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Written by rosalind renshaw

Global banks have expressed their concerns over the British housing market. US investment bank Morgan Stanley has said that Britain’s housing market is set for a double dip, while Deutsche Bank said that UK house prices remain ‘precariously high’.

Morgan Stanley is forecasting that UK house prices will fall by up to 18% by the end of next year.

Its UK economist Melanie Baker said: “Affordability looks stretched and house prices look over-valued. We don’t think that a weak recovery in supply is enough to prevent a double dip.”

George Buckley, an economist at Deutsche Bank, warned house prices could fall more sharply next year when interest rates rise. He argued that UK house prices had fallen much less than in the US – see our story on DIsney prices –  and that they remained precariously high.

Meanwhile, Hometrack reported this morning that house prices have fallen across every region in England and Wales.

Hometrack said it was the first time this had happened since April 2009.

The fall, of 0.4%, is for the third successive month. Reporting for September, Hometrack said that in the last three months the volume of buyers registering with agents has dropped by 6.5%.

The survey of 5,100 agents also shows that properties are taking longer to sell, at 9.3 weeks.

Hometrack director of research Richard Donnell said that the “repricing” process would stretch well into next year.

But he said: “Talk of a double dip, with the implication that the market will see double-digit house price falls, is overdone despite the weak outlook for demand.”

Hometrack puts the average house price at £157,600.


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    Richard – presuming youre the normal Richard that normally posts on EAT then I wouldn’t normally expect to agree with you but whilst your comment was a bit harsh on Mr Davies you do have a point.

    There really is a little angry sector of the public that blame everyone but themselves for not owning a house, some that really go for it with a rant (2 perfect examples below) sound like swivel eyes loonies that think the estate agents, banks, and sinister dark corners of government have conspired to make their life hard(er)

    Now the truth is that houses are selling, there less estate agents around now so most of us are doing pretty okay with reduced volume– ill use the Knight Frank story as an extreme example of this and all is well – yes we are all half way through doing a three point turn in the oil tanker that is asking prices and many vendors have got a bit over optimistic by the surprisingly strong and robust market of late but we are getting there with them it just takes time.

    ……………so the message to the shouty ‘it will all fall by 90%’ lot is un clench a bit, if you cant afford a house because you don’t earn enough that’s sad but stop getting so cross – you wont shout the market down to your affordability so stop trying


    • 29 September 2010 17:07 PM
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    Wot a rant Robert! You must be renting, perhaps on benefits then!

    • 28 September 2010 11:45 AM
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    The banks are trying to force the Bank of England to do more Quantitative Easing. It gives the banks lots of lovely free money yet the public are too stupid to realise it is them that are paying for it. The UK public think that "recapitalising the banks" is something that is happening without them footing the bill for all the bank's casino losses.
    Saver's are having money stolen from their account every night when the now paltry interest amount is added.

    • 27 September 2010 18:34 PM
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    Good ... it's about time that prices came down to realistic levels, but most people are too stupid to realise this. There are too many vested interests, too many people conned into thinking their house is worth stupid money, and too many people using their house as a cash machine. Investments and mortgages are nothing more than a gamble ... you are gambling that the next 10-30 years will be stable, but nobody can predict the future! The government won't intervene with stamp duty holidays this time, and the Interest Rate is bound to rise in the next year or two.

    Let's remember that houses are for living in, and not "money for nothing". Many commentators are realising that the Ponzi mortgage system is at the heart of the crisis. What else caused this calamity?: Excessive prices, Liar Loans, and greed at every level of society. It's time for an almighty correction :-)

    I mean, what could possibly be wrong with the housing market as it stands?: A three bed semi for £250,000 in an area with no rail connection, and no parking?!? A two bed flat ("executive apartment") for £170,000 ... with a tiny parking space, and even smaller rooms?! This country is a basket case, and has deluded itself.

    Rip-off Britain .. will you ever wake up?

    P.S. Just think of all the extra money mortgagees pay on these inflated prices! That money SHOULD have been spent on the economy ... never mind :-)

    • 27 September 2010 18:09 PM
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    Isn't it about time the Profession stopped reporting these idiotic pundits and their guestimated non-regional forcasts about prices?
    By giving them the 'airtime' it is becoming self fufilling.
    They are talking the market down - just ignore them!
    (that includes EAT)

    • 27 September 2010 15:45 PM
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    Nice – I wish these people had spoken up before it all went splat, a bit of wisdom from them in 07 and we could have all saved a lot of time and effort – Melanie Baker and George Buckley both clever souls that have been with their respective employers for a long while, certainly pre crunch yet like all of us didn’t call it right before and unlikely to call it right this time…………….along with anyone else

    …………..and Jasmine – hi, you’re about 4 days to late on the number of people on line gag, another un funny person made it last week but as I said then, don’t worry its ‘crashed’ to 355 as I post this so I presume the double dip is off?


    • 27 September 2010 12:45 PM
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    Lend to first time buyers and then put up interest rates = a fair market without stupid price increases.

    • 27 September 2010 12:28 PM
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    WOW! 1,479 agents online! That's a record. Double dip here we come. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

    • 27 September 2010 10:42 AM
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    WOW, thats why bankers earn so much, they can predict things 6 months after everyone else has, unlike everyone else, the idiots could do something about it. Banks are intent on not lending. See who crashes, then they will lend to the survivors who pick up the unfortunates business who have gone bust. Maybe more should block up the banks doors like yesterdays Barclays episode.

    • 27 September 2010 10:12 AM
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    The writings on the wall and has been for some time. If this is right anyone who has bought in say the last 6 years won't be able to sell without negative equity for many years. So should agents now only be considering properties bought before this time as the core market of "saleable?"

    • 27 September 2010 09:51 AM
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