House prices inched up 03% i May, Nationwide building society reported this morning.
The slight fall offsset April's small fall of 0.2%, bringing national house prices to 1.2% lower than they were this time a year ago.
Nationwide says the average house price now stands at £167,208, up from £165,709 in April.
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Comments
Err......Wilts Agent.....Pardon me?
Thanks Peebee, very kind of you......Broad shoulders and all that (not fat for anyone who knows me, just broad!)
Pee Bee - Haven't Kensington and Chelsea transactions been boosted by the new stamp duty deadline? This release of course features data for April, not May. The detailed transaction numbers they quote are also only as current as February. This really clouds the picture here.
Where Blaenau Gwent has gone wrong is in clearly not building enough million pound properties...
rantnrave - couldn't agree with you more on the Gwent situation - however I would have expected the numbers to be more or at least the same as Kensington & Chelsea yet no mention for there of volatility...
In fact, the very matter of numbers plays a huge part in this, doesn't it. I cannot argue with you that numbers are substantially down on 'averages'.
I would, however, say that the same principle must therefore fit - the lower the number of transactions, the more prominent the peaks and troughs. If transactions were doubled, then the line would be somewhat smoother to follow.
Or do you disagree?
PeeBee - I'm really surprised no-one else is discussing the Land Reg release (no doubt everyone north of Watford is too busy trying to offload their BTL portfolio... that's a joke by the way before people get fired-up).
Blaenau Gwent does get a mention later on as being a place where the current level of transactions are so low that the figures are jumping around all over the place.
Someone over on HPC got their calculator out and has suggested that without London, the monthly rise reported would be just above zero.
Two points struck me from the data - firstly the possibility that the growing number of properties above the million Pound mark that have changed hands has had a noticeable impact on the data.
Secondly, although the issue of price rises or falling can be debated depending upon the region, the drop off in transactions over the last 12 months is undeniable.
r'n'r - I'm SO glad you have brought up the new LR Report!
(This way - it doesn't look like I'm rubbing anyones noses in anything...)
We all had a bit fall-out only three weeks ago over the story entitled "House prices 'to fall for next five years' , say economists". In there, it quoted the LAST LR Report, which stated "Blaenau Gwent experienced the greatest annual price fall with a movement of -19.9 per cent.."
WELL - what a difference a month makes!! The April report records the same district as having a 7.5% RISE montth-on-month; and the annual change now being -7.6%.
HOW DOES THAT WORK? Those figures don't look right to me...
Here they are - straight from the report. March: average price £65305. April: average £72870. Now with my 'O'-Level fail, I get that to be 11.58% increase - NOT 7.5%.
MY question is, has Blaenau Gwent become the site of the new HousePriceLaunch? ;o)
Lies...damn lies...LandReg Monthly Reports...
Today's Land Reg release backs up Ray's point. Kensington and Chelsea prices rose 2.3% in a single month! Meanwhile prices in Coventry fell 2.4% in April.
Wilts Agent: Then you are either extraordinarily touchy today - or you have gone soft all of a sudden!
Ric defends your profession with a passion that many could only aspire to. He often faces a barrage of abuse from HPC militants without so much as a squeak. in another thread his name is amended - I'll leave your imagination to work it out, shall I?
You will find that he is one of the consistently accurate posters on this site.
You need to get out more - or simply read deeper before you cast aspersions. It is people like Ric who MAKE your profession worthwhile, judging by what he writes on this site on a daily basis.. First and foremost he is your colleague in industry. If you are so easily divided, then there is little help for you as a profession.
I strongly suggest an apology is in order, and a retraction of your ludicrous statement..
Wow, I've been in estate agency for the past 20 years and in all that time, not once have I been embarrassed of what I do for a living, today that has changed, Ric I have just read your comments on this thread, you are unjustifiably rude and a disgrace to the profession.
Charlie one of my offices has a sold pipeline of 45 one of 37 and one 25 and this is pretty average and yes they do exchange ! Seriously I am far from desperate my point throughout this was no more and is no more than to chuckle at the reaction to those who long for the drop in monthly figures! Nothing more it is just very funny don't you think that every post last month from the HPC clan was wait for Mays figures well we did ;)
Like most have said it's meaningless anyway the average but funny! Enjoy the bank holiday and when the Halifax report their findings the fun can start again!
