Estate agents’ branches are selling less than one new property a week each – the lowest level of new listings ever seen.
Just 36,433 properties are currently coming on to Rightmove per week, the lowest recorded in the ten years that the site has been measuring the market.
Rightmove’s monthly survey, out this morning, said that by contrast, there is a record level of search activity, with 44 million property searches in the first ten days of this year, up 27% on a year ago – but with home-hunters facing the smallest-ever choice of new listings.
But the listings drought does not mean prices are going up. Asking prices on Rightmove now stand at £224,060, barely changed from a year ago (up 0.4%) and down just 0.8% on last month. Furthermore, asking prices are still way above actual selling prices – currently averaging just under £160,000 according to the Land Registry.
Rightmove director Miles Shipside said that many of those searching for property on Rightmove have become ‘online junkies’, pouncing on each new property.
He said: “This search addiction is in part caused by each estate agency branch currently listing less than one new property a week, an all-time low and around half of pre-credit crunch levels.”
He said that the “low transaction volume pit” would be hard to escape from, without more mortgage funding becoming available.
Even in London, new listings are down 12% on a year ago – although London being the special case that it is, the shortage is predicted to fuel further rises in asking prices.
If London is taken out of the equation, then asking prices in the rest of the country are down 1.7% in the last year. In London, they are up 6.1%.
Shipside said that old records were being shattered by the sheer number of people searching for property. “Were a larger number of mortgages available to the market, the interest, confidence and necessity to buy would lift the current muted sales transaction numbers from the virtual subsistence level of the last three years.”
As well as less new property coming to the market, there is also less available stock already on the market, says Rightmove.
Average unsold stock per branch is 66, the lowest for nearly two years.
Shipside said that in difficult times, success in selling now required careful analysis of each micro market. A ‘wishful price punt’ would not work.
He said that in areas of over-supply of ordinary properties, sellers would have to cut prices or improve their appeal.
Shipside said: “Sellers that cannot or do not offer a special deal are likely to find their homes left on the estate agent’s shelf. There is a mass market mortgage desert, parched of funds.”
He said that in order to sell, some vendors would have to accept a financial hit that they were unwilling or unable to take unless absolutely forced to.
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Comments
Happy Chappy,
I just hope a few of the points raised here will encourage our colleagues to think a little about the consequences o the megaportals, and the intentions of there owners towards our industry,
'fear ,complacency, ignorance or laziness'
For mostly the same reasons we as a society remain at the mercy of, those we pay to serve us, who believe they are there to rule us. Notice how whenever an election is won how quickly they change from pleading 'to be allowed to serve the nation' to boasting about being 'in power'.
And do not forget the dehumanized psychopaths who seem to be controlling / driving the banking industry.
Mike From Ludd.
I think you are referring to the man in the mirror.
@MIke
So i think we broadly agree....due to fear ,complacency, ignorance or laziness the EA community will reamin at the mercy of the megaportal.
@ POD
"More appropriate term would be the greedy,over leveraged stupid morons living beyond their means who thought the sun would shine forever" agreed many are just like this...i politely called them the overextended
The unfortunate I refer to, are those who lose steady jobs due to decisions beyond there control, who go on to be long term unemployed and end up losing there homes.
Mike
"PS. Very interesting article in the guardian [money section 17/01/2012] ‘houseprices blog’ its called confessions of a Rightmove addict, has some interesting data, and a telling point for all agents…….I suggest all give it a read, it is online. "
I think all estate agents should read this! The vast majority of buyers today do a lot more research before purchasing a property as the tools are more freely available.
Buyers are looking at property for months even years before they are ready to view property and make an offer and you will be suprised at how many of them read this site too.
£80 million of estate agency commissions in the RM coffers.
@Happychappy. "Not surprising with pricing falling (outside london) vendors dont want to sell.....record low interes rates and lender forbearance means they dont have to.....If/When this changes and without changes to the demand factors, sadly we will see an increase in forced sales.
This may be good news for cash buyers, btl, the HPC crowd and estate agents but bad news for the over extended and unfortunate. "
Hmmm.the "Over extended and unfortunate". More appropriate term would be "the greedy,over leveraged stupid morons living beyond their means who thought the sun would shine forever"
Are you that bloke from Frome.
He was called Mike, had a real nasty attitude and a chip on his shoulder.
Happy Chappy.
I don’t know why but when I read ‘welcome by the agents only’ I find myself smiling.
