Buyers fell by the wayside once again last month – whilst the number of new sellers also edged down.
According to Hometrack this morning, there was a monthly fall of 2.6% applicants in September, but the number of new listings fell by just 0.6%.
Over the first nine months of this year, until the end of last week, supply has risen at almost twice the rate of demand: over the period, there was a 22% increase in new instructions, but a rise in applicants of only 11%.
Time on the market has crept up again, and now stands at 9.6 weeks.
According to Hometrack, house prices have now fallen for 15 consecutive months, since July 2010. London’s continuing growth, average at 0.2% per month over the period, has propped up the overall picture.
Hometrack’s new report predicts an acceleration in price drops as we head towards the end of the year.
The report also says that its 1,500 agents are saying there is growing pressure from vendors to secure sales before the end of the year. They also highlight an increasing proportion of properties sticking on the market – suggesting price adjustments will have to be in order.
Richard Donnell, Hometrack director of research, said these would “ultimately kick-start a new phase of re-pricing across the market”.
Comments
Unhappy Chappy: "I dont charge a penny."
That's one HELL of a USP, buddy!
I wouldn't recommend you keep up this unbeatable (sorry... suicidal...) introductory offer, though... ;o)
Peebee - yes they need somebody....i find myself helping a variety of vendors by looking into the contracts and fees. I dont charge a penny. Do EA's get paid too little or too much it depends on many factors.
@ Wardy
You said "There is not as much common ground as you may think. You want lower house prices and my job is to get sellers the most.....we conflict. Of course the industry would like more transactions but there is a very fine line between pricing correctly and underselling."
You are absolutely correct - your responsibility is to the seller, to get the most for their house that you can.
I think the current market is probably very confusing for many sellers/buyers. You have the likes of the Daily Express only ever talking about house price rises, and then you have other papers reporting various house price indices showing nominal rises/falls.....depending on whose stats they are reporting.
On top of that the vendor naturally wants as much as they can get. I think the skill of the estate agent is educating the vendor on the state of their local market, and valueing it accordingly.
When I sold my house a few years ago, I went with an independent and he explained the market was turning and the price achievable was less than at the heights of the market. I took his advice, had lots of viewings, sold at the asking price and was very happy. Maybe i could have achieved a bit more, but I was pleased to get a smooth sale at a good price.
My sense of my local market, is that there are lots of overpriced houses that are constantly being reduced, but they are becoming stale. Better to have been priced to sell in the first place than sit around for ages.
What I'm trying to say (in a very longwinded way!) is that the role of the agent must be more than simply attaining the highest price.......it's about the whole process....and certainly about educating the vendor.
As you say.....'it's a fine line'!!
Any independent who’s marketing budget comes directly from their pocket (like me) would be a fool to take on grossly overpriced property. But by the same hand any monkey can undersell a house. It’s not just a question of loyalty also one of professionalism and providing a service. Don’t forget to be solvent you have to have the thing on your books in the first place.
I do sympathise with the point about having to deal with unrealistic vendors (there are a couple at work who are after some really stupid asking prices). That's actually something I've come to understand more through this site...
At the same time, EAs seem extremely loyal to their vendors who, at the end of the day, will not care one jot if the EA they are registered with goes out of business. They'll just move along to the next one. How long does loyalty trump remaining solvent?
Rant, I think because the majority blame agents for house prices without taking into consideration vendors, mortgages, stamp duty, moving costs.....the list goes on. A very blinkered opinion to assume that agents are responsible for everything! The picture is much much bigger than that.
There is not as much common ground as you may think. You want lower house prices and my job is to get sellers the most.....we conflict. Of course the industry would like more transactions but there is a very fine line between pricing correctly and underselling. There will always be overpriced property on the market but this is nothing new. Always has, always will be.
Rant, I want to help you, but you must help me, stop posting here and do some of these ideas I give you to entertain yourself, try this:
Take your car out for a good long drive. Wave at people in other cars or even those you see walking by. If they wave back, offer an angry look and an obscene gesture, it will keep you amused for ages.
When you get bored, try this:
Write the words "Help me" on the back window of your car in red paint. The more it looks like blood, the better, then take another long drive.
I've no doubt that the Man U forum is trolled by Man C supporters etc. What I don't get is why EAs and HPCers has to be a case of us vs them. One party wants lower prices, the other wants more transactions. There has to be a lot of common ground there, shirley?
Rant,
This thread may turn a corner. Please don’t take this as aimed at you but let’s face it, some of the guys at HPC are an unsavoury bunch. I’ve seen posts where people have advised others to pester agents, put in offers only to withdraw and all sorts. You yourself are a great one for opening a post on HPC with a link to the storeys on EAT. Some may call it information sharing others may call it stirring. Some of the agent haters over there really don’t help the cause (as well as some agents) whilst some seem to actually understand the challenges we are facing. At the end of the day I think you, Sibleys and a couple of others I have forgotten, do contribute much to the discussion but I’m sad to say the majority of it is just flaming.
.
OK, Rant, you need more help to entertain yourself, try these.
Push your eyes in for interesting light show:
(Amusement Potential: 1-5 minutes) See a variety of blobs, stars and flashes. Try to make out things - is your subconscious trying to send you a message? Can you control what you see by pressing different areas with different forces? Would it be possible to somehow see the same effects on TV? Or for that matter, watch TV with your eyes shut doing this?
