House prices continue to wane as transaction volumes crumble and fewer people put their homes up for sale, the RICS has reported.
The RICS says that newly agreed sales edged down in September and that house prices fell everywhere apart from London.
New instructions fell back, with agents reporting that fragile consumer confidence and continuing fears over the economy are causing many to think twice before putting their properties up for sale.
The average number of unsold properties per estate agency branch stood at 68.9.
RICS housing spokesperson Michael Newey said: “Falling supply of fresh stock is indicative of general fears overhanging the economy, with many potential sellers preferring to stay put for now. As a result, the UK housing market remains pretty flat with activity levels generally subdued.
“Although it is hard to see what will give the market a lift in the near term, the announcement of a further raft of quantitative easing from the Bank of England will help to at least keep mortgage rates down. This, if nothing else, should ease the pressure on existing home owners and limit the risk of a material pick-up in repossessions.”
Christopher Shalice, of Hix & Son in Holbeach, Lincolnshire, said: “A number of vendors now seem to realise that the market is difficult and that competitive pricing is important.
“A number of agents seem, however, to be quoting ridiculous prices to obtain instructions.”
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Comments
Thanks rantnrave - it was a good reply..
Well - Hey Ho and Upwards to tomorrow!
I'm off for a pint.
Cheers!
Rant thanks for a well reasoned and presented post a welcome break from the name calling... I agree that government intervention has prevented a reduction in asset values and this will continue. I also believe low affordabillty will prevent house price inflation. The result being stagnation which does not help anybody
Apologies to BeeOhh of whatever you are called - was meant for rent boy agent
bob dobalina: "@ Peebee, is that true about kebabs?"
Dunno. Suggest you ask the person who wrote it.
Looks like the pressure is getting to you...
How much would an estate agent make working in (non prime) London?
I hear £20K basic with £55K OTE is the norm? Outside of the M25 I hear it drops to £10K basic and £35k OTE?
Cheers in advance.
@ Peebee, is that true about kebabs? thats very worrying. I have googled it and i cant find any other info about it. you may well have a scoop there.
I take that on board Ray. What concerns me though is either the denial or the ignorance of the mess that this country is in that is still out there.
Here on EAT, the HPC site is often presented (by those I assume have never actually visited it) as being about a bunch of binge-drinking benefit scroungers complaining that houses cost too much.
It actually involves some of the most rigorous discussion of the state of the economy than anywhere else you'll find on the web (a fact that has been acknowledged by The Times amongst others). Yes, their theories have major holes in them, but the basis of it is the best explanation of what's happened that I've come across. The lack of a spring bounce in the property market this year was widely predicted over there, as is the lack of an autumn one now or even a pick up next spring.
Why the economic recovery wont involve a return to double digit % growth in house prices each year is not something most of the British public want to be told. But they need to be.
Where the HPC site has been significantly wrong is in underestimating the willingness of The Powers That Be to sacrifice economic growth and the country's moral fabric just to limit falls in house prices.
@Brit1234
Sentiment? If you are the owner or manager you should be putting some 'oooomph' into staff - find something positive to increase morale! If people like yourself and 'rant' keep on with the negativity matters will become self fullfilling and you will sink!
I am aware that things are very difficult but that is when one starts doing their job - at least get on with it with a smile!
You will probably not agree any similarity but people survived the three downturns of the last 30 odd years.
Keep bu****ing on!
I think house prices will fall in real terms in the long term. Yes it is true that at the moment demand exceeds supply however that is relatively easy (although controversial ) to sort out in the future. Everybody knows we have not built enough houses to meet the demand however this does not mean this is going to be the status quo forever. Changes in planning law, the release of new land for housing etc and Market forces is likely to result in an increase in supply to meet the demand. It might take a 10 or 15 years but I'm am sure Market forces will prevail.
Surely high house prices, rents etc take away the incentive to work? Throw in increasing transportation costs, and minimum wage jobs (of which there are many) are perceived to be barely worth the effort when an almost identical lifestyle can be obtained through the benefit system.
TV, like newspapers focus on negative and like the epitaph “See I told you I was ill” they will eventually get it right”.
