Green shoots in the housing market are reported by Hometrack this morning.
It said there has been “a marked improvement in housing market conditions” this month.
The number of new buyers registering jumped 18%, after two months of major declines, and represented the strongest level of demand seen since the start of the downturn. The rise compared with the 15% increase in potential buyers recorded in February 2009.
Property listings also grew, by 15%, whilst average time on the market crept down to just below the ten-week mark.
Hometrack attributes some of the rise in demand to first-time buyers looking to beat the end of the Stamp Duty holiday on March 24.
While average selling prices have not changed at all since the start of the year, this is masked by a small increase in London offsetting price falls across six regions in the North and Midlands, and unchanged prices across the South-East, East Anglia and Yorkshire & Humberside.
However, Hometrack points out that it is a scarcity of supply that remains a key feature of the market.
Hometrack director of research Richard Donnell said: “As investors and first-time buyers have no properties to sell, the growth in demand outpaced the increase in supply across nearly all regions.
“Over the last six months, there has been only a small (1.5%) increase in the supply of housing and this scarcity continues to act as a support to pricing.”
He added: “While the seasonal pick-up in demand is to be welcomed, the fundamentals facing the housing market remain largely unchanged: the average time to sell, for example, remains at relatively high levels and the balance of supply and demand remains in negative equity.
“In the short term, a lack of housing for sale is set to underpin prices, while market activity will benefit from the support of first-time buyers as they race to beat the ending of the Stamp Duty holiday.”
The Hometrack survey is based on responses from around 5,000 estate agents.
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Comments
what a good job Dave is a complete idiot and nothing he says actually matters. Why do you all rise, would you mock a mentally ill child? No of course not, leave idiot Dave alone.
@Dave
When are you and your family moving to Japan where you and your 'kids' (that you constantly mention) will be able to buy a property for 50 pence! ;>)
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@dave, To be clear are you saying a 99% drop in house prices in the event we are not all wiped out by a nuclear holocaust will get you down to the local estate agents?
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I would make the 50 mile trip with glee...assuming it still exists
@dave, To be clear are you saying a 99% drop in house prices in the event we are not all wiped out by a nuclear holocaust will get you down to the local estate agents?
so just to clarify sue
I think that you won't be making money on property for 15-20 years whatever the reduction
property is an asset class best avoided for a long long time
gold and oil dropped for 18 years from 1980...oil was actually $9 intraday in 1999! then went bananas,so anything can happen
thats if we don't blow ourselves up that is...law of averages would suggest a nuclear exchange is on the cards at some point..where then for 'investments'
I am the real dave...beware of imposters
well sue.. some tokyo property fell 99%(from google)
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Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak
imo property won't have capital growth for 20 years...so 50% off now is unlikely to then increase for a long long time
best to wait and buy a property to live in or a holiday let
I just want our kids to buy a home and live in it
If I want to rent I will. Ok I will never own a darn thing but at least I can say I have paid me rent! And if I can't you tax payers will give me bnefits.
and you lot call me thick Dave! HaH!
Dave,
Quick, go now, grab a bargain.
http://www.cheapflights.co.uk/flights/Japan/UK-Area/?source=goDest-Top25-ASIA-def_Dest-AS-Japan-e&srckeyword=flights+to+japan&srctype=search
@dave, so is a 50% discount sufficient for you or would you want a bigger discount?
60%?
70%?
80%?
90%?
Or greater?
Please answer the question, so far you haven’t, I also follow this site and know that your views on parallels with Japan are well known.
Perhaps you would be kind enough to confirm which of the above % discounts you are happy with, it would be a concise measure of your sentiment as a potential buyer
@sueg
I think we need to stop thinking about property as an investment...we don't need a portfolio of property to make our fortune and its not guaranteed as you can see
the property market was bailed out by 0.5% interest rates plain and simple...bailed out.
In japan they did the same thing but still suffered DEFLATION..property is still 40% less than 1991,stockmarket 75% less and people save money after being excluded from credit
same is happening here...as prices fall people will buy liquidated buy to let portfolios rather than rent
the current situation cannot continue
The reason that non-governmental sources issue these reports is for publicity, pure and simple. Thus, the headline never reads 'Amazingly dull month for housing market'... Instead, when it has been quiet, we get treated to all sorts of future trends and crystal ball gazing published as facts.
The latest RICS report was a classic case in point. Headline: 'Expiry of Stamp Duty Exemption Boosts Activity'. Buried inside the report: The percentage of surveyors reporting a rise in buyer enquiries fell from plus two to minus seven.
