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House prices to drop 12% before long term growth - latest prediction

Typical prices in the UK housing market will drop 12 per cent before long-term growth resumes in 2021 and beyond.

That’s the forecast from insurance giant Aviva which is even gloomier about commercial property, predicting a 15 per cent decline. 

Aviva is one of the insurers operating business interruption policies and it says it faces paying out some £160m with regard to those and other Coronavirus-related policies.




Earlier this week the Financial Conduct Authority closed its call for details from individual business interruption claimants - applying to all insurers - as it prepared a legal test case over those firms refusing to honour BI policies. 

Some agents are believed to have submitted their details for inclusions in the test case; progress on this is posted on a dedicated webpage set up by the FCA.

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    Err where exactly is the evidence for a 12% drop, From what I can see vendors are saying if we don't get the price then we won't sell until better times or rent it out for a while, the builders have already claimed they have lost 35% of their production for the year, only adding to a shortage of supply and putting a floor under the market.

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    I doubt this very much. The prices will go up as they always do due to inflation. The actual value of a property is based on salary available to spend, market supply of property and all the rest of it. If BTL is involved the rents achievable versus the costs of good/poor tenants are another factor. 2021 isn't very far away so a 12% drop right now is hardly a problem unless you are forced to sell.


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