Could some green shoots have been spotted in last month’s housing market?
Whilst this morning's Halifax survey showed the average house prices fell in February by 2.8% over the year and was the biggest annual fall since October 2009, there was more to the fall than was apparent. The monthly fall of 0.9% compared with January has actually left house prices pretty flat over the last quarter, with a change of -0.4%.
Martin Ellis, housing economist for the Halifax, downplayed the falls saying there had been little change in house prices over the first two months of 2011, with this month's 0.9% fall offset by January's 0.8% gain.
"Overall, we expect a modest 2% decrease in house prices in 2011. Uncertainty over the economic outlook is likely to weigh down on housing demand this year," he said.
"Fewer properties have been coming on to the market in recent months. This trend, if sustained, should improve the balance between demand and supply and help to prevent a more significant fall in house prices."
Meanwhile, according to the agency boards firm, Agency Express (yes, it’s EAT’s favourite man-with-the-boards survey, which provides a down-to-earth picture), it certainly looked like a sprouting of green shoots last month.
After three months of decline, 38.3% more For Sale signs had the magic word ‘Sold’ splashed across them than in January.
We mustn’t get too excited. Sales were still down 26.5% on last February (which was an exceptionally high month for sales in 2010). However, they were 14.0% up on February 2009.
The figures also provide encouragement for the months ahead as the number of house sales was 25.1% higher than the monthly average over the last 50 months.
Again, we mustn’t get carried away, as they are still 59% lower than the market peak in May 2007.
However, the Agency Express teams were kept busy across all parts of the UK in February.
Leading the way was Scotland with a hike in sales of 62.1% followed by Greater London (61.4%), the North-West (52.3%), West Midlands (43.4%) and the South-East (43.1%). The region with the lowest improvement in house sales was the North-East but even here there was an increase of 15.1%.
Three cities at least doubled the amount of house sales they achieved last month. In February, Leicester’s went up a massive 140%, Glasgow saw a rise of 114.3% and Coventry 100%. Three cities that bucked the UK trend with declines in house sales were Edinburgh, Colchester and Nottingham.
The number of new For Sale signs that went up in February rose 27.7% on January, but still historically low.
The number of houses put up ‘For Sale’ was 48% down on the market peak in May 2007 and 6.4% lower that the monthly average over the last 50 months.
Stephen Watson, managing director of Agency Express and a former estate agent, said: “Better weather conditions certainly helped the situation in February and we could be seeing people moving and securing a fixed rate mortgage now before interest rates start to go up as expected in the next few months.
“One of the more telling figures from our index is that the level of sales achieved in February was significantly higher than the average monthly level we have seen over the 50 months that the index has been running, suggesting that we are seeing a recovery, albeit a slow one.”
Never let it be said that EAT only reports bad news. See our next story and have a busy weekend, with a spring in your step.
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Comments
Should have been listening to the cricket instead Jonny - get in there England!
I think if we take average incomes, average student debt and average house prices then the average
FTB doesn't have much of a chance...
Rant,
Alright, I know you are right that this is not the average but its not unusual mate, yes if we take average incomes, average student debt, average house prices then we have Mr Average, and in reality he doesn’t exist.
Whether to buy now or later, (I think your pal Sibley’s B’Stad Child is going for Q4 2011, some people will put it off forever some people are doing it this weekend) is a question of personal circumstance not just graphs, charts and science, plus George (below) is right, you cant loose money on property over a period but ive always said its 10 years and I know for a fact that that Victorian Terrace I shifted yesterday was £120,000 10 years ago because I was selling them on that road then, 10 years before that they were no more than £60,000 – in fact back then if you took one on over £60,000 then you struggled because of SDLT……..so there you go real life example and try it on any real property and it’s the same
So, do it when its right for you, society doesn’t mind if you sit in rented / at mums forever but we don’t all need to know about it so don’t drone on about it in pubs or at dinner parties because it makes you sound dull. And that’s not fair on you although spend to much time on an estate agents blog trying to find the answers you want when your mates on HPC will make you feel much happier.
