UK house sales slumped in June, according to an on-the-ground survey.
Estate agency boards firm Agency Express says that both house sales and new For Sale listings took a backward step, each making double digit falls.
The number of houses where For Sale boards converted to Sold June fell by 13.7% compared to May.
However, it is not unusual for house sales to fall in June as this has happened in five out of the last six years.
It was a far from uniform pattern across the UK: four regions had an uplift in monthly sales in June while others experienced significant falls.
The North-West had a really good month with a 26.3% increase in monthly house sales, as did Scotland, where the number of houses ‘Sold’ rose by 17.7%.
House sales in Wales were up 8.6% and in the West Midlands 2.8%. In the East Midlands, sales remained at May’s levels.
The heaviest falls in house sales in June were in the South-East (-18.8%), Greater London (-15.9%), Yorkshire (-14.9%) and the South-West (-14.8%).
Leicester was the city with the greatest increase in monthly house sales in June with a massive rise of 55%. Three other cities experienced an increase – York (20.4%), Newcastle (14.9%) and Milton Keynes (8.5%).
Across the UK, the number of houses that were put up ‘For Sale’ in June went down by 10.2% compared to May.
Again there were significant regional differences over the number of new ‘For Sale’ listings. Greater London was up 3.4%. However, the North-East saw a dramatic fall of -24.4% and Yorkshire saw a fall of -19.2% fall. In the South-West there was a drop of -16.5% and the East Midlands was down -15.1%.
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Comments
@Ric
"THEREFORE making his/her own mind up that they can afford to buy!"
You must remember my comments can be a bit 'tongue in cheek' and should not be taken too literally.
However, how can a young (naive, financially illiterate) young person make their own mind up when they have estate agents, lenders, every TV channel, every property supplement in every newspaper, the front page of the Daily ****** (as regularly as clockwork) proclaiming 'house prices up' - all telling them they must get on the ladder - must extend themselves as far as possible because property is a one way bet etc.
Hey, don’t worry about all this ‘our board man says’ stuff.
I have been doing some research and I can tell you that the number of houses for sale is up a bit on last year…….
You see one of my mates lads is a paper boy and he’s been delivering the property paper round here for a while – he says that his bag is a bit heavier than last June as the paper is a bit thicker and has more pages, he even said that he can feel his BMX leaning a bit more towards the side his bags on.
Now, correct me if im wrong but this is proper grass roots / from the horses mouth market data and I think it’s a solid bit of research.
I did ask him what his medium term view was on the number of properties for sale but didn’t get much out of him, just a bit of a grunting noise – he was at a really good bit on Call Of Duty so I left it.
Jonnie
Hey Ray Its only a nic..and an ironic one.... I realise what a lucky man i am and life is good :0)
And hours of posting, chest thumping, being clever, has achieved…………..nothing, what a waste of time! Want to buy, buy, want to rent rent. Ends.
@Unhappy Chappie
I am so pleased not to be as unhappy. ;0)
@rantnrave
Another chart! ;0)
You will probably accuse me of something but I have had eneough of this "ping pong" and I will agree to differ.
The End
(For now)
sorry my last post was for Mike!
Dare I suggest that if a FTB or anyone decides to walk into any one of my offices He OR She might be choosing to do so without a hook having been cast around their neck! THEREFORE making his/her own mind up that they can afford to buy!
You seem to forget......buyers are called buyers for a reason......they buy.....it always seems to come back to some crazy notion that EA's make people buy houses!
Mike look at your mate FTB Dan, he will not buy a house, yet calls himself a FTB, odd really as he has no intention of buying as he admits himself therefore is a WNB (will not buy, an applicant most EA's would file in the round basket under their desk!) most if not every FTB registered on a mailing list with an agent who is actively viewing and offering on houses has made that decision that they feel they can buy and it is safe in their mind to atleast explore what choice they have......
CHOICES everyone has them!
Ray - in response. Liked your summary style, so I've nicked it.