Try to not think about polar bears:
(Amusement Potential: 1-5 minutes) This is especially hard, because by trying too much, you remember what you were trying to avoid thinking of. If you try too little, you end up thinking about polar bears anyway.
Look at something for awhile, shut eyes, study after image:
(Amusement Potential: 2-5 minutes) Another great time waster. It takes about 30 seconds of staring to create an after image, and the image is then viewable for about the same length of time. Fun to combine this one with pushing on your eyes.
Have a "Who is less competitive" competition:
(Amusement Potential: 1-3 minutes) Trying to win at this will make you lose. Trying to lose makes you win which makes you lose. Not trying at all makes you lose which makes you win which makes you lose.
Alas, I'm out in the countryside. Cars passing each other is headline news here.
Most of this site is indeed boring to non-EAs. Only the discussions where people think the economy is just fine and banks are going to lend as they did before are interesting... 125% mortgage anyone?
I can have conversations about house prices with friends, family and colleagues. Their views are of only moderate interest, because at the end of the day, they aren't trying to sell the things for a living (judging by some EAs comments here, I actually wonder if they aren't that concerned about selling houses either...)
In normal times, EAs can focus on their turf and get on with things without having to pay too much attention to the wider national or international picture. These aren't normal times though. Events in Greece etc are likely to have an impact on the UK housing market. That aspect of the debate is missing on many threads related to falling prices or stagnant transaction levels though. I try to keep up with current news and if I have a little knowledge that I can (politefully) add to those discussions, then I'll post them.
You'd miss us if we left though, really. Any thread where HPCers don't post struggle to get more than 20 comments at best. When we turn up, it's a right old party.
Pee Bee in particular gets to put the caps lock key on and he's in his element...
Hmmm... sorry I seem to be hogging the show, however am I the only one that has noticed that certain 'stories' (okay... adverts...) do not have a Comments facility?
SURELY the companies want to know what people's thoughts are - even if they don't ring up/subscribe/whatever?
ANY feedback is positive...
Fun Boy Agent: You know from past discussions that I don't 'get' much of your humour.
Those two posts alone make me want your DVD!
You are the recipient of today's 'Coffee down PeeBee's nose' award. Jonnie has a worthy challenger.
BTW - are you going to pay up for the replacement keyboard? ;o)
Induster Observer: Thanks for the backing! Isn't it worrying, though, that you and I seem to be agreeing a lot lately? Either you and I are therefore the same person (that makes three of us with wardy...); or one of us has had an 'episode'! ;o)
Don't worry - you aren't as confused as you think you might be (or might not... thought I'd throw that one in to confuse you!) . I am not an Estate Agent - left the fold in 2007 after being part of it for near 16 years. I AM, however, still employed in the property industry. I continue to stick my nose into all aspects of the industry (as you already can see... ;o) ), however, my involvement does not meet the definition of 'Estate Agent' as per the Act. I do know, however, that I didn't mention anywhere below that I WAS currently an active EA - so maybe your confusion button has been pressed??
That aside - it's nice to see you back posting. You've been quiet for a while and that means I get all the flak!
Rant,
Just for you:
Try sitting in your car, parked on a busy, fast road and pointing a hair dryer at passing cars, count how many you can get to slow down.
Entertain yourself mate. Gotta be better than reading an EA website for you... surely?
And you don't have time to kill?
A few suggestions for HPC'ers who come on this EA site to entertain themselves by talking to Agents about their views on house prices. You are bored, we can tell... so try these ideas.
Jam miniature marshmallows up your nose and sneeze them out. See how many you can do at a time.
Use your MasterCard to pay your Visa and vice-versa.
Pop some popcorn without putting the lid on.
When someone says "have a nice day", tell them you have other plans.
Make a list of things to do that you have already done.
Fill out your tax form using Roman Numerals.
Leaf through "National Geographic" and draw underwear on the natives.
Tattoo "Out to Lunch" on your forehead.
Go shopping. Buy everything. Sweat in it. Return it the next day.
Pay your electric bill in pennies.
Drive everywhere in reverse.
Polish your car with earwax.
Read the dictionary upside down and look for secret messages.
Start a nasty rumor and see if you recognise it when it comes back to you.
Braid the hairs in each nostril.
Write a short story using alphabet soup.
Stare at people through the tines of a fork and pretend they're in jail.
Make up a language and ask people for directions in it.
Unhappy Chappy: If we continue to split these hairs people will get very bored, very quickly.
Lets agree that people need SOMEBODY, SOMETIMES.
Okay? ;o)
You may not go back far enough on this site to know that I have said often that an Estate Agent is as much therapist/counsellor/confidant(e) as anything. They have to manage the expectations of two opposing camps and bring potentially explosive situations under control and leave all sides smiling at the end.
They don't get paid enough. Trust me.
sorry that end should of course have read "barrister tenant".
I've just twigged it with your activity too peebee - of course you sold houses years ago - so did most currently trading estate agents!!!
Peebee talking a lot of sense as usual (if this is the real peebee and not a clone or his twin wardy!!)