Right, that’s it for a Sunday from me, Waitrose meat counter and an under 11’s football match awaits, gutted that Top Gear has finished.
Jonnie
Jonnie, you are of course correct. Silly me, I have completely discounted all those FTBs on 120K. How on earth did I forget such a large section of the population?
No doubt all the other EAs on here will soon be adding in comments about all the other FTBs they are dealing with who have incomes of 100K plus.
I threw that in simply to counter the short term average that had been qoted at me.
3, 4 or even 5% isn't even close to relaively high inflation in fact try an average of 13% in the 70s with a peak of 25%.
I'm a bit off 50 yet so if I am a boomer that is what I am.
The sensible ones of my generation borrowed their deposits off whoever we could, 3,000,000 unemployed in the early 80's meant that them that had jobs were lucky.
I am from generation that have learned not to trust a single word any Finanical advisor ever utters, Endowment churning, Endowment under performance. Pension mis-advice the whole works!
Where is all the cash coming from to fund 2nd 3rd and 4th purchases? We learned very quickly that the FA's and insurance companies had stitched us up and made provision to pay off our endowment mortgages. The 25 year endowments have started to pay out in recent years and allthough they aren't the utopian wads of cash we were promised. it is enough to put down deposits on additional purchases.
Rather than take another fisting on pensions my generation are providing themselves with rent inflation indexed pension plans by buying up property.
With property as our pensions we aren't restricted to what we do with our money and can buy and sell when we choose. We have assets that we can pass on to our Grandchildren.
My generation have not protested about the shafting we have had from the financial intstiutons but have taken quiet control of our own affairs.
RnR
Or another scenario and stone me it happened today
Young couple go to estate agent that's doing quite well and made 1/4 million quid profit last year and is still open.
He's in IT and on £120k a year, she runs a shop and is on £25k a year, been renting a 1 bed house for £600 a month for a while and through his bonuses have saved up £30k
See a nice Victorian terrace for £250k, had first couple of offers refused as it's on at the right dough and the owner had 6 viewings yesterday and today, went to asking price, White goods chucked in - wallop deal done, agent has £5k fee plus the mortgage and life bits and bobs and a cut from the solicitor for doing the conveyancing so well call it 5700 quid, happy seller, happy buyer, agent feels okay but it happens a lot so no big deal for him.
Jonnie
And of course, in your scenario RnR, the parents and grandparents willingly donate all the money they have made on their current properties to charity, rather than leave it to their relatives, to be used for deposits/holidays/new car.
Wardy - another scenario for you. A young man graduates from university with 15K of debt and meets a lady who has also just recently graduated and has a similar debt level. They want to start a new life together.
They go to their local EA, find it has closed due to the recent low level of transactions and head to another one. There they discover that on top of their student debts, they need to find 30K for a deposit on a two-bed terrace that has tripled in price over the last decade.
Due to the credit crunch and resulting government spending cuts, neither of them are able to find jobs that match their level of education. Finding it impossible to save the deposit, they both ask their parents for help. However, in both cases, their parents are worried about losing their own jobs and are unable to lend, let alone give, them money.
Undeterred, they approach the grandparents they have who are still alive. The grandparents refuse to help because they think young people are all a bunch of whingers who dont know how lucky they are.
The young couple decide to emigrate to another country where they can find jobs that match their skills and houses are much more affordable. They live happily ever after.
George - I'll put aside the fact that your earlier example conveniently compares house prices at their lowest value in 20 years to their highest. You also seem to have a knowledge of the housing market that stretches back more than a decade or two - would you consider yourself to be part of the generation known as 'Boomers'?
Your latest post includes inflation being taken into consideration I take it? Given the relatively high period of inflation we are in, this distorts the calculation, especially since salaries are currently not rising in line with inflation.
I will agree with you that historically, in recent decades house prices have doubled every seven years. However, in my opinion the rules were reset after the year 2000 (ish) when the banks went on a credit-lending frenzy and people could lie about their own incomes on mortgage application forms.