1 - nitpicking
2 - nitpicking
3 - am surprised that someone with the years of housing market expertise you refer to from time to time was unaware. Here's one chart from the Nationwide to help you. I could post many more...
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-ftb-average-house-price-to-earnings-ratio.php
4 - was Mrs. Evans earnings a factor in your mortgage application? Would she have needed to have worked during the entirety of the mortgage for you to keep up with the repayments?
5 - agreed. And that price has been rising quite spectacularly in recent years.
Ray - you are so far detached from reality and your maths are so poor... its unbelievable.
Most FTB's particularly in the south east are unable to save a deposit on 2 years gross income let alone by saving so called disposbale income.
Lets do the maths and keep it simple
1. A 5% deposit is not sensible for banks
2. avg price of 1 bedroom flats in the south east lets be optimistic and say £150K
3. avg salary of FTB lets be ptimistic and say 16K
4. avge deposit required 20% = 30K
For UK based FTB'ers Prices will either need to correct quickly or stagnate until wage inflation catches up!
Ray - I'm sorry Monkey tennis hit the nail on the head and he is a fellow EA and a lot more informed one it would seem!
@rantnrave
Para. by para.
1. You did not read the words 'or so'
2. Again, you did not read the words 'or so'
3. I was unaware that FTB properties were increasing by that amount - they would seem to have levelled a bit..
4. Cannot remember the actual figures but my new wife and I rented (a poky place) for 4/5 years, saved and did very few of the things mentioned in my last post during that time. Your guess is wrong, it was very difficult but we had a goal that was worth it. It was not that much different from today.
5. I do not suggest they waste money - as I said they have a choice. Deserving home ownership? Not everyone can and It comes at a price.
AceofSpades & Wardy have valid points.
Looks like this will be coming true ...
http://comedyfiles.tv/video/estate-agent-infestation-stewart-lees-comedy-vehicle-bbc/28272
Ray: "save for a year"
Hmmm. The average deposit needed to buy a house in this country at the moment is roughly equal to the average salary (before tax). How do you expect FTBs who wont even be on that salary level to save the amount required in just 12 months?
From experience, I can tell you that saving £500 a month when FTB properties are increasing by £800 a month is thorougly demoralising.
Would you like to share with us about your first purchase, how many times your salary you had to borrow and what % the deposit was of your annual income? I think I can already guess that it will be far different from today's scenario.
You are suggesting that a certain percentage of young people today waste their money and are not deserving of home ownership. Can I also suggest that a certain % of the Boomer generation have no idea how much greater the challenges that young people face in buying a property today are compared to 40 years ago.
"125K for a one bedroom house is a ridiculous price and for young fist time buyers on below average wage it is also unnafordable given the huge inflation in the basic essentials. "
So you want a 2/3 bed house that is slashed in price, to allow below average earners to make their purchase. These types still wouldn't be able to pay £125k back if that was the price for a 5 bedroom house....not everyone can or will afford to buy a house.
Perharps your 'caring' and 'good natured' attitude should be directed to making sure all the people of this country are clothed and fed and that the homeless have homes!
Bravo Wardy...........
"FTB's on this site seem (from their posts at least) don’t want a typical FTB type property. You want to be 3 or 4 runs up the ladder from the off. Maybe that’s where the problem lies."
Everyone should rent, no-one should ever buy again.
That should sort out this 'chat room' and get things back to a forum.
Dan - if you are mortgaged to the eyeballs as you say then the banks can not be expected to lend more you more therfore they are being sensible.....the reason you cannot jump to the next level is that it is priced out of your reach......Why do you want upsize anyway do you need to or just want to?
@Ric
"Could you tell me when I should advise the next FTB who walks in my office to buy?"
Certainly. When he can sensibly afford to. When the amount of money he needs to borrow does not mean he is hamstrung by mortgage repayments.
Certainly do not advise him to put a noose of debt around his neck on the basis that 'house prices always go up' and that, in a few years, he will think it was the best thing he ever did.