A lot of these debates / discussions / abuse hurlings on EAToday wouldn't take place if the forum was split into regions. What's happening to prices around the country varies enormously. Northern Ireland has had the biggest crash in prices anywhere on the planet this century. The party in London meanwhile seems to have no end in sight.
Thus, those in the South East can put their viewing lens to their covered eye and declare that they see no house price crash. Those in the North though would disagree.
I'm in the Midlands, where a correction rather than a crash is well under way. Data isn't the plural of anecdote, but here's an example of what I'm seeing: when I moved to the area in early 2008, my neighbour at the time was trying to sell his pad for 127K. At the end of 2007, he told me, he had refused an offer of 120K. He finally shifted it for under 105K last summer (admittedly there were four of them by then in a two-bed semi at the time, so he was keen to relocate). Today there are three-bed semis on that street with asking prices of sub 100K. FTBs down south can only dream of such a scenario.
A different perspective would see house prices remaining at their current levels until 2020 (given clampdowns on self-cert and IO mortgages, high unemployment etc I see very little upward pressure on house prices). Many HPC deniers would no doubt call that a victory. If wages rise over that period, houses thus become more affordable and a de facto crash takes place anyway. Nominally, house prices bottomed out in the early 90s last time round. It was three more years or so before they reached the lowest multiple of salaries though.
That scenario would suit today's 20-somethings very well, especially if they have uni debt to take care of. Today's 30-something who waited that long to make a first purchase would find themselves running out of working years to pay the mortgage off though.
So, should the 30 somethings bite the bullet and take advantage of low interest rate deals, trying to pay back as much as they can before that rises? In much of the UK, I still think they would be better off waiting. In the South East, I'm not so sure. There is a genuine shortage of property down there (partly due to a national economic policy that favours London above the interests of the other regions). They may have to bite the bullet or relocate.
As another poster has pointed out, are we therefore witnessing a fundamental shift in the UK housing market? While several of the over 50s in my office are trying to sell their house (and none of them have dropped their price, some after three years), all the under 35s in my office are renting. Whether this is a shift, a blip, or whatever, I think it's a very sad situation that the government and others have allowed the home-owning dreams of so many of the younger generation to be shattered.
(apols for a rambling post that even Pee Bee would be proud of)
@Fun Boy Agent on 2012-02-27 16:47:52
Yes! Certainly as good as some I am aware of! ;>)
@dave, interesting article but are these not exactly the kind of deals you should be snapping up and have been waiting to buy? 50% off when apparently not justified as they don’t even need refurbing and you can take advantage of the carelessness of a BTL empire falling to bits and a lender that wants out ASAP
Or shall we assume that going at half current value is not quite a deal enough for you?
Mr Ray,
Do you think Bear Grylls would make a fine EA?
One could pontificate all day on this subject (and some do!) but one thing is certain and that is the majority of people in this country WANT to buy rather than rent and when they can they will do so. Supply & Demand will eventually control volumes and prices. When that will be, who knows? Until then survival is the name of the game for owners, buyers and EAs.
Brit123 oh dear why the anger, is it you see now no real crash and you are stuck renting for ever, but take some crumb of comfort , your rent is paying someone else’s Buy to Let mortgage so they end up owning a property mortgage free.
Do you self a favour don’t look on this site it does you no good!
Are you that idiot Dave posting as well??
truth coming out about buy to let
I thought it was a license to print money
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2105915/Northern-Rock-B-B-bad-bank-forcing-sell-loss-buy-let-landlords-claim.html
Looks like a repeat performance of last year to me. flatlining prices, few seals. last year we saw spring (march-may) produce more of those extra seals that us bears need to get us through June-Feb. Hoping this spring will be the same, got the blow holes ready just waiting for the seals to pop there heads out of the sea. Seems to be getting a little tougher each year, some say this is a man-made problem that will get worse over time, I havent noticed any of my other fellow bears dying off, although they do all look slimmer and aren't feeding as many cubs as they used to.