If we do want to say that historical comparisons are still valid, can I raise the point that in the long-run the average UK house price has always reverted to a level roughly between three to times four times the average salary level.
Of course it would be unreasonable to say that one set of historical criteria applies (doubling every seven years) but the reversion to the income ratio does not. Would you not therefore agree that current house prices are likely to come down by at least another 20% before they start rising?
I would also be very interested to know where those who say house prices will soon start increasing again think the credit to fund such increases is coming from. It's not coming from the banks, that's for sure!
Imagine this scenario.
A 20 year old bloke meets girl and wants to move out of mums and dads. Both save up £15000 and want to own their own home instead of renting and paying a landlords mortgage for them. The purspose of this is put a roof over their heads and not to speculate money. They have the deposit and the mortgage payments are affordable. In five years time they see a house they like, so the up the mortgage a bit. The market has fluctuated a bit over the last few years but relatively the difference between properties is exactly the same.....and they both lived happily ever after.
True story.
I do know another one about a bloke that stayed at home with parents, never bought a property and is still there now.
p.s he doesn’t do well with the ladies either.
UK average trendline growth January 1970 to Jan 2011 is 8.9%. That is doubling every 7 and a bit years
1970 UK average £4975
2011 UK average £163,000
You smart chaps now vave all the information you need to make an informed decision of your own.
This trendline takes in all the House price crashes I have seen and have worked through.
Pam, what does DSEG stand for? The only relevant one I have been able to find is Department of Social and Economic Geography.
Just out of curiosity, HOW are your transactions better than your competitors if you are telling FTB's (y'know the ones normally found at the bottom of most chains) not to buy? What happens in summer then? Are you planning to tell them to wait longer, as prices will drop further as people try to sell and move before Christmas? Oh, but don't forget, then lots of people decide to move after Christmas, so there will probably be an influx of new houses which will drive the prices down again....
Pam are you related to Pete Hendry of are you simply a cult member?
Historic goes a bit further back than the Land registry period available on the internet.
Go and pick January 1999 to January 2007 and I can show you that prices more than doubled in that period.
I am talking about post war figures. The reason Carol Vorderman would have asked for a postcode from SBC was because the trendline for an area it dependant on its economic fortune. Knowing which area or region will help give very accurate predictions based on cold hard facts independent of internet forum emotions.
My postcode has compounded up at 8.9% over the last 20 years so her it takes between just under 8 years to double up.
Look at an area, such as the west Midland (A typical area away from London with average economic pressures) the average price in January 1995 was £100000 16 years later the average price was up to £220000 a difference of £120000
220000 divide by 100000 equals 2.2
That 2.2 multiplier has taken 16 years to achieve so
2.2 (power 1 over 16) equals 1.0505 which is a trendline growth in West Midlands of 5.05% for that 16 year period.
In the West Midlands it takes 13 years to double up.
In London, The South East and other high growth areas the time is far shorter hence the 7 year average.
Meaningful financial advice is not just about what interest rate and fees are available on a mortgage or insurance product it also involves local knowledge.
If SBC has an IFA who is advising him to hold off without factoring in trendline growth for the area he is being misled.
It is easy to ignore a 0.3% monthly growth in prices but that annualises up to a price increase of over £5500 on a typical property. A landlord with an average buy to let, even in this shocking market is getting £5500 asset increase plus £8000 in rent and is shelling out typical £3690. That is nearly £10,000 for doing naff all.
Interest rate rises need to be 6.5 % before the £8k rent doesn't cover the £123,000 mortgage of even a new entrant BTL Landlord. Most BTL landlords are smart enough to have rates fixed at 2 or 3% for the next few years at least. So even if interest rates do go up FTBs will have a fair wait to see a flood of properties onto the market
There are other stories in the top 30 that prove that only distressed sales are being put on the market. The choice has dropped from 10 properties to 3.
You House Price Canutes can order the prices not to rise but sorry that is exactly what they are going to do.
George D - From data released this week:
Halifax House Price Index:
Sep 2004 £162,669
Jan 2011 £162,657
Land Reg House Price Index:
Jan 2011 £163,177
Q4 2003 £163,584
House prices clearly do not double every seven years. As shown here, they are actually LESS than seven years ago (and these are nominal figures).