Likewise advise him to consider the future ... is his job secure ... could he afford the mortgage if interest rates doubled (and moved back towards their long term average) .... does he hope to have children one day ... will he be able to move up the housing ladder at any point through increased earnings (rather than increased debt) ... will his wife be able to take some time off work to raise their children ... or is 12 hours in a nursery an acceptable price to pay .... etc. etc. etc.
@FTB Dan
What were they doing until aged 38?
Possible answer: Holidays (£1000 per week away?), Cars (maybe second hand £5000+ on the 'knocker' plus running costs - lost half its value in a couple of years - if silly eneough to buy new - much more), Drinks (most nights £3 a pint)
Does not apply to everyone but work that out over a year or two especially if it applies to a couple..
Alternative: Save for a year or so, like the generation you decry and buy your first poky place - but you are on the ladder. I realise times change but usually it is a matter of choice and anything worthwhile must be earned?
Ric... "the next FTB who walks in my office" ... so presumably you're talking about a hypothetical situation then ; )
@ Mike you say "I really do think that anyone encouraging young people to buy into the current market must be from the dark side".
Could you tell me when I should advise the next FTB who walks in my office to buy?
Thanks.
@Monkey Tennis
You wrote: 'Young Negotiators these days arent on a lot more, £16k for arguments sake. That flat would now sell for £125,000. Deposit required £25k for a decent rate. To be affordable as it was in 1995 that flat needs to come down to £48k, a drop of 62%'
And, let us not forget that young people are being encouraged to buy property when the base rate is at an all time low. What happens when mortgage rates increase.
I really do think that anyone encouraging young people to buy into the current market must be from the dark side.
I think Monkey Tennis you make my point brilliantly. Over the last ten years house prices have tripled, wages have remained largely flat.
Given that was the decade of debt, and the world cannot support anymore debt we will now find ourselves in a decade of austerity. It seems house prices will either fall a lot, or wages will rise a lot. I am not certain which way round it will be. However, I am certain that with the absence of debt to bridge the gap the house price to wages ratio will contract over the next few years.
Wardy, I admire your entrepreneurship in starting your own agency. I started my own business several years back (not an EA) and know how tough those first few years are when you have that hump to get over. I sold mine just before the 2008 recession began while the market was still doing well and went back into the professional world, although I still think a lot about going back into business myself at some point.
@ FTB
I am an agent and I can symapthise.
I was lucky enough to be born in 1972, so in 1995 (age 23) bought a 1 bed batchelor pad. My income at the time was 12K per annum as a young negotiator, purchase price £36000. Deposit at 5% was £1830.
Young Negotiators these days arent on a lot more, £16k for arguments sake. That flat would now sell for £125,000. Deposit required £25k for a decent rate. To be affordable as it was in 1995 that flat needs to come down to £48k, a drop of 62%.
Having said that 1995 was the trough in the market, the flat was worth £60k when bought for new in 1990
I will correct you Dan,
I’m 33, live in a small 2 bedroom flat that is mortgaged up to the eyeballs so I could start up my agency, I probably have about 20k in equity if I’m lucky. At the moment I can't jump the next run of the ladder due to unreasonable lending criteria being that I am of course self employed despite the fact my partner is a well paid teacher.
A decade's worth of dinner party chatter about how wonderful rising house prices are is coming home to roost - in the form of adult children not leaving or returning to their parents' home or grandchildren not appearing.
Wardy, whenever I speak to chaps of your generation I usually discover that they bought a flat/maisonette or some such in their early working life, they then bought a small family home in their late 20’s, and finally a proper family home in their mid 30’s where they usually stay. Please correct me if this was not your experience.
Today the average FTB is 32 with parental assistance and 38 without. It is perhaps unreasonable to think that a FTB of 32 or 38 is going to want the same sort of pokey property bought by your generation when you were in your early 20’s. More likely, they want the type of property bought by your generation at the same age, if not the number of house purchase made.
