By using this website, you agree to our use of cookies to enhance your experience.


OBR predicts 9% house price drop

House prices are set to fall by 9% over the next two years, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) claims.

The OBR, which keeps an eye on the government’s own finances and forecasts, has released its own economic outlook in the aftermath of today’s Autumn Statement.

It suggests that house prices are forecast to fall by 9% between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2024, largely driven by higher mortgage rates as well as the wider economic downturn.


The report highlights that a squeeze on real incomes, rise in interest rates and fall in house prices will all weigh on consumption and investment, tipping the economy into a recession lasting just over a year from the third quarter of 2022.

The OBR said it expects average interest rates on the stock of outstanding mortgages to peak at 5% in the second half of 2024, the highest since 2008, before falling back slightly to 4.6 per cent by the end of 2027.

The report highlights that around 83% of mortgages are on fixed rates so it will take time to feed through to the wider market.

The OBR added: “As the economy recovers, house prices rise slightly faster than nominal incomes from 2025, at around 2.6% a year, and the house-price-to-earnings ratio settles at around 7%, somewhat lower than the ratio of 7.3% in our March forecast. 

“There is significant uncertainty over this forecast given the sensitivity of house prices to mortgage rates and the recent volatility in the bond yields that drive pricing in the mortgage market.”

Its economic forecast shows it is expecting house prices to be up 10.7% annually by the end of this year but to then drop by 1.2% in 2023 and 5.7% in 2024.

The OBR suggests prices will be up by 1.2% in 2025, by 3% in 2026 and by 3.5% in 2027.

  • Glenn Taylor

    So these clowns predict a 9% price drop an hour after the Autumn Statement revealed stamp duty cuts would end in 2025 incentivising thousands of new buyers that create high value buyers to move before the cuts end. Do these people get paid for such codswallop!!

  • icon

    Am I being thick?

    1.2% drop 2023.

    5.7% drop 2024.

    Where does 9% come from?

    Hardly a crash either way - egg on faces for the doom-mongers.

    Yes it looked very bad after the mini-budget and would have been a disaster if unchecked.

    But it was sorted quickly.

    Michael Day

    John. You haven't factored the drop in house prices Q4 2022 which with predicted falls in next 2 years comes to 9%.

    No predictions on transactional volumes though which is the essential metric in estate agency. I expect a significantly higher reduction.

    Matthew Payne

    The balance is Nov/Dec 2022. I agree its not clear though like the mortgage numbers. Whilst the numbers are no doubt correct it is not referring to what the base rate or lenders SVRs or fixed rates maybe as I know a few people who are already panicked at the prospect of 5-6% rates until 2027.

    When they say 5% and 4.6% on "outstanding mortgages", this reflects a huge number of people who spooked by all the nonsense about a 7% base rate over the last 2-3 months have committed to pretty ugly fixed rates for 2 or even 5 years. Ive heard loads of anecdotals stories from brokers about people buying themselves out of 2% fixed rates that arent even coming to an end for another year or so, to get themselves onto 5-6%, 5 year deals to supposedly protect themselves, not understanding the dynamics of why rates cant stay too high for too long.

    Bonkers, but thats the effect all this negative, scare mongering nonsense has had on the market. To make matters worse, lenders know this and have been making their 2 year fixed and tracker rates particularly unattractive to snare as many as they can onto 5 year deals that are already now seen as expensive after only a few weeks, let alone the 56 months they still now have to run. The future issue of this crisis wont be people remortgaging in 2023, it will be those that already have in H2 2022.

  • icon

    Thanks Stephen. 10% ruse this year - 9% drop over 2 years - a nice soft landing back to a normal market and mortgage interest rates coming down - 5.07 ave 5-yr fixed rate reported yesterday. Should be good for those who know what they are doing.

  • Glenn Taylor

    This fixation that the values will drop should not be endorsed at this point. It is sheer speculation; all it is leading to is price chipping.
    If you are truly at the coal face you are not seeing price correction you are seeing buyers seeing inflation, higher interest rate, soaring energy prices, talk of recession. All a perfect storm to encourage them to do nothing. When this settles, and it will end of the first quarter of 2023, there will be a clamour for properties, particularly new properties.
    Price reductions are pointless in this situation. Demand is still stronger than supply.
    The responsibility of a true agent is to promote positivity not agreement that house values are dropping by 10%, what sort of business model is that!!!

  • Matt Faizey

    You're all missing the real talking point.

    It matters not the accuracy of the prediction, to those us us on here what matters is how the public respond.

    Glenn Taylor

    It matters how we advise them

  • icon

    Why worry none of us can affect the price drop that is sure to come
    Just do what you can do not worry what others do or say


Please login to comment

MovePal MovePal MovePal
sign up