Brit1234 - First off, not all shared equity schemes are scams. (I say not all as I don't know which company is doing the one you refer to) they are a way for people who can't buy any other way to purchase. And to be honest, with a 25% deposit, most of the ones in my area would discount you as being able to purchase on the 'normal' market.
MAy I ask which area you are looking in? I realise people don't like giving out personal information on formats such as this, so I understand if you don't want to.
It could simply be that the area YOU are looking to buy in has an abundance of (crappy) Agents who have overvalued everything, to maintain that all-important market share. Wher I wrok, there are plenty of FTB friendly properties, just not that many willing to purchase, partly due to people telling them prices are going to drop by huge amounts in the next few months.
read what has been written and go check the facts that the trendline of price prices shows that property prices double every 7 years. This isn't my wisdom it is historic fact, I can't change it nor can you.
There is a graph shown on the HPC site that demonstrates exactly that point. Prices dipped below the trendline in November and December but has now recovered and showing a relentless rise again.
In 25 years of not being a financial advisor, I have out performed every single Financial advisor I know simply by ignoring their latest advice. One little fund has compound averaged 19% for 21 years.
Follow the crowd and you end up where the crowd end up, but at the back!
Don't worry first time buyers, some of us are working to price properties correctly. We tend to avoid sellers who won't price at the current market levels. Our rivals can take on those properties where the sellers are price dreaming. Hence our transactions are going better than our competitors.
I'm sure the way things are going more people in the next couple of months will drop there prices so have another look in a couple of months or this summer. I'm sure there will be a lot more in your range.
Country Las it's not about being choosy about property type at all. Even one bed flats are priced out of first time buyer range. At the moment my choice is a shared equity scam or a cannel boat. So with a good paid job and a 25% deposit I am priced out.
High prices are the issues not mortgage rates. If estate agents would get vendors to lower their prices it would increase transactions. Till then I will encourage my first time buyer friends to wait it out till prices are affordable.
George
So you really think house prices are going to double in 7 years? ;) I ask you as we have had the biggest property bubble ever furled by internationally low interest rates, mass fraud and reckless lending leading to a world wide near economic collapse. There simply isn't the money in the banks to support today's prices let alone double priced properties in 7 years. The near 0% interest rates are designed to discourage saving to plough it into the economy. Is everyone going to be suddenly save loads again to provide these doubling mortgage funds or are the banks going to go back to CDOs again lol.
I ask again where is money going to come from or as I believe you are just trying to scare us into buying for you own benefit.
Jonnie, I must admit i'm a little disappointed with the facetious response. I was looking forward to some intellectual cut-and-thrust. No matter.
Carol, thank you for your gracious offer but I must decline as I have my own IFA. Cheers for the Timothy/Mark insight; see i've already broadened my knowledge thanks to you.
George, with respect I suspect it's best you're not a financial advisor as that is some rather questionable 'advice' you're giving there. Suffice it to say, I will gracefully decline the offer.
Dear sweet Carol, it is so nice to have another Lady posting but;
Given that the average annual rent is approx 4.9421% of the average property price. It would require a sustained 5% reduction in property prices year on year on year on year to justify holding off buying.
As the trendline increase of property prices shows a historic 7 year doubling of prices there is never a genuinely sensible time to rent rather than buy. Other than when mobility is a higher priority than stability.
You can do all the maths you like but the simple rule of thumb is buy as soon as and often as you can.
How many of all those 20 and 30% negative equity cases from the early 90's price slump are still in negative equity? Exactly the same number of unsold properties bought by prattling pete and co! None.
SBC would do well to listen to some of the regular posters on here and simply get on with it
@SBC
Its non of my business but I would love to do some maths.
How about providing a post code area and whether you are a Timothy Lumsden or a Mark Corrigan (at home with mummy or renting with a mate)
Free of charge I will provide you with honest opinion whether you should buy now or wait based purely on cost and probability plus 30 years experience.
