House prices fell 1.9% year-on-year in February, with a monthly decline of 0.5% largely reversing the 0.6% gain made in January, says Halifax.
The average property price in February was £160,118 – 1.9% lower than February last year, and nearly 20% below Halifax’s average house price of around £200,000 at the height of the market in August 2007.
The Halifax report is also in slight contrast to Nationwide’s for February, which gave a monthly rise in prices of 0.6% and an annual rise of 0.9%. However, with Nationwide putting the average house price at £162,712, both were close to what the Land Registry has been reporting.
Martin Ellis, housing economist at Halifax, said: “Overall, prices nationally are at broadly the same level as last spring. This stability in prices is explained by the fact that market conditions have changed very little over this period, with demand supported by low interest rates and supply remaining tight.”
Halifax also said that for the second month running there was a rise in first-time buyers scrabbling to beat the end of the Stamp Duty holiday on March 24.
%20-%20IMAGE%20Client%20Accounting%20%E2%80%93%20what%20are%20your%20options.jpg)
%20A%20property%20tale%20for%20our%20times.png)
Comments
Sorry for the delay Techie, Yes quite a few! But not because of prices.
Why do so many with the heads up some where dark continue to post pages of opinion no one cares about other than their mum when they show her how clever they have been. Pathetic!
Wnat to rent. Rent
Want to buy. Buy
Otherwise just shut it!
No reply Errr ? has the penny dropped? I would normally let this kind of thing go but when someone insists on calling me thick I think I am right to take issue. Even more so when they are clearly being a bit dim (To put it mildly).
OK so you are comparing the cost of renting with a fall in capital values of buying.
So in your land of make believe the buyer does not have a mortgage, otherwise you have to offset his mortgage costs against the rent. To make it simple the equation is:
If (Capital Gain – Mortgage servicing costs) > Rent then buyer wins, else buyer loses.
Let not bother to include Stamp Duty, or other costs of home ownership shall we (we wont even include furnishing [lets assume the renter rents an unfurnished property] or maintenance costs [lets assume there are none]).
Ok so you could say you buyer is a cash buyer (again lets ignore stamp duty) so he has no mortgage. Lets say he paid £300k for the place. The renter therefore must be sitting on £300k to compare like with like - which he presumable invests.
And then we take the last 2 years. But the article is stating we have had a fall since 2007.
Personally for me it gets better. Anyone that knows me on HPC knows that I predicted a DCB from about Nov 2008 to a few months ago. So I am not going to argue the toss with someone about the last two years when I was bullish during most of it. I actually agree that buying in that period was , depending on location, a better deal. But there are all sorts of arguments why now the tide is turning. I don’t really have the inclination to ram that down our throat or up any other orifice, maybe some other time.
Maybe you are right (remember I was only asking you to support your numbers because I couldn’t see where they were coming from - no need to be antagonistic about it, I was literally asking where the numbers came from) and maybe property will increase in value. Frankly that’s a different argument. You made a statement but you either stupidly or conveniently forgot a side of the equation.
Still it only goes to confirm that caveat emptor is the byword when dealing with you boyz! Maybe your name needs a “D” at the front of it?
Thanks for your reasoned assessment Err.
So in short your answer to my first part is "no".
Re my second part, your silence speak volumes.
I have a follow up and that is have you ever advised anyone NOT to buy somewhere?
Poster 3 below needs to remember Japan, if we dont cut and paste all this stuff they will never know, we won't change the world to avoid a Japan.
Off to another blog for a clever story, to bring back here, so I look clever, see its easy. In the meantime anyone been to Japan, is it near Cromer?
Im with Ace, Ill distance myself from the lad below on his tone but remove the tosspottery and there is a valid point somewhere in there
Jonnie
...and that below is everything the sterotype of an ignorant, arrogant and detached estate agent stands for!!
You gotta love these guys - they do the majority no favours at all.
Prices fall, we sell more earn big fat fees, they rise we earn even more, rents rise we earn more and more landlords come along to take the rent, love the job.. The more this lot squeal the better and funnier it becomes............now adjusted to the market last year and this best ever.
Stats and copied paragraph trying look clever , even funnier!!
Mind you the muppets are funny too!
Nah, had an offer accepted last year but couldn't get a mortgage.
In the meantime, you miserable lot have the dubious pleasure of my company.
Nope, no glee. I was one of the Wilson 3,000,000 with 3 redundancies under my belt since.
I learnt "their" rules and played them like an Ozzie.
You are thinking and posting about it too much Joel that makes me think you have already bought and are just here for the fun of it.
So lower house prices mean there's less money for the kids to inherit to get on the housing ladder themselves... But in that scenario, the kids, or grandkids, will need less money to get on the housing ladder anyway.
