Consumers have given a decisive clue as to why asking prices have been slow to register any decline – most simply do not believe that house prices will go down.
Indeed, more than one in five confidently expect them to go up.
Whilst Rightmove has finally reported a dip (of 3.1%) in asking prices within the last month, asking prices have still held up remarkably well. They are 1.2% up on a year ago, and at £232,144 are some £70,000 ahead of ‘actual’ prices reported by the Land Registry.
But while agents have been in the firing line for alleged over-pricing, a new survey –ironically by Rightmove, which frequently tears its hair out over the issue – goes some way towards solving the mystery of the reality gap.
The massive poll, of over 26,300 consumers, shows that two-thirds (63%) do not believe house prices will be lower in a year’s time than they are now. They expect them to remain the same or, according to 22%, to be higher.
Less than one-third (three in ten) expect lower prices – unchanged from a year ago.
Despite ongoing economic gloom, the optimism among consumers is almost universal. While Londoners are the most optimistic, with 29% of consumers expecting higher house prices in 12 months’ time, in Wales – the most pessimistic regions – only 35% are predicting price drops over the coming year.
A baffled-sounding Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, said: “The public’s belief in the value of bricks and mortar seems to defy the deteriorating economic situation. This is a clear message that the majority of consumers view the property asset class to be as ‘safe as houses’ in these times of economic uncertainty.”
He added: “It should be remembered that in spite of the overall confidence expressed in this survey for property prices, transactions volumes are still well down on historic norms. Economic stability in the UK and Eurozone will be needed before many are willing or able to re-engage with the property market.”
The survey did, however, reveal some extremely localised opinions.
For example, in the North-West 26% of respondents in Preston expect prices to be higher in 12 months’ time, compared with just 14% in Lancaster only 20 miles away.
Shipside said: “Local variations highlight how patchy confidence can be, depending on an area’s housing mix and wealth demographics.
“The wealthier middle-to-upper price brackets may be feeling fairly blast-proof from any further economic eruptions, and see a less turbulent outlook.
“Meanwhile, some of the more cash-strapped terrace and semi dwellers may feel far more exposed to the negative pressures of reduced mortgage availability and job uncertainty.”
Comments
As posted by an EA who doesn't know the difference between a deposit and a loan...
Added by rantnrave on 2011-12-07 12:30:56
100% deposits, not 100% loans. What would happen to UK house prices if it became illegal to buy a property with borrowed money?
You are correct IO - If everything plays out as dire as some of the predictions on the HPC site (and elsewhere), then feeding your family will suddenly become much more of a priority than analysing the latest Land Registry stats.
Those who have been barking on about a HPC for a while *should* have been putting their money where their mouth is and positioning themselves for such an eventuality. I have been working for several years towards putting myself in what I consider to be the best position possible for such a scenario.
Only with hindsight will the ideal position have become clear though - hoarding cash, holding gold, stocking up on tins of baked beans and ammo... who knows, even buying a property now and holding on to a physical asset.
Oh dear Sibley Rick and Rant you have missed the fundamental point.
Yes there are lots of reasons for not buying now, but the fndamental pointy is you may be able to and if you want/need to then get on with it.
Why - because finance may well be even harder to come by in the future - indeed we could all be back to a barter system to exist.
I'm not saying people should buy, or that now is a great time to etc etc. I'm saying if the reason you are not buying is to get an even better and bigger bargain i.e. lower price then you may well be right, it's all a gamble. Be a shame though to see rock bottom prices but no lender willing to lend against such poor security.
So when the ideal time has come along you can't capitalise on it. Not that there ever is an idseal time.
Puzzled...: "why have you decided that the 26,300 CONSUMERS that RightMove surveyed are BUYERS?
Surely (presumably) they are visitors to their site?"
followed by:
"So, what have we learnt. People who own property think the price of their property will not go down in the next year. Not really much of a surprise is it?"
Yup to all - except the last question which I guess should be answered by 'Nope.' otherwise I am disagreeing.
HOWEVER... let's take what you and I have said and break it down a bit. I think this needs some PeeBee statistical clarification...
CONSUMERS: BUYERS? SELLERS? Or BOTH?
I suggest there are three definitive 'camps' here - prospective BUYERS; prospective/current SELLERS who will then become BUYERS in ther own right; and prospective/current SELLERS who will not then go on to buy. I think we both agree that this will be a far smaller percentage - however in order to play fair we will keep the numbers constant and call it a straight third.
That being the case, then it only answers for one in two of the published numbers who are, according to you and others, deluding themselves that prices will not drop.
So - what about the OTHER third?
Of course - they will be the sellers-cum-buyers. Oh... hang on... now we have a statistical problem - you see they are actually TWICE the number, aren't they? They are one AND they are the other.
Bugger - swift recalculation... hang on...
Okay. They now form one half of the total. And the first category I analysed - they go down to one quarter.
You still with me?
SO - we had 33% being the 'Ayes to the right'. Now that figure is only 25%. The seller-cum-buyers then form a COMBINED 50% - so we now have 75% saying that prices will remain static or rise.
EH?? That can't be right, surely?
Rightmove (who of course are 100% reliable and totally unbiased in all their house price propaganda... I mean information provision... cannot be wrong - are NEVER wrong - so what's happened there?
AHHH - hang on. An old cynic like you (and one like me for that matter... ;o) ) has the answer.
It is simple. Of course... the price of THEIR property won't go down... but they will be banging a completely different drum when it comes to buying - and they will all join HPC (the second they sell...) so that it happens that much quicker and they can take advantage!
SO... make that only 25% then. That's better - we now have 50% of the 26,800 (ALL the SELLERS) being 'Ayes to the right'; and the other 50% (ALL the BUYERS) being the 'Nos to the left'.
BUGGER! We are missing sixteen percent. What do we do now? Can't sweep them under the carpet - not FOUR THOUSAND TWO HUNDRED AND EIGHTY EIGHT people, can we...?
Nothing else to I guess we'll have to agree - and you will have to admit - that a MINIMUM (and of course that is ALL you will ever admit to - the minimum number that crashes ANY HPC theory...) of virtually ONE IN THREE BUYERS concede that prices are going nowhere they would like them to.
Sorry and all that... ;o)
'fraid Rick beat me to it there IO, you have indeed just about listed every conceivable reason why now is not a good time to buy.
Another thing to remember is that wages and house-prices are still out of kilter. The most obvious yardstick is the increasing FTB average age.
We've had the decade boom and now the long drawn-out bust is unfolding.
@IndustryObserver
"...lending against an asset that has reduced in value over the past 3 years and looks likely to, albeit slowly, probably for the next 3 years?"
Your post on one hand says buy now on the other it gives all the reasons why you shouldnt buy - as prices are dropping.