Peebee I am a bit concerned though as a few posts below you said you are still an active EA (if there is such a thing at the moment!) - but I'm sure I've seen you say elsewhere that you "sold houses years ago".
Maybe I'm just as confused as confused and confused? and I lost the will to live trying to follow that thread. Time for a password as well as a name and email address for postings methinks (have suggested same to Rosalind as cloning just ruins discussions).
Back to the plot.
Peebee is absolutely right in his comments about the emotions involved in selling (and buying too) and I can 110% confirm the same happens in lettings. I've had Judges as Landlords and Tenants and I know they live on another planet in Court sometimes but they live on it too sometimes when outside it.
In fact the worst dispute I ever handles was with a Judge Landlord and a barrister solicitor. Imagine that scenario given how Judges hate barristers!!
Anyway anyone expecting rationality when dealing especially with a vendor is also on another planet.
Morning Peebee -
Hmnnnnn the plot does thicken you are almost contradicting yourself.
"You see, people don't NEED me. The minute I believe that I am important, then I have lost whatever it is that I can bring to the party."
"however when it comes to an emotional lifestyle-changing decision they fall apart at the seams and need the help, guidance and reassurance of someone like little old PeeBee"
I never said they need me specifically, I said they need people like me....and hey the emotional and irrational do sometimes need help....consider me a psychiatrist :0)
If it is an art to you then an art it shall be....i guess artists dont like art critics anless there review is favourable!
@ PeeBee
a more than fair analysis i would say
Unhappy Chappy: "Indeed thats why they need people like us .;0) "
You thicken the plot, mon ami...
You see, people don't NEED me. The minute I believe that I am important, then I have lost whatever it is that I can bring to the party.
Pray tell, though, why they would need YOU in their time of frustration and anxiety whilst they ride the emotional tsunami that is the selling process??
Speaking of which, it is nice to note that you no longer dispute my previous statement that selling houses is an art... ;o)
Peebee - Sorry i could not resist it, and the only typo was missing a hypen :)
I was not calling them uneducated at all i clearly stated in "in the art of selling homes".
My findings on vendors are much like yours when you state "however when it comes to an emotional lifestyle-changing decision they fall apart at the seams and need the help, guidance" and "people make decisions with their hearts and as such the heart is irrational."
Indeed thats why they need people like us .;0)
Unhappy Chappy: "Yes from those comments these vendors are irrational, emotional and uneducated in the art of selling houses.
Why do estate agents agree to work for with these people ....is it because these same people have no idea how to negotiate fees and contracts with the agents."
There you go again - every slightest chink you perceive, you poke that stick of yours in to see how wide you can possibly make it!! ;o)
Simples, mate. firstly, for the GREAT MAJORITY of vendors (and buyers...), they ARE irrational and emotional. And that is no fault of theirs; no weakness; when it comes to the roof over ones' head, people make decisions with their hearts and as such the heart is irrational. The heart overrides the head when it comes to happiness, aspiration... the list is endless of why people decide to sell and buy homes. We've had this conversation before about professional sellers and professional buyers - and the rank amateurs that form the greater (and far better...) proportion of the market.
I certainly wouldn't call these people "uneducated", however! Many I have done business with have more letters AFTER their names than I have IN mine (and most of my address to boot...) however when it comes to an emotional lifestyle-changing decision they fall apart at the seams and need the help, guidance and reassurance of someone like little old PeeBee who is less emotionally attached to their pride and joy and who has experience of dealing with similar (but NEVER identical...) situations.
Interesting that you use the term "the art of selling houses", mon ami. I guess this is a reference back to an earlier statement of mine rather than your agreement to its validity, however... ;o)
Agents DO work WITH 'these people', as you put it, as well as FOR them. Interesting you threw both words in there - but more likely a typo I hazard a guess. Why? There are many, many possible reasons - and I guess everyone has their own.
Mine? I love it.
And I wouldn't change it for double, treble or even five times my wage - which is what I COULD earn if I left the industry.
"Doh!.......as bald as homer himself."
So, then... the evidence is presented:
* wardy and I are both slapheads (however I seem to have more than him - JUST...)
* wardy and I are both big b*ggers (at least he is if I have sussed him correctly...)
* wardy and I both claim to knowing something slightly more than b*gger all about selling and buying property (although in fairness my claim cannot be substantiated...)
* wardy and I very rarely disagree (note he didn't complain about me outing him as a suvvern softie... ;o) )
* wardy and I have both been 'cloned' by what appears to be the same t0$$3r
well - that just proves it:
Guilty as charged - WE'RE TWINS!!
Peebee - Yes from those comments these vendors are irrational, emotional and uneducated in the art of selling houses.
Why do estate agents agree to work for with these people ....is it because these same people have no idea how to negotiate fees and contracts with the agents.
rant - fascinating indeed. I've been watching these for a while.
Here's a few choice quotes...
"i have had my house on the market for six months but all that my estate agent keep trying to do is get me reduced it more and more which is leaving a bad taste in my mouth arent they supposed to help you get the best possible offer for your property let not force you to give it away i feel has if they only encouraging me to do so to benefit them. I dont know whether to stay with them or move on with another agency because i know for a fact they have under valved my house and i dont know why.."