Now, now Errr, I think you're being a little disingenuous there. You say you're not taking sides but what is implicit in your words is that you fear further price falls and indeed a thinly disguised glee at a priced-out generation.
Still, regarding your kids' inheritance that's great. If the second leg down occurs as I hope it will they'll be able to get more bang for their bucks.
Champers all round methinks.
penury? I am smater than that Joel, both kids have already had their inheritance! no point giving the government another 40% on an estate built up by paying 40% tax.
I will die owing the bank more money than I have ever earned. they are welcome to repossess the whold lot and chase me for the balance.
I have worked hard enough to reverse the inheritance point in our family so when my parents die their estate will go to my grandkids, skipping 2 generataions not just 1, they will be getting sizeable deposits on their property at an age when they need it, as my kids have, when they are young!
I am not on any side in this but I am passing on my advice. buy what you can , while you can and worry about your mistakes when you are dead.
Mortgages are no different to rent , but the difference is no landlord I know stops collecting rent after 25 years
Ah Errr, that explains your stance then; after all, your 'house is your pension' n'est-ce pas?
A greater mind than mine said, 'your pension is your childrens' penury'.
In any event, transactions will revert to mean again but this will only happen with sufficient numbers of forced sales. In the meantime we can while away the days debating who's more right.
You should join the dark side, it'd good to have a bull with a bit of spirit.
I am retired Joel.
It is the levels of transaction that isgoing to fall, not prices.
Agency is becoming more and more unviable in most areas simply because too many redundant Agents set up and dilute the market rather than do anything else.
Even Graduates with degrees can't find work enough to live the ownership dream so what hope has an ex-agent.
Maggie Thatcher's dream of home ownership for all is on a back burner right now and the reality of that means that whatever situation folk are in now that is their situation for at least 1 generation.
Please don't buy I won't have anyone to post with in two years time.
You win, I am not trained to teach tongue driers!
£3,000 not borrowed is approx £6,000 that doesn't have to be paid back, including interest.
If prices have declined by an average of 2% around the country over the last two years ago, FTBs who found a 95% LTV deal 24 months ago in areas slightly more than that average would currently be a whisker away from negative equity.
Why don't you get ahead of the curve Errr - get your vendors to up their asking prices by 10% and within a few months you'll be raking it in.
Errr, your attitude puzzles me. For an EA in the business, presumably, of maximising profits you seem more concerned by the possibility of falling prices than raising transactions.
Are you sure you're in the right job?
Newsflash first
http://www.lettingagenttoday.co.uk/news_features/Swedes-move-in-on-English-buy-to-let-action
Now techie
2 years ago average house price was £163000 it is now £160000; a fall of £3000 on £163000 = 1.84%
Average UK rent last two years up to £715 from £673
£716 x £24 = £17200 spent in rent.
While a FTB sat in rented accommodation paying £17200 average prices only fell by £3000, but most of that fall wasn't the sort of place they can afford.
Shall I find an analyst to write this down line by line so you can copy it and eventually hope to understand it?
Evidently neither maths nor reading are your strong points so roll over and let the Swedes snap up another 300 starter homes. More demand, less supply = What?
“Estate Agents have it wrong, professional investors have it wrong, everyone who has saved £16k and is paying £360 per month to own a home that costs £716 to rent is wrong! Prices will fall!” Were you Chicken Licken in a former life?
Hi Errrr "Is it also impressive that I know that the average house price has only reduced by 1.8% in the same two years.? In the 2 years you guys have given £17200 to btl landlords in the vain hope of a crash in prices.
Your tactic (Spending £17k to save £3k?) isn't paying off, so hopefully you can see that advice freely given 2 years ago was not far from the Mark; prices are not going to fall through the floor. Please get on and buy somewhere, while there is still stock for you to buy."
Wow, im a little confused where your numbers come from. Are they bucks fizz (land of make believe) numbers? I wont comment on your last post to Nick where you tell him that means mean nuffin [sic].. Whoops!
Either you rent property or rent money. Where are your opportunity cost numbers? What if i had bought - do your numbers include debt cost servicing. And if you are saying that both your renter and your buyer have (previously) had a cash stash which remains intact for the renter but is fully eroded for the buyer, then have you included an offset of investment income of that stash?
I think views are polarised on both sides of this argument , wether you are right or wrong its a very sad situation IF in the next few years our kids become renters and dont live the dream of a "property owning democracy" errrr innit?
I look forward to a response since you are obviously one of those chaps that has to have the mot dernier! Bonne Chance!
OK Nick., more bad news.
Do you understand the mathematical concept of average or mean?
Let me explain. If in the last two years the prices of un-affordable to FTB properties has fallen because chain gap economics do not support inflated prices, the average property price will/could fall even if the price of affordable to FTB properties remains the same or increases.
