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Tom Shaw
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None of the decisions to move into international markets or team with country life were put to a member vote. This is not a mutual. The UK needs a true mutual portal that is run by members for members. Property Mutual may be that portal but they need support and investment from all the UK estate agents.
From:
Tom Shaw
06 January 2016 08:04 AM
In terms of views, yes they are a long way from Zoopla, but are about neck and neck with PrimeLocation according to my analysis from looking at search volume on Google which I reckon is a fairly good proxy for website views.
From:
Tom Shaw
06 January 2016 08:01 AM
OTM has been setup by the prime London brands to replace PrimeLocation as a go to portal for prime property. They do not have the interests of the average UK estate agent at heart. They have made a push into international properties and also teamed up with country life. This strategy is 100% aligned with the business model that Savills and KF want. They want their own portal for the high end, country and international sales and this is what OTM is destined to become. I really pity the other UK estate agents who are paying £500 per month to fund Savills and KF's corporate goals.
From:
Tom Shaw
06 January 2016 08:00 AM
Just a thought. I know that emoov had around 10% net margin when they ran the business on a self financing basis in 2011. As they grow they will invest in tech and their advertising will become more affective as their brand becomes better known and people are more willing to accept a new way to sell houses. I think they will get underlying net margins up to 20% over time. If in 10 years they control 10% of UK market with average revenue of say £800 (their prices will increase over time as they build brand trust, then lets say they sell 100,000 properties per year x £800 = £80,000,000x 20% margin = £16,000,000 Then p/e ratio of say 12 once listed and you get a valuation of £192m off the back of UK sales alone. You then move into rentals, commercial, student, flatshares, holiday lets, and then replicate internationally and the potential valuations is basically think of a number. It is this kind of thinking that is the basis for current valuations.
From:
Tom Shaw
16 December 2015 10:05 AM
No, I have not invested in easy property and sorry I did not mean to preach or teach granny to suck eggs, but I do see the online agents as a serious long term threat and I think a lot of the high street agents who have historically cut prices to 1% to win business will get squeezed out. My bet is that what will remain 20 years from now are the nationwide online low fee agent (purple bricks and the like) and high performing local agents who have a track record of selling for a premium. Agree that valuations based on current earnings are ridiculous but the valuations are being generated on likely future growth. The model is very scalable and that is what they are buying into. These people are not in the main retail investors piling blindly in to the next hot investment (although saw some of that with recent crowd funding), but in the main they are seasoned professional investors and are far from stupid.
From:
Tom Shaw
16 December 2015 09:51 AM
a 25m investment if you have deep enough pockets is small change compared to the potential prize at stake. It is clear these guys are backed by smart wealthy investors who will demand that they see a good return and grow quickly. I think online will double each year from now on and represent 50% of the market in 5 years. If you were not in the industry and you were selling your home would you spend £3k+vat selling your average UK house or £650 + vat? Online agents are just another form of discounters. Foxtons in London still command 2.5% when there are cheaper alternatives for 1%. Now there is the online alternative, so agents will not only have to sell the added value, but walk the talk. In the end traditional agents will only survive if they present unquestionable proof that they can realise a higher price for the vendors. Otherwise they will die.
From:
Tom Shaw
15 December 2015 09:53 AM
Rather than laughing I would be seriously thinking about how I will compete, raising my game, adding value.
From:
Tom Shaw
15 December 2015 09:47 AM
Investors like this will have done a tonne of due diligence. They will know the turnover, the margins, but they are investing for the big picture. 1.1m property sales in the UK. If the market consolidates down to 4 big players which I think it could over the next 20 years that is a sizeable business. They can then take this into commercial, student accommodation, flat shares and then to other countries ad infinitum.
From:
Tom Shaw
15 December 2015 09:46 AM
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