How about a positive day when no negative stories allowed, no negative posts allowed. The old adage “If you don’t have anything good to say don’t say anything” perhaps. Just look at this blog, greatest input is always when people can be negative or are thye just the loudest?
Sentiment is really collapsing in my office now. More and more people are talking about house price falls and the economy. I would say that change happened in the last 2 where they were positive about housing and now negative.
I believe its the TV news economy stories having this effect of realisation.
Rantrave, I agree, I was just pointing out to the HPC nut brigade, that while they gloat at any negative story about the demise of agents or prices, they are missing the whole point in an attempt to sound clever or really believe they can talk prices down?
We are heading for a far bigger problem than that lot not being able to buy a home.
And yes, immigration is an issue, its adding to the melt down, don’t moan about them taking the jobs, where would certain industries be without them, for example the hotel world, fast food outlets or taxis services. These peolple work hard, do low paid jobs our spongers won't, but also have to live somewhere.
And when rents become unaffordable? Just herd young families off the cliffs?
Seriously, though, this is an issue that this country needs to address - we are heading back to a Victorian era of haves and have-nots, where social mobility is disappearing.
Skilled young people will begin to take their training elsewhere (if they're not already doing so), where their salaries will afford them the sort of accommodation they might have expected in this country ten years ago. In their place will come immigrants from lesser developed nations that are quite happy to rough it, renting unofficially in the garden sheds of London for a couple of years to save a few (devalued) quid.
A static market helps no one, even FTB.
Shortage of supply will continue to push rents up, those that can buy will, to live in or become landlords, so agree prices will in the medium term hold or in certain areas, even if they dip a bit short term, unless supply increases.
In the long term they will rise, there are just not enough homes in the right locations and in this market, developers the only ones that can solve the shortage, will just not grow their business. They have changed their business to survive on current levels and will not return to 2007 levels which were not high enough any way for the foreseeable future.
The government cannot afford to mass build left wing social housing, return of the work house perhaps, the Victorians solved it!
Interesting debate on Interest rates/inflation. I can't see interest rates going up for at least 3 years maybe a decade or more, I tend to agree with jonnie that inflation rising at 5% per annum is not going to hurt Mr indebted Essex boy too badly, maybe he will just trim down his Sky Sports package or tell his wife to go with Botox injections just twice a year. I'm sure this is a different picture in other parts of the country with high unemployment but the Market in these areas has never really taken off so how much of a bubble really exists in somewhere like Middlesbrough. So house prices will continue to bump along at 0% pa and if it looks like they may start falling we can all really on a few extra billion to be printed courtesy of Boe to keep the status quo.
Jonnie,
I've cracked it.
Things are more like they are today than they ever have been before
No Jonnie, you've misunderstood me here. I'm saying that this is not a case of either / or. If interest rates are going nowhere, that doesn't mean there's no pressure on household finances from elsewhere. I'm saying that even if interest rates remain unchanged, inflation is still having an impact, albeit a much slower one. Of course interest rate rises would get proceedings (and ultimately the recovery) going much faster than anything else.
Rant,
Okay, let’s bloody do this! Lets all make a bet on ONE key factor that bring house prices down and then we all meet here in one year and see how we are all doing; We are going to need Roz and the EAT team to stick a note in their diaries for 12th October 2012 to run the article and the bets which im sure they will do?
Im going for interest rates, that is the one for me, Rant I assume you are happy with inflation? And everyone else back what you think, and no each ways either picking loads of reasons and certainly none of this jumping on the latest bad news story because some of you cheeky HPC sods were telling us Ireland was going to kill us all a few months back now none of you talk about it now you have all ‘gone Greek’
So, one bet, one factor and let’s review in a year, and with 12 months of hindsight that would be a hell of a story, sort of a house market prediction time capsule
Jonnie
@rant
Yeah, Heinz said the price of their ketchup was staying put for the foreseeable
Were any other sauces available for comment?