By ‘welcome on all sides’, I certainly don’t wish to alienate the groups you mention, whoops just fell off my chair laughing.
For The buyers ; No megaportals, just industry friendly portals, they can still sit in the old armchair and surf, many would not know the difference or care, as long as they can see what they are looking for, conveniently with minimum fuss.
Remember they are not lazy, just canny!
Of Course our industry can stop the Megaportal takeover, just stop using them, if everyone just cancelled their subscriptions and withdrew permission for them to use the photos we provide [copyright infringement].
Their response; Go straight to the vendors and invite them to list directly, then either sell the instruction on to local agents, if established agencies refuse to cooperate, then they will have to establish their own network.
Either way the revenue drops significantly, the capitol needed to rejig the business might not be readily available as the returns are not now as attractive.
But this won’t happen as a lot of agents now feel tied to the megaportals, and are actually frightened to try working without them as they feel they just cannot generate enough business on their own. Others are just plan greedy and will keep feeding the Megaportal crocodile until it turns and devours them.
There are other ways, some ethical, some unethical and some downright illegal, but I assure you that any website anywhere on the planet can be shut down and it’s domain seized; have you seen what the self styled American internet police are up to?
Part of my business involves renting and selling properties, so you could say I am also an agent, and no I have never used a portal, any portal, to list any property I rent or sell. Many of my colleagues do and I have had so much negative feedback, I have never even taken up the free offers, I think the best so far is 1 year unlimited uploads free from Zoopala.
And remember, the bigger they are the harder they fall.
PS. Very interesting article in the guardian [money section 17/01/2012] ‘houseprices blog’ its called confessions of a Rightmove addict, has some interesting data, and a telling point for all agents…….I suggest all give it a read, it is online.
Dont wory I have been called worse!!!
"This approach would be welcomed on all sides"
I dont think so IMHO it would be welcome from the agents only.
It would not be welcomed by
a) the share holders of the portals who want to not only make healthy profits but maximise them (just like you),
b) the so called rogues who want a bit of the industry pie, c) The buyers - Who dont care they just want to look for as many properties in the ist and easiest way without moving from here chairs
d) The vendor who wants to sell without using an agent to mimimise costs
But you are right these megaporals are no longer there to work with the industry they are there to exploit or replace it. There is not a lot the EA industry will or can do to stop it!
Are you an agent do you use them?
Pardon me,
I meant Happy Chappy.
Happy Harry.
My first foray into work was away from the family business [property] and in computing, I worked as a hardware engineer / designer and took part in several innovative projects. I am all for new technology and welcome the general improvements to our way of life the web has brought.
There is a place for true property portals, they can benefit landlords, agents and our customers…if they are developed and used with co-operation in mind. Designed as a tool to aid the industry, portal owners make should make money from Ads, the way most landing / listing sites do. I have no objections to them charging a SMALL service fee to participating agents, they could also ask for certain qualifying criteria [to stop those rouges we all detest] so only genuine landlords / agents can make use of them.
This approach would be welcomed on all sides and would help to move us forward and could be a boost to revenue in these challenging times, and create a healthy profit for the portals. Its called working in partnership, and would be generated by agents for agents. I know there are a couple out there trying this, but they need support, our support.
However these portals [I discuss here, I will call them Megaportals] are not a part of our industry, they do not rent, sell or manage properties, they are listings sites, [think Craigs list]. Which is another industry entirely.
They are not there to aid us or our industry, they are there to profit from it. The initial sales spiel promised something like I described earlier, but as soon as enough of us leapt onto the bandwagon, they started jacking up prices. Then they became loud in the industry, forever producing reports, jumping in whenever they can and pontificating about industry matters, they are becoming the accepted voice of our industry, those wise old sages who know it all sitting in on regulatory bodies, influencing decisions that affect our day to day business., but they speak for themselves not for us.
From being an ancillary service, they are now an influential body but have nothing to do with our industry except charge us to list our properties!
And to them we are cash cows, not partners.
But now these Megaportals are in the public mind as part of the industry, It seems that the logical next move would be for them to use their name to issue franchises, so instead of being Joe Bloggs independent estate /lettings agent, for a fee you become Joe Bloggs Megaportal agency, their advertising drives business to you as they are in the public mind as large trustworthy organisations. And if you want to keep the business you will keep paying the [ever increasing] fees.