Love it Jonnie Love it! I was worth staying sober just for that one post!
PeeBee was right, I like you!
Sibley, I see, I think I owe you an apology mate.
There is some berk using your name on that weird HPC site, you should go and have a look, brilliant it is, loads of odd balls and smart arses whipping each other into a lather about prices falling, been going years apparently but get this, none of them have called it right yet…………..anyway, go have a look you wont believe it mate.
My story, well im just a humble estate agent, got my desk 6 ft away from the house buying public high street – not really in touch with what’s going on though, haven’t sold a house for weeks, average wage, cheap suit, not making any money and haven’t met anyone that wants to buy now for ages and round here prices are plummeting big time. If only these FTB’s would come off their strike then id be okay, but not good mate, not good at all.
Jonnie
6 years ago actually, but in my job I see people like Jack and Jill all the time. I realise that you can't be held accountable, and I am not for one moment suggesting that you should pay for mistakes that others have made, sorry if that's how it came across.
I just get SOOOOOO irritated by people trying to benefit at someone elses expense. If they bought at a reasonable price for the market then, and are looking to sell at a reasonable price for the market now, then I fail to understand why they should have their price slashed so dramatically, from a fair price in the first place, just so some greedy investor or FTB (not you, and not all of them) can make more of the profit they are 'entitled' to when they sell in the future.
Country Lass, I realise that as you bought recently it probably does strike you as unfair vis-a-vis my stance; and I fully appreciate that.
It may sound callous but I can't be held accountable for other peoples' circumstances if what I hope happens does happen (whether it does is purely educated guess-work).
Good afternoon Jonnie, I do enjoy a spot of sparring (as Peebee will attest):
1. When price indexes shift down a bit, why don’t you lot revise your forecast/ it’s always 40%, if prices drop 0.9% why don’t you make it 39.1%?
I don't believe i've ever forecasted drops of 40%. If you can find any proof of such, be my guest.
2. Why is it always a nice round number – sounds like you are making it up when you use round numbers but tell us
As per above. Although if you'd like me to insert a decimal point next time I make a projection i'll be more than happy to oblige.
3. Why do you keep changing the reasons for the crash in prices – for example, Government cuts weren’t an issue a couple of years back but you seem to take whatever is in the news / topical / suits your message?
You'll have to clarify. Do you mean why prices crashed in 08/09 or why I expect prices to fall again?
4. And the big one, clever lad like you, knows his onions so how come your powers of prediction didn’t allow you to bag your self a deal in the past when prices were rising?
If you refer to the 90% LTV Northern Rock thread, I gave PeeBee a brief synopsis which will answer your question. Suffice it to say, i'd rather buy in a falling market than a rising market.
5. And last one – as you have no interest in buying anytime soon why are you hanging around estate agents forum?
Oh, I will buy but not till Q4 2011 at the earliest. It may surpise you that I actually take interest in what EAs have to say both to get a better idea as to when I buy but also as a gauge for the wider property market.
What's your story?
Sibley, I think you are suffering from a touch of blind, well selfishness to be honest. Not purely on your case I hasten to add, but for all first time buyers.
Everyone pushing for prices to fall more seems to be either a FTB or BTL investor. Or an idiot, like someone we were talking to over the last few days. You are all saying that YOU want rpices t fall so YOU can afford to buy. What about the poor beggars that already own them? If it is an investor looking to make £20k with an Ikea kitchen, then yup, hack the price at the knees, I'll even lend you the sabre. But waht about a person similar to the one you are aspiring to be?
Imagine Jack and Jill Hill. They bought their lovely little 'starter' home, planning to stay for 6-7 years at least. Then a job change and an dodgy mussel puts paid to that, and suddenly they need to move areas and get something to fit their expanding family (and Jill's expanding stomach) So they put it on the market at a fair price, a few thousand above what they paid to be fair, but hey, they'll take offers.
And then all these nasty people start saying that prices need to fall by 40% so that THEY can purchase Jack's house cheaply!
Does that seem fair to you?
Brit1234 - in that case, you are probably looking for the 'wrong' type of property, or in the 'wrong' area.
