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House prices to rise 20 per cent over next four years says bank

Average house prices will rise by 20.1 per cent by the end of 2019 with a typical home then costing £236,691 according to BNP Paribas Real Estate.

The bank has been one of the lower profile - but more accurate - forecasters of the residential market in recent years. It says average prices will rise by 4.7 per cent this year although in London house price growth is set to slow to 3.7 per cent this year. That's less than one-third of the 12.5 per cent achieved in 2015.

The research forecasts that the strongest growth will be seen in the service sector-dominated economies of the south of England, with prices in the South East set to grow by 27.6 per cent over the four years from 2016 to 2019 to reach £373,773. The South West will rise 33 per cent to £291,184.

In contrast, regions with a relatively high exposure to manufacturing and the oil and petrochemical sectors are forecast to experience compound growth of less than 15 per cent, reflecting the economic challenges posed by weak global demand.

“London, where average prices are around 50 per cent ahead of their pre-financial crisis peak, will on average see relatively weak below-trend growth over the next four years. However, this masks significant differences in performance for London sub-markets, with some locations still experiencing strong growth” explains Adrian Owen, head of residential at BNP.

The average London home is forecast to see growth of 16.1 per cent from 2016 to 2019, with average prices rising to £529,660.


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