Maths has never been EAT’s strong point, although we are often puzzled as to why the national media has failed to pick up on the yawning £70,000 discrepancy between the Government’s two ‘official’ house price indices – the Office for National Statistics and the Land Registry.
However, our story on August 15 stirred the brainboxes behind the Acadametrics house price survey to respond.
We said (and we’ll stick by it) that such a discrepancy made it hard to give credibility to either set of figures. After all, they can’t both be right.
Furthermore, we’re perplexed by the apparent desire of the Government to make the ONS’s much higher priced model the lead official survey.
What will that do to historical price comparisons when so many of us were nurtured in the belief that the Land Registry survey was the one and only ‘real deal’?
We’re already seeing confusion – the claim that house prices have accelerated way ahead of earnings growth garnered headlines, but was based on prices far higher than the Land Registry’s.
Anyway, Acadametrics have tried to explain the discrepancy with quite the most cerebral explanation that has yet appeared on EAT. So, get a strong coffee and read today's blog.
Frankly, EAT doesn’t understand a word of it, but it’s worth pointing out that the Acadametrics house price surveys, backed by LSL, are also very much on the high side.
Meanwhile, if any reader can translate it into plain English, we’d be delighted.
‘Hedonic regression’ anyone?
We dare you to try it on Mrs Jones from Number 42 when she comes in to ask how her house sale is progressing.
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Comments
Hes not Brian I am. What did the Romans ever do for us anyway?
Just like Japan.
It reminds me of the old crime figure arguments. The parties kept changing sources of various crime stats to pick the ones which best sorted them.
Stick with one and it has to be Land Registry as it is the oldest by far and most trusted.
One of the resident whingers has bashed the keyboard again!
Brian is probably right; a civil servant of some description.
"it’s worth pointing out that the Acadametrics house price surveys, backed by LSL, are also very much on the high side."
Also worth pointing out who LSL's clients are, as displayed on their website:
Abbey, Barclays, Northern Rock, Nationwide, Cheltenham & Gloucester, Yorkshire Building Society and more
No pressure there then to report high house prices...
The Land Registry figures are the only 'real deal'. They may be slightly dated but are based on actual facts. It is not necessary to have "daily' statistics" about "house prices" from various sources (how stupid is that!). They just cause confusion for everyone and is counter productive to the market..