At this rate people won’t be starting families until they are in their mid 40’s, unless you happen to be on welfare of course, and is that really what we want for this country, all for the sake of maintaining high prices.
Please do not be so quick to dismiss Rays opinion. Like me he dealing with this on a day to day basis. Talking to lenders, talking to the buying public, dealing with solicitors and seeing sales through. FTB's on this site seem (from their posts at least) don’t want a typical FTB type property. You want to be 3 or 4 runs up the ladder from the off. Maybe that’s where the problem lies.
Ray - I disagree with you 125K for a one bedroom house is a ridiculous price and for young fist time buyers on below average wage it is also unnafordable given the huge inflation in the basic essentials.
The second time around FTB's - I.e normally people who have spilt from there partners often need a property larger than a single bedroom and even when earning closer to the average salary these are also unaffordable.
With this group income is often taken up suuporting the estranged families etc.
It would appear that the banks are bearish on house prices due to the fundamentals not lending themselves to House Price Inflation. So they are requesting larger deposits and checking ability to pay....very sensible if you are a bank I think.
@FTB Dan - F Fortescue-Smyth - Mike Hunt
Thankyou for your reaction - very much appreciated.
Added a little spice to the comments.
However, O.K. money lenders were doing silly things for a while but I survived for nearly 40 years in this business and with respect I do not agree with you. People are not stupid. Land is finate. Inflation is a fact of life. As with all things if one does, or has to do, a deal at the wrong time it has consequences and some will suffer. Those who do not have to place their property on the market at the present time have nothing to fear. Buying property is a long/medium term decisiont.
The problem is still mainly the money lenders - they caused the problem, matters became over heated and the public are currently paying for it. Things will even out.
Ray, had prices remained stable, at their long run average I personally would have probably bought a flat in my early 20's.
Now in my early 30's and married there is not the slightest chance I would buy a flat. Its either a family home, or I rent a family home, a flat is a non option. I suspect a whole half generation of buyers will simply bypass the flat market.
Nor do I find your point about finance to be true in my case at least. I do have a good career, and a good credit rating, and indeed a good deposit; but I have been offered an obscene amount of money. I have been offered 5.5 times on an 90% mortgage. Far more debt than I would be willing to get locked into.
In my opinion the only problem is high prices.
Ray, I fear you have lost the plot a little. It's not a money lending problem, £125k for many of these flats, once you get used to the fact the world has changed, looks simply wrong. If we are to get back to the classic FTB profile, anything over £80k on current salaries looks optimistic.
The fact we all got carried away with the market a few years back doesn't mean these sorts of numbers are a permanent thing.
You are right in the sense that finance has been withdrawn but wrong to suggest it is coming back any time soon - I don't believe it will until the risk profile dramatically changes (ie, the rebalancing of the market is a done deal).
I think this can only happen with further falls of 20-30% in most areas.
It won't all happen at once and it will take every ounce of professionalism we have to keep the wheels on the wagon as it edges downwards.
I do recognise all the positive mental attitude stuff but sometimes reality intrudes and a new strategy is required.
Ray - only single and frankly stupid FTB's want flats. Do you realise what you've written - 125k for a flat!
That's an insane amount of money for 1/2 a house or a dogbox in a block unless it is in London.
Rosalind you have done great job with Estate Agent Today which is about the only trade press worth reading apart from The Estates Gazette, but this "story" should really never have seen the light of day and does EAT a great disservice. Perhaps it is worth considering changing the filter to a slightly smaller mesh as it would be shame to see the on-going credibility of the journal affected.
There are LOADS of houses that are affordable to FTB's with good salaries and prospect throughout the country! Not everywhere of course.
1 or /2 bed flats at £125.000 or less.
The problem is only 65/70% mortgages available to those with good salaries and prospects but with ridiculous 'hoops' to jump, high fees and excessive interest rates. That means £35,000+ deposits.
Get real - the money lenders are not taking normal business risk and are stitching us.