Pee Bee - the property in question was one i was using as an example of a tough one to value together with daft valuations from others and daft vendor expectations. i valued it at 225,000, but said could be worth giving it a go at upto 275k (as it's fairly unique) another agent said 325 (a third said 250), i reluctantly put it on at 325k, knowing that over the months we'll chip away at the price to the right level. Although mrs vendor has just said to me 'the markets picking up' I thanked her for that information and thought about putting a deposit down on a new aston martin, but then realised she'd been viewing a house through our large chain compeTITor
*****NEWS FLASH*****
Cost of kebabs in the UK sky rocket as Greek economy collapses.
Feta cheese no longer on the menu, olives become a luxury item.
A spokesperson from 'Flora' said "we are deeply concerned", an unknown blogger named Rant said he was concerned also
"How did I get out of estate agency? Simple. I quit."
Which berk said that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?
Simply leaves the gates wide open for grippers like this one to amuse themselves, if you ask me...
How did I get out of estate agency? Simple. I quit.
It will take longer Jonnie, for sure, but the squeeze is happening. From data involved in today's (depressing) unemployment data, total earnings growth is 2.8% per annum but CPI is 4.5% and RPI 5.2%, so real wages in the UK continue to fall.
With Merv and co firing up the printing presses, inflation is very likely to rise further. Wage growth remains suppressed and so this scenario is set to continue for the immediate future.
Heating bills are definitely on the way up too - something for those empty-nesters in four bed semis to think about as well.
Mortgage rates have of course long since detached from the BoE rate too. As UK banks prepare to take a hit courtesy of gifts from their Greek friends, I am sure they'll be eyeing up today's low mortgage rates as a possible source to replace those lost funds.
Tick, tick, tick...
Rant,
You will have to help with numbers here mate but does say 5% inflation really have the same affect on an over mortgaged owner as say 5% interest rates would………….really?
Come on, we like a debate but are you suggesting that this hidden underclass is really going to be pushed into selling by the consumer price index? The ones Ive talked about will be flogging the X5 first and switching to Asda to combat rising fuel and food prices.
Jonnie
P.s – im sure this one has some legs today so ive done my best to be breif
Higher interest rates mean people can't make their mortgage payments because their disposable income is squeezed.
Inflation above the rate of salary increases squeezes people's disposable income, so they can't make mortgage payments.
What's the difference?
i personally cannott stand him but the johnny and bob dobalina’ exchange has made me LMFAO on the ‘Mortgage Borrowing Costs’ article below and I cant wait for the next instalment :0)
I recccomend you see it
the yorkshire agent - WELL DONE!! I would call a viewing on an overpriced property within a couple of weeks of instruction a result, if I were you, matey ;o) Who knows - may lead to another... and yet another chance to chip away at your vendor's stellar expectations! (do me a favour - remind me of the figures we are talking here, please...)
Did I get out of Estate Agency? The amount of time I spend on this site I wonder - either that or I am a VERY confused HPCer... ;o)
Old Estate Agents never die - they simply lose the plot!
Morning PeeBee, indeed there is news on that property and exciting news too (the property in question being one I agreed to test on the market at a high price), we've had..........................................................................................................a viewing!!! but they though it was far too expensive, we gave the feedback to the owner who went off on one saying 'well you valued it at that' etc etc, umm no actually Mrs vendor, if you recall I valued it at far less. Pee Bee how did you get out of estate agency?? wise move Sir.
Morning PeeBee, indeed there is news on that property and exciting news too (the property in question being one I agreed to test on the market at a high price), we've had..........................................................................................................a viewing!!! but they though it was far too expensive, we gave the feedback to the owner who went off on one saying 'well you valued it at that' etc etc, umm no actually Mrs vendor, if you recall I valued it at far less. Pee Bee how did you get out of estate agency?? wise move Sir.
Now im not keen on giving the old RICS survey to much in the way of time, ive said before that asking a couple of hundred old duffers what they think is not terribly reliable.
…………….but today ill give it a go as bits of what they say seem to be the case in parts of the country, i.e. – lack of property coming to the market! – So let’s look at the headline, it says that sellers are deserting the market (ill question how someone that was never in a market can desert it but ill only get annoyed at the stupidity of it all so im going to leave it)
The problem this creates, if it is of course the case etc is that this suits neither the EA’s or HPC lot as prices are not going to race down (suiting HPC’ers) and volumes are not going to go up (suiting EA’s)
So, we are all knackered then? – and as we all know the only way that there will be a substantial increase in instructions is if interest rates surge so all these people that would have been ‘distressed sellers’ in the good old days of 1991 who are sitting there with a direct debit to their mortgage firm not far of the size of the one they have to Barclaycard will have to sell / get out or be repo’d – currently they don’t need to so they wont, and you cant tell them from the rest of society in Waitrose either.