"85k is well under what it's worth but i'm wondering if , when folk look on rightmove they type in their price search and my house just isn't coming up? I just don't understand. It seems the more i reduce the price, the fewer viewings i'm getting! Can anyone shed light? confused.."
"Rule number one you must be in control of your own main asset not the local estate agent."
" "your house is only worth as much as someone is prepared to pay" ........what a load of rubbish,its worth what you paid... i certainly wont sell for less id rather keep it than GIVE IT AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "
See, rant - there's always something there if you look for it! ;o) Thing is - THESE quotes are not 1 in 100. Nearer 1 in 4...
"Dont be fooled by your Agent. Get them to demonstate the facts before you agree to anything. If yo think that your agent could be the typical "Jack the lad" then what will a buyer think?"
That's hilarious (from RM link). Poor EAs either get stick from us HPCers for keeping the market inflated. They then get stick from the sellers who suspect them of working against them.
You have my sympathy (subject to terms and conditions).
Some fascinating insights into what sellers are currently thinking in the comments at this link:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/sell-my-house-fast/
Gavin: "Come on estate agents get your sellers to be realistic and increase transactions rather than pricing out people with deposits."
Okay - let's hear it from you. Just how do you suggest Agents "get" sellers to do ANYTHING?
I'm sure they'd love to know the secret!
Why is it so important to YOU to increase transaction levels? Are you a struggling conveyancer perhaps? Work in the Searches Department at your local Council maybe?
A strange call from an HPCer...
Come on estate agents get your sellers to be realistic and increase transactions rather than pricing out people with deposits.
Mr Frog: Sorry - I don't usually do intelligent engagement but I will try my best as you have asked nicely.
Firstly, I do not have a prognosis. The one thing that I have learned in my 33 years in property is that as soon as you think you know where the goalposts are, someone comes and moves them into another field.
Do I expect reckless lending to resume anytime soon? No. No-one wants reckless lending. As far as the bubble is concerned, it will always be pulsating - a bit like a frog's vocal sac don't you think? In:out; up:down - you are NEVER at the top or the bottom - just riding the curve.
Will prices fall? Maybe. They do sometimes - some places worse than others.
Does it bother me personally? Yes. The further the better, as it would benefit me in many ways for myself and for my family (ground well-trodden on this site and not worth going over again...).
BUT that doesn't mean that I have to wish for it - or to do my utmost to make it happen.
Am I an ex-EA Landlord. Nope - wrong bloke I'm afraid. I AM, for my sins, an ex-EA (1992 - 2007...) - but I own - sorry, NEARLY own - only one property.
Like MOST people involved in the property industry, however, my role is to do the best I can for the property owner - NOT to roll over for the buyers who want it free or cheaper. Remember, Agents and the likes are PAID by the vendors; work on their instructions - so there is always going to be conflict.
So please don't expect the great majority of property people to agree with you - or get too shirty when the response is not favourable. We are at opposite ends of the rope. That being said, I (and the great majority) respect the fact that we are all entitled to our own thoughts, opinions and wishes.
And when we can air them amicably, all the better. I just despair that there is little hope of a middle ground.
sibley
fwiw
my shareclub are estimating a 30-50% fall in actual terms over 20 years,however,after that we expect another huge rally...perhaps 4-6 fold increases over 10 years
we cite
1/gold peaked $800 in 1980 fell for 19 years to just over $200 followed by you know what
2/oil peaked around $34 in 1980(not the $100 inflation adjusted price cited out of context)...fell for 19 year to $9(intraday) in 1999 followed by you know what
3/ houseprices in japan are still 40% lower in actual terms than 1991 up from 70% down...
we are buying in japan and parts of the US and just got one in ireland 81% less than 2007 peak!NOT buying in UK
My little froggy hat off to you Mr PeeBee for putting a lot of effort into that post, I hope you did not spend too long googling on my account.
For your interest the 20% figure was from rightmove, but for my postcode in North London. But I concede 40% would have made my case better.
Since you seem willing to engage intelligently I wondered if you feel able to share your prognosis for the property market over the next few years, do you think reckless lending will resume any moment and the bubble is about to start inflating again. In any event your reasoning would be interesting. Am I right in thinking you are a ex-EA landlord?
"At 20% off (incidentally at which point asking prices will equal current selling prices) no one will make a killing, but prices will be a step closer to reality and a step closer to getting the property market functional again. "
Mr Frog - perhaps you would care to share with us where the 20% equates to the differential between asking and sale comes from? You see, according to Rightmove it is 41% - and all our HPCers jump on THAT statistic regularly.
I would suggest your estimate is a mere drop in the ocean compared...
NOW - if I may refer back to your earlier post this morning - "Firstly, volumes are about a 3rd of historic levels, and by historic levels I am looking at 35 years of data with an extremely low variance."
By 'historic levels' I will refer to the 2011 Edition of UK Housing Review (Wilcox & Pawson) - which gives the transaction numbers from 1980 - 2010. This shows that in this period, there have been an average of 1464000 transactions per year. The 'high' of this period was 1988, with 2148000; the 'low' is 935000, in 2009.
SO - the "extremely low variance" you refer to is approximately 50% up or down on the average.
You seem to read what you want to read; then to write what you want others to believe.
