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The scores are in: 10 agents and analysts forecast the 2016 housing market

The scores are in: here are the top 10 high-end agencies and property analysts' predictions for what 2016 has in store in the UK's mainstream housing market.

As always these may or may not prove accurate - and we've looked at how well their forecasts for 2015 fared.

But they give food for thought, with a consensus predicting relatively modest rises in the mainstream market - possibly tempered by the prospect of interest rate rises.

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Countrywide

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 4.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.5% 

Lookout in 2016 for: If moving or investing in property, do the sums properly to provide a cushion for risks including rate rises, taxes and lending restrictions.

 

Savills

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 6.5%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate rises squeezing affordability, and more mortgage regulations constraining the numbers of people moving.

 

JLL

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 4.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0%

Lookout in 2016 for: The government must make its mark by empowering the housing industry to deliver more new homes.

 

 

Strutt & Parker

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0% again

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate changes will slow curb the wider market, but additional homes stamp duty may have greater effect on the few who encounter them.

 

Knight Frank

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 3.5%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 4.2%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.1% 

Lookout in 2016 for: More buyers and possibly higher prices in regional city centre, plus more volatility in buy-to-let activity as stamp duty rules kick in. 

 

 

Carter Jonas

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0% to 7.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0% to 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 3.4% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Areas with strong jobs prospects and close to good transport links will perform best, especially for investor-buyers.

Capital Economics

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 2.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: A shortage of housing could push prices up further but they are already high and upcoming interest rates should moderate further growth.

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.5% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Lack of homes on the market and too few new homes being built will keep prices rising next year and beyond. 

BNP Paribas

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 6.1%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.4% to 6.7% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Too few homes remains the central problem but interest rate rises or new mortgage constraints - or both - will dampen demand.

Halifax

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 3.0% to 5.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 9.7%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate rises will be gradual but they will put the brakes on price rises, despite weaker-than-expected supply of new homes.

  • Algarve  Investor

    All predicting further price rises to values that are already at record levels, even if these rises are more modest than 2015. This suggests that the supply side issue will not be sorted out and, rather than houses becoming more affordable (as the government is continually telling us), they will actually become ever more unaffordable and many more people will continue to be priced out of the buyers' market.

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