAGE availability has improved, it's getting easie"...Does that mean 83% are saying it has got worse !!!
Yeah, cos double dip recessions are always good for rising house prices.
The level of delusion out there is almost scary.
I fear CC is right about the new lending rules, the report above describes the usual springtime stream of dreamy-eyed FTBs who haven't had the meeting with the mortgage advisor yet. I saw one couple leave in tears the other week. Others have never been seen again.
Another anecdotal, we lost an instruction recently to a competitor who valued an extended 3-bed semi more than 25% higher than we did, just the worst case of a lot of over-valuing to gain instruction going on (no doubt on the back of this 'optimism' we read about). Chance of a sale in a sensible timeframe: almost zero I would say.
While this sort of double fantasy is going on I can't see volumes improving substantially. Double dip recession is a minor inconvenience with the general market madness continuing.
"Amongst aspiring first-time buyers... Almost half (45%) are confident of being able to fund the deposit themselves by saving up."
Bank of England policy maker David Miles today said "it will take time for Britons to adjust to the fact that they needed to build up deposits of 15 or 20 percent, rather than borrowing the full value of a property."
Halifax calculate the average UK FTB property as costing just north of £120,000 (Q1 2012 data).
So in an era of stagnant wages, rising food and fuel prices and stubbornly high unemployment, 45% of potential FTBs believe they can save £24,000, a figure roughly equal to the average pre-tax salary in the UK.
Good luck with that.
Zoopla: 17% saying MORTGAGE availability has improved, it's getting easier!
Zoopla: 17% of those surveyed say availability has improved.
Post office: 36% of FTBs expect to purchase their home inside the next 20 months.
Halifax: 55% of people think now is a good time to buy.
Recession or no recession. People need a place to live. The vast majority would rather own. If the buyer is a) happy with the price b) can get a mortgage c) are satisfied with the repayments d) have their own confidence, then they will buy.
Rant, you have to appreciate that you are one drop in the ocean. Many potential buyers are not of the same belief as you and this contributes to the thousands of houses sold every week.
The worst thing to do in a recession is to stand still and stop spending as a country. If people are happy with a, b, c and d, they will buy.
UK is now officially back in recession - wonder if that might dent some of this confidence?
Allen on 2012-04-25 09:14:43
Rosalind,
Would it not be a good thing if this load of old tosh was deleted?
Good news isn't good news if its not got substance, I had a yearly review with the bank, asked him how much I could borrow, 3or4 x my income?, his reply was we will now only lend you what you can afford to pay back! now not heard that for a while, the next day Leeds Building Society came out with a similar statement, if you look properly at what people have to pay from their income you will find advances will reduce in size in the future, due to the new FSA rules which should have been introduced ten years ago!. I suspect that most home owners are not aware of the new rules so there opinion is with out substance but only hope.
Surely any positive report is to be welcomed and indeed celebrated?? We are certainly seeing an increase in activity and whilst this may just be seasonal as suggested in comments above, the more we talk about it to the public, the more chance that they will buy into it!??!?
What actually matters here is whether people will be able to buy.. The banks have to start lending if the market is to move forward. It makes no difference what buyers feel will happen. it is not entirely in their hinds. Come on Lenders get the APPROVED stamp out.
They always publish words to that effect, around this time of year.
It's dangerous to keep crying "Fire, Fire", just to draw everyone's attention, when actually there isn't one.
Well.....if Zoopla say it , this must be right! We all know how accurate they are, especially the Z Price etc, so we all need to take this article as Red then!!!! ;-)