Average house prices fell by 1.3% last year, according to the latest monthly survey from the Halifax, to finish at £160,063.
The figure is very close to the latest information from the Land Registry but is in sharp contrast to London’s fortunes. This morning, Knight Frank reported that London house prices rose 12.1% last year and are now 7% higher than their previous record in March 2008. Astonishingly, London house prices have risen over 40% since their low in March 2009.
Outside London, however, the picture is very different.
Halifax said that in 2011, on a monthly basis, house prices fell six times, rose five times and stayed unchanged just once. However, they ended with a fall of 0.9% in December compared with November, and by 1.3% in the final three months of the year.
Martin Ellis, the Halifax housing economist, said: “Whilst there was a modest fall overall in prices during 2011, house prices held up well last year in the face of the difficult and deteriorating economic climate and substantial pressure on household finances.
“If the UK can avoid recession, we expect broad stability in house prices in 2012.
“There is, however, considerable uncertainty regarding the prospects for the UK economy which will, to a large extent, depend on how events in the eurozone unfold. In addition, the extent to which households choose to reduce their debts will also affect growth. As a result, the outlook for house prices is also uncertain.”
A report from the Bank of England last week warned that mortgage lending will become tighter this year.
Its report said that lenders expect “the proportion of total loan applications being approved to fall over the coming quarter with some lenders commenting that they had revised down expectations for households’ disposable incomes and hence the affordability of taking out new secured loans”.
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Comments
A post from HPC from me, the 20% drops havent come yet again / for yet another year
Hi Guys it's me again I've been absent for a while but I thought I'd give you an update on what's going on. We had to cave in and buy a property in Feb last year because due to age constraints we were running out of time to get a mortgage. I was a regular on HPC for many years and I waited for the crash that never really came for 7 years. I still think that a correction will happen but it's how long you are prepared to wait that counts. The reason I have popped back and posted is that I did some personal figures based on these Halifax figures. I worked out that what I had lost on the value of my house over the last few months has been offset by what I have paid off my mortgage so in a way the drop in prices hasn't really affected me. The upside is that I'm not having to move around anymore due to landlords messing me about. My advice after sitting around for 7 years is weigh up all of your options carefully. In some ways I regret not buying sooner as I would have paid off so much more of the mortgage, but also in some ways I regret not being able to hang on for the correction that I think will come fairly soon.
Friday, January 6, 2012 11:13AM
Will you nutter! Welcome back mate
Go on, knock us bandy with you your wit and intelligent views, ive missed you
Jonnie
Will Hicks- Good point, so if EA's overprice by 20% then they know whats it worth then, a plus from you to EA's, what a happy 2012 its going to be now you have made that point against most of the rest of the drivel you have posted. How your rent increase coming along, hope you cvan still afford it but the end of 2012.
Big issue anyone?
Broken record- want to buy, buy, don't want don't, but stop trying prove you are clever like rantrave is, he is god.
Infact I think he was on my door step Friday trying to peddle god?? What a quality person rant is, thank god for rant, I am converted
rant: "At the end of the day, this report is about sentiment, not sold prices. It's a reasonable predictor of where prices are heading, but it's by no means an ironcast guarantee."
The second sentence is an extremely interesting and insightful comment, matey. The reason being of course that these surveyors are those who actually in the main are SETTING the prices, by way of their apprasisals (or those of their staff...)! If a lister BELIEVES that prices are going to reduce (or has been given a directive) - then guess which direction his/her appraisals will take!
The RICS are sheep. They follow the lead - but by taking this reactive position they are always behind the trend. This report is their feeble way of SETTING the trend - by predicting that they EXPECT more of the same before it happens! And so their self-perpetuating spiral of doom continues. It is exactly the same when the market turns upward - you watch and mark my words (but you may have to wait a few months after it starts for them to wake up and smell the coffee... ;o)
Now to my bit of excitement over the holiday period! As you know, rant, I am always willing to bear my (...albeit anonymous...) soul to those who give a shizzle to read - so here goes.
You may remember that some time ago I got into a somewhat heated state over comments made by a couple of Estate Agents who said that they recommended family members NOT to buy property in the current market. How someone can spend all day recommending purchasing to prospective buyers; can look their vendors in the eye and state that they are overturning every stone to get their property sold, yet take this stance makes me sick to the stomach. They simply do not deserve to be doing the job they have. I have worked in the property industry for over 33 years, and to this day, I remain firmly of the opinion that home ownership is something that people should aspire to - and that when "the right house" comes along - then you should go for it. That is regardless of whether the market is on the level - OR on the up- or down-swing. It is impossible for EVERYONE to buy in a 'good' market, as we all know; likewise, it is just as impossible that, in a 'bad' market, NO-ONE AT ALL buys. Human nature overruling 'common sense'.
And so it is with one of my lads. He wants to buy a property; he is fully aware that prices MAY go down in the future - but up popped "the right house"... so I 'did a Henry' and negotiated on behalf of them.
I've got to say that the Agent was no fun at all and gave up fighting with me far too quickly - but they realised that it was going to be FAR easier to talk the vendor down to MY expectations than to talk me up to his - and in that respect performed admirably! I won't be using them in a hurry to sell through, though...
In summary, rant - people have a choice. Either they want to buy; or they don't. If the former - then I will do my utmost to facilitate their purchase. If they don't - then I will simply wish them well, as they have exercised their freedom of choice.
Believe me - for every house there is a buyer. That, I would suggest, is a constant - a racing cert. As to whether it sells WHEN the vendor wants it to; and whether it sells for HOW MUCH the vendor wants - well... they are the variables.