I see people determined that they want a house, rather than a flat, just because they don't know if the neighbours will be noisy, or they don't know what the service charge will be next year.
I also see people determined to have a certain postcode, but unwilling to pay the price for it. If you want the swankiest area in the most expensive little village then of course the price will be high.
I do realise that you may have to have a property type, or a location for a reason, and if that finds you outside of your budget, then you have my sympathy. I had the same thing when I bought my first place. I wanted a house, with 2 reception rooms, a driveway (garage if possible) and a back garden. I wanted it on a nice new housing estate, close to the canals and wildlife filled marshlands in my area (Yes, as you can guess I did live out in the boondocks. They still have meetings in the village hall for Pete's sake)
What did I end up buying? A 2bedroom flat with one reception room, needing a new kitchen and bathroom, and the closest flora is the weeds growing in the carpark.
Humans adapt, it's what we have always done. If you have job concerns, then of course you should not look to purchase, I have too many repos on my books and don't want to risk yours becoming one of them.
However, if you are just waiting for your dream home, complete with butler, for half of nothing then it may be a long wait.
Okay, Sibleys thingey Child,
You don’t want to buy yet, you have no intention of gracing us agents with your presence anytime soon, you resolutely refuse to pay any attention to any news that’s positive, and like the negative news on prices / market / the economy, something I believe is referred to as ‘Bear Nibbles’ by some?
On top of this, you like many others are convinced that prices have 40% to drop and have been forecasting such a thing for ages...............so can you give some answers to the following;
1. When price indexes shift down a bit, why don’t you lot revise your forecast/ it’s always 40%, if prices drop 0.9% why don’t you make it 39.1%?
2. Why is it always a nice round number – sounds like you are making it up when you use round numbers but tell us
3. Why do you keep changing the reasons for the crash in prices – for example, Government cuts weren’t an issue a couple of years back but you seem to take whatever is in the news / topical / suits your message?
4. And the big one, clever lad like you, knows his onions so how come your powers of prediction didn’t allow you to bag your self a deal in the past when prices were rising?
5. And last one – as you have no interest in buying anytime soon why are you hanging around estate agents forum?
Jonnie
Absolutely AoS, I agree with much of what you wrote. It may not sit well with some but avarice isn't just restricted to vendors...
As for renting, it certainly galls me slightly that circumstances dictate that i'm at the behest of a BTL but one has to be sanguine about life. As for paying out rent, for some people it can work out well (generally, one can currently rent an equivalent home for far less than a repayment mortgage on a similar property) for others perhaps not.
I'm paying out 9.6k per annum on rent but the typical house in the area fell by a similar amount over the year. Ultimately - in my case - it's a gamble; if prices do fall another 10% then that's another 10-15k I won't have to borrow from the bank 'plus compound interest'.
"(I wasn't insinuating that you are not clever btw)"
Ha, not a problem at all; I only slightly bettered PeeBee's failed Maths O'Level so maybe not too far off the mark...
Back to article; as you say FTBs will still buy. It's a truism to suggest people are still buying and selling; albeit at modest amounts.
My guess is that if prices drift down, more FTBs will be able to buy, lenders won't be as prescriptive with ther lending criteria (if they don't fear delinquent loans due to negative equity) and transactions will go up again.
In the meantime, we'll just have this Mexican stand-off with low numbers of transactions either by buyers that can afford to move (sufficient equity) or have to move and vendors that either get close to asking or forced sales.
It's not a matter of scaling down Expectations we simply can' t afford to buy these overpriced bottom rung properties. Hence lots of us first time buyers are on socalled strike. I have a 25% deposit but I am holding off and so are my friends increasingly. With house prices visibly falling and job uncertantity we are holding and encouraging others to do so.
Sibley, I respect your comments.
I have seen so many 'average' FTB's witness the housing boom of the 90's and have it firmly inserted in their heads that they should be able to buy a property at xx and sell it for XXX in 3 years, with a nice slice of profit and a bottle of Veuve.