It doesn't work that way, I'm afraid.
ASibley
My dear prospective borrower!!!
I am long enough in the tooth to have seen this now three times - once in the late 70's and the late 1988 crash when I was brilliant enough to buy a £110K property in early July to see it 'worth' £90K in September - now that was a correction!!
But the problem this time round is that it is completely different. The last two were simply house price corrections and problems caused through borrowers stretching themselves maybe to x4 income (you have to believe it!!) or a bit more joint, only for interest rates to rise and make their mortgage unaffordable.
The big differences this time are:-
1. It is mainly outside influenced though I hate the
global excuse all politicians trot out.
2. There is no money being lent, not in any meaningful
numbers. Last time long as you had the job and
could afford the loan you could still borrow. So the
market never actually seized up as it has this time.
3. The need for absurd deposits when borrowers could
clearly afford to borrow more was never imposed.
Add in the general economic uncertainty and above all employment situation and you can see why banks are just not lending - even on as cast iron solid a risk as you could wish to find as a lender.
David, 30-50%, is that in real or nominal terms?
By the way, there are hints abound that BoE may reduce BR to 0.25% and £50 billion more QE.
Let the inflation rip.
====================================
you're paying for your landlords retirement
====================================
with the possibilty prices will be 30-50% less in twenty years time...there's only one place anyone with a buy to let portfolio is retiring to
the market will hit buy to let 3 ways
1/falling prices
2/rising interest rates
3/huge reduction of renters,who become able to afford to buy
correct frog, 20% would make buyers a killing in this area if it was to drop overnight and incidentally investors would swallow that up in a matter of days. Frog, you wouldn’t get a look in.
Btw, there you go with your assumptions again. 'Presumably he thinks all of a sudden the insane lending taps are about to be turned on' and 'some ‘stories’ from Wardy about how he is taking home £12k a month'
Bordering on the obsessed a little, don’t you think? Please don’t profess to know my thoughts on everything frog. You haven’t got the slightest clue.
Listen Froggie, just because your income is sinking and you are not able to take advantage of a low interest rate mortgage, don't be too sad, your paying for your landlords retirement.
Wardy’s last post sums him up really. He believes that property is already cheap and a 20% price drop would ‘make people a killing’. Presumably he thinks all of a sudden the insane lending taps are about to be turned on again and property will enter a second bubble before the last has even deflated.
The truth is disposable incomes are sinking rapidly and only artificially low interest rates are holding back the dam from bursting. But these rates cannot hold for long without leading to a Japanese style depression for many years, which will erode disposable incomes yet further and erode property prices yet further.
At 20% off (incidentally at which point asking prices will equal current selling prices) no one will make a killing, but prices will be a step closer to reality and a step closer to getting the property market functional again.
Poor Little Frog, he also has sleepless nights waiting for his price crash.
You and Brit1234 swap telephone numbers, you can then vent your frustrations together that you can't afford to buy and maybe even set up your own agency Brit & Frog Properties, as you know so much about estate agency.
And so the truth will out. You want house prices down so YOU can make a profit. I thought you was on a crusade for a moment but now it appears you simply cant think of another way to make money.
Shame on you.
Right then EA's. 20% off all your stock so Frog can make a killing.
Ah , but actually I am entirely relaxed. I know that prices will be forced down sooner or later, and since it costs no more to rent than it would to pay the interest on a mortgage (even at these low interest rates) I am not losing out.
I admit it would be nice for everything to play out sooner rather than later. But the longer the debt bubble remains un-burst the more I can profit from the eventual collapse.
Frog,
Sitting at your desk, rocking backwards and forwards with gritted teeth and a clenched fist because those bastard EA's are keeping house prices up.? Jeeze, chill out man.
Dont panic I'm not in the habit of telling people on the internet what I earn, besides it may tip you over the edge.
@Anon, 09:23:03
Of course it is. You don't understand it.
estate agents cannot grasp what is about to happen to them because this unsustainable credit bubble induced boom has just gone on and on.
many agents have crazy overdraft,personal buy to let portfolios
Within 3-6 months someone looking good on paper can be insolvent and bankrupt very easily.
its gonna happen and its gonna be nasty
IO, how do the current credit restrictions compare with the early 90s during the house price, ahem, correction?
To be honest, i'm very sanguine about the situation. Logically, something will eventually give. Merrvyn King has made it clear that he's against strong wage inflation and the banks are too busy recapitalising (as per Basel agreement) to indulge in another debt binge. Which leaves one obvious outcome.
@ The Frog
Excellent post !
The Frog: Your last post is boring, Yawn.
I appreciate that Ray is an EA/LL and will deliberately misunderstand. But his posts are interesting and really speaks to the mindset of these people.
He cannot understand the pricing mechanism and repeatedly makes absurd statements in the mistaken belief that because he can make a statement which is absurd it proves that that everyone else is as well. I do not know if such an unsophisticated mindset is the man’s full range of mental engagement, or his own vested interest is blinding him to the simply reality but either way his obtuseness just shows that these people really will have to go bust before they learn.