Most people wait until after Christmas these days to buy upto 70% in the sales? Most people nowadays with access to Zoopla and Mouseprice etc can see that prices are coming down masked by inflation.
Ask any agent with a pile of offers on their desk at upto 25% less than asking price what a mess this market is in.
Even the most motivated seller a bank in possession is dumping off in this market (You can see this from the seven day notices going in they are hardly loads over the asking price sealed bid type scenarios?)
All the people with cash we know are sat tight watching in the knowledge that if they had commited over the last two years they would have lost a fair old chunk in this market.
The only people that are trying to talk the market up nowadays are just over exposed and over geared BTL landlords who were suckered into the "dream" everyone can see through it agents and buyers alike.
So why so callled "industry" experts come on here chanting the mantra of buy now there has never been a better time is beyond me.
Those green thumb garden business's sure do look attractive these days dont they? :)
You're looking at the individual picture there. House prices coming down would in the medium-term mean people are paying less of their income on mortgage (or rent) payments.
FTBs would not be the only people to benefit - those with growing families wishing to move up the ladder would need to borrow less money to move to a larger property.
This is extra money that could be spent in the economy, creating growth and jobs, instead of sitting in an economically unproductive asset like property.
Housing transactions would increase, supporting all the usual associated industries. British companies would also be under less wage pressure to give their workers an income which allows them to put a half-decent roof over their heads. This would increase the UK's competitiveness and again create jobs etc.
Couples would have more choice over whether both of them worked when children came along. In the longer-term, this would result in less teenage delinquency.
I could go on and on here. It's a win-win scenario for everyone from EAs who could sell more, to British businesses, families and taxpayers. The only ones to lose out would be downsizers looking to release equity and the money lenders. Even those at the top of the pile looking to gift their children with an inheritance wouldn't lose out - they would get less money for their property but their children would need less money to buy a place.
It all sounds so simple because it is. We've tried the opposite and it has lead to economic ruin.
OK probably too late for anyone to notice but that may be no bad thing given the opprobrium heaped on me last week by Ajax, but here is a question.
Can someone please explain to me why HPCers think constantly falling house prices are a good thing, and also why they think that eventually will make home ownership affordable for them? Maybe an HPCer with an ounce of logic would like to tell me?
The question of course assumes the delayed purchase is out of choice and waiting for prices to fall further, as opposed to not having a big enough deposit etc and being unable to buy now out of choice.
I ask because as opposed to delaying and delaying and delaying until the very last second on EBay to secure something, where it is just you and your bids, the seller’s minimum and the clock ticking, house purchase involves another party – the lender.
I have been saying for months, probably years by now, that this recession, slump, crash, correction call it what you will is totally different from any other any of us have lived through. And so far I’ve survived three others.
Why different – because the lenders are not lending, or at least not in sufficient numbers for volume sales to happen and not without the largest deposit anyone under 60 who has ever bought a house will have seen demanded of them.
All the recent statements (past few weeks) indicate not only is it going to get tougher generally financially, and personally I think next year could be horrendous, but the banks are going to be tightening their belts further and cherry picking even more. Why not if you are lending against an asset that has reduced in value over the past 3 years and looks likely to, albeit slowly, probably for the next 3 years?
They will want a bigger margin, more equity – which means a bigger deposit and lower LTV.
And income – unless you are gold plated, perfect credit history (and I mean perfect 100% squeaky clean) and cast iron job(!) that will work against you too.
So my advice to any HPCer who is buying for all the right reasons is if you can secure the loan you need on the property you want get on with it while you can, while the finance is there.
Anyone who thinks they are going to pick up bargains because of a further severe drop in prices in my view is mistaken, assuming that such properties are not all immediately taken by developers or Buy to Let Landlords, or above all that most attractive of propositions, cash buyers.
One tip – if and when you do buy imagine borrowing rates are 3% higher and make sure you can afford the payments at that level. That’s what we used to do 20+ years ago and didn’t seem to do our generation of borrowers any harm!!
PeeBee - why have you decided that the 26,300 CONSUMERS that RightMove surveyed are BUYERS?
Surely (presumably) they are visitors to their site? If you own a property at the moment and are looking to sell - most vendors will also be looking to buy as well. If you are a vendor who is selling who is not looking to buy, you probably won't be looking at Rightmove.
So, the question is, of the 26,300 Rightmove interviewed - how many already own (or part own) a property? If it was a random sample of visitors to their site - maybe two thirds of them were vendors/buyers. And, surprise, surprise - isn't that about the proportion that think prices will not go down?
So, what have we learnt. People who own property think the price of their property will not go down in the next year. Not really much of a surprise is it?
It's human nature. If someone with great gravitas on property matters pronounced 'House prices will go up 10% next year' - every home owner will think it applies to them. If the same person pronounces that house prices will go down 10% next year - homeowners will think it applies to everybody but them.
What will actually happen? A long slow decline in house prices - in real terms - seems inevitable - masked, to some extent (eventually) by some inflation.
.....don't see many agents doing re-listings or holding late nite ring outs advising vendors to increase the price of thier property............ rolls eyes
@sibley Do you live near the empty boarded up shops in Maidstone or near the empty boarded up pubs and clubs in what is the county town of Kent in the affluent South East? ;)
@PeeBee - :D
@Anyone who thinks EA's shutting is a good thing? This is one of the hardest working professions in the UK - seeing them closing and coming off the high street is not a good thing for anyone.
O-KAY. I reckon it's about time to bang on a barn door or two here, as no-one seems to be taking in what this story says.
"Consumers have given a decisive clue as to why asking prices have been slow to register any decline – most simply do not believe that house prices will go down.
Indeed, more than one in five confidently expect them to go up."
and continues...
"The massive poll, of over 26,300 consumers, shows that two-thirds (63%) do not believe house prices will be lower in a year’s time than they are now. They expect them to remain the same or, according to 22%, to be higher."
Brit..., Rick, dave (not that he will listen - in fact, NONE of the illustrious list will...) et al - here's the trick you miss.
This is not ESTATE AGENTS propaganda. This is RIGHTMOVE reporting what over 26,000 CONSUMERS are telling them.
Definition of a 'consumer' in Rightmove-speak:
BUYERS!
NOT sellers. NOT Agents. NOT EVEN ME.
Buyers.
Pesky buggers, eh? Who gives them the right to think - and voice the opinion - that YOU LOT are wrong?
@ @happy - nope keep trying you will get there in the end.
"Public refuses to believe that house prices have gone down"
Have they missed yet another big fall in prices today again then?
I think its safe to say house prices are going to keep falling this year and next. More people are realising it and most people are realising the economic situation is getting worse.
The housing bubble is burst which is a good thing for 1st time buyers. :)
Garth Timms: ""The unfortunate prediction is that 2,000 estate agents could close in the next 12 months."
That brought a smile to my face!!"
