David Cameron will lead a minority Conservative Government and will not be challenged by the other parties for two years, a leading Tory told estate agents this week.
Michael Portillo made his predictions at a lunch in London hosted by Live.
He said he did not believe the Tories could win the election outright. He said: “Last time, the Government got less than 36% of the votes whilst the Tories got 33%. Yet Labour won 159 seats more than the Tories.
“A swing of only 3% will be necessary for Labour to lose their overall majority, and I would have thought that extremely likely. But the Tories need 7% to win.” He was doubtful this could be achieved.
He said: “I think David Cameron will lead a minority Government – and for some time. People will not want another election for maybe another couple of years and the other parties will be very cautious about voting the Tories out.”
He said that Brown was unpopular – he also described him as “irrational” – and Clegg a non-contender.
Portillo went on: “I think a big question for the Tories is how they resolve the question over George Osborne.” He said of the Shadow Chancellor that he suffered from “young policeman” syndrome.
Portillo said the election would be played out against a backdrop of a skewed economy, with massive public and private debt. “For most people 2009 ended up better than it started, but not many will be able to say that about 2010,” he said.
“Our national deficit is running at the same level as Greece’s. The British government debt is more expensive to fund than Italy’s. We are walking on ice, but we don’t know how thin it is until we go through. Suggestions of a sense of recovery should be taken cautiously.”
Taxes, he said, would have to rise, and the effect of pouring £200bn into the economy via quantitative easing would inevitably be inflation, which would force interest rates up.
“I am absolutely clear that whatever Government is elected, it will have to tackle national debt,” Portillo said.
He voiced his support of Cameron as leader, saying that Osborne did not have the ambition to lead and that Haig had no wish to return. “Is there anyone else likely to take over from Cameron? Absolutely not. Forget it.
“But that is not to say I am uncritical. The Tory message has become obscure. People have not known what the Tories were about since November 22, 1990 – when Margaret Thatcher left office.”
Portillo also said that HIPs had been an example of how the Labour Government worked: “HIPs were fundamentally unnecessary, and a symptom of this Government’s obsession with micro-management.”
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Comments
Side bet, BNP overtake UKIP. Possibly as a REAL outside bet BNP overtake Lib Dems.
A large slug of this this election will be fought on immigration issues! Not housing, or jobs but immigration, which lets face it is the reason for the other two issues! IMHO!
That said it will be the biggest soap opera this Country has ever seen, and a re-run in two years time!
Great! A lovely positive statement from a senior politician - not. (Except for the HIP comment)
It is just what is wrong with the Conservatives at the moment - trying to be all things to all men. Get a grip and go for it - the country wants and needs it.
If Labour get in again for another five years, I think it's time to emigrate, like many of my clients have!
Surely the reasson Tory policies are obscure is because every time they come up with anything good it is immediately pilfered by this rotten unimaginative Labour government. We can but hope that once the election has been announced they will come up with some good solid ideas.
Portillo is a grim reminder of how one can easily loose a safe seat. If you are Tory get out there and help the cause even if you think your seat is a safe Tory one. We really can not allow a fourth term by these 60s student types who never grew up.