The government's most publicised measure of housebuilding excludes around a fifth of all new build completions each year, according to a new report from the Home Builders Federation (HBF).
'Ghost Towns' claims that flawed methodology means around 30,000 new builds – equivalent to a town the size of Stevenage – are not counted in the official numbers released on a quarterly and annual basis by the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG).
The HBF's analysis of official housebuilding statistics claims the DCLG under-reports new build completions in 75% of local authorities – at an average of 153 'lost' homes in each location.
The report suggests that more than half of new build homes in Birmingham, Liverpool, Leicester, Salford and many London boroughs are unaccounted for in the quarterly statistics.
The HBF says that the housebuilding industry is 'rapidly increasing output', largely down to some significant government policy successes and that it is therefore disappointing that the shortfall gives critics 'the ammunition to criticise'.
"Housebuilding has increased significantly in recent years but the continual publication and use of inaccurate statistics is painting a negative picture that is undermining the progress being made in tackling the housing shortage," says Stewart Baseley, executive chairman of the HBF.
"The Government's housing policies and the industry are delivering, and it is incredibly frustrating that official statistics are not reflecting what is happening on the ground but instead presenting an open goal for critics."
The report suggests that the government's published data has excluded:
- At least 75% of the London Boroughs of Brent, Wandsworth, Hammersmith and Fulham and Kensington & Chelsea
- 1,280 new homes in Birmingham (two-thirds of all new build completions)
- 920 new homes in Liverpool (63% of all new build completions)
- 640 new homes in Salford (half of all new build completions)
- 570 new homes in Leicester (6 out of 10 new build completions)
- 570 new homes in Sheffield (40% of all new build completions)
- 400 new homes in Chester West & Chester (29% of all new build completions)
You can read 'Ghost Towns' in full here.
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"- At least 75% of the London Boroughs of Brent, Wandsworth, Hammersmith and Fulham and Kensington & Chelsea
- 1,280 new homes in Birmingham (two-thirds of all new build completions)
- 920 new homes in Liverpool (63% of all new build completions)
- 640 new homes in Salford (half of all new build completions)
- 570 new homes in Leicester (6 out of 10 new build completions)
- 570 new homes in Sheffield (40% of all new build completions)
- 400 new homes in Chester West & Chester (29% of all new build completions)"
Hmm, this still doesn't add up to very many new homes and nowhere close to the number that I understand is needed to plug the gap, as it were.
Why would the government undersell themselves like this? I would have thought, if they'd actually been building the homes, they would be shouting out about it, so why would they omit something they like that? Governments never usually miss a chance to beat their chests.
Sounds like a bit of protectionism on the HBF's part. They seem too defensive for their own good.
If you believe that the government's figures are flawed - which I don't really buy into, given the figures look bad on them - the 30,000 omitted new build homes still aren't enough to keep up with government house-building targets, surely?
"The HBF says that the housebuilding industry is 'rapidly increasing output'"
Yeah, right. Any actual evidence for this? The housebuilding industry has been criticised for good reason, no amount of whining and shouting "the figures are inaccurate, things are fine really" is going to change that. If the government and the housebuilders reach their target of 1 million new homes by 2020, I will take my hate off to them. Until then, massive pinch of salt being taken with anything they say.
*Hat. I don't hate them. I'm not that horrible and bitter (honest)
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