And in answer to his point (which he will either deliberately misunderstand or will simply be incapable of understanding) BMW’s are not over priced. We know this not because he has unfulfilled demand, there will always be unfulfilled demand in luxury goods, but because where the price is set as such that sufficient numbers of people do indeed complete transactions to buy BMW’s. The level of transactions is enough to make BMW as a company profitable.
Compare that to the EA business. There is unfulfilled demand, as is common in pretty much all goods, yet the number transactions completing is worrying on a number of levels. Firstly, volumes are about a 3rd of historic levels, and by historic levels I am looking at 35 years of data with an extremely low variance. Secondly, and more concern to EAs, is that the current number of transactions is not enough to mean that all EAs can be profitable. While I don’t doubt we will be regaled with some ‘stories’ from Wardy about how he is taking home £12k a month the truth is that at current levels many EAs need to go bust so that the number of transactions can support the remainder, and even then many will find survival marginal.
It is sad that so many EAs are so blinded, so incapable of understanding the very basics of how price determines the interaction between demand and supply that they will cost themselves their own job. This site should be filled with EAs discussing how best to manage vendors expectations, how to get prices pushed firmly down so they can achieve sales. Instead it has a handful of wise heads trying to save EAs from themselves, and a bunch of EAs who hate them for doing so and get very excited amongst themselves about how to insult them. Hoping that if they simply assert enough times that ruinous loose credit will resume any second then the bubble can begin re-inflating.
Poor Little Brit1234, still waiting for the House Price crash.
You just keep paying someone elses mortgage, theres a good boy.
@ Unhappy Chappy
Jeez...it's 00 : 40...I just can't sleep like this. I must admit. I do. Sometimes I buy oranges and even melons too.
I do apologize for the BMW British housing stock parallel.
Good night.
Just a little anecdote - viewed a nice 5 bed detached in good area a few months ago. Vendor paid 425 k in 2003. At the time could only go to 380k as I hadn't sold my house, but decided to keep an eye on it to see what it sold for. Sold recently for 400k.
http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?f=pd&q=6+heneage+drive&n=100
Tell me prices can't come down?
RE "suggesting price adjustments will have to be in order."
No kidding.
There are so many of us buyers just waiting for a price drop to buy, complete with deposits.
We don't want mansions just starter homes. We are priced out despite good wages.
Come on estate agents, we want some where to live and start families, you want transactions to increase.
Convince your sellers to get realistic.
Ray - Do you ever buy apples when you go to buy pears?
BMW's are overpriced. I do not care what they cost to make or what 'experts' say, they should come down by at least 40% so that I can have one! ;-)
The last dozen or so posts have strayed into my old hunting ground - lending money on mortgage approvals. As anyone who has taken the slightest interest in my previous life (and why should you?!!!) I am now after 20 years an alleged expert on legal issues relating to lettings and management.
Previously I worked for Nationwide for almost 25 years and had a mortgage mandate of £300K in 1992 so probably £1M now.
So Sibley what a shame you were born about 20 years too late or I could have approved your mortgage. And possibly would have done though the 10% deposit would have made it marginal even in the happy, far off 100% LTV days.
Looks like lenders are doing the same as airlines and train companies (plus hotels) and advertising great deals when they have only one loan available and when that one has gone that's it. But Sibley's story is interesting anyway because it says a huge amount about what is going on (EXTREMELY selective lending) and what is not (NOT ENOUGH BEING LENT TO STIMULATE A STRUGGLING MARKET).
I have guessed before and will guess again that it will take at least 5 years and probably an awful lot longer for the market to recover simply because there is worse to come and as has been said banks do not like to lend in static never mind falling markets for any commodity. And to a bank a house (home) is just a commodity. To verify this speak to anyone who has had a credit or loan problem this past two years - even a relatively minor one - and see how they act now when you can't pay to what I used to do to help people 20+ years ago.
I didn't start off by charging them £40 for a l;etter telling them they were in arrears for example.
20 years ago I'd have sat down with Sibley and his missus, listened to his story. Realising with some comfort that HO probably couldn't sack me anyway unless I was caught bonking the chief cashier across the counter (and even then it might have depended what sex the chief cashier was!!) I would have made a personal judgement based on years of training and experience, and taken a flyer on him and lent him and Mrs Sibley the money.
Now of course despite the efforts of his good local IFA once the paperwork is passed on he has no chance to plead his own case. The old joke "how do I stand for a mortgage - you don't you grovel" had more than a grain of truth in it. More than once I approved a loan to a couple who had almost begged me to help, and possibly their parents pleaded with me to as well (specially if they were still nesting and the parents wanted them out!!)
They didn't need to beg of course, just explain to me what they wanted and how they would repay it. And what they would do if they ran into difficulties. But without the chance to sit in front of someone and let them make a personal judgement on your character as well as what it says on paper about you, what chance have younsters especially got these days?
Sad world when personal lending disappeared and not just on housing but personal loans too.
But then nostalgia ain't what it used to be (except to me and Peebee - don't worry mate I can spot a ringer!!)
@ wardy
survey NOT servey
That's it Wardy, the lender (Northern Crock) either wasn't happy with the income multiple or the LTV - nothing to do with the prop at all.
As HPC's resident IFA says, underwriters are a law unto themselves.
Still, as you say, they saved me a few hundred quid on a survey.