Vendors will be encouraged to contact them directly, you the agent will be notified of potential instructions on your patch, you do the work make the sale and Megaportal take a percentage of each sale.
The same model would work for lettings, tenants calling a central number which is then routed to the local Megaportal office [of course they monitor you], again you do the business and they take a cut from your commission. And if you cannot afford a Megaportal franchise, well someone local will and if you think business is dismal now just think for a minute how things would be if one of these Megaportal franchises opened round the corner.
Ask the convenience store owner who has just had a Tesco express open nearby !
MIke - you may do well to be wary of the mighty property portals....they have, are and will continue to change the industry.
EA's allowed this to happen they only saw the short pros not the long term negatives. You "think the contribution they are making is disproportionate to the amount of money they are leeching"
Many of he benefits that these portals provided have long been forgotten and the alliance has turned sour.
However just like in boxing the big un will nearly always beat the littleun.
A quick question.... presumably you are a landlord...In this capacity would you be happy to see the back of ALL property portals?
All you need to do is keep paying your RM fees (21% increase on the way this year) andlap up the press releases they spout, because they are BIGGER than you.
Ed, Joanna and Miles are stripping £80 million of EA commission from the industry, but this is not enough, they want more.
Brace yourselves... they will take it, and there is nothing you can do about it
OMG PeeBee
Disinformation coming from Rightmove, please tell me it is not so and restore my faith in human nature:-)
Maybe, just maybe, some will actually investigate these all too common 'reports' to ascertain their validity before citing them.
I have found the majority as you describe, falling from the rear end of a bull, and unfortunately many of my colleagues are lapping it up.
Well - sorry to be the one to have to point out what no-one else seems to have spotted - but the whole thrust of this article is based upon MDT - 'merde de taureau' as you know it better. And not just ONE error - but two!
Secondary error: - "Estate agents’ branches are selling less than one new property a week each...". Actually, it is INSTRUCTIONS that are running at less than one per branch per week; NOT sales.
The glaring error, however - "Just 36,433 properties are currently coming on to Rightmove per week" - is actually the MONTHLY figure!
Trust me - if it WAS correct, and the "listings drought" kept up all year - then a smidgen short of 1.9 MILLION new properties would be offered to market. And considering the market is supposedly sliding along on its belly with only 800,000 or so sales in a year, when you add to the above the million or so that started the year still on the market I reckon there'd still a bit of choice for homebuyers - so they don't need to rush out and buy three...
Interestingly, here's a quote or two from the January 2011 RM report:
"Property coming to market at its lowest level since January 2009"
"Average weekly numbers of new listings are running at 9,159..."
Hmmm... weekly figure quoted in 2011; MONTHLY in 2012. Wonder how one compares with t'other?
MY guess is that there's a less than a gnat's chuff of difference - but Mr Shipside needs some element of sensationalism to appear interesting - as anyone who has met him will confirm!
Mr Shipside wants to watch his statistics - and EAT want to watch their reporting of them... ;o)
Hey Happy chappy.
it's called irony, nothing at all to do with EA, just a wry answer to a comment.
Not to be taken seriously.
I am, very wary of the property portals and believe they are having a detrimental effect on our industry. For having this view, some believe it is OK to chuck insults around or indulge in childish name calling.
I think the contribution they are making is disproportionate to the amount of money they are leeching out of our industry.
I ask, what new money making vehicles [for us] have they produced, to enable us to pay the ever upwards fees they charge.
Where is the money coming from to pay these fees, when we see commissions falling through the floor and every other cost going up.
At first all seems fine, more leads better business....for a while, remember when joining a Ponzi scheme you always get paid well those first few months.
Now Rightmove is telling us that less properties are being listed that equates to less leads, so you commit to increased portal costs for less reward.
Meanwhile behind closed doors the biggest shake up in residential property marketing and renting takes place with the secret transformation of hundreds of independent agencies into Rightmove franchises.
Sound far fetched, the political move have already been made, if I owned Rightmove it is exactley how i would move and dominate the English & Welsh residential property industry within 5 years.
Is that the same rantrave that suggested making borrowing to buy property illegal? Yep.
If you mean me, then not guilty, that is moronic and would need a complete change in the worlds economic structure.
Use my own hard earned dosh to purchase properties, are you kidding !!!!!!