You utter, utter idiot.
Apologies to any idiots who I may have offended by associating this individual with them.
Rick D: I already commented that your responses to my scenarios were highly amusing. There is an old saying "You couldn't make it up..." - well I guess in your case that is untrue! ;o)
I think you are perfectly aware of what response I WAS looking for. The fact that you decided to get clever about it is your choice. I must say that in the first two scenarios you covered virtually every base of the supposed 'dark side' of Agency - for that I give you credit but worry that such shady methods came so easy to you to relate in such detail. Reminiscences of a past life you would rather forget perhaps?
HOWEVER, what you DID do, is to highlight a thought process whether intentional or not. And one which typifies the market as it is. Here's the thing. WHO says whether house prices are going up; coming down; or staying put? YOU say that they are coming down by your answers to my scenarios. WHY would a property, sold only one month earlier, need to be resold for less than it was sold for previously? You say that Zoopla etc will show a 10% decrease in one month.
The doom-mongering of one... of twenty-one - or a thousand and one, for that matter, will not make this happen. It already would have a long, long time ago if that were the case.
The market will do what the market will do. You, I - and everyone else are simply interested bystanders. Don't kid yourself that you can influence it in any way more than I can - or in any way more than Canute influenced the tide.
Rick - you say "I'm sure that anyone with a modicum of sense and financial nouse can see this for what it is, just the bounce before the the drop." Highlighting the collapse button of your entire argument, sense and financial nouse are WAY down the list of personal attributes utilised in the decision-making processes of homebuying and selling of the vast majority of people, unless doing so purely as a "short-term investment". Fine - the continued cries of "crash...crash...crash" might take that proportion out of the market, as they are nothing more than fair weather golfers anyway. The result - a smaller, more consistent market. Buyers young and old not having to jostle for position with these 'hobby' investors.
Let them concentrate on gold, which looks good round your neck but doesn't keep you anywhere near as warm or comfortable as a good roof over your head - does it?
Living with mummy then?
@ @Happy........My economic situation is fine but fyi I dont rent, I dont have a mortgage and I am not on benefits. Now as i said stick to quoting your opinions.
Ever considered that someone's economic outlook may pick up right now by them NOT owning a house...?
Happy Chap, that was for Sibley, sorry. If you cant afford a house now I understand you will have to rent. Best of luck if your economic outlook picks up.
Happy Xmas.
XX
That's wrong Happy Chappy. If it looks like the mortgage payments will be cheaper then the rent for the next two years, if Phil & Krusty say you cant go wrong and if calculations re one of you losing a job or a kid coming along can be put off, then you should always go for it.
With that minor decision taken, you can then get back to the important choices in life, like deciding who to vote for in X-Factor.
To Anon - An individual should take all circumstances and economic influences into account before deciding how to put a roof over there head and it may come as a surprise to you but choosing to buy a house and pay a mortgage is most certainly not right solution for some!
Dimwit Timmms, self confessed Pillock, this is only a week old on this site- keep up!
Monday 28th November 2011
This year looks set to have the lowest number of housing transactions in 40 years.
A total of 840,000 transactions are predicted, almost 50% lower than in 2007, and the equivalent of the average home changing hands just once every 26 years.
Garth Timms, that has to be a made up name no muppet would go through life with it, bet you hate your parents!
PS Retard could offend mate please think before you post as peolple do have such issues.
No ****off and grow up!
Sibley- But you will own it , keep paying the mortgage its better than having nothing and renting, unless on benefits. The dregs on here will be happy at any price fall but ignore the idiots.
To Dear Pillocks
"Take notice idiots, all your endless posts have changed nothing, still 800,000 have been able to do what you can't and have got their own homes this year"
Nice bit of over valuing there you retard estate agent, UK sales for 2011 have so far been about 340K
I live in Maidstone. Prices are down nearly 10% and I'm now in negative equity. When I bought in 2007 everyone told me you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar!
Dear Pillocks - Stop being a plonker (I know you do not need to google it) there is a difference between cannot, will not and have not.
so your link suggests 148% of gdp
this one suggests a lot more
http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/true-level-of-uk-government-debt-exceeds-%C2%A35-trillion
60% is rubbish
I could buy a house any time I wanted. I'm choosing not to because they currently represent poor value and show signs of being cheaper in the future.
Don't confuse those who can't buy at today's prices with those who wont buy at these levels.
Dave - UK national debt figures ...
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/
I do not read the Daily Mail. A cruel jibe.
Not been on site for a few weeks, glad to see nothing changes same idiots like Rick and rant trying to change the world or prove they are clever.
Take notice idiots, all your endless posts have changed nothing, still 800,000 have been able to do what you can't and have got their own homes this year.
Keep renting.
Google pillock- its you!
"The unfortunate prediction is that 2,000 estate agents could close in the next 12 months."
That brought a smile to my face!!
I meant well in excess of 100% of gdp
puzzled
japan debt has INCREASED since their crunch..doubled in fact and uk debt is absolutely not 60% of gdp...you must read the daily mail
true amount of uk government debt/gdp is estimated to be in excess of 228%.....well in excess
around 4 trillion pounds
in time uk will be attacked like italy and ireland
.......and this is from another topic from an Estate Agent.....
"2. Properties are overpriced by 20-30%
3. Volumes appear to be a third to half normal levels."
.....and this is from the National Association of Estate Agents article Dec 2011 ......
"The unfortunate prediction is that 2,000 estate agents could close in the next 12 months."
I guess the market isnt so bad after all eh PeeBee? ;)
Halifax data for November: -0.9% MoM.
Without the seasonal adjustment, it's down over 2% in the last month, with the average UK house price losing £3,500 between October and November, or over £100 a day.
@PeeBee
Trust me there is more pressure on owners of million pound stock outside of London than ever before.
We still haven't seen the wave of public sector cuts that will spill out a load of terrace and semi housing stock - devaluing BTL empires in every market town in England.
We still haven't seen interest rates rising on high end provincial properties that are mortgaged up to the hilt with vendors also trying to prop up failing business.
Once it starts gaining traction, we will see the systematic de-construction of a housing economy built entirely on make believe wealth - It has to occur because trade needs to be restored, first time buyers need to buy and families need to be able to move again.
It's a locked market due to parts being broken by institutions, governments and indviduals meddling with it for ulterior motives.
I'm sure that anyone with a modicum of sense and financial nouse can see this for what it is, just the bounce before the the drop. (No one would buy on the open market to lose 10/15% over the next 24 months would they? Again plenty have lost 10% over the last 12 months)
PS I take it that because you didn't respond back to my answers relating to your little scenarios that you are in agreement that, please dont ask me to respond to any more if you cannot be bothered to argue back .