An average fall of 1.8% over two years does not mean than all prices have come down by 1.8%. Central London prices have gone up other prices have gone down. The thing about the housing market is it is just like any other market, the staple products (2 and 3 bed family homes) tend to be more price stable that the luxury products. Bread and milk prices vary very little but Purple Tip Broccoli prices are all over the place.
You boys and girls have a choice, you can buy now while there is stuff to buy or you can wait. If you wait there will be people who do not share your view that prices will crash and they will buy.
Because you have, in the past 4 years, failed to convince everyone that prices of FTB homes will fall, they won't. There is no denying that a crash did happen but since spring 2008 prices have stabilised back onto the trend line
A stat that came out in the other story yesterday where the Industry Walruses were knocking chunks out of each other showed that only 5% of the housing stock is changing hands each year. 90% of the stock isn’t on the market so supply is limited. Wherever supply is exceeded by demand prices will naturally rise.
Demand might not be good for places you can not afford and those prices will fall back, but the demand for places you can afford outweighs the supply and the only reason those prices are being kept in check is because of lending criteria.
Please ignore my advice, you keeping out of the market reduces the competition for someone a bit smarter than yourself and someone who isn't arrogant enough to think that agents don't understand their own industry.
Good heavens,Errrr
Your desperation is showing. Too much wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Rather than listen to you, I prefer to look at some hard evidence. When this Coalition has stopped faking-up the economy, prices will crash like in Ireland (50%), USA, Spain and Portugal. Interest rates will have to rise and then credit crunch 2 kicks-in. I'm waiting with my house fund. No way am I being suckered-in to get screwed by this Ponzi scheme. A lot of people buying now are going to regret it in the near future.
Is it also impressive that I know that the average house price has only reduced by 1.8% in the same two years.? In the 2 years you guys have given £17200 to btl landlords in the vain hope of a crash in prices.
Your tactic (Spending £17k to save £3k?) isn't paying off, so hopefully you can see that advice freely given 2 years ago was not far from the Mark; prices are not going to fall through the floor. Please get on and buy somewhere, while there is still stock for you to buy.
For a new poster, it's impressive that Errr knows what was being discussed on EAToday two years ago and that Sibley's real name is Joel... The tone of Errr's posts looks a little familiar too.
There's a new regional report on types of property and their prices that has just been released Ray. Bungalows in Sheringham are reported to have suffered the biggest decline across the nation. Any over 50s who own such properties were also singled out for being in denial about how much the value of these had declined, especially when they were hoping to use them to top up a pension... ; )
Re what Ray says about cars and houses...
From The early Mini years: "The purchase price of the 1959 Mini was £496 including tax when it was launched to the public on 26th August 1959" which by all accounts was broadly equivalent to one year's average wages. For comparison, according to the Nationwide, the average price of a house in that month was £2,124, i.e. a house cost four times as much as a Mini.
The on-the-road cash price of today's basic Mini is £11,810 (about half a year's average wage) and an average house costs £166,597. So nowadays, a house costs fourteen times as much as a Mini.
I strongly suspect that today's basic Mini is vastly superior to the original one in terms of comfort, safety etc (although it doesn't have bumpers) so that is much, much better value, but the average house today is barely better than one fifty-two years ago.
Sure, it might have double glazing, central heating and a new kitchen, but all those things probably cost half as much as they did sixty years ago as well, and by and large the fabric of the building is the same, or even inferior if you're looking at new builds.
What does it matter if the market does or doesn't get moving again.
61,000 transations a month is enough to keep agents fed watered and beemered up, so where is the problem? Sadly for a daily increasing number of FTBs and now FTRs there is no where to buy or rent.
I feel sorry for the parents who have been waiting to get their homes back.
They will fall
They will rise
I want to rent
I want to buy.
There told you all, now just do one or the other! All your spouting changes as much as the scum at St Pauls, makes them feel better but achieved sod all.
'prices are now determined by those who can afford to buy not those who want to buy.'
Agree 100% there with you Errr hence the continuing drought in transactions. If you're an EA i'd be a little less sanguine about it.
Given that the major lenders are cutting back drastically on IO mortgages (Santander, maximum 50% LTV with proven repayment vehicle) even the BTL mob are going to struggle getting on board.
For the market to get moving again will require one or the following occuring - sizeable wage inflation, credit loosening, or house price falls. What do you think?
By the way, there'll be a large number of BTLers getting used to the term 'margin call' in the near future.
When these renters get sick of working hard and decide not to contribute to their landlords' wealth, where are they going to live!
Already demand for rents is at a historic high because Joe Public can not borrow to buy even at ultra low rates of interest.