Also this isn’t just unemployed Brummies that lost their factory job it’s the lot with detached suburban houses and a 4X4 on the drive and £100k on plastic ( we know / see many of them ) that are managing on a month to month basis very well.
……………..so, HPC’ers pray for interest rate hikes and big ones too that’ll push the over committed vendors that you hate so much to the market and you can bag a bargain – as long as you can manage the monthly payments / interest rates though and hope they come before these people get them selves straight / start earning again / come out the other side of their ‘debt management’
Jonnie
@theedaaawg
"I guess I'll just wait for 5 years for prices to come down or income/savings to go up"
Probably best to wait a year or so if you can because it would seem that you cannot afford to buy at the moment - a point that some others may like to consider.
Hi yorkshire!
Any news on that property you took on a couple of weeks ago?
the daaawg: "I'm a (prospective) FTBer with 15k deposit, and income of 25k in a poor region of the country... My max budget based on 80% LTV is around 85k.)"
Erm... am I missing something here? Assuming you wish to use your entire £15k as the 20% deposit, and you take the balance (80%) as mortgage, then the maximum value of property is £75,000... isn't it?
Three questions if I may:
What kind of property is it you are WANTING to buy?
What do you actually NEED?
Why the difference between the two?
Click the back of your shoes together and say three times "I want to go gnome"
Can we have some more stories about garden gnomes please. By far the best this week.
The agents and sellers I have seen when looking at houses seem to be in a time warp. I'm a (prospective) FTBer with 15k deposit, and income of 25k in a poor region of the country.
My max budget based on 80% LTV is around 85k. They're only willing to lend 3 times income, and i don't want to use all my savings on purchase price. (save some for fees and furniture etc)
I get the feeling that the sellers who bought these properties 5 years ago probably had the same income at my age but were allowed WAY more loans to buy with ... like 140k ish.
They seem to just not get that those loans aren't available to us now, and are in denial about the affordability of the bottom rung.
I guess I'll just wait for 5 years for prices to come down or income/savings to go up.
:S
yep very few vals and listings scarce, what few we are seeing, are being stupidly over valued by large chains and corporates so they hit their listing targets, 2 examples this week both lost to the same agent, my chap valued an ex la, 3 bed semi @ £159,950, without a doubt in my mind the right figure, vendor has put on at £199,950!, the same company also put on a tatty bungalow in a tatty village at £345,000, I valued it at £250,000 max. Madness, very frustrating as these are 2 motivated if slightly naive vendors, who've been poorly advised by the local 'double glazing salesman' estate agent.
Clients of www.eurolink.co are reporting similar transaction activity except in Prime Central London where the market appears to be outperforming the market nationally.
Stock round my way (in the West Mids) is higher than at any point in the last two years and rapidly approaching 25% more than this time last year. The amount of pent-up suplly coming to the market is tangible.
According to the report, the amount of stock on surveyors books rose from 66.9 to 68.9. So, presumably buyers are dropping off in even greater numbers?
I completely agree. We are based in Exeter & the main problem we are facing at the moment is the lack of properties coming to the market. Any good instructions, we are selling quickly so the buyers are definately there. Just not the stock to tempt them with!
I'm not a RICS agent but find it hard to disagree with anything said in the article. Genuinely new stock is very hard to come by round here. It's generally overpriced tat sold by vendors who aren't in a hurry and think it's the previous agent's fault their house hasn't sold and not their over the top asking price.
As always though, there are different factors in play across the country and I'm not surprised other agents are seeing different things.
What a load on nonsense!! we're taking on houses left right and centre, its the buyers are that are few and far between.
RICS? Just how many property sales, as a percentage of the total in any given period, are completed by RICS member agents? Methinks not the majority?
I don't understand how sales volumes and prices can be crumbling when there is so much demand out there.