I'm not saying you are one of them, but that is a big trend amongst the older FTB.
In my expereince, 40% of FTB's have (always) asked what will it be worth in x years time? Straight away, they are not buying the property as a home, they have one eye on making a profit, for not doing an awful lot.
This mindset has got to change. If you can get a suitable mortgage and a property at a price you are happy with, then grab it. Forget what it will or won't be worth. If you decide not to, that is entirely your decision.
For those that do sit and wait, you can't deny the fact that it is costing you good money to do so. I know a guy who has been renting for 6 years, on average at £7k per year. He's never going to see that £42k again, in fact as we speak, he is contributing further to that, paying someone else's mortgage.
Buyers won't buy if it is too high, sellers won't sell if it is too low. We don't have a standstill just yet...50,000 transactions per month away from a stand still.
My argument has always been with 50,000 transactions per month currently, (just) coming out of a recession, I can't see them being as bad as the doom-mongers shout - certainly not the 40% - 60% figure that the HPC crew pick out of the air.
Granted volumes are lower than the peaks we have seen in previous years, but this is a consistent situation across many industries.
The addition of new mortgage options is only a good thing. Like I said earlier today, it WON'T suit everyone, but it will certainly get the ball rolling for others.
Sorry Sibley, my information was obviously out of date!
If you decide you want to wait until prices are 'sensible' then good for you, hopefully you wont wait too long. You are obviously in a position to do so, whereas not all FTB's are. And most of them are clever enough to realise that for a first property they will have to scale down their expectations and look for a cheaper property, rather than buy a place at the top of their budget.
(I wasn't insinuating that you are not clever btw)
Close Country Lass, but the average age of a FTB currently stands at 37 (without financial assistance from family etc).
With regards to the 'buyer's strike', this is one would-be-buyer that won't be buying until prices drift down to sensible levels. 'Innovative' mortgage products come a distinct second place to the amount of principal borrowed. Suffice it to say, I would rather pay 10% on 120k than 1% on 200k.
The average Timothy Lumsden is 37
EL S - No, I think the FTB 'strike' will last until they believe that they can safely afford to buy. People are making offers on property all the time now, even on rental, which is driving some people I know mental.
Once they have a sufficient deposit (or mortgage deal which means they can have a smaller deposit) they will view and offer on property, which the vendor make take, and move the market forward. Fortunately some people are understanding that a house is not a get-rich-quick option now, and are willing to buy somewhere and wait til the prices are better before they sell.
Because FTB's are getting older (I think the average age is 27 now) they are more wordly and have a better grasp of the future and haggling.
The first time buyers strike will remain till house prices are priced at more realistic levels. I see no optimism in the Market recovering. Things are starting to get grim with the austerity cuts and inflation. With high prices and people worried about their jobs I can't see transactions picking up instead may be fall further.
Keep up Ric!
That is the name of the Iraqi minister of information who denied there were Americans in Bagdad despite American tanks rolling up the road behind him
Totally agree with James and the more optomistic commentators on this one!
It aint all that bad!
As for Mohammed you suprise me at your lack of confidence but make me wonder if you are about to offer on one of those 40% over priced properties! If you get it, I would love to value it the month after for you....bet the market will rise 50% over night! TWO HATS AND ALL THAT!
Transaction levels were bonkers in 2006/2007
We need about another 20% higher transaction levels for a normalish market considering the economi times
With builders not building, and new instructions pegged back house prices will fluctuate from region to region by 10% either way this year, but will not fall by 40% unless interest rates leap by 5% to 10% in a short period as in the early 90's
90% LTV mortgages are available now (over 200 products out there) so that will help too
Tough but still selling good houses in good areas at reasonable values
'The Troll' has responded.....
I thought there was always some sort of spring bounce even in the worst years. I doubt there will be any sustainable recovery in the coming year. Prices have fallen this month again yet still far too costly for the public especially with coming wage cuts, existing wage freezes, higher inflation, rising unemployment and interest rate increases. The housing bubble needs to deflate before transactions return to normal.
JONNIE!
