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Summer price surge set to compensate for early 2019 falls

An analysis of transactions agreed this spring suggests there will be a surge in prices which will ultimately be reflected later this summer when those deals complete.

Home moving quotes service Reallymoving claims that sales agreed this spring suggest a remarkable nine per cent rise in average prices, which will register by late August.

The company says that as homebuyers register for quotes on its site typically 12 weeks before purchases complete - providing data on the purchase price agreed - it is possible to provide a forecast before those deals complete three months later. 

The service claims this follows a similar pattern to spring and summer 2018, when HM Land Registry recorded price rises of 4.4 per cent between May and August.

However, Reallymoving claims that this year has seen greater pent-up demand and growing impatience with the Brexit process resulting in a more pronounced increase in house prices during the summer period.

“Prices agreed this spring will show in Land Registry data in the summer, yet our customers registering for home move services as soon as their deal is agreed are giving us unique insight into what lies ahead for the housing market” says the service’s chief executive Rob Houghton. 

“Our forecasts suggest that sellers are growing tired of the ‘wait and see’ approach and once the Brexit deadline passed at the end of March, with no further clarification, sellers decided to press ahead with their move. 

“This new buyer demand and a continued shortage of quality housing stock is on course to drive strong price growth between May and August, with particular surges in regions benefiting from strong demand such as the North East and the South West, where affordability remains attractive and wages are rising.”

But Reallymoving says prices fell earlier in 2019 meaning the aggregate effect of its forecast summer increases will be only negligible.

“In June we can expect prices to see a return to positive growth with a rise of one per cent year on year, followed by zero change in July. This suggests that a strong market performance over the spring will see prices make up the value lost in the first part of 2019 and are set to recover to 2018 levels this summer” says Houghton.

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