A new house price index that in June predicted big house price rises over the summer has now repeated its claim, and says there will be some significant monthly rises this autumn.
Reallymoving’s first-ever house price index published in June forecast a nine per cent rise over the summer.
At the time its chief executive Rob Houghton issued a statement saying: “New buyer demand and a continued shortage of quality housing stock is on course to drive strong price growth between May and August, with particular surges in regions benefiting from strong demand such as the north east and the south west, where affordability remains attractive and wages are rising.”
Now the firm claims much of this actually happened.
In a new statement it says there was a 6.0 per cent surge in prices in June - so far none of the long-standing house price indices has suggested anything like this level of single month price growth.
Reallymoving goes on to forecast that “average values” are set to rise by 1.5 per cent over the next three months, August to October, but in volatile fashion - up 3.2 per cent by the end of this month and down 1.4 per cent in September.
An explanatory note with the index says it uses “average house prices calculated from data submitted [to the company] on conveyancing quote forms” and that predictions for August to October are “ based on registrations from May to July 2019 respectively.”
It claims that between August 2018 and July this year it analysed data from 82,065 completed conveyancing quote forms.
Houghton now says: “The outlook for the property market over the next three months is remarkably positive, considering the current political and economic context. The recent election of a new Prime Minister who is committed to leaving the EU on Halloween even if a deal isn’t reached could mean clouds are gathering on the horizon, but any impact on prices in the short term is likely to be mitigated by the urgency of home movers to complete deals in the next three months.
“While the longer term outlook remains uncertain, we could see a Boris Bounce in the property market if he is true to his word over stamp duty reform and stimulates the market through tax cuts at the top and bottom.
“Scrapping stamp duty for downsizers could be a cost-effective way to stimulate activity throughout the market, freeing up family homes and enabling chains of transactions, at relatively little cost.
“Annually, house prices in October are on track to be 2.8 per cent higher than they were in October 2018.”