PPS Do you all think HPC people are all BTL "investors" or something? Do you not think that many are experienced estate, land and commercial agents who know that the market wont unlock until it falls naturally and can see the market for where it is?
If mortgage interest rates go up sooner or later then watch the price of houses drop as those on variable rates are going to find it tough. Theres' just too much pressure on household incomes.
That's all the industry needs to worry about!
Dave: "some ill informed comment on here"
Indeed. Japan national debt - 228% of GDP.
UK National Debt - 60% of GDP.
Not much comparison really is there?
Times Up: Oh, dear. I make a statement, in response to your "...the one who holds the cash and makes the investment decision is king..." malarkey:
"ONLY APPLIES THOSE WHO SEE OR AIM TO USE PROPERTY AS AN "INVESTMENT".
Rest of the real world - couldn't give a shizzle about your HPC mantras..."
And you follow up with:
"Well EAs are still in dire trouble and their adherence to the well established facts of how the industry works are getting them no where.
I'm not an EA, so no skin off my nose how many go bust before the mentality changes. They can either take the advice, or get angry it was offered at all.
Retraining won't be that hard after all."
I repeat - oh, dear. And YOU expected better of ME earlier?
I have a vision of you sticking your thumbs in your ears; wiggling your fingers and blowing a raspberry when you pressed "Submit" for this one.
I dare you - tell me I am wrong...! ;o)
"...to be honest what I don’t know about estate agency trust me isn’t worth knowing..."
Blow away, Rick - no-one else will pucker their lips to your trumpet...
I have only one comment on your response to the scenarios I put to you - "Well done, Sir - VERY inventive and amusing."
" I think most people that read this site that don't live in the country known as prime central London
will advise you that the market is utterly fubared..."
So - 840,000 sales forecast only 2 weeks ago this year - EACH AND EVERY ONE in Central London?
People mustn't even be bothering to unpack...
"...and the sooner it is allowed to deflate swiftly and properly as it should of been the sooner every estate agent, mortgage broker conveyancer, board man etc etc can go about their day to day business without looking over their shoulders."
Seems to me that by being the unwilling part of your prescribed ubercollapse, a MASSIVE percentage of the potential buying pool will be unable to do so having massive negative equity at best; repossession or bankruptcy at worst, hanging round their necks...
Just WHO will be buying the million-plus homes that need to be sold to 'return the market to normality', Rick?
Come on - show me the REAL depth of your knowledge... so far I see a gushing overflow of merde de taureau...
"Over to you..."
Well EAs are still in dire trouble and their adherence to the well established facts of how the industry works are getting them no where.
I'm not an EA, so no skin off my nose how many go bust before the mentality changes. They can either take the advice, or get angry it was offered at all.
Retraining won't be that hard after all.
from Properrywire "And in China the latest figures show that in November prices fell for the third consecutive month in a row and are now 0.28% lower than in October and at their lowest since May"
Just set me wondering if like this site, they have HPC pillocks posting everytime rice or price is mentioned!.
@Puzzled, Ric, PeeBee et al.
You also need to figure into the mix, how many vendors "test the market" at some rediculously over inflated figure, don't reduce and don't sell.
These will of course also pump up the value of RM's figure, whilst having absolutely zero effect on the LR's.
@PeeBee :)
"I need to 'reload' your last sentence pasted above - "A house will only sell for what someone else feels it’s worth IF it is acceptable to the seller."
I did mention about the motivation of the seller - a distressed seller i.e. bank in possession probate/divorce vendor is clearly more motivated than some tyre kicker looking to upsize on the back of a windfall bonus or emigrate one day to NZ or sat on a load of NEGATIVE EQUITY (such a taboo phrase I know!)
"Let’s talk 'normal' market, Rick - none of this auction/distressed sales malarkey."
This is far from a "normal" market by anyone’s estimations
"My old cherry - 27 Acacia Avenue, Anytown, is sold at £165,000. What happens - and why - with the following scenarios, please...
1. 27 Acacia Avenue is reoffered to the market within a month due to the buyer being relocated. The property is identical to its last sale condition.
The property is offered at £185,000 because the vendor went with the agent offering the highest price to him (that is how they see it) the agent says we will start it at £185,000 to achieve say around £182 - £183,000 that covers our fees' I will arrange for young jonny our negotiator to come round and do the photos after all it will be him selling it so it’s important that everyone who is marketing the property so it’s important that he sees it. The agent then does the fee at 1.5% if you have a board up and do your mortgage though us (conditional selling) undercutting the other agent however he sneakily agrees a fixed fee of £2755 meaning that when the property finally sells at at £148,500 (due to the purchaser being able to see the sale price on Zoopla or Mouse Price and calculate that the house has dropped by 10%) the agents fee is protected and the ave % goes upto 1.86% - however more likely it sits there unsold due to lack of mortgage availability and demotivated vendor who was sucked in to buying at the top of the market like anyone has since 2002/3.
Luckily he works for a bank/insurance company who have offered to re-locate him so he can carry out the next lot of redundancies or launch the next sh*** financial services product that no one really wants or needs.
2. 27 Acacia Avenue is reoffered to the market within a month due to the owner dying. There was no mortgage. The property is in identical condition as above.
After the beneficiaries have stopped arguing the property is valued by 3 estate agents and the executor goes with the one in the middle to keep all parties happy at £145,000. Unfortunately the property deterioates over the winter period and despite asking the agent to make sure it’s checked weekly the pipes burst from the loft, wrecking the kitchen and the ceiling. The agent advises the Executor that the property needs to be re-offered in a price band of £130,000 to £145,000 - "if we can get the £145 for you we will cites the agent - whilst keeping his fixed at £2450 in the
knowledge that when the property actually sells his ave % will be protected. Okay says the executor - 3 months later its reduced to £130,000 OIRO the agent feeling the pressure to obtain a buyer nearing the end of his 16 week sole agency agreement agrees to go in with his developer mate down the pub to avoid any declaration of interest under the estate agency act. the property exchanges at an agreed price of £112,000 after the estate reviewed all the "estimates" needed to bring the property up to scratch. Within just 12 weeks the estate agent and his developer friend have agreed a sale at £175,000 citing all the "improvements" carried out.
3. 28 Acacia Avenue - an identical property in terms of size - is offered to the market within a month of 27 selling for £165,000. 28 is in better order, with new windows, kitchen and bathroom.
In a static market I reckon at £170 to £178,000 of course the market isn’t static is it?
4. 28 Acacia Avenue is offered to the market within a month but judged to be in worse order than 27, as 27 had new windows, kitchen and bathroom that 28 does not have.
In a static market offered at £155,000 what a bargain you could spend 10k and make back 20k the buyer asks the agent quizzically if it’s that good a deal why aren't you doing it? Well we can’t buy our own housing stock can we he answers honestly.