My money is stashed away. I use it to lever your dosh out of the investment sector, invest in property / land make a profit and add to the cash pile. If it goes tits up, good old chapter 8 comes into play [alright it is a lot more complex than that but i am not conducting a seminar here]
Its called investing to make a profit, borrowing to buy at an agreed fixed rate over an agreed period [simple interest] not the BTL scam mortgages that limits profit and allows the lender too much control over your investment.
I then plow a portion of the profits into development programs into areas of extreme deprivation, providing decent social housing and basic infrastructure development. I do this on the ground to avoid the corrupt officials, which plague these areas.
BTL is there for one reason only, to squeeze even more of your hard earned cash into the bankers pockets. They buy yachts and laugh at those less fortunate than themselves.
I believe the mark of a civil society is how well we look after those less fortunate than ourselves.
Now instead of making inane remarks, tell me how you obtained property for rental before the invention of buy to let?
Not surprising with pricing falling (outside london) vendors dont want to sell.....record low interes rates and lender forbearance means they dont have to.....If/When this changes and without changes to the demand factors, sadly we will see an increase in forced sales.
This may be good news for cash buyers, btl, the HPC crowd and estate agents but bad news for the over extended and unfortunate.
P.S Hey Mike "I am too busy trying to achieve something worthwhile, some contribution I can make to humanity which needs no funding". Interesting how does this relate to the EA industry?
We had this conversation last week Brian, or have you forgotten already? You couldn't actually explain where I had said borrowing money to buy a property should be made illegal. Do we need to copy & paste all those comments from me (and others) again here to remind you - it seems not only do you not understand at least half the comments on this forum, you have an incredibly short memory too.
Tell us Brian, what would happen to UK property prices if there was no money for people to borrow? You seem so hung up on this, yet can't offer a single word in response.
Just think, all the time you've spent reprinting a comment you never understood could have been spent studying for your first GCSE.
Is that the same rantrave that suggested making borrowing to buy property illegal? Yep.
BTL portfolios:-)
BTL Mortgages, another con you fell for.
What did you all do to obtain rental properties before our beloved banking industry dreamt those up?
Any one care to get back in ya prams and post something relevant to the stor
2012-01-17
Is this place full of morons who don't check anything before they open their know it all diarrhea filled gobs?
Zillow is an American site based in the US, I am familiar with it due to my business interests in the US.
I am asking you to take a look for comparison to Rightmove, Zoopala etc.... You cannot use it for UK business so it is irrelevant here apart from the comparison to UK portals.
One of the interesting things is that in combination with Yahoo this site can access a [worryingly] massive amount of demographic info. Using Zillow as a start point can get highly sensitive information about Neighborhoods, streets, home occupants, families, local trends and so on.
All too Eagle Eye for my liking.
The US property market is different to the UK. Briefly; It is heavily regulated; 2 year apprenticeship before you can seek to become a Realtor; qualifications are needed and a clean record ; also the criteria change from state to state.
I have for a very long time been in favor of a similar system here.
Ahhh all is clear now just another spambot who wants us to look at another site.
Blah Blah blah, spivs and snakes, but here is one I like.
Askthehomesearch. com is another oner with similar users
@Chris
I don't have a BTL portfolio but I know numerous estate agents in Swansea who do so - several have 2 or more and some have much more.
Part of the problem is valuations is that an estate agent with BTLs in Swansea is absolutely petrified that the value of their BTLs will fall dramatically in price, so you can make your own assumptions about the valuations they give to sellers.
Five or Six years ago rental properties in Swansea were very rare. Today there are hundreds and hundreds - you can make your own mind up about what that says about the market also. A colleague tells me that he thinks that the BTL market is on the verge of collapse, with many people who have tried to sell their homes, and failed, now putting them up to rent.
I read in the press about this Euro crisis and the possibilty of a shock that will shoot interest rates up - if that happens then I can only imagine what carnage it would cause to the housing market.
By the way..
Anyone here use Zillow?
If not take a look
Where do you live I want to pitch my tent on your lawn.
How about I give you a 1 month trial just to see what you are missing
There isn't a personal attack in that post from @Mike
Oh so.
'Rather than destroying the industry Portals have simply given people like you something they crave, something else to bich and moan about.'
Is not a personal attack, but an insightful observation, based on historical research, character profiling and personal knowledge of me and my business.
As is Bill Anker esq's equally inciteful comment,
['Nepotism has obviously given you advantages in life that would, given your people skills, normally be denied to to people like you.]'