"bring me sunshine, la la laaaaa, bring me rain"
Really interesting article on the housing market a good read! Will pass on to customers of Firstxtra a financial services company who specialize in Mortgages and Re-mortgages http://www.firstxtra.co.uk/mortgages.html
Thanks for the read!
dave is slow today 11.41 before Japan came up :0)
Liquidated portfolios are another topic altogether, an interesting point is that the lenders on these that are being taken into possession are keeping them and appear to be creating considerable growth and business in the LPA Receiver sector as a result
Fair enough Jonnie, well, you're at the sharp end so i'll defer to your working knowledge.
the ray of sunshine will occur when our kids buy the liquidated portfolios of buy to let landlords
the current situation is no different than tulips from amsterdam,south sea bubble or dotcom boom
when the penny drops there will be a rush for the exits
property will fall for 10-20 years just like japan
@Sibleys – fair point, but I haven’t had single FTB in here saying they need to get something purchased sharpish to save 1% - so back to my issue, its not as ‘artificially’ boomy out there as you might think – its just normal old new year, good front end stuff but the pipelines got exchanged out before Christmas so we are all building them again.
Anyway to @BRIT1234. im interested in your comment about the economy as you do appear to be hoping for your ‘storm clouds’ to bring about the collapse in prices you are ‘looking forward to’ ……..you see we are all in this together and a decline in the economy would mean people like you and I loosing our jobs – so how sure are you that if the world goes the way you want and has the desired effect on values that you will be able to exploit it and wont find your self on £65 a week jobseekers allowance / supporting your Mrs & kids with your savings?
We are all (well im not im self employed) one email away from a redundancy consultation…………..I assume this includes you or are you something special in employment terms that will always be the most valued member of an organisation?
Jonnie
Steady on boys!
Normal?
I like this market as normal, nice and steady. Not boom, not bust, just nice and level.
If this is normal, once we have the correct number of professionals servicing the 'normal' all will be just fine and dandy.
When will people stop sensationalising statistics like this. Yes, maybe it is the strongest percentage increase in demand but you cannot then state that it's a level unless you are using raw figures. For example the underlying data could be in 2009 there was 200 reg buyers (initial level) which increased by 15% to 230 (new level). This recent stat could represent an increase in the level of buyers from 100 to 118 - a larger percentage increase but NOT the highest level. Get it right please.
No, not having it both ways Jonnie. Transactions will be broadly similiar by year-end 2012 as it was in 2011 - that much ii'm reasonably sure of.
My point being that the bullish would be inclined to believe this trend (and Hometrack themselves use the word 'artificial') indicates a 'return to normal'.
What will happen is x thousand FTB transactions will be brought forward resulting in an equally artificial slump in April/May.
I doubt this will have much impact on house-prices to be honest.
Anon, thank you for the heads-up re: LLs building gaffs to rent. Intersting, i'll bung it up over t'other side. Not much in the way of data/details but not a bad thing for more properties being built be they to rent or buy.
I'm looking forward to the price falls and dying Market after march.
Woopy doo more people have registered with estate agents in the core buying period compared with the dead holiday season. This has been happening since the roman days.
Is it really worth rushing to beat the stamp duty holiday to save £1.6k when the seller has delisted and raised the asking price? Of course not.
Meanwhile the state of the economy gets worse and storm clouds continue to gather strength round the world.
House prices are too high, they are unsustainable at these levels and we won't have a recovery til we allow them to correct.
Sibley 's has nipped out to view a flat. Rant is viewing at 10:15, Dave at 10:20, S's B C at 10:30
Funny how all of them are after the same place, mind you it is the only one left.
Its got a big old whiff of new year against Nov / December about it and if any one can be bothered to look into the numbers they probably have a few holes in, as someone once said 68% of statistics are made up on the spot anyway.
The issue here is the one my mates Sibleys and Rant have raised, and might I add a week or two later than I thought and this is the ‘its artificially good but wont last’ idea
………………..now, Sib’s and Rant are you trying to have the argument both ways? You regularly remind us that volumes are on the floor and it will get better when prices drop a lot, you invented a term ive never heard spoken by any one in property of ‘Spring Bounce’ and tell us how we aren’t having one and here you are telling us (EA’s) that the market is actually quite good, which one is it lads?
Jonnie
Seasonal pick up in demand. How is this newsworthy?.
There was a bit of bad news for you HPCers put out on LAT last week.
In a nutshell the folk with money are now "building to let". Instead of developers putting up an estate and selling starter homes etc to FTB's, The professional BTL landlords are taking swaths of new homes out of the market.
Now I am only an opinionated HPC Denier, but I think that one story really shows how society is changed/ changing and it is a clear message that you ought to get on and buy while you can afford to.
Stick trend lines on any graph you like for House prices and you will see that prices are currently below the line of population growth, demand push, property price inflation.
Tell me why I am wrong Sibley, Rant and Dave!
And this is a surprise because? Both me and Rant said this would happen. Take away a financial incentive and people will act accordingly.
Watch this space in April/May.