Discuss!
If sellers don't price to local wages/markets then they won't sell. Simple as that.
Boom's gone, recession's here to stay for the foreseeable, and worse since inflations >10% in reality, more like 15% if you look at what you spend and what you get compared to last year.
As EA's we need to get sellers to drop by anything from 10-30% because buyers can't get stupid jumbo mortgages anymore and there's no guarantee of a short term return on investment if measured on price alone.
This is a paid for advertorial I guess. Would not read much into it.
.....think it has something to do with the weather.
Happy to say erections have been increasing in this office. Very few are being converted into anything worth while :0)
Not sure about the method used .. this company may not have the reach say of Rightmove or the Land Registry. Are they truly national?
Where I am sensibly priced property is moving (or at least getting some footfall) and the la-la-la-la-land brigade are getting no viewers.
Same as it's been all year.
What's interesting is that the figures (however scientific) suggest sales have held up in the regions where there have been some significant price falls, and have dipped most in areas where sellers are holding out for historic highs.
I'm already on record as suggesting where I believe this all leads to.
Do you realise how many board erectors there are? It's making a 'headline' out of nothing, giving the company some PR in the process.
Let's say there were ONLY 10 erectors in the UK. We have data from ONE. Is that a reflection of the market? You would need to know what the others are doing to get a fair reflection if you were to use the sector to get a leading indicator.
You wouldn't use a National removal firms recent activity to guage how many people are moving house.
A) They do not have a definitive market share (like Rightmove do for example)
B) Not everyone uses them (like for sale/sold boards)
What if the others' business was up 10 fold on Agency Express? Or on the flip side, the other 9 companies only put one sign up between them.
It is just a business report really. I know what you're saying, but you need to capture more data than the performance of one company to acheive relevant 'leading indicators'.
So many of you dont read the article - me included haha.......but company involved seems to be measuring the amount of For sale boards that it converts to Sold. Therefore esatblishing which areas are selling.
So it would seem to be saying to me :
1. That in areas where the prices are lowering sales volume is going up.....not really a shocking revelation then!
2. That in the areas where the prices are going down there are less new instructions - again not surprising!
Isn't this just a symptom of the internet? Nobody wanders round areas looking for 'for sale' signs anymore, people just browse rightmove. The value added of putting up signs is getting pretty marginal
Ace, when you get a moment re-read my comment. I am saying that surely these type of reports are useful as ‘Leading Indicators’. Of course they are not definitive, but what is definitive other than the land registry figures? By the logic your using the reports put out by Nationwide, Halifax and Rightmove have no value. Well, surely they do even if they are not comprehensive. They have value because despite their flaws because they are produced earlier, and in the absence of perfect information you have to build up what information you do have.
Why are leading indicators useful? Because when the 100% definitive result is in it is usually priced in. By acting or not on leading indicators (ideally several of them rather than 1 of course) more often than not you get the direction of travel, if not the exact amount correct. This information is useful to vendors and Buyers when deciding if they should bring forward or delay a transaction.
I am based in Leicester so where has the 55% increase come from? And who says so?
These figures bear no relation to the land registry figures which, lets be blunt, are the only true house price figures to watch as they are SOLD prices.
According to the land reg London is soaring with the rest of the country either stagnant or at the start of a big crash.
Wales is heading down big time according to the land reg but this firm, who I have never seen a single sign used in West Wales, is saying Wales is on the up.
Everything else - rightmove, halifax, nationwide, RICs, are all pie in the sky IMPO.
Btw, I think Swansea, and Mumbles/Gower in particular, is about to experience a rather nasty crash. Can't recall so many properties for sale with so few buyers.
FTB Dan - Ric is correct. Of course he is. Anyone who doesn't deal with 100% of the market ARE reporting THEIR business results, while getting a bit for free (?) PR.
You would have 101 arguments if the stats of a board company who operate solely in London were used. Or if the 'report' had stated that sales were booming, you would have questioned the source and quite rightly, too.
