The latest transaction figures from HMRC prove that the UK housing market is returning to form, according to Marsh & Parsons CEO Peter Rollings.
There were 107,380 property transactions during November 2013 – the highest level since December 2007, when the market was beginning to slow down.
This is a 23.5% increase on November 2012 - and a 1.5% rise from October.
Rollings said: "The number of property transactions has now reached levels not seen since December 2007, although they are still some way off the peak of that year.
"Rather than slowing down for winter, the 2013 market is actually speeding up, with more transactions taking place in October and November than during the summer.
“The market may be warming up, but it’s not overheating. The London housing market saw a remarkable uplift in prices during 2013, and we expect a similarly strong start in 2014 to drive an annual price increase - but these won’t be as spectacular as last year. With ongoing support from Government initiatives, we expect the rate of growth to remain sustainable.”
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Comments
Really ?!!?
So... where do I start?
Actually... can't be chewed. Congratulations on condensing your latest mental aberration into such a small space.
It is comforting to know that your knowledge of hot-air ballooning surpasses that which you purport to have of the real housing market or, for that matter, the real world.
Everyone needs to be an expert in something - and you clearly have found your niche.
I'm genuinely pleased for you, and look forward to reading all your future postings on hot-air balloon forums, and not here where you simply get the wazz ripped out of you - for all the right reasons.
Allowing house price rises in the run up to the next general election WILL cause the housing market to overheat.
It's obviously happening even though buying power is generally stretched and house sales are generally subdued. Thus the idea that house price rises are an indicator of improving health in the wider economy is seriously flawed.
Here's our take:
The housing market itself tends to behave very like a hot air balloon, so let's use that as our analogy!
Injecting heat, using the propane burner: is the same as providing more bank or building society lending.
The more lending (or injected heat) that is put in, the higher the balloon will rise. Rising altitude is like rising house price levels.
The first thing to bear in mind is, there is a significant delay between the time you fire up the burner and the moment the balloon begins to rise or ascend into the sky.
The second is that deft skill is needed so as not to put too much heat (or currency) into the balloon or it will go up, too high too quickly!
The converse is, that if not enough heat is applied, the balloon (representing the housing market) will gradually descend.
Again, deft skill is needed in order to avoid a continual and irreversible descent, leading to a collision with the ground - or a house price crash! :-(
For the housing market to attract buyers with confidence to commit, a balloon (or housing market) that is controllable and safe and can cope with the types of weather (or employment prospects) experienced in our part of the world would be needed. In this scenario flyers (or buyers) would be unlikely to wish to embark on a voyage without sufficient confidence.
Importantly, in order to ensure a successful balloon voyage, people need a well-trained and experienced pilot to control the propane burner or amount of mortgage lending going in. The pilot in this analogy is represented by the B.o.E.'s divested powers which have been granted to them by our elected government.
The quantity of lending clearly needs to be 'measured' as well as being increased at precisely the correct time if those in the housing market are to see the advantages in embarking on house ownership, sufficient to attract them in. It's exactly similar to those wising to experience a lasting and pleasable balloon voyage. They need to have sufficient confidence in the pilot, a.k.a. the government (and the balloon of course) to know there won't be excessive highs or dangerous lows in altitude whilst they, the house-owning public are on board!
So what are the controls of the housing market and how should they best be operated?
In this analogy:
The balloon: is the housing market itself.
The pilot: is the government including those regulating agencies which they appoint.
The propane burner: is the machinery that injects 'money' (as opposed to heat) into the housing market.
Altitude: is synonymous with rising prices.
The Top Release Valve: is what The B.o.E. can use to calm an overheated market.
The weather: is the employment prospects in the locality, which are always variable.
The basket slung below the balloon contains the house-owning public for the time being. These are the people buying or causing the demand that gives rise to sale-prices in the first place.
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Just as with the top release valve in an air balloon, if it is not actuated when it should be, too much 'heat' is allowed to carry the balloon too high, i.e. higher then is required for a smooth and safe journey. Adverse weather conditions may, of course, be encountered if this is allowed to occur.
In a similar way, The B.o.E. can (and should) restrict mortgage lending, to quickly cool an over-heated housing economy irrespective of the wishes of those with divergent interests or agendas.
In addition, it needs to be understood that first applying too much heat and then letting it escape from the Top Release Valve later, is extremely wasteful of energy (or mortgage resources). It is likely to exacerbate price rises followed by lower prices later on.
So you will see, there is far more to presiding over the housing market than simply pumping more money in, when you think you might like prices to go higher!
Having given you what is an unusual analogy, we’d like to leave it to others to add to it or comment at will!