Bill knows me so well, sussed out that I am a rotten people person on the basis of a couple of posts. Well done I have an HR company which could make good use of your innate profiling skills.
How dense of me not to acknowledge the vast mental prowess of my esteemed colleagues; I am too busy trying to achieve something worthwhile, some contribution I can make to humanity which needs no funding.
Strange how the majority want to be financially successful, but criticize those who do achieve it.
By the way neopatisim rocks, ask young Kim Jong-un or young Wills, or Beyonce & J Zees new baby.
I pointed out that this is an old established family firm with many years successful experience in this industry, which does qualify me to comment on this issue. Am I now to be derided because my precursors worked to benefit their family, just as I work to benefit mine. And as for my contribution to the business, well they all seem happy enough.
Or do you believe that working for your family is somehow wrong?
Then give it up, sell your house and give the money to Charity and go join VSO.
By the way neopatisim rocks, ask Kim Jong-un or young Wills, or Beyonce & J Zees new baby.
Back to topic....Q.Just how many reports to Zoopla, Rightmove etc.. put out each year.
A. Enough to convince people they are part of the industry, not just parasites.
The basic idea and driver in the march of technology is the concept that more (or even the same) can be achieved (this is the making of money of course) by fewer people, thus making those driving and owning the concept very rich indeed whilst those left behind are not given a second glance by the rich.
Ed, Joanne and Miles intend to take over the residential property industry entirely, leaving just scraps for specialists.
They are fabulously wealthy already, but they want more. They want your business, and they will get it. They will stop at nothing, but you won't notice the transition. You feed the wolf that will eat you, mistaking it for a friendly puppy dog.
As soon as you can, stop using rightmove and save yourselves from this beast.
Brilliant idea, Free listerine for all new users, today only offer!
I have to chuckle at people who think that achievement is all about money.
I roll on the floor at people who take credit for other people's achievment. @Mike refferred to you and not your family, Nepotism has obviously given you advantages in life that would, given your people skills, normally be denied to to people like you.
There isn't a personal attack in that post from @Mike,
At least you spared the family name from your insightful posts
It is spats like this that make EAT great!
Wow,
debate of the Luddites.
Grip yer wallet, rightmove rep alert, he is outside your office now!
@mike from ludd wrote:
' vile johnny come latelys? Would you feel a bit embarrassed if you found out that some of them might have been in the industry a tad longer than you?
Then lets look at what they have achieved in the last 20 years. A bit more than you I would guess.
Rather than destroying the industry Portals have simply given people like you something they crave, something else to bich and moan about.'
mike from ludd
You cannot join in a civil discussion, but have to launch a personal attack, shows you have no real argument!
Would you feel embarrassed if i told you that my family has been dealing in property for 8 generations on 4 continents and between us we have a few hundred years of experience?
No of course not because ass's like yourself are very quick to shoot off your mouths about things you know nothing about; like my family's achievements over the past 20 years, of which in the US alone generate more than the combined profits of all the UK property portals combined.
I am making a valid point about leech industries, those who arrive with smoke and mirrors, interject themselves and begin pumping money out without really providing anything at all, and only result in detriment to that industry.
When you finally wipe the bedazzelment from your eyes, and try thinking instead of spouting reactionary bile, maybe you will see the light. But then again people with your mentality usually end up as Moonies, or Scientologists or similar, because you believe everything you are told by shiny people and research nothing.
I on the other hand have more than enough experience and acumen to see through these shysters, what they are doing and where it is leading, and have contingency plans in place to deal with whatever they do.
This is why our business's has been around for a couple of centuries and will be here for a few more.
I just hope you don't work for Rightmove as your description of agents who don't use portals is rather telling.
Incidentally my Ancestors put the looms into the mills.
@bob
Your right Bob, it doesn't look good.... It looks GREAT!!!
Weren't all you estate agents doing so much better when properties were 4X wages, instead of 7 or 8?
Or are you worried about your BTL portfolio....
vile johnny come latelys? Would you feel a bit embarrassed if you found out that some of them might have been in the industry a tad longer than you?
Then lets look at what they have achieved in the last 20 years. A bit more than you I would guess.
Rather than destroying the industry Portals have simply given people like you something they crave, something else to bich and moan about.
There are agents with no internet presence and no fancy computer system, easily recognisable by their C plate Austin Metro Vanden Plas, Skanky Burton suit, Halitosis and a miserable life.