That's it Wardy, the lender (Northern Crock) either wasn't happy with the income multiple or the LTV - nothing to do with the prop at all.
As HPC's resident IFA says, underwriters are a law unto themselves.
Still, as you say, they saved me a few hundred quid on a survey.
sounds like one of the banks that are doing the underwritting before instucting servey then. Seems to be happening more and more. Not a bad thing in a way as it safe guards your servey money. I cant see how the property itself affected the outcome of your application pre servey though?
No probs Wardy, pre-survey.
Sibleys,
Do you mind me asking at which stage the mortgage was declined?
AIP, Pre servey, Post servey or offer?
Thanks for the input Richard, though I don't need an EA to save my marriage. Besides, not quite a catchy a title as 'Last night a DJ saved my life'.
I actually have a very experienced IFA working for me. The problem isn't lack of mortgage products, it's that banks patently don't want to lend on a depreciating asset.
That's fine though, there'll still be the three Ds setting the bottom of the market for me so i'll just be patient...
In the meantime, if you do find a two bed house in the Dagenham area for around 120k do let me know and you'll have another punter (I say 120k as I imagine that's the amount the banks may be prepared to lend on).
Sibley- There’s so much ranting, rubbish posted about EA on here , but there are of course poor agents but many more good.
Can I suggest to save your marriage you need the latter, there will be a mortgage for you but it needs experience and perhaps a bit of quality to find it and hey presto you will buy it. Ask for help.
Can all silly HPC use the right hand as god intended you to and not use both to type and post. Ta!
Viewed that one three weeks ago PeeBee :p
Too far from the station. That was another probate, not bad interior but the 20 minute walk to the station put us off (plus next year the lad'll be going to nursery so sod that for a game of soldiers).
I guess the point is asking prices are going to need to come down by a decent clip if the typical FTB is going to get a mortgage approved. Well, either that or massive pay-rises or freer credit (and I don't see those happening any time soon).
@ PeeBee
Doh!.......as bald as homer himself.
Sibley's... - what about the one on Peartree?
Maybe EAT couls arrange for Phil Spencer or Henry Pryor to negotiate a deal for you, matey?
And to whoever thinks that wardy & I are one person - sorry - only when we are being cloned, methinks!
Dis-similarities: He's a suvvern softie; I'm a thick Northerner. He's an Estate Agent; I'm not.
Oh - and he probably also has hair... just to kill off ANY chance of our being one and the same... :o(
"...but many of of who deal with higher value financial transactions and still have high volumes are at our desks for 7am when the RNS news comes out.
You can google that if you like."
Saved you the bother, wardy _ I googled it for you.
This gripper waits for the Religion News Service before kicking off for the day.
Here's his Team Pep-talk transcript:
"Okay guys - after me... 'Dear Lord, PURLEEEASE see fit for us to sell something today...amen' "
Hey - if it works for you "higher value financial transaction" to$$ers then I ain't gonna knock it... ;o)
Here's a little anecdote to substantiate the article.
Actually had an offer accepted on a probate prop the other week. (Despite being a crashaholic, my wife still wants to buy somewhere so long as she sticks the maximum £140k that i'd be prepared to go to).
So, IFA reckons he can get me a 90% LTV @ 4.5% which would work out 70 quid per month less than my current rent and a not-too-eye-watering 4.2 x my salary (still disappointing but do-able).
Surprise, surprise, application declined despite 10% deposit and good credit rating.
Unsurprisingly i'm actually happy with this. If someone on an above-average salary can't secure a mortgage on the bottom of the terraced house market in the cheapest London borough tells me one thing.
To give you an idea, should you be ars*d, search RM for two bed houses in Dagenham with a maximum of 140k asking price. See not all HPCers demand a 4 bed semi detached....
PeeBee = wardy ? ;) Just a thought...
wardy: Looks like we both made it then, bud!
My evil twin struck at post #13. You can tell it's not me, though.
Far too sensible... and seems to know something about cars too.
Are BMW German? I never knew that.
Wonders never cease...
Such a pity that someone with all this raft of knowledge to share lets themselves down by clearly not having the imagination to think up their own unique username though, innit? ;o)
Im delighted I have my own phantom poster. See PeeBee, Its not just you that has people pretending to be you.
You have never truly made it on this site unless you get some berk posting under your name.
"There is NO downward pressure on prices."
So they're going down of their own volition, then?
"Therefore prices are relatively static."
Relative to what? All the reports show them going down.
"I completely understand why you want prices to come down, but in a great part of the UK they won't."
Your understanding is as always a boon.
"It's not going to happen."
The figures confirm that it is already
"So please, PLEASE, stop going on about it."
Grow a thicker skin
"You are perfectly entitled to your beliefs but constantly haranguing us poor estate agents who are suffering because of the lack of volume."
That'll be because people are disinclined to sell when they might take a loss, you said so yourself. In a "relatively static" market taking a loss is a lot less likely than in a declining one, so where's the volume gone?
"If I want to risk my money marketing a property that might not sell, then that's up to me. "
Like these people?
http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/news_features/More-agents-will-close-Winkworth-boss-warns
@AOP
"going direct to the seller, cutting out the estate agent completely....."
That's an excellent idea ! How would that work in practice?
I assume one would need a lawyer to check title deeds and draw up the contracts.