Now I know you are impressed with this PeeBee and to be honest what I don’t know about estate agency trust me isn’t worth knowing - I think most people that read this site that don't live in the country known as prime central London
will advise you that the market is utterly fubared and the sooner it is allowed to deflate swiftly and properly as it should of been the sooner every estate agent, mortgage broker conveyancer, board man etc etc can go about their day to day business without looking over their shoulders. Sure a few BTL "investors" will catch a cold but that was ALWAYS going to happen in this game.
PS What does rightmove care? an online subscription based property retailer that traditonal bricks and mortar estate agents have promoted and endorsed since launch clearly there are more Mugs in your office than just a timber and damp ones.
Times Up: "Oh PeeBee, you are better than that, better than resorting to the stock insult for HPC’ers on this website that they are young children..."
Not a stock insult. Purely for you - no-one else.
I enjoy many a conversation on this site with those who subscribe to the whole HPC concept. I find some of them to be vastly more articulate and intelligent than some of the Agents who frequent this site.
I was referring to your infantile attitude as clearly demonstrated by your "Whatever, dude" retort.
You want 2000 words? Let's have a go then with this little snippet of your post - "it is well known that the one who holds the cash and makes the investment decision is king, and the king must get what he wants or he ain’t parting with that cash."
In fact, no - let's not. I've already posted TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND if you care to look. I will stop it at a couple of sentences then you can come back at me.
ONLY APPLIES THOSE WHO SEE OR AIM TO USE PROPERTY AS AN "INVESTMENT".
Rest of the real world - couldn't give a shizzle about your HPC mantras...
Over to you...
For what it is worth, I think Peebee is correct on the discprepancy.
Nothing else is the factor....just what the two are measuring.
The fact it only takes a handful of daft asking prices ie £50m plus to make the average asking price a little on the high side.......especially when you type in London and see one development is listed at £50m with 30 plus agents, in fact one of them is trying to get £1m more for the complex.
Fair enough PoTW, the world would be a dull one indeed if we all agreed.
What's your take on the discrepancy then?
“Hmmm - so I am wasting my words on a nine-year old, obviously... “
Oh PeeBee, you are better than that, better than resorting to the stock insult for HPC’ers on this website that they are young children, if you want to insult me do it in your trademark style of a 2,000 word post addressing a strawman argument.
The point remains that it is irrelevant what EAs and former EAs think they know, because EAs are drowning by applying that logic. In any business it is well known that the one who holds the cash and makes the investment decision is king, and the king must get what he wants or he ain’t parting with that cash.
The pandering to what vendors think they want, but are sadly unaware they cannot have will not be a business model that deliver results.
I fully appreciate it must be madding doing a valuation for a vendor that does not want to hear reality, but that remains the issue nonetheless.
Rightmove's index is also not seasonally adjusted whereas the Land Reg is.
The latest Rightmove index covers initial asking prices during the last three weeks of October and the first week of November. The latest Land Registry covers details for properties sold during the month of October, but most likely at prices negotiated in August and September.
There's obviously a lag between the two sets of data.
I doubt these factors alone explain the size of the difference though.
Times Up: "Whatever dude..."
Hmmm - so I am wasting my words on a nine-year old, obviously...
Or a throwback.
Care to enlighten?
Puzzled: I have posted on this matter previously with MY explanation - allow me to bore you and others once more.
Firstly, RM reports on ASKING prices, not SOLD figures, which LR reports.
Secondly, RM reports INSTRUCTION prices. I firmly believe that this skews the figures by virtue of the fact that a far greater percentage of CHEAPER properties sell, than more expensive ones. Thus, the SOLD statistics are always going to be lower than the ADVERTISED. So far, no-one from RM have challenged this (not that I would expect them to... Their published methodology is far from incisive.
A quick check of RM today, for "London", shows the following: 2686 total properties; 2489 available, 197 "Under Offer"
The breakdown of these as follows in price band order, with U/O in brackets:
£0 - £174999 278 (18)
£175000 - £ 299999 824 (78)
£300000 - £499999 767 (59)
£500000 - £999999 484 (27)
£1000000 - £32000000 333 (15)
Looking at the 'middle' brackets, the numbers seem to amost cancel each other out. So - the important ones here are the uppermost and lowest priced properties - as these make the numbers what they are.
Obviously, there is only one or two properties at the lofty height of thirty two million quid. A quick tot-up seems to indicate the 'average' to be in the region of £1.8 million; whereas the 'bottom end' is probably around £145k.
SO - using these figures in terms of 'averages", you have 7% of sub-£145k properties showing as Under Offer as opposed to 4.7% of plus-£1.8million homes. A lesser percentage - therefore will affect the 'sold' figures to a lesser extent, I would suggest.
With regard to ASKING PRICES, here would be the situation:
an average ASKING PRICE of £1,055,536
an average SELLING PRICE of £???? - you tell me!
All we know is that, of the properties "Under Offer" I refer to, the average ASKING PRICE of them would be £892,723
That, by using this methodology alone, means the DIFFERENCE between the two is £162,813 - WELL OVER TWICE the RM quoted 'difference' - and that takes NOTHING into consideration for reduction from asking to agreed, which would only widen the gap further.
Not an exact science - but is food for thought is it not?
Feel free to check yourselves... ;o)
The Japanese public are currently bankrolling their govt's debt levels which stem from expanding public spending after their bubble burst 20 years ago.
With little to no welfare or benefits over there, they are prolific savers for a rainy day. Whilst that attitude may have disappeared during their boom years, it has long been ingrained in the culture.
The savings rate in the UK prior to the last decade was not especially significant. Interest rates being as low as they currently are is unlikely to change that trend much, especially with pay rises below the rate of inflation.
some ill informed on here.
yes the japanese are a nation of savers NOW but they were not in late 80's early 90's during their credit boom....they BECAME a nation of savers
whilst they did have the mother of all credit bubbles,I don't think we are far off ourselves and certainly when it happened in japan,they didn't find out the whole world had done the same thing.
Ultimately as houseprices fall,people will buy rather than rent,rents will fall dramaticall and buy to let will be the next financial disaster
people won't know what hit them
there is absolutely no reason why property prices cannot fall until wages increase substantially and that could take 20-30 years
The Japanese are a nation of savers. Although their govt owes massive amounts, the public have bought up their own govt's bonds at a very low rate of interest. That has allowed the country's economy to drift aimlessly without an intense crash.
The UK on the other hand continue to be a nation of spenders. Our government debt is bought by overseas buyers. If interest rates rise elsewhere and we need to sell more of our national debt, interest rates in the UK will have to rise to attract the finances. We will not have the luxury of 20 years to try and sort this mess out.
Sibley: 'PTW, with regards to the discrepancy between LR selling prices and RM asking prices I believe it's because they don't take into account subsequent reductions in asking price.'