What a pity you can't smash up a Portal like your ancestors did the weaving looms.
We have so far had more instructions Year on year - up by 14.2% - maybe we have just been very lucky.
Just 36,433 properties are currently coming on to Rightmove per week, the lowest recorded in the ten years that the site has been measuring the market.
So every property for sale in the UK 'comes to Rightmove'?
At least they are making money off these properties, whether sold or not they just keep on charging and racking up the profits.
Anyone who has read my previous postings is aware of exactly what I think of these property portals, unneeded parasites who have skewed the industry, bled out our profits and taken customers away from our offices.
Now these vile johnny come latelys set themselves up as the gurus of the property industry, pontificating and advising an industry they are systematically destroying.
I dont need Rightmove to tell me how my industry is performing; didn't need them 20 years ago when people used to actually call, visit the office, have a cuppa, establish a relationship and be able to look at a selection of properties. I remember when we used to sell to just one family member, they like us and the rest of the family, and the generations that follow would keep on using us.
Today they view the same property on rightmove etc... listed with umpteen agents, call everyone to see who gives the best deal; no rapport, no warmth, no customer care.
Next Rightmove etc.. will take instructions directly from vendors to site, have a fixed fee for handling the sale and kill us off completely.
@rantrave
So twice the number of houses are coming on the market than sold last year?
Then there is all the 'old' stock that did not sell last year or the year before.
What is the economy worses, as many think it will, and we see an increase in that number of 36,000 houses coming on per month. Throw in a European banking crisis, that will include every UK banks, and there will be no money to lend for mortgages.
This does not look good for UK property prices.
"Just 36,433 properties are currently coming on to Rightmove per week..."
Which works out at 1.9 million a year, or roughly twice what was sold in 2011.
"Just 36,433 properties are currently coming on to Rightmove per week, the lowest recorded in the ten years that the site has been measuring the market."
So - NOT "...lowest level ever seen", then...
Sensationalist title for a VERY ordinary article. Make something out of nothing at any cost.
CoTW, you're mistaking causation with correlation.
@Puzzled of Tunbridge Wells
The way that valuations are going currently, in order to get the work on the books, a 3 bed semi in Swansea will be have an asking price of half a mill in a few years.
There is too much over-valuing going on IMPO - one firm over-values to get work, then the next firm over-values the other firm. If you get 4 or 5 valuations you end up with the most silly of asking prices and, if you are the first to value a property, you get some irate seller ringing you up a few days later complaining that your fair valuation was way too low.
The market is so distorted now that I fear many sellers bringing their houses on the market now will simply sit there for most of 2012 if not longer. They will feel smug that their house is on for X but have no idea that it will simply not sell anywhere near it.
Concerned of Tunbridge Wells wrote: '... after all the hpc crowd have been telling us for some time that lower prices would lead to an increase in activity for agents.'
Lower prices will lead to an increase in activity. But prices down a few percent when they need to halve to make property affordable for the next generation will not have any effect.
Come on, admit it, you are between a rock and a hard place. Prices must and will fall over a number of years so the next generation can afford to buy. But still you cling to the idea that people simply aren't able to borrow enough and still you have to outbid other agents to win business. Must be soul destroying to have over priced houses sitting there week in, week out. You have won the business but now the vendor thinks you're a tool because there are no viewings. What a way to make a living!
Concerned of Tunbridge Wells wrote: 'The only solution to this problem is to get lending moving again, and all EA's should be lobbying their MP to that effect.'
Given the lowest bank base rate in 300 years most young people cannot afford to buy property - and this has nothing to do with the large deposits currently required.
Young people in many parts of the country have been 'priced out' for years now - and their place in the market used to be taken by the hordes of Johnny come lately BTL 'investors'.
In my area making 100% mortgages available will not suddenly make a 3 bed semi at £275k suddenly affordable for an average family on average incomes.
And what happens to those sucked into the market now if you get your way and, somehow, gravity is defied and more (printed, made up, backed by nothing) money is dropped into the system - when interest rates go up. A mortgage for most people these days lasts them all their lives - the days are long gone when people bought a 2 or 3 bed house when they got married and paid the mortgage off over 25 years. No, house prices had to go up and up and up so people had to start with studio flats, and worth their way up through a couple of flats and a terrace before they got to a semi.
