There was further evidence of stagnation in the UK housing market, according to July data released from estate agency signs firm Agency Express.
July’s month on month house sales were the same as June’s, just 0.1% down, whilst the number of orders for new For Sale boards slipped by 5.3%.
However, there were huge regional differences. Wales, the South-West and North-West all did brisk business in terms of For Sale signs converting to Sold, whereas sales in the South-East, North-East and West Midlands slipped month on month by up to 326%.
Stephen Watson, managing director of Agency Express, said: “Whilst housing market activity has been marginally lower in July than in June, the level of decline has been smaller than we would have historically expected.
“I suspect the slowdown in activity is partly due to the time of year, but also the continued consumer uncertainty caused by a slowing economy.”
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Comments
Unhappy: You think I agree with WHAT? You made no statement for me to agree or otherwise with - you asked a question to which I gave a perfectly reasonable and logical answer. You then asked for my prediction over a non-specific timescale ("short to medium term").
Okay - for what it is worth - here it is.
I don't see property prices doing much one way or another in the next three years.
The reasons for this view I have already given. I trust that as you agreed with them you will not need further comment in that respect.
That better? ;o)
(of course, my opinion is simply my opinion, and as such is worth thirty percent less than Jack...)
I think that means he agrees guys and girls!
Peebee.....you should be a politician!
Yes prices will be led my market forces that we cannot change, so where do you think these market forces are leading prices and turnover over the short to medium term?
Unhappy: House prices will continue to be led by market forces - as they have been since the first wattle & daub shack was placed on the market.
NOTHING that I, Realising Reality, you - or single person or group of individuals say or do will change that.
Buyers buy when - and only when - they want to and can physically do so; and they pay what they pay.
It seems we all agree!!! that must be a first on here! :0) RR and Peebee.......what do you think will will happen to house prices and why?
Realising Reality: Sorry? - I thought YOU were the man with all the answers...
Why don't you get one of those bespoke reports you were advertising a couple of weeks ago. You know - the ones you claimed were Land Registry - BUT WEREN'T...
Now, how did you put it again - ahh yes - "As an additional extra, if required, a five year future price forecast may also be obtained."
So - practice what you preach and buy a report. THAT will give you all the information you seem to need...
I thought the last time AE's comments were printed they were generally condemned as being nowhere near a big enough sample to be representative enough of the market to enable them to even comment seriously on a regional basis, never mind nationally.
I agree with AC and Rant here in both their comments. House prices at best will only bump along the bottom for several years mainly because of inability to borrow especially for first time buyers.
This is caused by a combination of lender's unwillingness to lend (or at least cherry pick), demands for very high deposits and above all, because of uncertainty over security of employment.
Rant's comment about pay rises or lack of them is a very significant factor for the rest of this year and next - at least.
My daughter has just come off a fix that was an awful mistake which she could not have foreseen and not because she was being greedy ort too clever either. Just lousy tioming. So she has been paying well over 6% for most of the past 3+ years.
I'll personally will be thrilled if interest rates stay low for ever - even though as in investor rapidly approaching (State) pensioner status and with a piddly mortgage I'd prefer very high interest rates and earn 8%+ NET on my investments.
But then I always was altruistic in my approach to life (despite what some posters seem to think of some of my motives!!)
They got the South East bit right!
AC - Who is the 'we' you are referring to in your last sentence? N'equity is of course only a problem for those trying to move.
I agree with your comments that house prices are going to continue their real price decline into the foreseeable future. This view is gaining coverage in investor type publications too.
However, if wage inflation doesn't outgrow price inflation, then that isn't going to lead to a rise in affordability and therefore transactions any time soon either.
A story on the BBC website today says that despite 5% inflation, 75% of workers have not had a pay rise this year. Ouch.
RR & UC & VoS
UK 10 year bond yields hit an all time low yesterday, which translates to institutional investors (pension funds, etc) believing that interest rates are set to stay low for the foreseeable future.
Inflation running at 5% (CPI at least).
Property prices dropping at 1-2% per annum.
Real terms annual reduction of about 6-7%.
This translates to a 30%-40% reduction in the REAL TERMS value of property over the next 5 years, but the £ value goes down by 5-10%.
Everyone can "cope" with a small amount of equity disappearing, after all we are all saving as hard as we can at the moment.
But we couldn't cope with the negative equity of prices dropping today by 30% as they did in the early 90's.
Have to agree - I can't see much room for increase, as if there is then inflationary pressures will lead to a probable rise in the base rate, softening any gains made
RR - I believe all the economic indicators mean prices will come down gently over the next 12-18 months......only increases in the base rate will cause heavier declines.
From standing on this plateau, does anyone happen to know which way house prices are going to move next, up, or down?
Given the global economic uncertainties, how might these affect the value of our residential property assets please?
Anyone?