Just don't buy that. In good times and bad, houses usually sell somewhere near the asking price. Around here 500k houses are going down to 450k - but then they are selling.
Only exception in my lifetime is 1988 to 1990 when house prices fell about 30%. House I bought in 1991 I paid exactly, to the penny, one third less than it had sold for in 1987. And that only happened in London and the South East (which is where the boom was) and national statistics for those years show falls of about 10% - 15%.
The idea that, on average, houses are selling for two thirds of asking prices is just wishful thinking I am afraid. Sure, you'll find examples of 2 bed newbuild flats in Manchester that sold for 200k and now they struggle to get 100k for - but they don't make the whole market. You'll find just as money selling for within a few grand of asking price. Mate of mine has had to reduce from £485k to £445k - dribbled down in 5Ks and 10Ks over the last 6 months - but he has a buyer now.
Dave - I wouldn't hang my hat on thinking we are going to have a 'Japan' like experience. While Japan has, as you say, experienced a long period of stagnation and deflation - this was set against perhaps the biggest boom in history, where the price of real estate - particularly in Tokyo - went so high that inter-generational mortgages were introduced - and 100 year mortgages. We have had a mad period, but nothing on that scale.
And, while Japan suffered on its own - this debt crisis is now global - at least as far as the USA, Europe and Australasia is concerned.
Now China and the rich oil economies are creditors and the yanks are debtors - and us and lots of others. Whose interest is it in to have a 20 year period of stagnation/deflation. Much better for everyone to have a period of debt consolitation and gentle inflation so that, in a few years the whole debt expansion nonsense can fuel the next round of growth.
Good for everybody.
No it doesn't PeeBee, no it doesn't.
I am sure that there are other bosses out there that are worth working for, but I have met very few over time.
I would love to be that type of boss myself, but have a nasty feeling that I probably don't measure up.
The problem is that I have never yet felt the urge to put any of my own money on the line to run my own business.
The rewards are there for sure, but so are the pitfalls (like now for instance).
Maybe I will wait till this is all over and think about being that inspirational business leader I have always wanted to be.
AC,
Spot on!
Always have hated targets, Everyone here is motivated by the wage packet!
PTW, with regards to the discrepancy between LR selling prices and RM asking prices I believe it's because they don't take into account subsequent reductions in asking price.
Sure, Hometrack state regularly that vendors achieve between 90-95% asking price but said asking price may have seen a couple of reductions before achieving a sale.
That's my take on it anyway, which of course indicates that the average initial asking price are - ahem - overinflated.
For those that don't already use it, get Property Bee installed (you need to make Firefox your default browser first) as it will show any changes to listings on RM that EAs make (including reductions in asking price or prop descriptions).
puzzled of tunbridge wells.
yes,the boe and others are desperate for hyper inflation,however,in japan(the only nearest example) they had 20 years of assets DEFLATION despite zero interest rates
In fact houseprices are still 40% lower(actual NOT inflation adjusted) than in 1991 and japans debt is twice what it was in 1991
I can see no other outcome than something near to this scenario
inflation plays out in higher wages,but wages are actually falling,so the 99% are being stufed from all angles
I simply think we are in for 20 years of depresssion
“The sooner that dullards like you get it through your concrete skulls by whatever means that "the EA community" works for THE SELLER, the better.”
Yawn..........
Whatever dude. I know that the EA works for the seller, but the important one in the relationship is the buyer. Until EA’s learn to follow the money they will continue to be crushed like they are now.
Anonymous Coward: Fully agree with your bromance theory - but you then smash your own argument with "I think that most corporate companies and a lot of independent agencies fall into this trap"
That doesn't leave an awful lot of Agencies, does it...? ;o)
Why is there such a discrepancy between Rightmove's asking prices and the Land Registry's sold prices.
One sees figures published regularly that say things like 'the average sale last month was for 93% of the original asking price' - and, in a typical market, properties do sell for typically 5% below asking price (to generalise a lot).
So why do Rightmove say the average price is £239,672 (October 2011) and the Land Registry say the average price is £159,999 (their website, today).
Rightmove list most of the properties for sale in the country - so their average figure must be a pretty fair average - the Land Registry figures cover most sales too - so, again, must be a fair average.
Can anyone explain the discrepancy - because anyone in favour of HPC can argue that the average house goes on the market for 240k and sells for £160k - which is, of course, nonsense.
So, why the difference between the averages?
“Yes the owner "gets the money" from the buyer, but the buyer "gets the property" in return so your point is utterly specious.”
Not at all. You see without the sale actually going through the owner does not get anything to pay the EA with.
In business the boss is the one making the investment or purchase decision. The EA and the vendor can be in the most wonderful harmony, but if the buyer is not offered something attractive he stays away keeping his money with him.
“The basic concepts of it are very well established.”
Its very well established that EA’s are in serious trouble, and they don’t quite fathom why. Maybe it’s time to revisit those ‘very well established’ facts and wonder if they are actually working for you.
AC. I appreciate you are comparatively speaking ‘one of the good guys’ as you are not an unblinking HPI loving wannabe-LL drone. But until your industry focuses squarely on where the money is, i.e. buyers, your continue to languish and go out of business.
Times Up: "Buyers who are on mass so disgusted by greedy vendors and pandering or overvaluing EAs that they stay away from the market."
Yeah - SO "on mass... staying away...", that a not-insignificant 840,000 of them are due to break ranks of being disgusted and buy a property this year alone...
"The sooner the EA community wakes up and realises that in these market conditions the buyer is the important one the better. EA’s don’t need houses to sell, they need to sell houses."
The sooner that dullards like you get it through your concrete skulls by whatever means that "the EA community" works for THE SELLER, the better.
Read and learn:
THE SELLER instructs the Agent;
THE SELLER decides the price - both that which to market the property at AND that which to accept; and
THE SELLER invariably goes on to be THE BUYER for another property - so using your dimwit logic "And any good business man will realize that the vendor gets the money to pay the bill from the buyer", PAYS A FEE ANYWAY!
DURRRR! Go back to school. You missed the common sense lesson.
Times Up...!
You have that wrong.
The buyer is important, they always have been and any agent that doesn't realise that will quickly go out of business.
The thing to remember is that one person pays the bill (owner) and one doesn't (buyer).
Yes the owner "gets the money" from the buyer, but the buyer "gets the property" in return so your point is utterly specious.
Estate agency is the oldest recognised business in the UK (prostitution doesn't count because they don't pay tax).
The basic concepts of it are very well established.
PeeBee - absolutely agree about income vs expenditure, but my point about targets stands quite well in an organisation that is "in touch" with itself.
Forgive the arm waving terminology, but using targets to replace quality leadership is a route to disaster.
If a member of staff needs training, then a good manager will know that because (s)he is taking notice of their daily behaviours, not looking at KPIs.
