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House prices to fall next year if market cycle continues - agency

An estate agency says it’s analysed the housing market’s long term cycles and forecasts that house price rises will continue - but only until early summer next year. 

Research from Keller Williams UK has analysed how the four seasons of the year impact house prices and market demand, and says this suggests prices are very unlikely to drop until at least June 2022.

The agency insists that, by splitting the calendar year into seasons, it is clear that the UK housing market follows a predictable cycle.


The average house price in autumn - September, October, November - over the past three years has sat at £240,000. Always a busy time of year, this goes a long way to explain why prices and demand are still so high today.

As the year moves into winter - December, January, February - the average house price climbs even further. Over the past 36 months, the average house price in winter has been £243,998.

Moving into Spring - March, April, May - prices rise again to an average of £245,000.

It is only with the arrival of summer that prices start to decline. Over the past three years, the average house price in the summer season has sat at £237,980, the lowest price for the whole year.

A statement from the agency says: “So the data suggests that having already seen a summer of hot house price growth, we should now see property values continue on their upward trend until summer 2022, at the very least.”


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