"As others have pointed out this kind of national average is completely meaningless."
So why do you all wet your pampers with excitement when it states a negative?
Is it just me or does Ric sound increasingly desperate? Seems to be getting very worked-up over a 0.3% rise. Or small real terms fall.
As others have pointed out this kind of national average is completely meaningless.
RE ANNA "Brit1234 is at play skool trying to get to 5"
No Brit is working hard for a living, he does have all the free time of an Estate Agent in an empty office. ;)
About this rise, yes I expected it might happen, I also expect possibly another one next month as well as a possible Halifax rise and a land registry one the month after.
This is a house price crash, there will always be blip months especially at the strongest point in the market. In addition transaction levels are so low that the figures are more erratic.
The trend is down and these overvalued prices will continue falling.
Or does everyone see the economic climate improving with big pay increases, lower taxes, lower inflation, improved lending and confidence increasing?
Gooders your example of the 500k house only stands true with a limited sample size, the Nationwide report covers thousands of transactions so every 500k house is compensated for by some 40k repos.
I can't say for certain that this one is, but many of these reports are also adjusted to compensate for such anomalies in the statistics.
These stats are nothing to sing and dance about, we need to wait a couple of months and look for a trend.
National Figures (NF) are meaningless to enable purchasers/sellers to judge ones own area - Up? Down?
However, some areas must be up if the NF is up - trouble is which ones?
The best bet is to actually ask ((debate with) your local agent - they know their area.
Gooders - yes, there is a collective name: Young people
Thanks for the reply but I dont really understand the relevance of an avge price...what avge are we talking mean mode etc let me explain my thought process.... Month one you sell 9 houses at 100k and one at 500K the avge house price is reported as 140K
Month 2 you sell 8 houses and 2 at 500K and the avge price is reported at 180K does this mean that all the people who have houses on at 100K should increase all there asking prices??
So I think the average house price indices are pointless....measuring the amount of sales is what is important....which i believe is significantly down.
So analyse why they are down and put it right!
My comment on easy money is based on my knowledge of friends who are Estate agents....i do not doubt holding a chain together can be difficult and they may work hard and have tough targets....but none of them had to study to gain entry to the profession. Sorry for the inference!
Typed with a dodgy touchpad hope it makes sense!
As for why it will be more difficult to sell.....Ttke my example i am a above average earner...I cannot afford a deposit and will not be given a mortgage....will i rent yes....will it be from a landlord via an estate agent No.
It will be from a friend who has a house and wishes to maintain a good standard of living therefore taking my money out of the system.
I think there will be many more doing this and we may never buy or rent our own property again!
Is there a collective name for us types??
If FTBs are struggling to get a deposit together or access to the finance to purchase a property then transactions will fall. Sales that go through will mostly involve those that are already equity-rich or overseas buyers taking advantage of the weaker Pound. I can see how a scenario would seemingly skew sold prices upwards.
a misconception in your post there gooders,
firstly this is a traditionally good time for transactions, if anything they will be up not down. I don’t understand how fewer transactions pulls prices up in this scenario unless there is less on the market. Which there isn’t.
Agents do not want high house prices, you are correct its all about transactions.
Another is that we are earning easy money....you seriously have no idea.
Please excuse typos and spellings below.
Am i missing something which is more important to an Estate Agent, house prices or conversion rates and time on market?
Also i am astounded by the the rudeness displayed by some of the agents on here.....no wonder yofallsur profession is one of the most loathed.
Yes there has been a tiny rise in avge house prices there MAY be many reasons for this the one cause i suspect is the declining number of sales overall.
For the record I am not a HPC'r or Estate Agent but I dont believe we will see significant falls for some time. A tipping point would be a significant raise in interest rates...which i dont see happening either.
Instead the UK will IMHO become a stagnant economic dinosaur, unless we funadamentally change our relaince on the service sector and public sectors
In a depression people will need to adjust and owning your own home will no longer one of your most important aspirations - so there will be more multi occupancy homes as we see standards of living falling and continuing to fall in the UK.
In 2 -3 years many of you estate agents will be looking for new ways to make easy money.....because its going to get harder to sell houses and good luck to you!