I have had several bosses that hide behind KPIs rather than actually just get to know their staff.
A poor manager can become an average manager using KPIs, but will never come close to a real, proper manager.
I think that most corporate companies and a lot of independent agencies fall into this trap.
The best thing about my old boss was that everyone wanted to work there and wanted to do their best. Not because of KPIs or because they were told to, but because he was an amazing boss.
Everyone gave 100% all of the time.
(Sounds a bit like a bromance...)
“Any good manager day 1 will tell their new neg recruits that the vendor pays the bill and the job of the agent is to get the best price from the best able to move buyers.”
And any good business man will realize that the vendor gets the money to pay the bill from the buyer. Buyers who are on mass so disgusted by greedy vendors and pandering or overvaluing EAs that they stay away from the market.
The sooner the EA community wakes up and realises that in these market conditions the buyer is the important one the better. EA’s don’t need houses to sell, they need to sell houses.
Rick Deckard: "Asking prices can do what they want it the actual selling price that counts at the end of the day. A house will only sell for what someone else feels its worth..."
Hmmm... you and I ALMOST agreeing...? ONE of us must be having a baaaaad day...! ;o)
I say ALMOST. Don't think I've laid down and am exposing my belly to you like a frightened dog, Rick...
I need to 'reload' your last sentence pasted above - "A house will only sell for what someone else feels its worth IF it is acceptable to the seller."
Thing is, Rick, if a seller CANNOT or WILL not sell for what a buyer is prepared to offer, then it simply won't happen. This is only untrue where circumstances overrule - 'forced sale' situations where the owner has no control over the outcome due to repossession etc. and your "what someone is prepared to pay for it on the day" scenario comes into play.
Lets talk 'normal' market, Rick - none of this auction/distressed sales malarkey.
My old cherry - 27 Acacia Avenue, Anytown, is sold at £165,000. What happens - and why - with the following scenarios, please...
1. 27 Acacia Avenue is reoffered to the market within a month due to the buyer being relocated. The property is identical to its last sale condition.
2. 27 Acacia Avenue is reoffered to the market within a month due to the owner dying. There was no mortgage. The property is in identical condition as above.
3. 28 Acacia Avenue - an identical property in terms of size - is offered to the market within a month of 27 selling for £165,000. 28 is in better order, with new windows, kitchen and bathroom.
4. 28 Acacia Avenue is offered to the market within a month but judged to be in worse order than 27, as 27 had new windows, kitchen and bathroom that 28 does not have.
Look forward to your response...
@Hawkeye
Sorry only just finished reading the entire list of responses.
What "initial fee up front"?
I know I'm letting not sales but if this can be achieved with Landlords as well as vbendors someone tell me how!!
When did it creep in that any vendor paid any sales agent any money before the sale had completed - and the agent then got paid by the solicitor? I know I haven't moved for 20+ years and this sounds like the estate agent equivalent of the lender's wanting a fee just for lending you money - how did the public ever allow lenders to get away with four figure application or "money reservation" fees.
Presumably in the rush to borrow money I suppose?!!
"....asking prices have still held up remarkably well. They are 1.2% up on a year ago, and at £232,144 are some £70,000 ahead of ‘actual’ prices reported by the Land Registry.
Forgive me and there are some far better statisticians and analysis interpreters who post here but asking prices could be anything couldn't they? Isn't it prices achieved that really matter?
"A baffled-sounding Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, said: “The public’s belief in the value of bricks and mortar seems to defy the deteriorating economic situation. This is a clear message that the majority of consumers view the property asset class to be as ‘safe as houses’ in these times of economic uncertainty.”
If Miles Shipside is "baffled" at least he now knows how most of his clients feel at the way his company treats them!!!
The key word here is "belief" as I'd say that is what this is all based on - hope and belief, plus a bit of necessity hence vendors insisting on unrealistic (and based on the £70K difference between asking and achieving) and unattainable objectives
Anonymous Coward:
"Your duty is to the client."
Correct. Go to the top of the class.
"BUT, if the client is foolish with their expectations then an agent can reserve the right to refuse those instructions."
INcorrect by virtue of the fact that, assuming you are referring to an initial take-on situation, at that point the person is NOT a client, but a POTENTIAL client. Otherwise correct - however those who are employed to GET INSTRUCTIONS will not go by that rule...
"The problem is that those targets keep forcing us to do things we shouldn't."
Targets are part of the business. Without them, measuring the performance of an office or an individual is difficult. In an office situation, this could result in closure if performance just 'happens' - with individuals how else do you justify training needs or even disciplinary measures if you cannot show past performance?
In a sales environment, targets are what keeps the business alive and awake.
WHAT is being targeted, as you say, matters most.
Targeting instructions is pointless if you do not have the tools or capabilities to sell them.
Targeting Sales is no good if the 'value' to the business of those sales is insufficient to produce a return.
The only 'REAL' measure is income vs expenditure.
And in THIS market, that is the one measure which causes most trouble to even the best...
T M - I had a vendor who when I valued they said to me, and I kid you not, 'the milkman said to me' so I said as he knows far more about it than I do I suggest that you use him and I put the phone down. Do you think its the same milkman?
RD - 'distress and auction sales' are low and the world and his brother knows it. Wake up sunshine. Howevwer I agree the sharp practice of still offering a property completed on moths ago is something to be outlawed. Try looking on the rentals side and see what those brainless dimwits do - you got it for over a year some of them are still being shown as let. Big trouble when you are tying to re-let something and the previous agent is showing it as let.
Finally - AC like the style of your old boss. Keeping it simple is good. No point offering stuff that's too expensive. I have been happy to follow the triangle for years and that is: right reason, right price, right fee. Get 2 out of 3 of these and take it on. If not tell them to go to the corporate who will charge an up front fee of several hundred quid which then becomes non refundable if you go elsewhere! Bunch of sharp practice sharks if you ask me.
Whatever you do do not start me on 'the property benefits from'. If you don't know I am not going to say but keep up the good work of slaughtering our language.
@ Trevor Mealham INEA on 2011-12-05 10:41:49
"RULE 1 - The vendor is NEVER secondary"
The vendor SHOULD NEVER be secondary.
That is my point.
PeeBee, FBA & Trevor
The "client" is the one who pays the bill, usually the vendor.
Your duty is to the client.
BUT, if the client is foolish with their expectations then an agent can reserve the right to refuse those instructions.
The problem is that those targets keep forcing us to do things we shouldn't.
An old boss of mine was very clever, the only target he set was banking. We knew the average sale value and fall through rate, but in the end the thing that mattered was CASH.
No KPIs for telephone calls, mortgage leads, viewings etc.
Kept it simple and achieved results. It also meant that I didn't waste hours per week collating figures (which I did at Sequence).
