Anybody who works in an estate agency office gets used to being asked by friends, relations or the man in the pub: “What is happening to the property market?”
People just love to talk about property, and what better person to ask for information than you?
If we could guarantee our answers to be right, we would all be very rich. A one-way bet comes to mind. But the truth is, we don’t know.
Firstly, because national statistics are meaningless when looking at an individual area. The market is very local; one town may be faring better than the adjacent town. Some roads in a town are better than in the rest of the district.
Secondly, we should only talk about trends. The market has been held back over the last six years due to the lack of mortgage funding. The availability of mortgages has recently improved and extra sales have followed, with the trend of prices moving upwards.
I have regular meetings with a Bank of England representative to talk about business and the property market as part of their fact-finding intelligence gathering operation.
At our last get-together, I was asked if the new Help to Buy mortgage indemnity scheme, enabling buyers to have access to 95% mortgages, and which is coming in to operation on January 1, will be inflationary.
I answered: “It depends on whether there is an increase in the supply of new stock to serve the extra demand the scheme will produce.”
The answer, although true, was not very helpful, making me sound too much like a politician or an economist.
On balance, now only five months away from the magic date, I do think there will be a new price bubble created. Should I email my contactat the Bank of England?
However, I think they already know the answer.
* John Pring is an estate agent in the south-east, has been a commentator and columnist in the trade press, and is a long-term advocate for forward-thinking change and improvement in the industry. He has been recognised by an award for his lifetime contribution to estate agency.
Comments