A lot of people on here - and don't forget globalization means real term increases in wages are a thing of the past - still don't understand that in many parts of the country houses are about twice as expensive as the next generation can afford and, slowly but surely, prices are going to adjust. In the meantime, low transaction levels is the order of the day - for the next 20 years or more probably.
Erm, the two posts before were from HPCers and highlighted a couple of issues with your theory.
I see you've chosen to respond to neither of those two points...
The full report states that since the New Year, supply is down and asking prices are up. As SBC says - if you're so confident of your theories, increase the asking prices on all your stock by 5% and tell us in six months' time how that's been for business.
I did think there would be more posts on this topic today, after all the hpc crowd have been telling us for some time that lower prices would lead to an increase in activity for agents.
Yet here we are with prices having dipped slightly in the last year and new listings have fallen to a record, all time, low.
And unsurprisingly, the hpc crowd is largely absent from the discussion.
As has been said before, if this industry wants to survive in anything like it's current shape, falling prices are the worst thing that could happen. Listings and supply dry up, and transactions then fall off a cliff. Prices then rise of course, but the damage from low transactions has been done.
It happened from 2008 to early 2009, and it looks like it's happening again today, as Rightmove point out largely due to the mortgage famine.
The only solution to this problem is to get lending moving again, and all EA's should be lobbying their MP to that effect.
..."But the listings drought does not mean prices are going up."
Actually, that's not quite the case. From the RM report itself:
"January often sees the beginning of a ‘spring bounce’ in the asking prices of properties coming to market, and there is again evidence of this with an increase of 1.4% in the first week of 2012."
The full report is particularly wordy this month, twisting and turning through all sorts of scenarios:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/01/january-2012.pdf
Jolly good CoTW, the solution is obvious isn't it then?
Bung a few grand onto all your listings and they'll be flying-off the shelves in no time. Bish bosh bash job done.
Honestly, I should be in consultancy work.
Decmeber is always the lowest month for instructions by some distance, so no surprises really.
New business dropping? Less on rightmove? Rightmove better put their fees up again! They need to look after the shareholders' pockets.
I'm not seeing this at all. Perhaps I've just got off to a flyer, or perhaps it is reflectant on my hard work in the tail end of last year, but so for this year I'm listing lots - not 2006 levels, but so far this Jan I've listed exactly four times more than I'd listed this time last year. Mostly reasonable at prices too.
Did you know that if you check your properties though rightmove plus, your clicks are added to the overall stats for the properties. Rightmove are not inclined to fis this glitch - can't think why?
Another view...............!
After reading the latest maze of statistical offerings from, among others, the sellers of advertising space (including RM and Z) I have consulted my own private Crystal Ball.
During 2012 there will be little change in the current situation regarding prices and volume. In 2013 “Supply & Demand” will show itself, mortgages will become more available to FTB’s and the prices for established well maintained property (generally closer to amenities, larger than new and with good gardens and parking) will at first stabilise and then gradually rise. Not ‘boom’ time and not immediately higher than inflation. In view of this those who do not urgently have to move should consider staying put for a year or two thus adding to the shortage of supply!
Wouldn't it be fascinating to know what proportion of ‘Hits’ to RM every day are we estate agents keeping tabs on the market?! My local paper just announced a rate rise too
(like everyone else except us), is this replicated in other areas? I wonder how NAEA/ARLA renewals are going too! Not the most wonderful of businesses to earn a living on these days is it?! Cheers, Big T.
So, prices dip slightly again, and new listings fall to lowest level in history.
Imagine that.... Falling prices lead to lower supply.
Just like happened in 2008/9, and just like I told you would happen on these pages a few months ago.
Am I the only person in the industry with GCSE Maths? it seems that someone is double counting something. The figures do not add up! Actually they do add up but to a very different figure to the ones we keep being given by various PR and Marketing departments.
Then the thing that is being counted, hits, clicks, unique visitors changes on a month by month basis.
This month it seems last mnth unique visitors has changed to "property searches"
60000 divide by 44,000,000 (Assuming RM are the fountain of all sales) = 0.13% succes rate
It takes 733 RM enquiries to generate 1 sale? Funny? yes, The truth? No!
Intresting to see how searches are always up,didn't result in more sales last year, its hard to understand why?, but I think one answer may be that like me people are useing Rightmove as a streetmap,were ever I go I always go on rightmove to find a location whether visiting customers or buying off ebay,its a easy web site to use.