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TODAY'S OTHER NEWS

Academics warn of possible London house price bubble by end of 2016

London is heading for a house price bubble by the end of the year according to figures produced by academics at Lancaster University. 

The institution’s UK Housing Market Observatory - a quarterly report produced by the university’s Management School department of economics - says that if house prices in the capital continue at their current rate of 2.9 per cent per quarter, they will reach “price bubble-type behaviour” within the next 10 months. 

The latest quarterly analysis - which you can see here - says UK property prices have generally hit historic highs, exceeding even their peak pre-downturn values of 2007. In particular London house prices rose 11.6 per cent in the past year.

The institution uses terminology unfamiliar to most housing market observers and agents - for example, it describes the London market as ‘“exuberant.”

However, it makes clear its alarm at what is happening when it says: “The last time that Greater London real house prices were identified to be in an exuberant phase was the fourth quarter of 2007, while the last time that the ratio of London real house prices to London real personal disposable income was identified to be in an exuberant phase was the first quarter of 2007. However, it is interesting to note that the statistic has been increasing over the past two years and is currently close to its critical value, signalling prices could soon move to an exuberant level.”

The academics say there are no signs of this ‘exuberance’ at the national level, although those regions closest to London values - the Home Counties, referred to in the university report as ‘Outer Metropolitan’ - may also be vulnerable to a bubble. 

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    how many times have you published the same bloody article and title ? ZZZZzzz

    Algarve  Investor

    Doesn't make it any less true, does it? Do you not believe London is heading for a house price bubble? It's a serious issue that needs to be discussed. The fact that academics are now entering the discussion shows the severity of the situation, doesn't it?

     
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    Mr Algarve:

    ''The fact that academics are now entering the discussion shows the severity of the situation, doesn't it?''

    The answer you seek is 'No! it does not''

    (and i am not in denial about house prices one way or the other - before anyone says anything in that regard)

     
  • icon

    So what IS the 'Critical Value' referred to?

    Also ''if house prices in the capital continue at their current rate of 2.9 per cent per quarter, they will reach “price bubble-type behaviour” within the next 10 months''

    Noooo! Really?

    This University should also offer courses in ''Stating the Blindingly Obvious''.

  • Terence Dicks

    Where WOULD we be without academics eh?? Nothing quite like a little helping of mis-informed panic.

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