The only problem is to find out the seller is. Any hints on that?
Thx
Nothing ever changes on this site, does it?
The Frog - The internet does powerful things. It now allows you to search for properties all over the World, going direct to the seller, cutting out the estate agent completely..... perhaps you should explore these avenues, rather than moan like a child on an online forum, wasting everyone's time. If agents are to blame for pricing, then your an idiot not to continue your home search through these other routes.
The internet also allows muppets to post in secret, giving them the power they don't have within their actual existance to type a load of absuive tripe - that's you, Kermit.
AC - I agree with some but not all of your post
I think you mean the English system - and just because it is an old system it does not make it the best, like all systems it requires a feedback and upgrading.
Are you sure there is no downward pressure on prices.
What about lending criteria, inflation, affordability, redundancies? In many areas of Englan prices are coming down....but i agree there will be no crash unless we see significant interest rate increases and an end to lender forbearance
It seems you are doing well (good news) but you say you need more instuctions what about the 40% unsold stock you have....are you marketing billys property ? :0)
Ray Evans, If you had actually bought a BMW in 2007 you would currently be trying to sell it second hand for what you paid plus £15,000.
Then looking around with a ‘what’s going on’ look on your face when you can’t sell it.
The analogy with BMW is deeply flawed because BMW are a very professional business that understand that you have to price correctly to sell, pricing correctly means you actually make a optimal number of sales given your input costs to maximise profits.
By contrast a worrying number of EAs/Landlords like yourself think that a tiny handful of transactions at a high price are preferable to normal 35 year average levels of transactions at a greatly reduced price. This is why in ten years time BMW will still be in business, and most EA’s, especially the obtuse as hell EA/LL will be bust and gone.
Good riddance to them and the sooner they are not perverting the market so the decent agents can get the market moving the better.
@ AC
"The British way of selling property is one of the oldest property markets in the world.
It works, but like all things isn't perfect."
The Botswanian way of selling property is one of the oldest markets in the World too, with its ancient traditions and voodooism. \but it's not perfect either.
@Ray Evans
"Hometrack’s new report predicts an acceleration in price drops as we head towards the end of the year."
We can expect the generally old, poorly structured housing stock of Great Britain to fall in value at an even greater speed.
The price of brand new, quality cars such as German BMW is expected to remain at the same level or even rise.
anon,
Thank you for confirming that you are indeed a twat.
Wardy, I appreciate you may come sauntering into the office after 9 with a bacon roll, but many of of who deal with higher value financial transactions and still have high volumes are at our desks for 7am when the RNS news comes out.
You can google that if you like.
Billy - you're a genius, so agents need to tell buyers the positive aspects of a property they are selling, thanks for that, I'm going to take it on board and wait for the money to come rolling in. In the meantime Billy go buy yourself a mini and rent an office in your town, put a sign up saying 'Billy's estate agents' and you'll earn millions.
Fellow estate agents - its all over - with billys helpful advice, if we all adopt it, the market is sorted and back on track, happy days are here again...
Is there any way we can get unhelpful Troll remarks removed?
I am getting very bored of reading comments from members of the general public who are all desperate to lay the blame on estate agents.
The British way of selling property is one of the oldest property markets in the world.
It works, but like all things isn't perfect.
Property prices are driven by the market, not by people "wishing" for it.
At this moment, because of low interest rates, vendors do not HAVE to sell at a loss, unlike the early 90's.
There is NO downward pressure on prices.
Therefore prices are relatively static.
I completely understand why you want prices to come down, but in a great part of the UK they won't.
It's not going to happen.
So please, PLEASE, stop going on about it.
You are perfectly entitled to your beliefs but constantly haranguing us poor estate agents who are suffering because of the lack of volume.
If an owner does not want to take "the market price" and do not have to sell then that is entirely their choice.
If I want to risk my money marketing a property that might not sell, then that's up to me.
I have sold over 60% of all the properties I have taken on so far this year - the same percentage as in 2007.
I have only had 1 (yes ONE) downvaluation all year.
The only problem I have is a lack of instructions.
"...suggesting price adjustments will have to be in order."
Hmm, that sounds eerily familiar. Oh that's right, that's what me and Rant have been banging-on about for ages.
@Ray Evans
What do you reckon BMW would do if sales fell by a half or two thirds? Cut prices or moan that banks should lend more money for BMW purchases?
Billy: on one of the other threads you are asking the EAT moderators to unsubscribe you from receiving emails, but your still quite happy trolling this site.
Its pretty clear you know nothing about Estate Agency.
All BMW's must come down in price so that I can afford one!
@Billy.
You show your ignorance of estate agency..
Billy do you have a property for sale that has been on the market for some time? or is this just an opinion you have that EA's do not do what they say on the tin?
What a suprise, an estate agent suggesting that price should come down?
Perhaps if they actually tried selling the propertiues, highlighting the features and benefits, rather than just showing people round, they might have some more success.
Boys, its time you actually earnt your money!!
Or maybe,
'internet troll has nothing better to type @ 8:56 on a monday morning'
“ultimately kick-start a new phase of re-pricing across the market”.
Should read: ultimately kick onto the dole queue all those agents who cannot accept prices must come down.