Asking prices can do what they want it the actual selling price that counts at the end of the day. A house will only sell for what someone else feels its worth and no amount of puffing up over priced new homes developments or ego massaging vendors expectations is going to sustain your business unless you are working your stock turnover in obtaining substantial reductions, rather than letting the property sit there and another agent getting instructed at the end of sole agency.
Look at the actual prices achieved compared to asking prices, look at how many houses experience a reduction prior to achieving a sale and look at the amount of physical transactions occuring. Distressed and auction sales are the most accuratel market indicator on what is actualy occuring, not mickey mouse asking prices on rightmove who continues to advertise property tht has been sold and completed on months ago for their "sharp" practice agent clients.
Once the banks start getting some liquidity in them they won't be so keen to be carrying the deeds on defaulting borrowers in this climate and the marekt will be awash with substandard low end housing stock that will drag the market downwards. Its over to you PeeBee ;)
Asking prices can do what they want it the actual selling price that counts at the end of the day. A house will only sell for what someone else feels its worth and no amount of puffing up over priced new homes developments or ego massaging vendors expectations is going to sustain your business unless you are working your stock turnover in obtaining substantial reductions, rather than letting the property sit there and another agent getting instructed at the end of sole agency.
Look at the actual prices achieved compared to asking prices, look at how many houses experience a reduction prior to achieving a sale and look at the amount of physical transactions occuring. Distressed and auction sales are the most accuratel market indicator on what is actualy occuring, not mickey mouse asking prices on rightmove who continues to advertise property tht has been sold and completed on months ago for their "sharp" practice agent clients.
Once the banks start getting some liquidity in them they won't be so keen to be carrying the deeds on defaulting borrowers in this climate and the marekt will be awash with substandard low end housing stock that will drag the market downwards. Its over to you PeeBee ;)
In other news, 65% of butchers polled suggest meat will be a good buy next year.
Trevor: "RULE 1 - The vendor is NEVER secondary. Any good manager day 1 will tell their new neg recruits that the vendor pays the bill and the job of the agent is to get the best price from the best able to move buyers."
What you say is 100% correct - in theory.
IF ONLY what you say was as true in practice...
And IF ONLY that same "good manager" kept true to those words when the screws were being turned to achieve the week/month/quarter sales targets...
Trevor Mealham INEA on 2011-12-05 10:34:13
"We had a milkman for 20 years who was an expert on house prices, never knew why he kept doing those early mornings. : -)"
A milkman for 20 years who was an expert on house prices who kept doing those early mornings??
Really Trevor come on...
How is the Missus by the way :)
Dave: "its highly probable that uk houseprices will fall to £90-£110,000 average over then next 10 years"
I would have thought a bout of global inflation was more probable. The scenario you describe would see the collapse of our banking system and economy.
One thing I have observed over my life is that things don't happen unless they benefit someone who is in a position to make things happen.
It benefits no-one if house prices fall 40% and take the banking system with them. So, slowly but surely, inflation - including wage inflation - will gradually take hold across the globe.
REAL QUESTION OF THE DAY...
Is 'dave' a real person - or simply (emphasis on the simple bit...) an automated spambot programmed to regurgitate the same merde de taureau every time 'price' is mentioned in a headline?
I just need to know because I don't see the point of responding to a bot - who couldn't be better titled - obviously knowing BOT ALL about pretty much anything...
*Ray - RULE 1 - The vendor is NEVER secondary. Any good manager day 1 will tell their new neg recruits that the vendor pays the bill and the job of the agent is to get the best price from the best able to move buyers.
Figures, figures, figures. Land reg is factual. No one states if the RM figures are based on available prices (reduced), or tags on listings that have gone from available to u/o - sold stc.
Also on RM who placed the prices, ie agents who went inside the property or agents 200 miles away virtually. Big difference in going in locally and valuaing at a distance which also questions PMA. But maybe also the NW vendors tell their agents the marketing prices in the first place.
We had a milkman for 20 years who was an expert on house prices, never knew why he kept doing those early mornings. : -)
its highly probable that uk houseprices will fall to £90-£110,000 average over then next 10 years
but they will not 'recover' until wages start rising.
Its entirely possible(ala japan) that in 20 years time houseprices are still around £100-£110,000 average
That will be after the next financial disaster....the collaps of buy to let
Maybe the public are right. There is more than one way of seeing this...
Mr Shipside and Rightmove are an advertising and information company. They require TURNOVER and that means Estate Agents staying in business paying them. They will do and say everything they can to achieve it.
First time buyers obviously want the lowest prices possible and will always try talking the market down.
Estate Agents require TURNOVER to stay in business. They require instructions.
With this in mind the vendor can become secondary.
Poor old property owner – relying on the ‘professional’ to advise them FULLY.
(There are many reasons why, or why not, to sell at particular time) The agent should ascertain the vendors REAL reasons to be able to advise properly. How many agents when ‘valuing’ would say, when appropriate, “my advice is that you do not HAVE to sell – so I suggest you could wait a while”.
Most just want the instruction. An enhanced valuation at the outset – yes. A few weeks later they talk it down. It could be said that agents eventually talk the market DOWN to maintain TURNOVER.
As said before, society does not owe agents a living.
As Fun Boy Agent says – the market will find its own level eventually so a lot of owners, depending on their personal circumstances, could/should be better off staying put..
Were people really voting in this survey for what they expect, or for what they want?
The proportions just about match home ownership so maybe they were describing what they need?
“the 'one sided' HPC brigade spouting their opinions on this EA site”
Turns out those opinions were basically facts though. It also turns out that no matter how much some EA’s may despise ‘HPC’ers’ they really should take note about who has been right all along and start listening more. Some EA’s could learn a lot.
Excellent and informative tips.I like your post and it really gives an outstanding idea that is very helpful for all the people on web.
Anon,
There are no 'sides'. it is a market, the market will do what all markets do, it will find its own level.
What is not necessary are the stupid comments from the 'one sided' HPC brigade spouting their opinions on this EA site. Agents will service the market whichever way it goes, up, down or steady as she goes. As agents we need to know how the public feel, both buyers and vendors. Those are the sides if there are any.
Too many people reading the Daily Express!
For a long time now people have been warning on these boards that prices would fall. Many angrily claiming that they would not. A few even getting extremely vicious and personal in their attacks.
Well as it turns out selling prices are in a crash, but asking prices have remain steady. So I suppose both sides have something to celebrate.
And why is this news? most vendors have been like this for as long as I can recall
See, it's not the agents' fault...
Try and talk reality to vendors like these and they promptly instruct the next liar agent through their door.
Ask a vendor "Do you want the truth?" and they will of course say yes.
When you tell them the truth they promptly use the agent that works out what they want to hear...
How I just love my job right now!
Come on vendors.......time to wake up and smell the coffee