House prices slipped 2.4% in April, the Haifax reported this morning, more than wiping out March's rise of 2.2%. The average house price now stands at a seasonally adjusted £159,883, says Halifax - lower than Nationwide now makes it.
However, Nationwide seems undecided as to whether house prices are going down or up.
Indeed, thanks to Nationwide, it seems possible that they are doing both, courtesy of our old friend ‘seasonal adjustment’.
In March the average house price was £163,327. In April house prices then went down – or up, depending on which way you look at it – to £164,134, according to Nationwide.
We suspect that most of the fearless property media commentators went straight to Nationwide’s own prophet of doom, otherwise known as its chief economic adviser, Robert Gardner.
He certainly seemed to think prices had gone down, saying: “The price of a typical UK home fell by 0.2% in April, following a 1% decline in March.”
Ah yes, that 1% decline – the one where house prices went down (as Nationwide seems to prefer that word to ‘up’) from £162,712 in February to £163,327.
We think there is only one thing to do with seasonal adjustment.
Take it outside and shoot it.
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Comments
actually who cares what you pile think, will it change anything? Nope.
The BBC seem to agree as well PeeBee:
House Market Back In The Doldrums
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17988154
It's the change in sentiment that ticks the boxes for me. The balance of surveyors reporting price falls rather than rises has increased, reversing several months when the reverse was true. Looking ahead, the balance who expect price rises in the next three months has shifted from minus 3 to minus 17.
I liked the report's headline too: Rebound In Housing Market Runs Out Of Steam.
Numerous of the comments from the contributors reflect a growing awareness that the banks' aren't going to start lending as before, and that much of the current stagnation in the market is more down to overvaluing and vendor greed.
So, all in all, good stuff.
rant: sorry, matey - but "blame it on x, y, or z - they said it not me" doesn't wear with me. YOU quoted it because you liked what it said - YOU should therefore be prepared to stand to argue the point... or concede that your point was invalid.
Only fair...
I'm quoting the Guardian's headline PeeBee - take it up with them ; )
rant: "Today's news:
House prices falling steeply, says Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
Erm... I think not, mon ami. Please note this from the RICS storybook...: "19% more surveyors recorded price falls rather than rises. That said, it is still noteworthy that 63% of respondents reported no change in prices and of the ones that did see a fall in prices, 81% did so in the 0-2% range."
Show me the "steeply falling" prices from that, mate...
Today's news:
House prices falling steeply, says Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
http://m.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/08/house-prices-falling-chartered-surveyors?cat=business&type=article
Can't really have it both ways, seasonal adjustment functions in a normal market to smooth out the yearly ups and downs, taking a bit of the spring-early summer bounce away and adding it onto the quieter months, precisely to avoid the appearance of a market in trouble when it's really just business as usual.
Of course that doesn't work when, as at the present, the spring market doesn't pan out as expected in a lot of areas.
Things have actually been going rather well here in my Southern counties patch, with my (sensibly valued) new instructions moving nicely, but as I predicted at the time, some of my competitors are struggling with over-exuberant valuations - bidding things up to record levels to gain stock ahead of what looks like another downturn (how steep is yet to be ascertained) isn't the brightest thing to do.
Once again, I predict a few red faces as the year progresses.
@rant,
Never had you down as a Torygraph reader mate – mind you I had a glance at the father in laws Guardian when I was round there the other day, made me feel quite unsuitable.
Anyway – here we are Nationwide index is out Tadaaa! And, well and nothing really house prices bafflingly resilient, moving down with the speed of continental drift and a continuing need to use various ways of saying that when the average price goes from £162,712 to £163,327 (an increase of £615) the average has gone down?! – anyway everyone will make whatever they will of it – my conclusion is the same as its been for a while, its flat.
However, the interesting bit is @rant’s note on the 800,000 poor sods that are just about keeping the bailiffs out – that’s a lot of people and if they all get turffed out in a short period that is 800,000 repos hitting the market all at once – a years worth of transactions – BOOM all in one lump, now that will make a difference.
Jonnie
Death and taxes?
The only sure things in life...
The big thing missing here is the VALUE of proerty.
Prices schmices, they are relatively irrelevant (I quite like that...)
The value of the average home has dropped by 9.9% as per article a couple of weeks back.
Caused by the effects of inflation.
He certainly seemed to think prices had gone down, saying: “The price of a typical UK home fell by 0.2% in April
AAAArrrgh my house went down in value by £40 last month..
DOOOOOOOM
12 months ago, the Nationwide numbers went on a five-month bull run (in both senses of the word). Even if they report static house prices for the next few months, their annual number would start deteriorating significantly. If they put out small falling numbers, they could reach a minus 5% annual figure by the end of the summer. Little wonder they're using seasonal adjustment to mask this.
Halifax average UK house price Apr 2012: £159,883
Halifax average UK house price Jun 2004: £159,685
Apparently they don't double every seven years... ; )
Each month the national AVERAGE price (which to the buyer means very little - they are intersted only in their chosen area) Of course averages will go up or down if the are taken every month. What on earth are we quoting 0.2% as being of any relevance on a product of (say) £165,000 over a month. It's rubbish! In one direction over six months - yes - it would probably be meaningful..
Daily Telegraph:
(UK) House prices fall 2.4% and could slip 20% further:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100016917/house-prices-slipped-2-4pc-lower-last-month-and-could-fall-by-20pc-further/
Also: Numbers of UK mortgages subject to lender forbearance reaches 800,000:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2139370/NIESR-warns-zombie-families-kept-afloat-cheap-mortgages.html
Lies damn lies and statistics - reality is its bumping along the bottom - unless of course we are headed down like the French see http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/9244152/France-faces-40pc-house-price-slump.html
:-(