You bunch of negative miserable gits.....The minute theres an incling of good news look at the posts. I completly agree with James on this....I have seen a significant increase in activity since January (so nothing to do with the weather) from this time last year. Whats wrong guys? Struggling to sell houses? Not instructing enough? Chin up....things are definatly improving...look even the mortgage lenders are starting to plat ball.
"Move over HPC mob your time is up"
Actually James, I welcome an increase in activity. With transactions so low the indices (Halifax, LR, Nationwide, Hometrack et al) can only be taken with a pinch of salt.
If transactions return to, say, 60k per month and the indices are still showing -% then i'll be happy.
So, get out there and get those vendors motivated...
Oh, look out, he’s here, stumbling around like a drunk Glaswegian tramp repeating him self over and over same old drivel.
Its Realising ‘Mad Dog Mc Tavish’ Reality banging on the same old cobblers, so lets treat him like a tanked up vagrant and walk past, ignoring him……………
Jonnie
@F Fortescue-Smyth:
Do I detect a distinct change of tone from your HPC days of a short time ago!
There are no green shoots of activity. Those sold boards are just ones where the For Sale slip has blown off in the wind.
I repeat there are no shoots of recovery.
The Agency dogs will be defeated and prices will fall by 40%, mark my words, There are no green shoots!
.......................fly boards COUGH COUGH
We know of one directive down from the upper echelons to "fly" board both SOLD stc and LET on blocks of flats.
"I have just sold two houses this week for 15% above the prices the people paid three years ago, at the asking price in the first two weeks of marketing "
Itchy beard jackanory hype and BS are a few words that spring to mind.
Steady on chaps.
There's no doubt things have picked up a bit since the depths of winter (mainly because, duh, the winter is drawing to a close) but things are still way down on last year and the 2006-7 peak is a mist-shrouded thing shimmering in the far distance. Let's not get carried away.
What would be much more interesting than the playground chest beating/name calling is a discussion on what, exactly IS selling up and down the country.
What I'm seeing in my SE patch is (as you'd expect) that newly on, sensibly priced stock is getting interest and shifting before the still silly-priced, cobwebbed older stock. This is irrespective of property type. On the whole we are about 15-20% down on peak and a scrape above the 2009 bottom.
Given the trend of what sells and what doesn't, I think the market will dip lower again this year, not necessarily by huge amounts though (another 5-10% depending on property type).
A lot of people have had enough of putting lives on hold and not everyone is so re-mortgaged to the hilt as to need every last penny from the sale.
Lest anyone think this is gloomy I'm actually quite cheerful at the moment. Realistic sellers = more business.
Let's hope the green shoots aren't For Sale boards taking root because they have been up so long.
RR
I have just sold two houses this week for 15% above the prices the people paid three years ago, at the asking price in the first two weeks of marketing
Good houses in good areas are in demand
Poorer stock in less well thought of areas is being hit hard, and so are apartments - family houses in good condition are not being hit as hard
Move over HPC mob your time is up
(unless interest rates rise significantly that is)
RR: - You missed one VITAL question. Allow me...
6. How many of the sample were marketed and sold by PropertyMatch (UK)?
Silly you. Fancy forgetting THAT ONE! You missed an opportunity to insert your site name!
Lucky I am watching over you, innit? ;0)
RR - You ARE alive. How wonderful.
Care to pop back over to the previous debate and answer my question now?
Dear we are selling,
Are you having to reduce all selling prices to 60% of their asking price!
I didn't think so!
FEEEED THE TROLL! I want to see him explode like the chap in the meaning of life
WARNING: DO NOT FEED THE TROLL
Hello We are Selling,
To help with resolving conflicting comments on another story, would you please be so kind as to give us some statistics identifying:
1. Average initial appraisal price.
2. Average sold (STC) price, for the same sample.
3. Average length of time from initial instruction to final terms agreed, for the same sample.
4. Date the first house taken on, and the date the last house was solicitor instructed.
5. The size of the sample (number of houses).
Thanks in advance of your help.
We have has a very good January and February for residential sales, I would say that Agency Express comments above are totally correct.