It was predicted on here two years ago that this was coming, Nah Nah Nah, it will never happen! was the cry.
Sorry mate it has, it is and will continue into the foreseeable future.
Great Britain is simply becoming like many European Partner where renting is the go for the vast majority of the population.
Bank of Ireland (Bristol&West etc.) are raising their SVR.
Rates on the up!!! Prices about to fall off a cliff. Again.
Errrrr!
that may well be the case. And it will continue until such time as the renters are sick of working hard to allow landlords to get wealthy by doing nothing. I don't know whether it will get to revolution stage, but from the sounds of your attitude it could well do. When the majority realise whats happening they wont just be voting in LVT but punitive taxes for landlords
Brit will be around 54%.
dave probably around 75%, but comparing it to 1991 Japenese prices.
Quite simply the average price should correlate with the average wage x3.5
Nope, pre BTL yet possibly but sorry Joel those multiplers are out of the window.
a few miles down the A12 from you flats are selling (and prices rising) @ 43x the local wage.
Sorry mate average wage has nothing to do with property prices anymore, prices are now determined by those who can afford to buy not those who want to buy.
Society has changed you are either a Renter or an Owner.
Don't be silly Ray, if house prices represented their labour costs i'll be looking at 80k instead.
So, results so far
Sibley's – 15%
Rant – 21%
Thanks chaps – be interesting to see what BRIT and our dave say
Jonnie
@Sibley's B'stard Child on 2012-03-07 13:57:17
"Quite simply the average price should correlate with the average wage x3.5"
Same for cars, T.V.s, lawnmowers, etc. etc.?
.
Where's chris the btler?
On the open market (ie not repo/probate) around 150k.
So, let's say 10-15% more off and i'm there.
Sibley’s
What is a terrace in Dagenham going for today mate?
Jonnie
Fair enough Jonnie, let's face it from a HPCer point of view the headline is great but when 2007 marked the absolute pinnacle of credit insanity it still doesn't mean much.
Quite simply the average price should correlate with the average wage x3.5
Round my gaff Dagenham I would expect to get a two-bed mid-terraced for 130k tops. I'd be happy with that.
In it's recent annual review of global housing markets, which examines historic trends, rental yields vs purchase price and much, much more, The Economist calculated that the average UK house is currently 28% 'overvalued'.
On that basis, 'fair value' would be an average price of circa £125K to £130K.
(elsewhere, the US was pretty much equal, Germany and Japan were undervalued, whilst Hong Kong and Australia were considered to be more overvalued than the UK)
Bubbles have a habit of undershooting on the way down though (as happened to UK house prices in the '90s, oil prices in 2009 etc), so who knows where the bottom might be? Of course, we might be at the bottom now in nominal terms, and have to wait five plus years for salaries to catch up before this 'fair value' figure is reached. That's a big if in my opinion though, given today's unemployment and UK workers competing in a globalised economy.
Another feature observed in housing bubbles around the world is that the number of years down roughly corresponds to the number of years up. In this case, such was the extent to which the bubble was allowed to inflate, UK house prices are about four years into a ten year slump
The £40K figure in this article is misleading in several ways though. That's since 2007, so it's probably £50K in real terms. Having said that, Halifax called the peak of the bubble at a significantly higher level than Nationwide and the Land Registry did. The Nationwide and Land Reg currently give a figure of around £25K off their respective 2007 peaks.
In my view the perpetual publishing of a plethora of conflicting headline statistics referring to the “average” prices causes confusion for the market and creates unnecessary problems for agents, vendors and prospective purchasers in a particular region.
Publishing the types of property and the geographical region should be included, as it is only by giving this information for it to be even possibly helpful?
I really need Sibs and Rant in on this, in fact BRIT and dave could chip in but I think we all want to see some hard numbers / percentages please (yes dave, especially you mate) and no ducking it with a loads of flim flam – one line answers with your name and a % please…….plus dave love, we know your stance on Japan – were all mates here now, you don’t need to mention it again just give us a figure yeah?
So, 20% off – good yes? What more do we need off before you boys will call the bottom of the market and the HPC site shuts up shop and hangs a ‘job done’ sign on the door and you all grace the market with your presence/ big deposits and AIP mortgages and bag yourself a home.
Jonnie
House prices only ever go up etc etc.
This is excellent news, hopefully the Coalition will speed up the downwards adjustment by hiking interest rates, liberalising planning laws and shifting taxes from incomes and profits to the rental value of land.
I wonder if Gideon will extend the SD holiday now? If he does it won't have much effect - most of the few remaining first time buyers have shot their bolt trying to beat the deadline.
As the car industry discovered with the scrappage scheme, there's only so many buyers you can steal from the future. Reality always gets you in the end....
Good serves you right, rent.