Ho hum, I did maintain to Jonnie some time back that I only focus on national data (principally LR, NW & Halifax).
Am I disappointed? Yes, slightly.
Do I hope next week's Halifax will be %-ve? Yes, very much so.
Here's to statistical blips...
I don't know rant but he/she comments are always structured danger with this site is you can start to sound a bit childish !
Personally I only care about my profit account, prices up or down if I am in profit I don't really care what happens as like you say too many micro markets and mine are moving well so perhaps I should not even bother with some of the banter
Anyway i don't think and hope rant was not insulted certainly not meant as an insult.... I think many on here probably just laugh a lot when certain things are written hey according to brat I am a pric no need to agree though rant ;)
Ric,
I have always found Rant to be polite, well informed and never insulting. Differing views yes, but not insulting. I don’t think he deserves the flack he gets on here sometimes.
anyway...... the posters below are correct, national figures are about as useful as global ones, adjoining postcodes can differ as much as 10-20%. All academic in my view.
I hate these meaningless reports.
What is shocking is that we have just been instructed by a very realistic vendor - for once we are the first agent in!
Ric - did you read my last post?
I didn't realise EAs were so despairing that a monthly rise of 0.3% would see them popping champagne...
Anna...v funny!
@Rant...Prices went up in May....and then you say bla bla bla they had previously fallen...bla bla bla, you pick a start date and then tell us all they are lower than then! funny.
So I will do the same......prices have risen in May 2011 and are higher than they were in 1991.....8>)
Rant, all I am saying is 1 month of rise is not enough to say a corner turned I agree, but 1 month of rise is further evidence that the CRASH some are looking for WILL NOT HAPPEN
Fact is Prices have risen in May.....Please Rant say it go on try this say it slowly.......Per-rices have ris-ern in May.......relax your mind and tell me what happened to prices in May according the Nationwide. I am not interested in anything previously as any decent agent will tell you it is all about today, Yesterday has been and gone!
Ric - as the title suggests, they have inched up in May from a fall last month but overall are down a whisker year-on-year. In nine of the last ten years, Nationwide's data has recorded an increase in May, so it's not exactly unpredictable.
A 0.3% month on month is not fuel for theories that a huge HPC is underway. Coming during what is supposed to be one of the busiest periods of the year, it doesn't exactly point to a strong 'recovery' in prices either.
In real terms, the percentage change is pretty much flat. If house prices aren't keeping up with general inflation, then neither are salaries, so it's an academic point any way.
I don't think anyone can draw much conclusions, but no doubt over the next hundred posts or so, we'll all be giving it a try!
For what it's worth, April's Land Registry data is out this coming Tuesday. I'm not predicting what news that will bring but it does at least give more of a regional break down that others here have suggested is more meaningful.
Is that a balanced enough perspective?
Brit1234 is at play skool trying to get to 5
Come on Rant surely this one is not worth fighting against....Prices have risen in May....and thats that......
Wheres Brit1234, he must be having a bad day with this news.
Err - some perspective here Richard - in the middle of peak buying season, house prices are reported to be up by a rate lower than general inflation?
The silly HPC children will no doubt be squirming at this and post endless drivel when they get home from play group.
One set of data I would really like to see, which we aren't going to get, is average house price for UK residents vs non-residents.
@local agent
You are absolutely spot on!
I have been saying for ages that National figures are meaningless and give people the wrong impression regarding prices in their area - whether up OR down.
Regions or Areas are the only real guide.
these national figures are utterly pointless. one group (london and south eas) will be saying they are utter nonsense as prices are up here and another group (everyone else) will be saying they are utter nonsense cos prices are down much more there.
stop national statistics and just give regional ones.
Here we go again!!!!!!!!!
Actually in our part of the world we are selling houses at 10% - 15% above this time last year
Our transaction volumes are up by 35% and we cannot get enough stock to satisfy the demand from first time buyers wanting to get onto the ladder.
Good times are here again.
Nope - they've fallen. Down 1.2%. Nationwide have decided to seasonally adjust the figures though. Essentially they have kicked the decision of letting the public know that prices have fallen further down the road.
Still, down over 1% in the 'Spring Bounce' is quite a shocker.
Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! The CRASH, The CRASH!!!!!
So basically House Prices HAVE risen!
Over to you Brit1234!