He is saying this is not a definitive result.
I don't know how you can challenge him here when he clearly said:
"Would EAT be a better site for EA's and onlookers if they were to perhaps collate all of the other board company findings and then prepare a story on the whole market rather than just repeat one companies findings?
"
Guess what, he's on a roll and correct. Again.
@ Ric,
Which is what? The land registry only, so Halifax, Nationwide and Rightmove surveys all provide no useful information what so ever?
As long as a sample is statistically significant it will surely provide a leading indicator.
Laughable, a board company giving stats out......
ONLY and ONLY a company, organisation or anyone who deals with 100% of the market Nationally can really comment on what is happening with the market, OTHERWISE they are simply commenting on what is happening with their business!
Would EAT be a better site for EA's and onlookers if they were to perhaps collate all of the other board company findings and then prepare a story on the whole market rather than just repeat one companies findings?
With the obvious ending that Boards no matter how many you account for DOES NOT tell the true picture, MORE and MORE people choose to sell without boards nowwa days, unless obviously it could be confirmed EVERY HOUSE on the market has a board!
I am a big board company and for sale signs are virtually sold out as of 4th july 2011 - so does that mean market is up now!!???
Sorry, but am i missing the point here.... how can a board contractor say there are more or less sales nationally... the firm i work for covers Cornwall and Devon and our 40+ offices dont use Agency Express (neither do a lot of our competition). So saying house sales in the SW fell by 14.8% is not only misleading but once again (and sorry to repeat previous posts but....) another scaremongering 'headline' which has no relavance!
Surely the headline shoud read "board contractor comments on how busy (or not) they were last month"!
I personally believe things will get worse over the coming months. What is clear is the economic hardships are taking a firmer grip and surely will have a negative effect on the housing market.
All the Estate agents bragging about Chinese and Russian Investors in central London have to realise this does not mean a healthy national market. Those investors can turn off, especially if those economies take a turn for the worse.
What is certain is house prices are still vastly inflated and there will not be a housing recovery till property prices return to normal affordable levels.
OMG!
Not another 'Headline' about prices/hpc/boards/etc.
Please EAT lets give it arest for a few weeks now and only post news other than national average prices etc.. Maybe if you do the discussions will then revolve around the men/women with something interesting to say.
Some of the childish behaviour on EAT is killing this site off. It would be so nice if we had constuctive posts.
Vossy I agree with you.
Confidence in the country needs to be stable before this UK recession is over.
I dont get it....whats with the June slump? It has been slumps for Jan, Feb, March, April, May & June and not only 2011 but 2010 also!
8:52 on a Monday morning and Richard is posting lame insults rather than anything intelligent or, heaven forbid, doing some work. Must be busy busy busy in his neck of the woods.
Out of interest Richard what is with the desperate personal attacks?
Should we assume your overleveraged BTL portfolio is now underwater and you’re looking for someone to hate? Be a hater if you like, life is too short to spend it fuming about someone else's opinion on something that you don’t agree with.
Back on subject it is hardly new news that the market is dysfunctional right now. Slowly sellers expectations are going to return to reality, although it might be winter or perhaps another failed spring bounce before we see juicy falls. And by the way this paragraph is just my opinion, no need to tie yourself up in knots if you have a different one. Nevertheless, I await the inevitable cloning as someone now post an abusive message using my name.
London figures are interesting.
Bubble bursting?
Shall we all hold our breath to see how long before the idiot” FTB Jack and Danny” posts? Maybe later, as I think the kids are at skool now.
Stats all very interesting but I think we all know that the market is very segmented and regionalised and generalisations like this only paint a false picture.
Hamptons saw a 49% RISE in net sales compared to 2010 based on a very strong prime London market and much improved picture out in the Country regions.
No year is specified - this means this June does it?!!!
we use agency express and we have had a very good month for both listings and sales. work hard and play hard ignore stats and you will both list and sell. try to not let the journalistic pundits phase you.