Lastly - I sincerely hope you are wrong about FBA. Although we had the gloves on a few times, I believed him to be made of better stuff than this anonymous poster who is baiting you for little or no reason.
(...and by the way, the only reason that I haven't answered your question that has given said poster so much mirth value is that, frankly, I haven't got a chuffing clue! The minute I think of a sensible answer I'll chuck it at ya for further debate purposes, though...! ;o))
Happy 2012 to all you EAs. Don't forget to keep over-pricing by 20%
That RICS update reports that the number of surveyors expecting prices to fall in the future is greater than the number expecting them to rise.
Fair analysis though PeeBee. Those expecting further price falls aren't suggesting 2009 is about to happen again. At the end of the day, this report is about sentiment, not sold prices. It's a reasonable predictor of where prices are heading, but it's by no means an ironcast guarantee.
Found this interesting view in the comments:
Adam Farnsworth BSc MRICS FAAV,
Berrys, Northamptonshire, 01536 532373
...There has never been a better time to buy, low prices, choice of property. Mortgages are available at good rates...
I'm guessing Mr. Farnsworth has less conversations with (potential) FTBs than he used to.
Was wondering if you would care to share any more of the deal you've been helping one of your lads with? The snippet you provided on another thread was more than intriguing. News is that much of north England is approaching or has hit crash speed. Any observations from the ground? I would go myself, but arranging the travel visa and the language barrier put me off ; )
Re Fun Boy Agent. He threw a hissy fit a few weeks back and said he was never posting on this site again. The very next day, an anonymous poster appeared using the same writing style, making identical points and, dare I say it, trying the humour. It's not rocket science to guess what has happened. I stand to be corrected though.
rant: "The latest RICS report out today is also pointing to more price falls though."
Erm... actually, no it doesn't - at least not in the way you intimate, I would suggest...:
• Sales per surveyor while slightly down on November
remains close to its best level since Autumn 2010
• New enquiries record fourth consecutive positive reading
• Almost two-thirds of respondents saw no change in prices in December
The RICS report is so wrapped up in their own importance as to be inconsequential. Not only is the actual number of offices a tiny smattering of the whole market (...and a proportion of them either have little or nothing to do with the residential sales market...) - but of the 221 respondents covering the 340 offices that make up their findings, I can tell you that in my patch, one of the respondents reports for a sixteen-branch Agency; another for six. 0.009% of the respondents reporting 6.5% of the total results!
The report content is deliberately diffficult to comprehend - increasing the mystique of the RICS and embellishing their 'importance'. It also does not offer balanced comment:
"Sales per surveyor (branch) dipped slightly in December, falling from 15.4 to 15.2."
So... LESS people buy a house the fortnight before Christmas than in the four week period the previous month. Congratulations, RICS, on the 'No Sh!t, Sherlock...' comment of 2012 - and it's only the 10th of January!
(The 15.2 sales reported, by the way, is identical to the statistic in the December 2010 report.)
Opens the floodgates for debate or general retaliation by RICS members... ;o)
Why do you think that the anonymous poster is/was FBA by the way, rant?
He never hid behind an alias before - and it really doesn't seem his style...
And Mr T wont be getting on any planes!
Prices won’t rise and the legend in his own mind, rantrave will win a snap election and bring in his manifesto pledge, to make borrowing to buy a property illegal and everyone problems will be solved.
Fool.
Anon, We already own a property (yes we own it not the bank) and dont want to be a landlord? Toddle on yourself (you cant bring happy down).
Actually, Yes, the Poster Formerly Known As Fun Boy Agent. The drops behind the scenes in recent months have been significantly larger than recent end of the years.
It's going to require a very bouncy Spring to avoid revealing the falls that Halifax are currently masking through seasonal adjusting.
No doubt you're going to get fired up about this. The latest RICS report out today is also pointing to more price falls though. I think there's a phone number in their contact details... You could ring them up and shout at them if it makes you feel better.
No Brit/rant/happy and hpc'ers in general. It means you need to know which month to buy your house. Surely even you numpties can see this.
Oh, I forgot, none of you will ever buy a house.
Toddle along now to your own hpc website like good little chaps. No-one reading eat is interested in your year long (2011) drone about house prices. Dont do it again thro 2012. You will destroy Rosalinds good work as agents switch out to avoid your drivel.
I agree, every one is bragging about this figure being low when a month before it was large. I wish I could selectively choose what month to publicise a story and distort reality.
2012 the year of big house price falls.
Since you didn't want to know PeeBee, it means the number Halifax is using for UK house prices in 2011 includes data from as far back as Oct 2010. If they'd just used figures from the last 12 months, it would have shown a greater fall.
Their numbers also show that £100 a day was wiped off the average UK house price in November and December just gone.
Thankfully though, we have Martin Ellis on hand to not make these points widely known...
"On an annual basis, as measured by the average for the three months to December against the same period a year earlier, prices in December were 1.3% lower."
Does anyone care to tell me what the chuff THAT means?
On second thoughts - don't bother.
Indeed they do, Happy; precisely why the world has gone mad!!
They are meaningless but they have influence, Im afraid.
Spot on, Stonehenge.
'averages' are just advertising scams....
This week your average Asda trolley will cost you £2.58 less than your Tesco one....
Average of WHO's trolley?
The world has gone mad!!!
Any statistical analysis by either Halifax or Nationwide concerning house price increases or falls should be ignored! It's just a publicity stunt and bears little resemblance to what is really happening as there is much variation regionally.